Tokyo Summer Olympic Games 2020 News

[Griff88 1,952]

3 minutes ago, phelps said:

 

I don't think China will just watch the home Nation to dominate...

 

Japan can have a lot of no. 1 seeded athletes, but the Chinese record at the Olympics speaks for them...even when they don't enter as the favourites, at least 2/3 gold medals fly to Beijing and surroundings...

 

I don't expect Japan to win more than 2 gold medals in Badminton...but, as always, this is just my opinion...and it counts as any other people in the world (so, basically nothing )...

And China is always lucky in badminton major events..

 

In Rio 2016 all people talked about how China might only win one gold, yet they still won 2 golds. I remembered I said to @heywoodu that China not gonna win MD and it will be Korea or Indonesia (in the end both of them came back empty handed).

And so did 2018 Thomas Cup and 2019 Sudirman Cup...

[opruh 129]

China have a good chance of winning the XD gold only lol. Their MS and MD is so weak right now. They might have a chance in WS and WD (but Japan dominates here).

[Dunadan 1,103]

As usual at Gracenote they look at every single event, weigh results of competitions in that event, order competitors based on their chance, and predict gold, silver, bronze in each event. That's fine, a lot of people, newspapers, sites do that. But they should stop there instead of producing a medal table (not going to happen of course). So yeah, 12 gold medals for Japan in judo because in 12 categories they think that Japan is #1 favorite, which is not unrealistic, but of course if each one of them has a 50% chance (just an example) to win gold, then 6 gold medals would be the most likely outcome, and 12 would be as likely as 0.

On the other side, countries with a lot of contenders but not many clear favourites will always be underestimated...only 6 golds for Italy would be very disappointing.

 

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Dunadan

[EselTheDonkey 824]

2 hours ago, heywoodu said:

And 34 (or something) they expect for the Netherlands is not expected by anyone in the Netherlands. 

 

And xx is not expected by anyone in xx. Etc  

 

I think 38 medals for Germany would be a slightly disappointing but not unrealistic result. Though I can't say more without knowing their medal prediction in detail. 

[heywoodu 15,135]

1 hour ago, Dunadan said:

As usual at Gracenote they look at every single event, weigh results of competitions in that event, order competitors based on their chance, and predict gold, silver, bronze in each event. That's fine, a lot of people, newspapers, sites do that. But they should stop there instead of producing a medal table (not going to happen of course). So yeah, 12 gold medals for Japan in judo because in 12 categories they think that Japan is #1 favorite, which is not unrealistic, but of course if each one of them has a 50% chance (just an example) to win gold, then 6 gold medals would be the most likely outcome, and 12 would be as likely as 0.

On the other side, countries with a lot of contenders but not many clear favourites will always be underestimated...only 6 golds for Italy would be very disappointing.

 

 

Exactly. Take 300 events and country X has 10% chance to win a medal every single time. In Gracenote's system they'll end up with 0 medals, because most likely in every event there are countries with a higher chance. But 300 times 10% chance isn't gonna result in 0 medals  

[Gianlu33 4,552]

 

[heywoodu 15,135]

Quote

Excited to share the launch of a project close to my heart: coaching three refugee athletes for a shot at making the @Olympics in Tokyo.

 

'A shot', get it?

[bestmen 2,818]

Olympic Competition Schedule

[Fly_like_a_don 1,089]

9 hours ago, heywoodu said:

Well, that's not what I mean, since pretty much everyone from every country reacts with "No way *insertpersonscountry* can win this many medals!" which would mean we'll end up with 80 medals not being won by anyone  

Point to be noted. Though 14 is way too much. As the page said somewhere countries with more women athletes doing better are seen doing better, they may have overestimated us. 

 

Out of the 14 I'm sure about 1 medal they might have predicted - PV Sindhu (silver in WS badminton) ;she'll absolutely destroy all opponents until semis  then she's done with the tournament losing final. 

 

I predicted 7-14 in one of the forums with heavy chance of not more than 9 but they went  further ahead of me though I predicted more golds than them. Lol 

 

I still will be surprised to know who is that lone gold medallist according to them. 

 

Japan cannot win anything more than women's doubles and /or Men's singles  in badminton. 12 golds in judo is a joke nothing else. At most 7-8 (still unlikely). 

 

Can't tell much about boxing if they used previous tournaments under AIBA to predict. Even archery its not that easy apart from Korean medals. 

 

[heywoodu 15,135]

31 minutes ago, Fly_like_a_don said:

Point to be noted. Though 14 is way too much.

 

Again, that is what everyone says about their country (with a few exceptions). If everyone says "we won't win that many, no way!" and that comes true, a ton of medals end up without owner.