How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2018 version)

[hoversaBR 434]

7 minutos atrás, LDOG disse:

 

It's not a matter of the fans, they will always care. I'm talking about the clubs and federations.  It's just an example, but how will CBF be able to convince City to release Jesus this time? impossible, and I don't think the players themselves will make an scandal to play this tournament either. Rio was special because it was at home, but now?

I understood what you said. What I want to say is that brazilians, in general,will always take competition seriously. So, the best possible team that CBF can send, it will certainly do. Why settle for a title if you can have two?

[JoshMartini007 2,533]

2 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

2 questions:

1) What happens with the remaining medals?

2) Why does the US lose about 10 medals, while Canada more than doubles it's medal count from 12 to 26?

37 medals would be disappointing for Germany. Germany currently has 33 medals and football, hockey, equestrian and shooting aren't included till now, so it would be disappointing if Germany would only gain 4 medals in those sports, i think it's more likely that Germany will win 10-12 medals in those events.

 

1) A combination of things. Some events did not have a top tier championship/ranking. Some events had too many athletes from the same nation, for example, China had 5 quarter-finalists in women's singles table tennis, but only two were actually counted, leaving the rest as blanks. Weightlifting is also missing a bunch of spots in anticipation that the banned nations will return (I was still very generous with the results, Mexico is looking at a potential of two medals).

 

2) Basically the formula thinks the United States has overperformed while Canada has underperformed in 2017. From a medals perspective Canada had a pretty bad year, but from an overall picture Canada did pretty well. Athletics is a good example, 0 medals, yet 12 top 8 performances.

 

3) Germany was a step behind Great Britain and France in 2017 thus the medals show that. Hockey and shooting are both included, Germany is expected to get 0-2 and 2-5 medals respectively.

[Finnator123 292]

Maybe 1-5 medals?  

[Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo 142]

(Italy) our goal must always be between 30 and 35 medals, with 10-12 gold. 
In tokyo it will be easy, i think

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 4 Stunden schrieb Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo:

(Italy) our goal must always be between 30 and 35 medals, with 10-12 gold. 
In tokyo it will be easy, i think

Thanks for bringing that up! I just "discovered" one of the most amazing (in my opinion) coincidences in olympic/sports history.

Have a look at Italy's results (number of golds/medals in total) at the last 3 summer olympics ... just incredible!

 

Back to your original point:

1) Why must the italian goal always be to win 30-35 medals, 10-12 of them in gold?

2) Why do you think that it will be easy?

[Glen 169]

I'll be extremely happy with 1 medal. Malta is still waiting for that historical first Olympic medal. Shooting seems to be the only possible discipline to achieve this

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 18 Stunden schrieb JoshMartini007:

 

1) A combination of things. Some events did not have a top tier championship/ranking. Some events had too many athletes from the same nation, for example, China had 5 quarter-finalists in women's singles table tennis, but only two were actually counted, leaving the rest as blanks. Weightlifting is also missing a bunch of spots in anticipation that the banned nations will return (I was still very generous with the results, Mexico is looking at a potential of two medals).

 

2) Basically the formula thinks the United States has overperformed while Canada has underperformed in 2017. From a medals perspective Canada had a pretty bad year, but from an overall picture Canada did pretty well. Athletics is a good example, 0 medals, yet 12 top 8 performances.

 

3) Germany was a step behind Great Britain and France in 2017 thus the medals show that. Hockey and shooting are both included, Germany is expected to get 0-2 and 2-5 medals respectively.

1) I don't really get it ...

With sports that already had top tier championships, you took the results from there and for every other sports you just predicted the results? 

I think there will be 324 events in Tokyo, so we should have more than 700 medals (thanks to judo and so on) in total. Why didn't you for example take the best non-chinese athlete in table tennis as bronze medal winner?

3) So you made predictions for hockey and shooting, but not for equestrian or football? Why?

