It’s not all about that though, it’s about how strong athletes are in each event. Let’s say Kaul is middle of the standings after the first day, he would have a really good chance at getting on the podium because he has a much stronger second day. Neugebauer has been right around his PB in his first two events, while Warner is a fair bit off his marks in Tokyo (10.12, and 8.24m)
I think 8950+ will be enough for gold, so he’ll really need to improve on at least a couple of his Tokyo marks if he’ll want to contend for gold.