Poll 92/100 | Which are your nation's 3 safest medal picks for Tokyo?

[heywoodu 16,476]

20 minutes ago, intoronto said:

For Canada I don't want to jinx anyone so I am not saying anything.

Ah, the @hckošice tactics.

[intoronto 6,947]

Just now, heywoodu said:

Ah, the @hckošice tactics.

I still have nightmares about London 2017

[hckošice 16,645]

9 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Ah, the @hckošice tactics.

hey, this is not a tactic. it's called realistic pessimism, it is a proven prevention of mental health. You expect nothing. so you can not to be very disappointed, you can be only pleasantly surprised....well, Hopefully

[dcmdtruefan 41]

28 minutes ago, Fly_like_a_don said:

My predictions since I quite like to follow Thailand in sports 

 

 

Dechapol Puavaranukroh / Sapsiree Taerattetenachai - For gold (XD Badminton) 

 

Panipak Wongpattanakit- For Gold

 

Busanan Ongbamrungphan AND/OR Ratchanok Intanon - Any medal (WS Badminton) I know the draw isn't that great but still let's hope 

While I appreciate and respect your assessment, I have to respectfully disagree on the badminton picks.

 

The XD pair is prone to losing to lower seeds because their weaknesses are very easy to be exploited. Sapsiree, while having great defensive racket skills, has lost her athleticism due to her ACL injury in 2017 and has never been a competent front court player. This puts a lot of pressure to Dechapol to not only create shots, but to cover virtually the entire half of their court in order to protect Sapsiree. This means that Dechapol is vulnerable to being exhausted when he has to play 80 percent of the shots. If Dechapol cannot put up his end of the bargain and then some, this pair can lose any match against any pair in the top 10 of the world rankings.

 

In terms of WS, Ratchanok, while being hailed as the best technical player in the world along with Tai Tzu Ying, has pronounced stamina issues as well as a weak psyche. If you look at her record in major tournaments, whether it be world championships or World Tour 1000 tournaments, Ratchanok is usually eliminated around the quarterfinals or before then. While Busanan may have great stamina, is pretty toothless in offense and provides a lack of variety in her game. Thus, Thailand's badminton crew is far from guaranteeing a medal. 

 

I can agree that Panipak is a favorite to win gold. But with the periodical lockdowns in Thailand, who knows if she has enough training or not.

 

While I root for Thailand, since is my parent's homeland, I have to be realistic about their chances and the downward trajectory of their sports development in Olympic sports in the past decade due to infrastructure and sociopolitical issues. 

 

The Indonesian user in this site, Griff, may or may not verify the accuracy of my badminton analysis.   

[Cinnamon Bun 911]

 

Adam Peaty

Kathleen Dawson

Jonathan Brownlee

[Fly_like_a_don 1,168]

24 minutes ago, dcmdtruefan said:

The XD pair is prone to losing to lower seeds because their weaknesses are very easy to be exploited. Sapsiree, while having great defensive racket skills, has lost her athleticism due to her ACL injury in 2017 and has never been a competent front court player. This puts a lot of pressure to Dechapol to not only create shots, but to cover virtually the entire half of their court in order to protect Sapsiree. This means that Dechapol is vulnerable to being exhausted when he has to play 80 percent of the shots. If Dechapol cannot put up his end of the bargain and then some, this pair can lose any match against any pair in the top 10 of the world rankings.

 

In terms of WS, Ratchanok, while being hailed as the best technical player in the world along with Tai Tzu Ying, has pronounced stamina issues as well as a weak psyche. If you look at her record in major tournaments, whether it be world championships or World Tour 1000 tournaments, Ratchanok is usually eliminated around the quarterfinals or before then. While Busanan may have great stamina, is pretty toothless in offense and provides a lack of variety in her game. Thus, Thailand's badminton crew is far from guaranteeing a medal. 

I mean yeah the XD pair has struggled with middle - lower ranked teams. Just hope that they face Japanese / Chinese /Korean pairs it'll be easier for them. But unpredictability is feature of Thailand . 

 

Intanon has stamina  issues yes, she looks tired in 3rd set whenever a match extends till there. Busanan is ever improving so fingers crossed. 

 

It's overdue for Thailand to win a badminton medal.

' If not now, when! '

 

 

[MHSN 3,822]

unlike previous two games we don't have a "safe" gold medal (Salimi in 2012 and Moradi in 2016 were 99% safe) but I can say I'm 95% sure about these 2 guys winning a medal

 

Hassan Yazdani (wrestling freestyle 86kg) - only one 86kg guy on planet earth can beat him

Ali Davoudi (weightlifting +109kg) - can't beat Talakhadze for sure but a head and shoulder above the rest means he will win the silver

 

hard to pick a 3rd one. we have world rank #1 in Karate but nothing is safe in that sport. so I go with this guy

Mohammad Hossein Mohammadian (wrestling freestyle 97kg) - gold is really hard because of Sadulaev but I doubt he loses to anybody else

[Vektor 3,326]

 

 

Kristóf Milák, swimming, men's 200 fly - duh, this should be an easy gold, only COVID can stop him

 

canoe sprint, women's K4 500m - we have been dominating this event for a decade now, hopefully it will be another gold, the medal is very much secure

 

canoe sprint, women's K2 500m - I am not as confident as in K4, but we have two strong boats, it would be a disaster if none of them finish in the Top3

[Makedonas 2,263]

2 hours ago, George_D said:

 

1. Tsitsipas (tennis)

2. Korakaki (shooting)

3. Stefanidi (pole vault)

You seriously think these three are more safe than Petrounias?!

 

Tennis is unpredictable, shooting is even more unpredictable, and Stefanidi has struggled post-pandemic.

 

I would say

 

1. Petrounias (gymnastics)

2. Tentoglou (long jump)

3. Tsitsipas (tennis)

[NearPup 4,188]

 

With the caveat that these are the  safest, not safe - this is Canada we are talking about - here are my picks:

 

1. Jenifer Abel and Mélisa Citrini-Baulieu, Diving women's 3m synchronized springboard
2. Laurence Vincent-Lapointe and Katie Vincent, Canoeing women's C-2 500m
3. Jessica Klimkait, Judo women's -57kg

 

Abel and Citrini-Baulieu have been really consistent. They won't win gold but I think they are not going to have any issue picking up a minor medal.

 

There are a lot of questions around how Vincent-Lapointe's form will be. However, LVL and Vincent were so dominant before LVL's suspension that I don't think anyone except the pair have a realistic chance of beating them.

 

I'm picking Klimkait mostly because we know she is in form (given she just won the world championship) and she's going to be seeded in such a way that she'll very likely at least have a chance to fight for bronze.

 

 

Because why not, there is only one athlete so it's an easy pick:

1. Geneviève Lalonde, Athletics women's 3000m Steeplechase