Epic Failure

My previous comment was somewhat tongue in cheek. I'm certainly not expecting Jimmy to be in Tokyo form, although I do think his history has shown that he has the ability to rise to the occasion - in both 16 and 21, Jimmy was consistently splitting between 1-1.5 seconds quicker in the relays than his flat fly at trials. And obviously we know his prior commitment to the relays in dropping the 100 fly in Tokyo. But add in the fact that Joe has actually not even taken part in the 100 fly at the British trials since he was a junior in 2016, I believe, and there's an argument that he might actually be able to drop further if that is his sole target this summer... So I'm relatively confident that between them they can probably provide a split somewhere around 51. Which is what I would have expected from Jacob anyway. Whilst I would love to have seen Jacob improve to world class level, he had stalled somewhat - his quickest time was still from the British Champs last year and in Fukuoka he was slower than he had been at Champs. Basically, I'm not down on our chances with Jimmy/Joe as some people. Like, I don't think our chances are great but I don't think Jacob would have been a difference maker.

I mean, Jimmy did a 50 flat split in Tokyo. If he was in that form and if Medi/Kathleen could be in 59 mid we would still be in real medal contention! It's worth noting that even if Peters had been at his personal best from last year, he's only 6.8s quicker than MacInnes was at trials, whereas Morgan was 7s quicker than Dawson. It wasn't just that Peters had a bad trials, it's also that all our fly options are relatively weak, male or female. I give Medi about as much of a free pass from trials, much as I do Freya. In the circumstances, I was pleasantly surprised seeing her there at all. The bigger worry is that her backstroke seems to have been on the gradual decline over the last 18 months, as her freestyle has improved.

I mean, Harris if she finds her backstroke form has been the form GBR female backstroker since the last Olympics - she has 6 of the top 7 times, all well under the minute. She's been quicker than either Cox or Dawson have been in that time. She just hasn't been that quick this year. That being said, Dawson possibly only has the 100m and the medley. I wouldn't be sure that we'll go FMMF in the mixed this year. Think a MMFF is as likely. The differential is about the same right now between our back/fly swimmers.

So the only difference from my planned squad I posted after the champs is Whittle for Hanlon. A fair enough swap. With Evans only having one individual event, she shouldn't be taxed with 2 rounds of the women's medley. I'm not worried about not taking Peters. Yes he's been British #1 but if you look at his times over the last 18 months, they are not dissimilar from Guy's. I'd back Guy getting back to his best over Jacob suddenly taking a step forward. And that's assuming that Joe doesn't drop time himself now that he knows he has a spot there.

So I just totted up what I think are the totals for the OQT for USA, AUS, GBR, Japan, Italy, China and France, using the FINA LCM rankings from 1st March 23 to today. Those were the countries I thought might have a chance of being near the top of a list like this. There are other countries which are strong in part (Canadian & Dutch women) but less so collectively. I could be doing them a disservice not including them, but I was already looking at enough to fry my brain anyway Russia would likely be somewhere in there, but with their uncertain status about things, I've not included in these figures. USA - Men 83, Women 98 = 181 total Aus - Men 34, Women 60 = 94 total Japan - Men 38, Women 27 = 65 total China - Men 25, Women 39 = 64 total GBR - Men 34, Women 25 = 59 total Italy - Men 33, Women 14 = 47 total France - Men 25, Women 14 = 39 total These are qualified swims, not swimmers. So Duncan Scott - for example - is in the GBR quota 3 times (100m fr, 200m fr, 200m IM). It would take me a lot longer to work that out, at least for countries that are not GBR. GBR is 37 total swimmers with an OQT - 23 men and 14 women.

I don't think anyone doubted that Amber would have a strong year after her indoor improvements. I fully expect her to go under 50 at some point this year. But keeping spring NCAA form into the summer is not guaranteed. We only have to look at Britton Wilson last year. Even Adeleke - who held her form better than Wilson did - was over half a second slower in Budapest than she was at the NCAA champs. It's great overall to see Amber's progression. It just might not work out this specific summer. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.

Do you have any actual evidence to back that up, or are you just guessing? Because unless Freya chooses not to go or her illness gets worse again, I would be stunned if GB don't take her. Even if just as relay cover. We saw in London that Freya at 90% (her description) is still good enough to be in the 4x100m free team. With the 4x200m and mixed medley as well, it would be crazy to not take her. It would be utterly self defeating to not select her.

It's tough to get a full read until some of the other countries have their trials. But this is where I would say we are at right now in the pool, in terms of prospective medals in Paris. Not predicting a particular colour for any of them. Very High Chance M 4x200m free M 100m breaststroke - Peaty Good Chance M 4x100m free M 200m free - Richards or Scott M 200m IM - Scott M 50m free - Proud Outside Chance W 400m IM - Colbert M 400IM - Litchfield M 200m IM - Dean M 4x100m medley Mx 4x100m medley Shock Chance W 4x200m free W 4x100m free M 100m free - Richards M 100m back - Morgan M 200m back - Morgan or Greenbank W 200m fly - Stephens or MacInnes W 200m back - Shanahan W 200m IM - Wood or Colbert Obviously, there's always shocks and surprises. The performance of other nations also will be key - you would expect the US and Aus to be strong always. But China are the great unknown. If they have a strong Olympics, our medal chances will be hit hard. If they don't, our chances open up in a bunch of events. Also, fitness is part of it - if Freya Anderson doesn't recover from her woes, our women's relay long shots become non-existant shots.

Oh, yeah, I was meaning strongest here in terms of the depth of the full squad, rather than the top 4. I'm not convinced that Amber or Yemi will be as strong in the summer, given their college commitments. But we're in a strong place as a squad. There's the US ahead of us, and then the 2 superstars of the Dutch. But there's no reason we shouldn't be firmly in the medal mix come Paris.

