Wrestling UWW American Olympic Qualifier 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[MHSN 3,333]

taking a look at freestyle draw first

 

57kg, balanced draw, surprisingly no cuban wrestler

in top half four guys has a realistic chance COL, VEN, CAN and MEX. I think RBY from MEX and Tigreros will wrestle for the quota.

there are 2 or 3 NCAA wrestlers in bottom half but I think it will be PUR vs USA in the final. Richards won't be happy to face Cruz in the SF. but still my picks 

 

65kg, still balanced draw

Nick Lee is the weakest member of US freestyle team, still good enough for the quota. I think only Gomez (MEX) might be able to threaten him. just maybe

the QF match between ARG and CUB will most probably decide the quota. I would have picked Destribats but he was terrible few days ago and almost lost to Bahamian wrestler (American though) I think Valdes has the upper hand since he didn't wrestle last weekend. BAH guy is here, another NCAA wrestler, might have a very small chance. my picks 

 

74kg

This weight is wide open with no clear favorite in both sides. but there are some NCAA wrestlers representing other countries. I'm not familiar with some of them, they might be very good. in a normal day I would pick Garzon without hesitation but he was terrible last weekend. he lost to a guy who later lost to this DOM  guy. so on paper DOM should be the favorite, still when it comes to the Olympics, Cubans wrestle differently. also can't write off this guy from URU, I believe he is American too

at the bottom I think the winner comes from the last quarter, CAN, PUR or VEN. my picks 

 

86kg, I can see 6 guys with a chance and 4 of them is in the bottom half

I think top half will be decided between COL and PUR. I think Ramos has more chance because the Colombian wrestled in Pan-Am Champs last weekend

at the bottom half, Moore (CAN) has an easy route to the SF but there are 3 clear favorites in the 4th quarter. it's really hard to pick one between these 3 and Moore also has a good chance because he hast to beat only one of them. Valencia (MEX) is the brother of American Zahid Valencia but since he is new into this weight, my picks are 

 

97kg

top half is much much easier, I think it will be between VEN and DOM, hard to compare them, it looks 50/50

the Cuban guy is the favorite but he wrestled last weekend and had a good match vs Kyle Snyder. which might give a chance to Randhawa (CAN) and maybe Lacey (CRC). my picks 

 

125kg

I barely even know anybody from the top half. it's PUR's quota to lose, I just saw he beat the HON wrestler only 2-1 last weekend, so there is a chance for HON's quota. maybe at least

Amar Dheshi is a head and shoulder better but he didn't wrestle much recently (injury maybe?). I'm not really aware of his current shape. still he has to win 3 not-so-easy matches to qualify. American guy of Jamaica, the old guy from VEN and the Cuban (the worst of the Cuban team). my picks 

 

I know I gave too much credit to Cuban wrestlers. I mostly rate them high because of their past.  their freestyle program is somehow dead. I don't think they are going to win 4 quotas with 5 wrestlers. 

 

[intoronto 4,463]

2 minutes ago, MHSN said:

 

 

125kg

I barely even know anybody from the top half. it's PUR's quota to lose, I just saw he beat the HON wrestler only 2-1 last weekend, so there is a chance for HON's quota. maybe at least

Amar Dheshi is a head and shoulder better but he didn't wrestle much recently (injury maybe?). I'm not really aware of his current shape. still he has to win 3 not-so-easy matches to qualify. American guy of Jamaica, the old guy from VEN and the Cuban (the worst of the Cuban team). my picks 

 

I know I gave too much credit to Cuban wrestlers. I mostly rate them high because of their past.  their freestyle program is somehow dead. I don't think they are going to win 4 quotas with 5 wrestlers. 

 

Dhesi was injured, he pulled out every event last year.

[MHSN 3,333]

5 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Dhesi was injured, he pulled out every event last year.

I assumed that

 

still even a 50% Dehsi should qualify easily

[MHSN 3,333]

and Greco , but keep in mind Greco is less predictable because it's not only about technique, you can win matches by just being very strong physically

 

60kg

I think Rodriguez (VEN) will benefit a lot from being the top seed. he has an easy road to the quota. he will face MEX and probably COL. won't be a huge surprise if he loses to any of these guys. I'm not familiar with the Mexican wrestler but he is probably somehow good.

the QF match between CUB and Hafizov determines the quota. Hafizov who is 36 beat the Cuban at the Pan-Am Games final but he is getting older, Cubans are always dangerous ... for a change this time I don't pick the Cuban, so 

 

67kg

on paper it looks easy for Sancho (USA) but he beat the Chilean guy narrowly last weekend, so there is a chance for an upset maybe ?

