Summer Olympic Games 2020 Team Sports Early Qualification Predictions

[CCB 565]

  On 7/1/2018 at 6:27 PM, EselTheDonkey said:

Germany's chances, IMO:

 

Field Hockey M. 85%

Field Hockey W: 80%

Football W: 60%

Handball M: 60%

Football M: 45%

Volleyball W: 35%

Handball W: 25% 

Volleyball M: 20% (after the World Championships, they will lose many points in the World Ranking. So their only chance is probably the European Qualifier)

Basketball M: 15%

Rugby M: 15%

Water Polo M: 10%

Baseball: 5%

Water Polo W: 5%

Rugby W: 0%

Basketball W: 0%

Softball: 0% 

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In my opinion your women's handballteam will become one of the best in the world. They become better and better, have a very good coach (Henk Groener, Dutch ;-)). In The Netherlands, we are not amused that we have to play against Germany in the mainround of the European Championships. So, I would say "Handball W 75%"

[Benolympique 2,398]

  On 7/1/2018 at 6:27 PM, EselTheDonkey said:

Germany's chances, IMO:

 

Field Hockey M. 85%

Field Hockey W: 80%

Football W: 60%

Handball M: 60%

Football M: 45%

Volleyball W: 35%

Handball W: 25% 

Volleyball M: 20% (after the World Championships, they will lose many points in the World Ranking. So their only chance is probably the European Qualifier)

Basketball M: 15%

Rugby M: 15%

Water Polo M: 10%

Baseball: 5%

Water Polo W: 5%

Rugby W: 0%

Basketball W: 0%

Softball: 0% 

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i predict for germany

field hockey women - men

hand ball women - men

football women - men

volley women - men

[De_Gambassi 1,225]

France

 

Sevens W: 100%

Handball M: 95%

Handball W: 95% 

Basketball W: 85%

Sevens M: 85%

Football W: 80%

Basketball M: 75%

Volleyball M: 75%

Football M: 50%

Field Hockey M. 15% (don't really know the percentage)

Water Polo M: 10%

Water Polo W: 10% (Perhaps, not sure really)

Field Hockey W: 0%

Volleyball W: 0%

Baseball: 0%

Softball: 0% 

 

We had 9 teams in Rio, according to this, we should have 7.75 teams  in Tokyo  

Edited July 1, 2018 by De_Gambassi

[OlympicsFan 860]

  On 7/1/2018 at 6:27 PM, EselTheDonkey said:

Germany's chances, IMO:

 

Field Hockey M. 85%

Field Hockey W: 80%

Football W: 60%

Handball M: 60%

Football M: 45%

Volleyball W: 35%

Handball W: 25% 

Volleyball M: 20% (after the World Championships, they will lose many points in the World Ranking. So their only chance is probably the European Qualifier)

Basketball M: 15%

Rugby M: 15%

Water Polo M: 10%

Baseball: 5%

Water Polo W: 5%

Rugby W: 0%

Basketball W: 0%

Softball: 0% 

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I would say (i know in reality there is always a chance ... ):

Water polo m/w 0 %

Rugby m/w 0 %

Softball/baseball 0 %

Basketball w 0 %

Hockey m/w > 90 %

Football w > 70 %

Handball m, football m ≈ 50 %

Basketball m*, handball w, volleyball m/w ≈ 25 %

Realistic case: Hockey m/w, football w, handball m, basketball m

 

*We shouldn't forget that by the start of next season Germany might have the 2nd most NBA players of all european nations, tied with Spain and only behind France.

Edited July 1, 2018 by OlympicsFan

[dareza 911]

For Serbia: Waterpolo (M), Basketball (M) and Volleyball (W) - "almost" sure. Good chance for Basketball (W), solid for Volleyball (M), Handball (W) and football (M). And small chance for Handball (M).

 

i think that 4-5 team is realistic for Serbia.

