Epic Failure

Yeah, it was the 3 spots per team in the individual that really shocked me. When you add that to the fact that there's a continental quota for a country in the top 16 for a team sport, there's a few teams who are ranked 14th or 15th as a country who are getting 3 fencers in there, when there's an individual who is much higher in the rankings who isn't there. The men's foil, for example, looks likely to have 3 Canadians in it. But not the Spanish guy who is ranked 13th, a good 20 spots higher than any of them. That just seems weird. Personally, I'd do it similarly to cycling - the top ranked countries get 3 spots in the individual. the other team spots get 2, and you increase the global individual spots (based more on the world rankings than continental qualification). So still a strong reward for a great team, a good reward for a solid team and more chance for a talented individual.

Apologies in advance to all fencing aficionados and no disrespect intended to the sport itself, but this morning is the first time I've ever delved deeply into the qualification system for the Olympics, and it is surely one of the more insane systems of qualifications out there.

Yeah, my bigger 'concern' with China is whether they perform on the very highest stage. They've always put fast times down in domestic meets but not always collectively performed on the international stage (they've always had a couple of stars who've performed, but not necessarily the team as a whole). If they can solve that problem on a consistent basis, they are a force to be reckoned with.

Cassie Wild (swimming)

Gutting for Sawyers. Although hopefully she won't miss the Games completely (if she doesn't want to, that is). She was excellent on comms at the World Champs. The Beeb would be insane not to use her in Paris if she's up for it.

The US didn't have too much strength last summer in Fukuoka. Adding in the GBR heat swim (adjusting it slightly slower for a legal takeover), the US were only capable of producing the 4th fastest time of the meet, behind Aus, Italy and GBR. Obviously with their general strength, having them as favourites is perfectly reasonable and even more so if Dressel is close to form. But if someone had one of those others as favourite, I don't think it would be an unreasonable shout. And that's not even considering the Chinese.

Italy were 5th at the last Olympics and 5th in Budapest last summer (as well as 5th in Doha), both in 7:03-something. Yes, China and South Korea were faster in Doha, but that WC is not necessarily a good guide as to who will perform in Paris because we just don't know who was tapered. I certainly wouldn't be ruling Italy out of the running.

There's very little Olympic sport that I won't watch and enjoy, so I would be here all day if I tried to list them. Cycling, Athletics, Rugby and Climbing are all always near the top if there is a clash because they are some of the sports I've taken part in a decent amount myself over the decades.

On the women's side, maybe. On the men's side/mixed, much less likely. The Dutch women and the British women in the freestyle relays have an outside shot to nab a bronze if they are at their best and if Canada or China are not at the absolute top of their game in Paris. On the men's side it is far more open. The 4x100m freestyle alone could have 5 reasonable medal shouts - China, Aus, USA, Italy and GB. And you would probably add South Korea in the 4x200m and France in the medley as having respectable shots.

Oh I'm definitely happy that it happened and the precautions were absolutely necessary to enable it to do so. But it just felt 10% less 'special' than some of the others, if that makes sense?

Worth noting that the set up of the Kite is different from some of the other races. There's 20 preliminary races I think, then an 8 series for the SF and a final 6 race series for the final, I think. Not exactly sure of the numbers, but it is more than in the other events I know that.

The only disappointing thing about the Kenny jump was that there wasn't a proper crowd there to see it and roar him on. Obviously due to circumstances beyond anyone's control but that's why at times Tokyo just didn't feel entirely like a 'true' Games for me. Nobody's fault obviously. And it's why I'm even more hyped for this summer to see full crowds again (fingers crossed!!) That and the camerawork for that final. That wasn't great either.

If we're talking about the most remembered, the Dream Team has to be up there, surely? The 4x100m freestyle battle with the French has gone down in history amongst US swimming circles from what I've seen, as a race, although Spitz and Phelps's total hauls obviously outshine it.

Gotta love technicalities... Next you'll be telling me that our 1936 ice hockey gold doesn't really count because the team was basically Canadian.

Home team/higher seed has won every game thus far. Predictable.

The playoffs are no fun when your team isn't in it. *grumbles*

some strong choices. Others I'd consider - The Mens Hockey Gold in 88 - at least partly because of Barry Davies's commentary Derek Redmond in 92 - memorable for the emotion, not the sporting success obviously Redgrave/Pinsent in 96 - an Olympics that was a nadir for British Olympics generally, so this was the sole really bright spot. But it maintained our record of a gold at every Summer Games Kelly Holmes doing the double in Athens Andy Murray in 2012 The entire opening ceremony. Utterly bonkers and utterly brilliant

The draw for the knockouts would set Spain vs GBR and Canada vs RSA for the 2 semi finals, if all others went to form etc. Spain are capable of pulling a shock for me against GBR. Though still think that RSA will have too much for everyone else. GBR are seemingly getting worse year on year, which is pretty damning considering our resource advantage.

Yeah, the more I looked into it, the more likely that seemed. Although it still seemed a bit weird at times to my simple eyes. I assume the UCI have got better brains working on this than me. From a GBR POV, I guess it depends on whether we value having the 2 places for greater participation, or whether we are more focused on medal shots (with all due respect to Orr/Aldridge), in which case all our eggs are in a Pidcock shaped basket, so to speak.

Or is it calculated by the top 3 from each NOC in each event? That would reward stronger countries I guess, by allowing them to pick and choose who goes full effort at each event.

I'm confused about the qualification criteria, and you might be able to help. The qualification doc says that the ranking will be based on the sum of the top 3 riders from each NOC - https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/Paris-2024/Paris2024-QS-UCI-MountainBike.pdf However, if you look at the rankings list on the UCI website, some of the countries totals seem to be the sum of 4 riders. Was the criteria updated at some point to change it from 3 to 4? Or will the actual rankings published in May be the top 3? If it were that later case, GBR would probably be safer than they are now.

Jeriel Quainoo beating both NMB and Efoloko in Florida is potentially interesting. He has the UK lead with 20.34 (+1.9ms) right now. He's only 21 so definitely one to watch going forward.

It also probably doesn't help that it has the most odds on favourite in the entire swimming pool in it this year! The women's 200m fly is at danger again to break its own record, mind. By my rough calculations there's only 16 people who have hit either the OQT or the OCT, once you adjust for 2 per nation.

Rich people want to make more money, and sooner or later someone with enough money or influence will get behind the idea of supporting another Phoenix team. There's too much of a TV market in that area for them not to want to keep trying it. And it is for that reason, but at the other end, why a QC team is less likely, despite the history. It's just not a big enough market. I'm not saying it is a good thing, but if you have Atlanta, Houston and Phoenix all competing, QC has an uphill challenge to get ahead of them.

They also have always seemed very analytical to me, with little regard for the small nuances of sport. Their 1500m prediction is a classic example of that - they are predicting Jakob for gold (presumably), based on a mix of the last Olympics and his fast times on the circuit. But the last 2 WCs have obviously been won by Brits, beating him in essentially the same way. I wouldn't personally be making him favourite for Gold right now. Statistically, sure. But not on nuance. Then there's things like British Cycling's tactics about Olympics - which has been consistent since about 2009! They tend to dip somewhat in non-Olympic years and then bring out their super round wheels for the Games.