Boxing at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[Totallympics 58]

[Ogreman 278]

https://boxing.athlete365.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Seeding_Final_short_V2.pdf

 

Olympic seeding is out. Draw was random for the continental champions with either Africa or Oceania gauranteed to be seeded 5th so whether a boxer is seeded 1st 3rd or 4th doesn't matter, what does matter is the boxer that is opposite them in a hypothethical quarter final and semi final although given the quality of unseeded boxers in most of these divisions we won't see that many of these potential matchups. Silver medallists from Europe, Africa and Asia randomly seeded 6th, 7th or 8th. In some of these weightclasses like M71kg all being seeded really does is gaurantee you a bye into the last 16.

[dodge 906]

Some pacific number one seeds in there. lol

[NearPup 2,380]

Probably would have been fine to have an unseeded draw…

[Pasolini 232]

3 hours ago, Ogreman said:

https://boxing.athlete365.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Seeding_Final_short_V2.pdf

 

Olympic seeding is out. Draw was random for the continental champions with either Africa or Oceania gauranteed to be seeded 5th so whether a boxer is seeded 1st 3rd or 4th doesn't matter, what does matter is the boxer that is opposite them in a hypothethical quarter final and semi final although given the quality of unseeded boxers in most of these divisions we won't see that many of these potential matchups. Silver medallists from Europe, Africa and Asia randomly seeded 6th, 7th or 8th. In some of these weightclasses like M71kg all being seeded really does is gaurantee you a bye into the last 16.

So, just to be clear, this is the final seeding?

1-8
4-5
3-6
2-7

According to this video http://boxing.athlete365.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Official-Draw-and-Seeding-procedure_L_sub_en.mp4 

 

[phelps 7,437]

4 hours ago, NearPup said:

Probably would have been fine to have an unseeded draw…

way better no seed at all

 

those pairings are a farce (even if I appreciate that  La Cruz is not going vs  Mouhiidine until the GMM...you know, the old lion might still be dangerous, especially when still fresh in the early rounds)

[Josh 7,845]

 

3 hours ago, Pasolini said:

So, just to be clear, this is the final seeding?

1-8
4-5
3-6
2-7

According to this video http://boxing.athlete365.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Official-Draw-and-Seeding-procedure_L_sub_en.mp4 

Well I don’t follow boxing, but I’m pretty sure both of the Canadians draws are good. 
 

Sanford would take on Martinez Ramirez in the quarterfinals, which he should win but maybe not, and then it’ll start to get tough with a semifinal against Oumiha/Garside.

 

Thibeault would take on Michel in the quarterfinals (assuming no suspicious decisions by the refs because she’s a “French athlete”, she should win), and either O’Rourke/Bylon (she handily beat Bylon 5-0 in the gold medal match at the Pan Am Games)

[Ogreman 278]

	Seeded Boxers	Unseeded Boxers	Seeded percentage
Australia	12	0	100.0
Brazil	9	1	90.0
China	7	1	87.5
France	5	3	62.5
Thailand	4	4	50.0
USA	4	4	50.0
Algeria	4	1	80.0
Uzbekistan	3	8	27.3
Ireland	3	7	30.0
Turkey	3	5	37.5
Chinese Taipei	3	3	50.0
Cuba	3	2	60.0
Colombia	3	2	60.0
Bulgaria	3	2	60.0
Nigeria	3	0	100.0
Kazakhstan	2	8	20.0
Mexico	2	2	50.0
Serbia	2	1	66.7
Egypt	2	1	66.7
Morocco	2	1	66.7
North Korea	2	0	100.0
Canada	2	0	100.0
Italy	1	7	12.5
India	1	5	16.7
Great Britain and NI	1	5	16.7
Spain	1	5	16.7
Azerbaijan	1	4	20.0
Philippines	1	4	20.0
Tajikistan	1	2	33.3
Ukraine	1	2	33.3
Belgium	1	2	33.3
Ecuador	1	2	33.3
Dominican Republic	1	2	33.3
Refugee team	1	1	50.0
Georgia	1	1	50.0
Croatia	1	0	100.0
Zambia	1	1	50.0
Romania	1	0	100.0
Denmark	1	0	100.0
Panama	1	0	100.0
Samoa	1	0	100.0
Tunisia	1	0	100.0
Poland	0	5	0.0
Hungary	0	3	0.0
Jordan	0	3	0.0
Mozambique	0	3	0.0
Venezuela	0	2	0.0
Puerto Rico	0	2	0.0
Mongolia	0	2	0.0
Japan	0	2	0.0
Sweden	0	2	0.0
Germany	0	2	0.0
Norway	0	2	0.0
South Korea	0	2	0.0
Vietnam	0	2	0.0
DR Congo	0	2	0.0
Cape Verde	0	2	0.0
Armenia	0	1	0.0
Netherlands	0	1	0.0
Finland	0	1	0.0
Kyrgyzstan	0	1	0.0
Kosovo	0	1	0.0
Slovakia	0	1	0.0
Haiti	0	1	0.0
Mali	0	1	0.0
North Macedonia	0	1	0.0
Tonga	0	1	0.0
Palestine	0	1	0.0

