Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[OlympicIRL 5,525]

7 hours ago, Nish said:

Predication for NZ by Gracenote seemed bit off as usual. 
 

I’d say 22-25 is a possibility 

 

Athletics: 2 to 3 - Kerr for High Jump, Walsh for shotput and McCartney for pole vault.

 

Canoeing - 1 Slalom (Luuka Jones for KX), 4 x for Sprint (K1 500 - 2 Fisher and Carrington, K2 500 Carrington & Hoskins, K4 500) 5 in total

 

Rugby 7s - Both men’s and women’s. 2

 

Cycling - Track - 6 (W Keirin, W Sprint, W Omnium, W Team Sprint, M Madison and M Omnium). Mountain Biking - Sam Gaze - 7 in total 

 

Rowing - 4 (both men’s and women’s single sculls, men’s 4s, women’s 4s)

 

Triathlon - 1 for Wilde 

 

Golf - Ko for women’s 

 

Swimming - 2 Clareburt and Fairweather 1 x each

 

Equestrian - 1 x for team eventing or atleast individual for Tim Price 

 

Sailing - 3 outside chances but it really depends on their day. 

 

Trampoline - maybe if Dylan delivers 2022 WC again

 

 

 

45 minutes ago, Josh said:

I don’t think so. They said “Clareburt 2 and 1x Fairweather each”

Nah he said Swimming 2 and that Clareburt and Fairweather would each get one.

[Nish 7]

6 hours ago, TeamGB said:

@Nish

 

Who's right?

You are correct as I meant 2 in swimming. I meant 1 for Clareburt (most likely 400m IM as he has the fastest time this year) and 1 for Fairweather (either 200m or 400m FS)

Edited May 20 by Nish

[dantm 32]

Fairweather may sneak a medal in the 400m Free but she is up it against Titmus,Ledecky and McIntosh.

She beat McIntosh for 3rd back in 2023 and it could happen again. If not,then McIntosh will be challenging Titmus and Ledecky with Fairweather in 4th/5th

 

For the 200m Freestyle, I think her chances pretty slim

I am not sure how she will be ahead of 

Mollie O'Callaghan

Ariane Titmus

Siobhon Haughey

Summer McIntosh (if she decides to race it)

There will be two Americans around 1.55 or lower.

 

It will need a 1.53 Mid or lower to medal and Fairweather's best is 1.55.4

 

 

As for Clareburt,

No one is beating Leon Marchand.

Carson Forster (USA) has been 4.06

Clareburt may fight for Bronze with the 2nd American, Litchfield and both Japanese qualifiers

 

 

[dullard 692]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Clareburt get down to 4:06 and challenge for silver given he was 4:08 at an in season meet.

[canadafan2024 131]

Canada Gracenote predictions from CBC Olympics:

 

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/the-buzzer-newsletter-canada-medal-prediction-olympics-1.7253561

[orangeman 1,979]

50 minutes ago, canadafan2024 said:

Canada Gracenote predictions from CBC Olympics:

 

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/the-buzzer-newsletter-canada-medal-prediction-olympics-1.7253561

That forecast is extremely pessimistic. McIntosh not podiuming in the 400 or 200 IM stands out, but some other odd choices. 20 medals would be incredibly disappointing, imo. 

Edited July 4 by orangeman

[RussB 189]

On 5/20/2024 at 6:07 AM, dantm said:

Fairweather may sneak a medal in the 400m Free but she is up it against Titmus,Ledecky and McIntosh.

She beat McIntosh for 3rd back in 2023 and it could happen again. If not,then McIntosh will be challenging Titmus and Ledecky with Fairweather in 4th/5th

 

For the 200m Freestyle, I think her chances pretty slim

I am not sure how she will be ahead of 

Mollie O'Callaghan

Ariane Titmus

Siobhon Haughey

Summer McIntosh (if she decides to race it)

There will be two Americans around 1.55 or lower.

 

It will need a 1.53 Mid or lower to medal and Fairweather's best is 1.55.4

 

 

As for Clareburt,

No one is beating Leon Marchand.

Carson Forster (USA) has been 4.06

Clareburt may fight for Bronze with the 2nd American, Litchfield and both Japanese qualifiers

 

 

Max will be in the mix for a medal, set a new BR at trials with a 4m 09 and can only imagine he goes faster in Paris. He has come 4th 2 Olympics in a row, surely he can’t come 4th again. Surely 🤣

[Faramir 358]

 

28 minutes ago, orangeman said:

That forecast is extremely pessimistic. McIntosh not podiuming in the 400 or 200 IM stands out, but some other odd choices. 20 medals would be incredibly disappointing, imo. 

They sell it as a forecast to be more attractive for the media but Gracenote's VMT is not a real forecast, they only take previous international (WCH, World Cups) results and weigh them. There is no way any algorithm of this kind could result in McIntosh being top 3 in those events.

 

Most likely the only thing they added is a big boost to French athletes.

 

 

Edited July 4 by Faramir

[Faramir 358]

Finally found a website where you can see for free Gracenote's VMT with details of all countries:

https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/jeux-olympiques/tableau-des-medailles/

[Ted 140]

7 minutes ago, Faramir said:

Finally found a website where you can see for free Gracenote's VMT with details of all countries:

https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/jeux-olympiques/tableau-des-medailles/

Been looking for this for ages. Thanks a million! 😊