Epic Failure

(Semi) educated guessing here. If Paris uses the same format for the mixed relay as the WC and WR do (ie only one change allowed between heat and final), I suspect that might have an impact on the choices. With the men's individual starting the day after the mixed final, the obvious change would be one of the men, to allow one of them to rest. However, the counter point to that is that the women have much more strength in depth. So swapping a woman would be less of a risk, in principle. Both Dobson and MHS have had injury histories in the past that might make them skeptical of a 3 relay workload. However, they (and UK Athletics) might feel like the mixed is a better chance of a medal than the men's 4x4 is. Obviously if someone else shows top form during the season (AHW or Rio Mitchum being the best options, Davey next so), that would make the decisions easier. My gut tells me that we'll see only 1 of the two men mentioned earlier in the mixed at all and they might only do the final. I'd guess Dobson if I had to. I think we'll see our prospective 2 strongest women, whoever it may be, in both heat and final. I say prospective because I do worry that Amber will not carry the college/indoor form all the way through the summer. History has shown athletes are a mixed bag in terms of whether they can do that. For what it is worth, at the 23 WC, none of our individual runners took part in the mixed. In 2022, 1 did (AHW). In 2019 2 did (Yousif, Diamond). In Tokyo, none did. But that's just all speculation on my part. I realise that I've not really helped clear anything up.

Adrian would never stoop so low. Andy Jamieson, on the other hand...

China were one of the 3 teams mentioned already way ahead of GBR - them, AUS and the USA. If one of those 3 had a mishap, that's when GBR or Canada get in. Looking at their trials, Canada are probably slightly further ahead of GBR than I expected them to be, so they are definitely in pole position for taking advantage of a 'slip up'. GBR's chances are all predicated on Freya Anderson being fit. If she isn't then our slim chances disappear, even in the case of a slip up ahead of us.

Given that the LJ qualification is the morning after the decathlon finishes, I'm going to say that even he probably doesn't know right now and it might depend entirely on how he feels that morning! I'm guessing he'll be entered into both anyway, unless something goes wrong this weekend in Gotzis that puts him off the Decathlon. But that's just my gut. I can't find any press release etc about his plans.

On the other hand, I'm completely on board with Splashy Proud representing us in the pool. Clearly, I value his dignity slightly less than you.

I'm guessing it's because the final of the 200 free is only about an hour after the final of the 400m IM. Not to mention that Summer will have already have had the 400 free on day 1. So if she were to do the 200 free as well, it would be 2 400s on day 1, 2 200s on day 2 and then 3 swims on day 3. Even for Summer that would be a heavy schedule for the first 3 days. Unfortunate scheduling more than anything.

A few in the Canaries tomorrow - https://www.watchathletics.com/page/5448/canarias-athletics-invitational-2024-start-lists Also, just to complicate the picture of British middle distance running a bit more, Jemma Reekie is running a 1500m in Poland this weekend -

In fairness the team kept giving up the puck in open areas in front of him. There was only 1 goal (the 4th I think) that I would say is solely on Binnington.

Citta Di Savona (tomorrow) has a sizeable GBR contingent entered 100m - Eugene Amo-Dadzie, Oliver Bromby, Jeremiah Azu 400m - Charlie Dobson, Lewis Davey 1500m - Archie Davis 110m H - Andy Pozzi, Josh Zeller 400m H - Alastair Chalmers Shot Put - Scott Lincoln 100m - Amy Hunt 200m - Ama Pipi 400m - Keely Hodgkinson 400m H - Jessie Knight Dromia International Sprints (tomorrow) has Adam Gemili entered in the 100m and Josh Faulds in the 400m H. Rabat Diamond League (on 19th May) has the following GB entries: 400m H - Jessie Knight Discus - Lawrence Okoye 100m - Jeremiah Azu 1500m - Jake Heyward, Elliot Giles, George Mills 800m - Ben Pattison, Dan Rowden HJ - Morgan Lake There's plenty of others I'm sure but those are some of the ones I could find with a quick trawl of the interwebs. The LA GP happens this weekend. They don't seem to have announced entry lists yet though Katie Snowden is advertised.

Turner had the SEC Champs last weekend so probably not that surprising that he is missing here. I'd say that he had the Euros as well but I can't imagine he will go there, given that they are the same week as the NCAA Champs. I'm assuming that he'll be at the NCAA finals that is, although we don't officially find out until Thursday.

In fairness, if everyone in sport simply performed to their previously established best times, sport would be very dull. Great swimmers can perform well at their trials and then get their taper wrong. It's not unheard of. Andrew in the 200IM is a prime example that a fast time is not a guarantee of a championship performance when the pressure is on. On the other hand, who predicted Hafnaoui would win the 400m free title in Tokyo? Of the 900 people who entered Swimswam's prediction competition that year, nobody had him even finishing in the top 4. So whilst some of your points are correctly identifying where are not a medal favourite, none of the predictions the other poster made are beyond the realm of possibility. The women's 4x200m free, for example, would only require a poorly timed takeover for GBR to be in with a shot of the podium (although they probably would still be fighting Canada for that spot). I said the following after the trials in April, and I stand by it.

