Rowing WR World Championships 2023 Road to Paris 2024

[dodge 808]

Boat spots won at the final regatta in 2021

 

4  

3  

2  

1  

 

New Zealand, mentioned above, qualified their men's eight.  Lithuania got the men's quad when (not) Russia had a doping violation

[dodge 808]

And medals won by crews who qualified at the final regatta

 

GOLD

 mens eight

 

SILVER

 women's pair

 

BRONZE

 men's pair

 women's quad

 women's four

 women's eight

[Noorderling29 128]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dutch coaches decide not to enter any boats. There are 4 events without a Dutch quota. It seems unlikely they will be able to find competitive LDS. There was no Dutch W8 in Belgrade, and one could only be formed through having athletes enter in two events. So it really depends on the schedule in Paris and the willingness of the coaches to take risks on double starts. If they do, it would inevitably be a very competitive boat, consisting of more than a few current World Champions in other boats. Remains the MSS. I think it’s anyone’s guess, but if competitive rowers were available, they would have started in Belgrade. This was clearly the odds and ends boat, without any real expectation of success.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Noorderling29

[OlympicsFan 791]

5 hours ago, Noorderling29 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dutch coaches decide not to enter any boats. There are 4 events without a Dutch quota. It seems unlikely they will be able to find competitive LDS. There was no Dutch W8 in Belgrade, and one could only be formed through having athletes enter in two events. So it really depends on the schedule in Paris and the willingness of the coaches to take risks on double starts. If they do, it would inevitably be a very competitive boat, consisting of more than a few current World Champions in other boats. Remains the MSS. I think it’s anyone’s guess, but if competitive rowers were available, they would have started in Belgrade. This was clearly the odds and ends boat, without any real expectation of success.

Very good point. It should be easier to compete in multiple events. It would decrease the number of athletes. Maybe they should go from heats straight to the final. No reason why one athlete should be able to win multiple medals in canoeing, swimming or biathlon, but not in rowing.

Edited September 13, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[avlar 194]

On 9/12/2023 at 4:30 AM, Mateus Nagime said:

 

But in the meantime, their quotas are secured, as it's fair to be, since the athletes won (if they are allowed or not to participate is another matter, but since they are, they should be able to earn their quotas).

 

 

No, participation in the tournament does not provide the right to be qualified. For example, RPO athletes at the European Shotgun Championships recently. One of them got enough points to get place in final and fightt for quota. But was not eligible to qualify according to the regulations. The same applies to russians and belorussians in our case. They were allowed to participate but not to qualify.

 

On 9/12/2023 at 4:30 AM, Mateus Nagime said:

What I'm still struggling to understand is if Russian and Belarus will count as "one team" in the matters of quota. In Tennis rankings for instance (could 6 russians and 6 belarussians go or 6 in total? could russia and belarus form a pair?). 

 

According to actual rules pairs are not allowed at all. They will be counted separately. But!!

 

I doubt they will have full squads since tennis players have to take part id Davis Cup / Billie Jean King Cup competitions in 2023/2024 to be qligible.

 

 

 

There are some exceptions. But I doubt they will use all their "wild cards" for russians and bellorussians.

 

 

Sorry for late responce.

 

 

 

 

[Pasolini 160]

52 minutes ago, avlar said:

 

No, participation in the tournament does not provide the right to be qualified. For example, RPO athletes at the European Shotgun Championships recently. One of them got enough points to get place in final and fightt for quota. But was not eligible to qualify according to the regulations. The same applies to russians and belorussians in our case. They were allowed to participate but not to qualify.

 

According to actual rules pairs are not allowed at all. They will be counted separately. But!!

 

I doubt they will have full squads since tennis players have to take part id Davis Cup / Billie Jean King Cup competitions in 2023/2024 to be qligible.

 

 

 

There are some exceptions. But I doubt they will use all their "wild cards" for russians and bellorussians.

 

 

Sorry for late responce.

 

 

 

 

hey, mate, no worries.

 

In the end we have no clue what will be made of hahaha

 

but i am "saving" the quota for Belarus on my notes and I guess if the quota is not to Belarus, probably it will be used as a "Reallocation" case.

 

It could have been the first Belarus quota, as Russia has already some OQT in athletics (to be seen if they will be valid...)

 

Regarding the tennis, the same scenario... The Davis Cup/BJK thing in the end is a big bull**** used to punish athletes who are in dispute with their federations. It was hardly used in Tokyo/Rio. The athletes from Russia and Belarus would claim that their team was not allowed, so therefore they could not commit to their teams. I'm sure this will not be a decider for that.

[Grassmarket 2,820]

On 9/13/2023 at 11:37 AM, Rafa Maciel said:

That's not quite correct - New Zealand sent and won the Men's Eight at the FQR.

NZ’s usual rule in all sports is Top 8 at a World Championships or watch it on TV, I think.