They are definitely wrong. It looks like they copied her results from the 2022 meet. Definitely doesn't appear on the official results for this year - https://www.tfrrs.org/results/85657/Hurricane_Alumni_Invitational

If you look at the press release of the team announcement, Darren Campbell specifically says that Dina and Daryll will 'join the team in the summer'. So, in theory, they are playing this as an agreed absence. We'll see later in the year if that is the case, I guess... On the 4x4 women's side probably missing Jessie Knight from our strongest, as well as Yemi Mary John - although Yemi is in the same position as Amber with college commitments so you imagine that explains her absence as well.

I think if the decision for them not to go to is a collective agreement with UKA, they'll be fine. But I think if one of the athletes were to raise a stink themselves, that might not sit so well. Especially on the women's side - we saw them get the bronze without DAS last summer. And obviously we've seen how they have handled Prescod over the years. I'm just speculating out loud, for idle conversation though to be honest. Having the race practice is hopefully another reason to send a strong squad. Training is all well and good but there's nothing quite like the pressure of racing.

What about Alyson Bell and Aleeya Sibbons? Aren't they on the confirmation relay funding like Anning/John? Will be interesting whether Hughes/DAS or Neita are selected. Technically the selection policy only says that relay funded athletes have to make themselves available, so there's no specific requirement for those 3 to do so. But you would think they would want to stay on the selector's good side if they want to be involved in Paris...

Who would be their 4th leg? I'm guessing you're saying Karsten, Ingvaldsen and Jaeger for the other 3 legs? It'll be interesting to see what teams countries will send to the World Relays. With so limited other option to qualify, you would expect people to send strong teams. But that won't necessarily work for the individual athletes. Especially those from nations with limited strength in depth.

Even on the men's doubles side, no British man has got past the QFs at Roland Garros in recent years, let alone a British pair together. I'd be amazed if we got on the podium this year.

As someone who these days lives outside the normal broadcasting area of traditional UK tv, I was just grateful that I could watch the C4 youtube stream!

Nick posted last summer that he hoped to be back this year but that's the most recent news I've seen. He sounds like he had fairly serious heart issues, so certainly wouldn't be surprised if he didn't make it back. Health has to obviously come first!

A good list. One name that you've missed that I'd be tempted to add is Nick Miller in the hammer - his health is questionable but if he gets back competing at all this summer you would expect him to be in the top 5 in GB easily. Aside from that, the only quibble I would have is maybe tracking a few more juniors who could make the breakouts that you talk about - the likes of Phoebe Gill or Nia Wedderburn-Goodison could easily come on leaps and bounds this year.

Litchfield doesn't have a OQT, so right now if he does the individual 100m, nobody else can. I'd rather see where his 100m fly is at in the individual 100m before I commit to throwing him into the medley relay (which we would have to do if we don't swim him individually). Jervis hasn't always swum the 800m when he's qualified for it previously, so I'm not sure he will here. Same with Robinson in the pool. It's easy to say they will use it as a warm up, but they might prefer to stay rested. Guy pulled out of the 100m free final, so we don't know how fast he could have gone in that. But given how poorly Whittle went, I'd be more inclined to put Jimmy in there anyway. There's probably only a couple of tenths between them. And given that relay is day 1, I'm not even 100% convinced we should be using *any* reserves. All 4 of the main guys should be fresh. Joe Litchfield just went a 1.49. He was over 3.5 seconds slower than McMillan. McMillan being there probably allows some of the big guns to push slightly less. Litchfield probably doesn't give that choice. Hell, using Max is probably a wise choice. The only real argument for Whittle is if you think that he can get his form back and that the others are at their peak. It's possible but that seems more of a risk than choosing the folks who actually performed this week, at least for me.

Maybe. Obviously fatigue and holding your form come into play. Either way, I don't think there's wrong result whichever way it pans out.

We don't know for certain when they will announce it but the selection policy says that the athletes will be notified by Thursday at the latest.

So I drew up a draft team earlier today, and from what I saw tonight nothing changed. Some of this is known, some of it is my guesswork what will happen in Paris event wise: Men 50 free - Proud and Cohoon 100 free - Richards and Dean 200 free - Richards and Scott 400 free - Bird 1500m free - Jervis 100 back - Morgan and Marshall 200 back - Morgan and Greenbank 100 breast - Peaty and Wilby 100 fly - Litchfield 200IM - Scott and Dean 400IM - Litchfield Relay extras - Guy, McMillan Women 50 free - Hopkin 100 free - Hopkin and Anderson 200 free - Wood and Anderson 100 back - Dawson and Harris 200 back - Osrin and Shanahan 100 breast - Evans and Hanlon 100 fly - MacInnes 200 fly - MacInnes and Stephens 200IM - Wood and Colbert 400IM - Colbert and Shanahan Relay extras - Okaro, Hope I think they will run all 7 relays. Toby Robinson could get in the 800 or 1500 but I've not counted him because he'll be there anyway and I doubt he'll risk the pool events given that the open water is after them in the program. I've made some guesses based on workload and people who I think have FINA OQTs, obviously. Now to see how wrong I am when the selectors make their announcement this week.

I mean, it's possible that they will be. But until the team is announced, that's supposition. We all think they are going to be strict but there's no actual hard evidence they will be yet.

It's not that many other countries have that many sub 1.48 swimmers, it's that the other countries won't drop as many of their swimmers in the heats!! To make the final last year and in Tokyo took an average split of just under 1.47 (if my maths is right!) We'll see tonight where we're at but there's playing it safe and playing it *too* safe.

Jacob would do well to beat Bird tonight, as Jacob didn't make the A final! I suppose it is possible that he does a quicker time in the B final.