It certainly wouldn't be a shock but shooting is a sport that - at least from my experience - has always been relatively unpredictable and prone to somewhat unexpected performances 'on the day'.

Yeah, like others, I'd say that's an absolute best case scenario performance for . In isolation none of the predictions are inherently *that* unreasonable but the chances of all of them coming off together are pretty astronomical. If we match our performances in the last 3 Summer Games and come away with around 65 medals with a roughly even split of each colour, I'd be delighted.

Also, the dislike of Froome outside GB (I presume you meant there rather than Kenya) is interesting. Because he was never that popular *in* the UK either. The BBC actually wrote about it back in the day - https://www.bbc.com/sport/cycling/33539511 Again, I totally get disliking him/Sky. I just was a bit surprised that someone put him in Armstrong levels of dislike. That was all.

What does everyone have against Kenya? Also, it's Ineos Grenadiers, thank you very much. I don't know who this "Team Sky" is. I don't dispute for a second that Froome/Sky are disliked. I just don't get putting him and Alberto in the same category as Armstrong. Froome is kinda boring as a person. Armstrong was genuinely mean.

Bit harsh on Froome and Contador. Both are much more likeable than Armstrong ever was. Even ignoring anything to do with drugs, Lance was a bully in a way that neither of the others were. Froome's attack in the 2018 Giro is still one of my favourite rides in a Grand Tour ever. Heck of a gutsy ride.

Yeah, Sjoestroem has 6 times which are quicker than any other active swimmer in the 50 free. Cam, as great as he is, isn't even the fastest on paper if Dressel qualifies. It would be much more of a shock if Sarah lost than if Cam did. That's true of many of the other strong Aussie gold chances on the men's side. As great as they are, they are often matched by a couple of other greats - the 100 free has Pan and Popovici, the 200m breast has Qin, the 400m free has Lukas Martens, the 4x100m free has the USA. And so on. Obviously the Aussie men are absolutely still gold medal threats. But the women's side has more "nailed on" Aussie favourites for me.

If he's skipped the Davis Cup the last 2 years, he might not be eligible anyway. Part of the eligibility criteria is the following: The ITF can waive that if they want to and declare him eligible but if your NOC doesn't want to nominate him anyway it might be a moot point.

I don't think Keely would get in our relay squad without a substantial drop anyway and you would think she's probably more focused on her main event this summer. I'd be surprised if we didn't see her at trials though, she's always seemed a "racer". And it's not far from Leigh to Manchester. My comment about Phoebe wasn't specifically directed at you, it was just a general thing that I always worry about young athletes that make this kind of breakthrough. Obviously we (and the rest of British sport by the headlines etc) are all super excited about her. I just hope that she's got a good group around her. Similar to Blocksidge in the pool - obvious talent but giving them time to develop without pressure will hopefully bring long term rewards for both them as an athlete and us as fans. If that is Paris, great. If it is Rome or Lima, also great.

In other news, various Euro Champs qualification times achieved today including: 100m - Louis Hinchcliffe - 10:16 800m - Callum Dodds 1:44.79 and Tom Randolph 1:44.91 Steeple - Phil Norman - 8:21.09 Obviously all will hope to go faster and get Olympic Q times. But Euro Q's shouldn't sniffed at, especially for some younger runners.

Not just a PB but she's gone to #3 all time behind only Christine Ohuruogo and Kathy Cook. Only a tenth away from breaking Christine's British record.

Yes and no. All athletes are supposed to be at trials, barring injury or illness. But the selection policy basically guarantees Keely the 3rd spot, as a WC medalist. So if she's not feeling 100% that week, she has an out more than most. That being said, it is less likely that someone like Keely is going to go too crazy at trials. She doesn't need to go full throttle to still make the top 3. Also, it's important to remember Phoebe is still only 17. She may well not yet have the consistency. If she doesn't match this time again this season, it wouldn't be the end of the world for her.

It's been an exciting day for with just turned 17 year old Phoebe Gill running 1:57.86 in the 800m in Belfast earlier today. Assuming that the time is ratified it would be the 2nd fastest time in the world by any age group this year, and the 2nd fastest by an U18 ever.

Surprised that nobody has mentioned it yet but the performance of the weekend (so far) from a GB runner has come over in the sunny climes of....Belfast. At the Belfast Irish Milers Meet, Phoebe Gill ran the 800m in 1:57.86. Phoebe only turned 17 last month. Assuming the clock etc are accurate, it's hard to overstate how amazing that performance is. To put it in context, it's the second fastest U18 ever, behind only a very suspect Chinese athlete from the 90s. It's the second fastest European U20, behind only Keely. And Phoebe has several years more eligibility in that category. It's quicker than Mary Moraa won the Doha DL yesterday. Obviously, goes without saying that it is an Olympic Q time. Phoebe has been on the radar for potentially being one of the future stars of GB athletics for a while, but I don't think anyone expected her to achieve a time like this quite so quickly. I was hoping that she could drop below 2m this year. That would have been a perfectly good improvement! Race is at the 4h 06m mark: - Astonishing.

Molly is a huge talent and a genuine medal threat in Paris. But 5m has only been done 12 times in history and 8 of those were Isinbayeva. She's not quite at that level yet. Anything over 4.90 is very likely to get her on the podium in Paris.