Epic Failure

Eh, that team could make the final but I'm not sure easily. I can't see them only putting 1 of the final swimmers in the heats - in Tokyo they swam 3 of them. Same in Fukuoka. In Budapest they only swam 2 and they were much closer to not making the final. So I think you bank on 2 of the big 4 in the heat and 2 substitutes.

The more I read the selection policy, the more I think people are worrying too much about the relays and the relay time. I accept I could be wrong here, but for me the policy is pretty clear - if the top 4 collectively meet the time, they will go, no questions asked. That's even if Aquatics GB might not have chosen those specific swimmers themselves. Joe Litchfield is an example of that. He might not be their preferred candidate but he took the decision out of their hands. The first paragraph after the relay selections says the following: "Following the selection of athletes under 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 additional nominations may be made at the complete discretion of the PD and the GB Head Coach. As well as other considerations, the PD and GB Head Coach may use performance against times listed in Table 1 as a guide to assist the exercise of their discretion. In the event the PD and GB Head Coach are unable to agree then the PD’s nomination decision shall be final." There's nothing there that says they won't pick a relay team if they miss the time. There's just no guarantee that they will. The women's 4x100m free missed the time at the British Champs in 21 and they still took part in Tokyo. The policy was slightly different in 21 so it's not exactly the same, but I think the result will be similar. Hopefully the swimmers will take the decision out of the selectors hands anyway. Personally, I will say this - if Jacob Whittle gets on the train, he's a lucky boy. He's had a pretty terrible week. Conversely, if Kieran Bird does not go, he's super unlucky.

My worry is that Anna is in - say - 53.10 shape and Angharad repeats her season's best but no better. Although, as I said, I still think it will be enough in practice. The final day has many implications on it for sure, especially that men's 200m free. Could decide a whole bunch of things: 1) the make up of the 4x200m relay obviously and back ups for that event 2) the potential back up for the 4x100m - if Whittle doesn't go well, he hurts his chances. 3) the potential for Bird - a good 200m performance and he might get not only a relay back up but an individual 400m spot. 4) the potential for the 50m free - if Richards comes top 2 in the 200m, I can't see him doing all 3 freestyle and potentially 3 relays. Which would open up the spot for Cohoon in the 50. 5) whether Peters will get onto the team - if Guy goes poorly, Jacob might get the fly spot but if Jimmy goes top 6 I think it is curtains for Jacob. So many moving parts could be affected by that one race.

Doable but not a guarantee considering that would need a British record in the breaststroke and for Anna to be near her best. Personally I think they'll field a medley if one of the breaststroke ladies gets the individual nod even if the relay split is not quite there. They'll have all the other legs there anyway.

I guess the 'positive' is that we know Guy has it in him to do a great relay split. Whereas previously we were grateful that Greenbank was getting sub-54 splits consistently!

All part of Jimmy Guy's customary attempt to lull everyone into false low expectations....honest.

Considering Medi's situation it would hardly be crazy. Most people were surprised that she even took part in these champs at all.

I really can't understand the support for taking Peters AND Guy, unless Jimmy qualifies individually in the 200m free. I'd rather use Jacob's spot and give that to either Bird or Blocksidge. One has the obvious huge upside of getting better as they age. The other outperformed expectations at trials. There should be some reward for doing that, at least for me. Obviously, Aquatics GB probably won't see it like that.

Medi Harris has swum the 4x1 at the Worlds before (2022). She's the obvious backup in those 30. Last year they used the 4 you mention in both heat/final. As they did in Tokyo.

Fair play to Joe Litchfield. It's not his fault that everyone else underperformed. He's improved his PB by almost a second today. He showed up when others didn't. I wouldn't be doing anything to risk him underperforming in Paris by making him chase a time. If that means Peters doesn't get to go, so be it. Honestly, the only way I would be taking Peters now is if Guy qualifies in the 200m free as one of the 4 relay slots. If Jimmy doesn't qualify that way, I'd still be taking him as cover for the various relays - he's the only swimmer who can cover all 3 relays who isn't already on the team.