[Grassmarket 2,820]

On 9/13/2023 at 11:47 AM, Noorderling29 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dutch coaches decide not to enter any boats. There are 4 events without a Dutch quota. It seems unlikely they will be able to find competitive LDS. There was no Dutch W8 in Belgrade, and one could only be formed through having athletes enter in two events. So it really depends on the schedule in Paris and the willingness of the coaches to take risks on double starts. If they do, it would inevitably be a very competitive boat, consisting of more than a few current World Champions in other boats. Remains the MSS. I think it’s anyone’s guess, but if competitive rowers were available, they would have started in Belgrade. This was clearly the odds and ends boat, without any real expectation of success.

Romania always double up at every event, bur they are the only regular medal-winning nation that train for it.  Some others might do it in an emergency qualification situation, as we did with the women’s eight last week.

[Noorderling29 128]

In the 2022 World Champs the silver winning Dutch W8 was formed by rowers double starting. But it’s certainly not a regular event.

[Ogreman 222]

On 9/8/2023 at 11:24 AM, Ogreman said:

					Form rankings
	M1X	W1X	M2-	W2-	M2X	W2X	LM2X	LW2X	M4-	W4-	M4X	W4X	M8+	W8+
1	GER	NED	GBR<	AUS	NED	ROU	IRL	GBR	GBR	AUS	POL	NED	GBR	ROU<
2	DEN	AUS	ROU>	ROU	CRO<	LTU	FRA	ROU<	AUS	ROU	NED	CHN	NED	GBR
3	NZL	NZL	SWI	NED	ITA	CHN<	SWI	FRA	NZL	GBR	ITA	GBR	AUS	CAN
4	JPN	SWI	ESP	IRL	IRL>	USA	ITA	USA<	NED	USA	GBR	SWI	ROU<	AUS
5	GRE	GER	IRL	GRE	ROU	FRA	CZE	IRL	USA	NED	AUS	UKR	GER	USA
6	BEL	USA	LTU	GBR	ESP	IRL	ESP	GRE>	FRA	IRL	ROU	GER	USA>	CHN
7	CRO	AUT	SRB	USA	BEL	AUS	GRE	NZL	ROU	CHN	EST<	ITA<	CHN	ITA
8	BUL	UZB<	AUS	LTU	CHN	GRE<	BEL	CHN	UKR	DEN	UKR<	USA>	ITA	GER
9	NED>	SRB<	DEN<	CHI	NZL	NED	NZL	ITA	SWI<	NZL	IRL	CAN	CAN
10	LTU	CHN>	USA	DEN	MDA	NOR	UKR	CAN	CHN<	ESP	GER	AUS	AUT
11	CAN	BUL	AIN (B)	ESP	USA	POL	MEX>	POL	GER>	POL	NOR	FRA
12	AIN (R)	ESP	CRO<	CZE>	FRA	GER	NOR	SWI	POL	GER	SWI	ROU
13	SRB	LTU	NZL	CRO	AUS	GBR	POL	AUS	RSA>	CAN	LTU	CZE
14	HUN	ITA<	ITA	GER	NOR<	ITA	CHN	AUT	IRL>	MEX	CHN
15	ITA>	AIN (B)<	RSA	POL	GER	NZL	GER	GER	ITA		USA
16	NOR	CZE	CAN	ITA	GBR	CZE	POR	ESP	DEN		CAN
17	URU<	TUR	NED	NZL	GRE	CAN	AUS	DEN			CZE
18	BRA	ROU	TUR	CAN	CZE	SWI>	USA	TUN
19	ESP	GBR>	POL	AIN (B)	SRB	RSA	TUR>	PER
20	AUS	UKR	FRA	FRA	POL>		AUT	EGY
21	USA	AIN (R)	CHN	CHN	UKR<		EST
22	POR	FRA	GER	PAR	SWE<		URU
23	AIN (B)	JPN	HUN		LTU		UZB>
24	CHN	POL	SLO		BUL		ISR
25	SLO	NOR<	CZE		URU>		EGY
26	TUN	LAT<	EGY		RSA
27	TUR	SLO			CUB
28	MON	PER			EGY
29	ROU	KUW			PER
30	CYP	BRN			BRN
31	ISR	TOG
32	AZE
33	SWE>
34	EGY
35	MEX>
36	ESA<
37	BER
38	FIN
39	PAR
40	ZIM
41	CIV<
42	IRQ
43	GEO
44	BAR
45	ANG
46	BEN
47	SUD
48	LIB

Right, Only two weeks after the event finished, here is my final update. I was going to include the next two best boats in each boat class but it looked chaotic and at least in 2019 although probably mostly pandemic related very few boats that narrowly missed out at worlds actually ended up qualifying for the Olympics.

Hit rates

Semi finals	Finals	Podium	Winners	Olympic qualifiers
122/144 (84.1%)	63/84 (75%)	32/42 (76.2%)	9/14 (64.3%)	91/114 (79.8%)

So it held up quite well in terms of predicting medallists and winners so a similar type of ranking may well prove fairly accurate at least at predicting the podium at the Olympics next year. I fell one boat short of hitting my 80% target on qualifiers but sure we will round it up and say we sort of got there. Overestimating Greece's early season form and underestimating New Zealand probably were predictable errors and therefore incorporable into this ranking that probably cost me an extra one or two correct qualifiers.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Ogreman