Edited July 2, 2018 by dareza

[Rafoo 226]

For Croatia Handball(M),Handball(W),Waterpolo(M),Basketball(M),Football(M)

[OlympicsFan 860]

  On 7/1/2018 at 6:27 PM, EselTheDonkey said:

Germany's chances, IMO:

 

Field Hockey M. 85%

Field Hockey W: 80%

Football W: 60%

Handball M: 60%

Football M: 45%

Volleyball W: 35%

Handball W: 25% 

Volleyball M: 20% (after the World Championships, they will lose many points in the World Ranking. So their only chance is probably the European Qualifier)

Basketball M: 15%

Rugby M: 15%

Water Polo M: 10%

Baseball: 5%

Water Polo W: 5%

Rugby W: 0%

Basketball W: 0%

Softball: 0% 

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Do you think that there might be a chance for Germany to qualify in womens basketball? Currently Germany is absolutely dominating at U18 level, but i guess those talents wont be ready to carry the senior team already. I think for 2024 Germany might have a realistic chance to qualify in womens basketball, but 2020 probably comes too early (i dont know how big the step from U18 level to senior level in womens basketball is though). I would love to see Germany qualify in rugby since thats my second favorite team sport at the olympics, but i am not sure whether there is actually a chance. I remember that Germany was not too far away from qualifying for Rio, would you say that the german chances are better this time?

[LDOG 2,418]

  On 8/12/2018 at 12:02 AM, OlympicsFan said:

 I would love to see Germany qualify in rugby since thats my second favorite team sport at the olympics, but i am not sure whether there is actually a chance. I remember that Germany was not too far away from qualifying for Rio, would you say that the german chances are better this time?

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If you mean Germany men I would say they are slightly improved from 4 years ago (barely lost to Japan the qualifier final to be core team in the sevens series next season). But now Ireland is taking sevens seriously (made great performances in a couple of tournaments beating some of the best teams in the world) and that is one hell of a tough opponent to add for Germany.

 

The chance is still there, I would say there are 10 teams that will qualify for sure (JPN obviously and AUS, FIJ, NZL, RSA, KEN, ARG, USA, GBR, FRA), so that leaves 2 spots to be contested between Germany, Canada, Samoa, Spain, Russia and Ireland. Six teams for two places but I think Samoa and Canada are slight favorites, so... let's say Germany has around 20% chance.

[JoshMartini007 2,559]

  On 8/12/2018 at 12:02 AM, OlympicsFan said:

Do you think that there might be a chance for Germany to qualify in womens basketball? Currently Germany is absolutely dominating at U18 level, but i guess those talents wont be ready to carry the senior team already. I think for 2024 Germany might have a realistic chance to qualify in womens basketball, but 2020 probably comes too early (i dont know how big the step from U18 level to senior level in womens basketball is though). I would love to see Germany qualify in rugby since thats my second favorite team sport at the olympics, but i am not sure whether there is actually a chance. I remember that Germany was not too far away from qualifying for Rio, would you say that the german chances are better this time?

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There's a chance, but they definitely won't be the favourites. The core teams are still a step ahead of the other teams and the final qualification tournament will have at least three of them competing, not to mention Ireland whom is a bit of a wildcard now that they are starting to care about rugby sevens. Germany's best bet is to hope Great Britain (England) and France qualify through the world series and then go all in at the European champs and defeat Spain/Russia/Ireland

[EselTheDonkey 825]

  On 8/12/2018 at 12:02 AM, OlympicsFan said:

Do you think that there might be a chance for Germany to qualify in womens basketball? Currently Germany is absolutely dominating at U18 level, but i guess those talents wont be ready to carry the senior team already. I think for 2024 Germany might have a realistic chance to qualify in womens basketball, but 2020 probably comes too early (i dont know how big the step from U18 level to senior level in womens basketball is though). 

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I think there is 0% chance to qualify for Tokyo 2020 in Women's Basketball. They definitely need to qualify for the European Championships to have a chance, and it looks like they won't.

Edited August 12, 2018 by EselTheDonkey