[phelps 7,664]

5 ore fa, OlympicsFan ha scritto:

Thanks for bringing that up! I just "discovered" one of the most amazing (in my opinion) coincidences in olympic/sports history.

Have a look at Italy's results (number of golds/medals in total) at the last 3 summer olympics ... just incredible!

 

Back to your original point:

1) Why must the italian goal always be to win 30-35 medals, 10-12 of them in gold?

2) Why do you think that it will be easy?

 

in my opinion...

 

1) because that's more or less the average level of our Olympic sports (in these last 15/20 years we've always had about the same number of people practicing high level sport and the same overall budget, so it's quite logical to have a "regular" standard of performance in both quality and quantity)...

and until we can find a Phelps or Scherbo, who could bring us on a higher level by winning 4/5 gold medals as an individual, it's difficult to change this trend (unless we suddenly convert our usual 50/60 medal chances with a not realistic percentage...or, on the other side, unless we're so unlucky to get less than 40/50% out of our chances)...

 

2) because we have a good number of chances in many sports (apart from Campriani, most of our medallists fro Rio will be back in Tokyo and some of our most promisinig youngsters have been constantly improving since then) and because the new events (2 more fencing competitions, the swimming men's 800m and women's 1500m and 8 karate weight classes just to mention those where we have already got continental and/or world medals in the last few years) will give us at least 10/12 shots more than the previous Games...

Edited March 8, 2018 by phelps

[JoshMartini007 2,533]

3 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

1) I don't really get it ...

With sports that already had top tier championships, you took the results from there and for every other sports you just predicted the results? 

I think there will be 324 events in Tokyo, so we should have more than 700 medals (thanks to judo and so on) in total. Why didn't you for example take the best non-chinese athlete in table tennis as bronze medal winner?

3) So you made predictions for hockey and shooting, but not for equestrian or football? Why?

 

Medals aren't tied to any event, it's more the summation of all the chances a nation has. The vacancies are to prevent other nations from gaining an unfair boost to their chances.

 

I used the 2016-17 World League for hockey and the World Cup Final and World Shotgun Championships for shooting. Equestrian and women's football did not have anything that I could of used.

[OlympicsFan 858]

Am 8.3.2018 um 21:08 schrieb phelps:

 

in my opinion...

 

1) because that's more or less the average level of our Olympic sports (in these last 15/20 years we've always had about the same number of people practicing high level sport and the same overall budget, so it's quite logical to have a "regular" standard of performance in both quality and quantity)...

and until we can find a Phelps or Scherbo, who could bring us on a higher level by winning 4/5 gold medals as an individual, it's difficult to change this trend (unless we suddenly convert our usual 50/60 medal chances with a not realistic percentage...or, on the other side, unless we're so unlucky to get less than 40/50% out of our chances)...

 

2) because we have a good number of chances in many sports (apart from Campriani, most of our medallists fro Rio will be back in Tokyo and some of our most promisinig youngsters have been constantly improving since then) and because the new events (2 more fencing competitions, the swimming men's 800m and women's 1500m and 8 karate weight classes just to mention those where we have already got continental and/or world medals in the last few years) will give us at least 10/12 shots more than the previous Games...

1) If the number of people practicing hig level sport and the overall budget remained the same, than it wouldn't be logical that the number of italian medals stays at the same level over the years. GB, Japan, China and some eastern european countries invested more and more money over the last decade or so and globally the number of people who were able to practice certain sports constantly increased, so with the same money you should get less medals nowadays, of course this doesn't take the new events into consideration.

2) Makes sense, i didn't know that Italy was so good in karate and to be honest i don't care about those new sports. I think Italy should win 2 more medals in fencing, 1-2 more medals in shooting/archery and at least 1 more medal in swimming (although i don't see Quadarella winning a medal at the olympics), so this should easily be enough for at least 30 medals, although i am not sure whether 10-12 golds are a lock (Again: I don't know how good Italy is in karate, are there any safe italian golds in karate?).