Athletics at the Summer Olympic Games 2016

[OlympicsFan 860]

  On 7/14/2016 at 4:21 PM, EselTheDonkey said:

 

To use heywoodu's system (roughly):

 

Krause: chance 25%

Roleder: 25%

4x100m Men: 5%

4x100m Women: 15%

Linke: 5%

Jungfleisch: 10% 

Holzdeppe: 10% (hoping, that he finds his shape)

Ryzih/Strutz: 5%

Moguenara: 20%

Heß: 25%

Schwanitz: 90%

Storl: 65%

R. Harting: 70%

C. Harting: 20%

Müller: 20%

Fischer: 25%

Craft: 10%

Heidler: 55%

Stahl: 30%

Obergföll: 15%

Hussong: 15%

Röhler: 65%

Vetter: 15%

Weber: 10%

Schäfer: 20%

Kazmirek: 5%

Abele: 35%

Someone else: 5%

 

makes 715 points = 7 medals

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Storl, Schwanitz, R.Harting, Roleder, Krause, Holzdeppe, Heß, Fischer, Heidler, Hussong, Röhler, Vetter and Abele all have at least a 50% chance to win a medal in my opinion. Our womens 4x100m relay, Moguenara, C.Harting, Stahl, Weber and Schäfer all have at least a 25% chance to win a medal in my opinion. That adds up to at least 8 medals. 

Ryzih, Gierisch/Elbe, Linke, Jungfleisch, our mens 4x100m relay, Müller, Tesfaye, Obergföll, Kazmirek and Onnen all have about a 10% chance for a medal, so this would add up to 9 medals at least. 7 medals would be very disappointing in my opinion, in the last 20 years or so we have never been better in athletics.

[EselTheDonkey 825]

I gave Holzdeppe much less points than I would have otherwise because of his injury. I agree that Holzdeppe in shape has a much higher chance to win a medal, but sadly he hasn't been fit this season.

[heywoodu 15,357]

  On 7/14/2016 at 5:52 PM, EselTheDonkey said:

I gave Holzdeppe much less points than I would have otherwise because of his injury. I agree that Holzdeppe in shape has a much higher chance to win a medal, but sadly he hasn't been fit this season.

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Personally I would put Krause lower than 25%, whereas I think I would put Jungfleisch higher and probably Moguenara as well. To come up with heptathlon/decathlon predictions I usually look at the top-15/20 athletes in both events and see what kind of total they can get based on recent results/perfomances at major championships, so it's hard to say how I'd rate them yet since I haven't done that yet  

 

At least you have basically 5 athletes who all have around 50% (or more) chance to win a medal, which is definitely better than us

Then again, it's of course not like the Netherlands and Germany have ever been rivals in athletics, I doubt we'll ever come close since we're still just a small nation even though this time we have 2-3 serious medal chances. 

[JoshMartini007 2,572]

Overall I'm hoping for about 4 medals for Canada. Our performance at the World Champs was an almost best case scenario for Canada and I doubt we'll see it again here (if we do succeed we'll easily meet our target of 19 medals). We have bunch of athletes that will finish in the top 8, hopefully we won't fall into the 4th place curse.

[james89 875]

  On 7/14/2016 at 6:31 PM, JoshMartini007 said:

Overall I'm hoping for about 4 medals for Canada. Our performance at the World Champs was an almost best case scenario for Canada and I doubt we'll see it again here (if we do succeed we'll easily meet our target of 19 medals). We have bunch of athletes that will finish in the top 8, hopefully we won't fall into the 4th place curse.

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Exactly! Generally this Canadian curse also comes from having so much pressure on a couple of athletes that they falter the Olympics. I really do wonder if having more athletes with that potential sees Canada do better overall. I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks. I am expecting 3 medals from Athletics, but the 4-5 range is likely.

[JoshMartini007 2,572]

  On 7/14/2016 at 6:39 PM, james89 said:

 

Exactly! Generally this Canadian curse also comes from having so much pressure on a couple of athletes that they falter the Olympics. I really do wonder if having more athletes with that potential sees Canada do better overall. I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks. I am expecting 3 medals from Athletics, but the 4-5 range is likely.

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Athletics is in the second half so if Canada has a good/decent first week it may relax them. The pressure will also be on Brianne to medal in heptathlon (unless we get another surprise medal in the 20km walk), which I hope will settle everyone regardless.

[juddy96 171]

  On 7/14/2016 at 6:47 PM, JoshMartini007 said:

 

Athletics is in the second half so if Canada has a good/decent first week it may relax them. The pressure will also be on Brianne to medal in heptathlon (unless we get another surprise medal in the 20km walk), which I hope will settle everyone regardless.

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Well in the last few years our 20km walk national record has switched hands between the three of them and it seems that one is always near the top of the pile. Would be awesome to see one of our trio get an Olympic medal, they are some of the most humble and funny guys on the entirety of Team Canada

[heywoodu 15,357]

  On 7/14/2016 at 6:49 PM, juddy96 said:

 

Well in the last few years our 20km walk national record has switched hands between the three of them and it seems that one is always near the top of the pile. Would be awesome to see one of our trio get an Olympic medal, they are some of the most humble and funny guys on the entirety of Team Canada

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I'd gladly give up a Dutch medal to see Evan Dunfee medal in Rio  

[juddy96 171]

  On 7/14/2016 at 6:53 PM, heywoodu said:

I'd gladly give up a Dutch medal to see Evan Dunfee medal in Rio  

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Well yes it's almost impossible to dislike our race walkers unless you are Russian or Alex Schwazer

[bestmen 2,833]

  On 7/14/2016 at 6:53 PM, heywoodu said:

I'd gladly give up a Dutch medal to see Evan Dunfee medal in Rio  

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your medal becomes bleu  , there are  many surprises from Sindo

 

Edited July 14, 2016 by bestmen