in bottom half I expect ECU and COL battling for the quota in the SF, Montano is a bit old, he used to be very good. he beat Hora 2-1 last weekend, kind of interesting that it's possible to have exactly the same semifinals this weekend ! I think the same guys win again 

 

77kg, this is the most interesting weight, most of the favorites wrestled last weekend and we had some surprising results

in top half I think Pena (CUB) and Joilson (BRA) will decide the quota, the Brazilan surprised Pena and pinned him few days ago, that can happen again but I think Pena learned his lesson.

at the bottom half we have the biggest name of all, the great Arsen Julfalakyan who just decided to wrestle for Argentina ! at the age of 36 he wrestled in a tournament few weeks ago and did OK (not great though) he will face Kamal Bey, the best American Greco talent in the QF and most probably either VEN or COL in the SF. any of those 4 guys can win the quota. it will be interesting to know that Cuero (COL) beat Kamal Bey last weekend. still I think that was just an accident. Bey is a very good wrestler. he is explosive, can score against anybody but can also lose big points against anybody. my picks 

 

87kg

I doubt anybody beats Daniel Gregorich in the top half. still Woods (USA) might be a challenge for him

in bottom half I see COL and VEN in the SF wrestling for the quota but Vargas (MEX) won the quota last time (didn't go to the Olympics though) I think maybe he has a chance too. I say 

 

97kg, with Cuba already qualified it's a great chance for the rest
Kevin Mejia is 99% locked for the quota. I can't see him losing unless some accidents happen

for the bottom half, I think USA and VEN decide the quota. Vera (USA) won 5-3 last weekend, so I say 

 

130kg, different format since we have only 6 wrestlers

I think it's very clear that only 4 guys are wrestling for 2 quotas, all 4 of them will advance from their groups to meet in the SF. Acosta is very boring and annoying but he can gets the job done by 1-1 or 2-1. Schultz can throw anybody. I think these 2 guys will qualify but Perez (VEN) and Soghomyan (BRA) can do something. but still most probably 

Edited February 28 by MHSN

[heywoodu 13,629]

5 hours ago, MHSN said:

130kg, different format since we have only 6 wrestlers

I think it's very clear that only 4 guys are wrestling for 2 quotas, all 4 of them will advance from their groups to meet in the SF. Acosta is very boring and annoying but he can gets the job done by 1-1 or 2-1. Schultz can throw anybody. I think these 2 guys will qualify but Perez (VEN) and Soghomyan (BRA) can do something. but still most probably 

Unsurprisingly I'm a couple of years behind, but I assume this means I'll have to let go of my hope to see Mijain Lopez compete again?  

[MHSN 3,333]

5 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Unsurprisingly I'm a couple of years behind, but I assume this means I'll have to let go of my hope to see Mijain Lopez compete again?  

 yes. more  than a couple of years. Cuba already qualified the weight at the 2023 Worlds

 

Oscar Pino won the bronze and qualified the weight. Lopez still plans to go to Paris. but the last thing I heard from him, his preparation didn't go as planned and he had to skip the Pan-Am Games

 

I don't think they send Lopez right away anyway. he has to beat Pino (who is very good too) to earn his place in Paris.

[MHSN 3,333]

no Olympics for Arsen Julfalakyan, at least not here (and I highly doubt he can qualify from the last qualifier)

 

he had his chances twice, he had Kemal Bey lifted on to the air for a 4pts throw but for some reasons didn't throw him. I think some injury happened to his leg. 

Edited February 28 by MHSN

[Josh 6,690]

Greco-Roman Semifinals (2 OQPs in each weightclass)

60kg

 Raiber Rodriguez v.  Dicther Toro Castaneda

 Yerony Carreras v.  Kevin Yuran Rodriguez

 

67kg

 Alejandro Sancho v.  Nestor Truyol

 Julian Horta v.  Andres Montano

 

77kg

Yosvanys Pena v.  Joilson Junior

 Jair Cuero Muñoz v. Kamal Bey 

 

87kg

 Daniel Gregorich v.  Spencer Woods

 Carlos Muñoz v. Luis Avendaño

 

97kg

 Kevin Mejia v.  Carlos Alberto Palmer

Luillys Pérez v.  Alan Vera

 

130kg

 Colton Schultz v.  Moises Pérez

 Yasmani Acosta v.  Eduard Soghomonyan

[Benolympique 1,868]

[MHSN 3,333]

we had no upset in the first session. even not a single real surprise! 

 

but there were two close/important matches and both of them didn't went the way I was expecting. CUB beating USA at 60kg and Julfalakyan losing to K. Bey. there were supposed to be 50/50 matches, so no real surprise here too. hope to see some in the afternoon session