 

So look first of all any seeding is better than no seeding. It just minimizes some of the potential volatility of the draw

In this case seeding doesn't doesn't matter that much and in many cases the only major difference between being seeded or not is being gauranteed a bye but this particular approach of seeding being based on the continental qualifers hurts European boxers the most as well as countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and India that struggled at continental championships. Despite qualifying 4 at European games Italy are the "worst" effected by this seeding system as only Mouhiidine  made the European final. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan with 8 unseeded boxers along with Ireland and Italy on 7 in theory would have the most to gain if these draws weren't seeded and they could simply allow their depth to ensure they got some good draws. In theory Australia are the big winners from this system but in practice for most of their boxers getting a bye only increases the chance they lose their first fight and their biggest male medal hopes got tough brackets with Tokyo medallist Harry Garside  and Teremoana Jnr  having potential quarter finals against former Olympic champions Sofiane Oumiha  and Bakhodir Jalolov . These brackets definitely help W75kg Caitlin Parker's  chances though and opens the door ajar for the likes of Monique Suraci .

	W50kg	W54kg	W57kg	W60kg	W66kg	W75kg	M51kg	M57kg	M63.5kg	M71kg	M80kg	M92kg	M92+kg	Total percentage
Estimated number of seeded boxers who actually rank in top 8 of their weightclass.	5	4	5	6	5	6	4	4	5	3	5	4	6	59.62%

 

So in terms of the actual impact of this seeding, they make a difference but not that much. M71kg basically only matters for bye purposes. Divisions like W60kg, W75kg and M92+kg matters more as an unseeded now has a pretty good chance of having to beat 2 of the top 8 boxers in the division to make the medals. The important thing and the purpose of these seeds is they make the chance an unseeded doesn't have to beat any of the top 8 boxers to win a medal very slim. (Not sure I explained what I wanted to explain particularly well but sure look.)

[Ogreman 278]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

Well I don’t follow boxing, but I’m pretty sure both of the Canadians draws are good. 
 

Sanford would take on Martinez Ramirez in the quarterfinals, which he should win but maybe not, and then it’ll start to get tough with a semifinal against Oumiha/Garside.

 

Thibeault would take on Michel in the quarterfinals (assuming no suspicious decisions by the refs because she’s a “French athlete”, she should win), and either O’Rourke/Bylon (she handily beat Bylon 5-0 in the gold medal match at the Pan Am Games)

Ye, Wyatt Sanford got a good draw with at least on paper Miguel Ramirez  being an easier draw than Harry Garside , Bunjong Sinsiri  or Lasha Guruli  although the easiest possible draw was the 12.5% chance of getting Jugurtha Ait Bekka . Then again there is a lot of quality left amongst the unseeded boxers so I wouldn't be plotting Sanford's path to the final just yet.

 

Tammara Thibeault  got an okay draw. Davina Michel  is fine apart from as you mentioned her being at home. Aoife O'Rourke  also has a comfortable win against Atheyna Bylon  from 2022 and has also beaten Qian Li  and Lovlina Borgohain  at Strandja this year so on paper could be the toughest potential matchup for Thibeault although that was definitely a matchup I was hoping we wouldn't see until the final and could prove the difference between a silver and a bronze for O'Rourke although I would be more than satisfied with any medal of course. Cindy Ngamba  is lurking somewhere in the draw as well.

 

This gives me a good excuse to talk about the other Irish boxers as well. Kellie Harrington  got as tough a bracket as possible with a potential quarter final against world silver medallist Angie Valdes  followed by a potential rematch of the Tokyo Olympic final against world champion Beatriz Ferreira . Obviously Kellie won in Tokyo but will need to back in that kind of form to get back to an Olympic final. I think she will be though.

 

Jack Marley  got a better initial draw avoiding potential quarter final matchups with Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine  or Julio Cesar la Cruz  being seeded in the same bracket as Davlat Boltaev  although it would be somewhat of a surprise if they both won their first fight given the quality of the unseeded boxers is roughly equivalent to the seeded ones at heavyweight.

[dodge 906]

I think the most important point you make is that in every weight category there are several boxers who are better than some of the seeds. Everyone will still need a little luck with their draw