I should clarify that I meant they aren't that close at this exact moment in time. As you say, the other events that are going to happen will start making the picture much clearer. For example, if Osrin wins the 200m back in the BNT, that likely makes a decision more difficult for someone like Cox. Basically the putative relay swimmers want the usual suspects to win everything!

Yeah, Andy Jamieson was almost having a fainting fit on comms when he realised that he was doing that double in one session.

There's a bunch of other people who are vying for that spot and it's likely to depend on results in the 50m and 200m, along with other events given the cap British Swimming has imposed. So Whittle, whilst being a strong contender if they do want to take some specific relay cover, isn't as close right now as some others mentioned might be (for what it is worth, I don't think Cox is quite as close either)

My gut is that they will put team goals ahead of individual goals. That's generally been the focus. They clearly encouraged Jimmy to sacrifice his individual goals for the relays in Tokyo. And they've left people out of Worlds teams who have been medal threats in 50s because they aren't useful in Olympics. However, my gut is regularly wrong. And Eva is right at the start of her career as a senior. So they might well prefer her to get more experience of high level comps. That would be a persuasive argument to me. But then I'm an idiot.

She doesn't always swim it but she has a PB from the 2021 trials which is quicker that Osrin's best from earlier this year. Obviously not a guarantee but after her form in the 100m, I'm loathe to rule out the possibility.

Not sure whether I'm sane :D I'd have thought something like Mare Nostrum would be more likely if they really wanted her to target that individual spot. Slightly further removed from the Olympics themselves. Honestly though, I don't think they would be pushing her to do it. Barring a huge drop she wouldn't be a finalist in either distance. So her biggest upside right now is the relay. Doubtful they would encourage something that might put that in jeopardy.

Don't think the 200IM is definitely a sure thing for Dean/Scott as a pair. Max Litchfield is obviously on form and is only half a second back of Dean on PBs. Obviously it wouldn't change the make up of the team anyway as all 3 are on the train. Likewise, Dawson could challenge Osrin for that back spot.

It's possible. But he's only =7th seed for that. So he probably requires a couple of those in front of him to have a pretty awful day and then also perform well himself, whilst hoping that none of those around him have a good swim (which includes the likes of Max Litchfield and Kieran Bird, so not exactly implausible that they swim well either).

200 free.

Burras has historically not always been great on relays either, so you feel he really needed to deliver here to be sure of his place. He's seeded #2 for the 50 but even his time-trial tonight was not super impressive. Right now there's probably 4/5 people who fancy their chances of being ahead of him, all of whom could be in that relay as well. And obviously I'm discounting Proud, who you imagine will be miles ahead of everyone, but won't be on the relay unless there's a weird sickness bug the week of the Games!

I think Jacob is probably at risk, especially considering that the 4x1 is on day 1, when you expect everyone to be fresh. I think if someone like Painter or Cumberlidge were to get the 2nd 50 spot, Whittle might be missing out.

Depends on how expected you think. The only one that has probably exceeded expectations thus far has been Bird. Dean was fine tonight but nothing special. Others (Brooker, Adam, Williams, Mildred etc) have been outperformed by others. Very few of the Bath swimmers have matched their seedings thus far.

In other news, the Bath PC team have had a pretty awful meet thus far. Not sure they've got any individual qualifiers at the moment. Sounds obvious but I think what happens in the 50/200 will greatly impact who goes in the relay as back up. You would presume that Jimmy Guy will be under consideration as well as those in the final tonight.

The 4 tonight were quicker than the respective top 4 at trials last year by about 0.4 seconds collectively (and each swimmer was faster than their respective finisher last year), so I'm not sure you can use that race to write off their chances of a medal.

From memory (ie don't quote me on this!), I think they usually do a bunch of work on the relay takeovers at the training camp directly ahead of the champs. I'm not sure whether they do as much during normal training, with different people being in different camps and with things like tapering being an issue.