How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2018 version)

[OlympicIRL 5,534]

Right now my prediction would be zero to be perfectly honest. We have a couple who might contend but for every medal chance, you would want to have 4 or 5 back up chances and right now there isn't. 

Let's see what the next 12-18 months brings but my hopes could not be lower

 

 

Edited March 7, 2018 by OlympicIRL

[OlympicsFan 860]

Am 31.1.2018 um 23:13 schrieb Mkbw50:

Less. Early prediction is return to Beijing levels...

I don't think so, I think you are much better in taekwondo (1 medal in Beijing), artistic gymnastics (1 medal in Beijing) or diving (0 medals in Beijing) now. I would say 55-60 medals are absolutely realistic for GB.

[OlympicsFan 860]

My expectations concerning number of medals:

I won't include the newly added sports, because i don't follow them and don't care about them.

Sadly we don't have the "How many athletes of your nation will qualify for the 2020 olympics" thread that we had before the last olympics ... until now, but i guess that's just because we don't know the qualifying procedure until now ... ?

Archery: 1-2 medals (women's team, women's individual)

Athletics: 6-7 medals (1-2 x men's javelin throw, men's discus throw, men's shot put, decathlon, men's pole vault, men's triple jump, men's 20 km race walking, women's 1500 m, women's 5000 m, women's 100 m hurdles, women's 3000 m SC, women's 4 x 100 m, women's long jump, women's shot put, women's discus throw, women's javelin throw, heptathlon)

Badminton: -

Basketball: -

Boxing: 1 medal (On the men's side: Baraou, Harutyunyan, Kadiru)

Canoeing slalom: 2 medals

Canoeing sprint: 6-8 medals

Cycling road: -

Cycling track: 4 medals (1-2 x women's sprint, women's keirin, women's team sprint, men's sprint)

BMX: -

Mountainbike: -

Diving: 1 medal

Equestrian: 6 medals (I hope that Germany will finally win a jumping gold medal)

Fencing: -

Field hockey: 2 medals

Football: 2 medals

Golf: -

Rhythmic gymnastics: -

Trampoline: -

Artistic gymnastics: 1-2 medals (Both on the women's side)

Handball: 1 medal

Judo: 3-4 medals (Germany had really good junior results in the last couple of years, i think there are 4-6 talents on the women's side that could turn out really strong + Wieczerzak and Vargas-Koch)

Modern pentathlon: -

Rowing: 4-5 medals (I hope that the tradition of Germany winning medals in both quadruple skulls events and men's eight will continue + i really expect a lot in men's single skulls)

Rugby: -

Sailing: -

Shooting: 4 medals (Of course the retirements of Junghänel and Engleder hurt, but Reitz and Karsch are still there. Reitz even seems to become a force in air pistol now ... Engleder got "replaced" by Beer + other athletes like Brodmeier, Link and Haaga should combine for another medal. I think the changes really helped Germany, in my opinion no medal chances were lost, but 2 new medal chances were created with the mixed air rifle/pistol team events)

Swimming: 1 medal (hopefully Germany will become stronger in open water swimming again, but sadly that doesn't seem very likely ...)

Synchronized swimming: -

Table tennis: 3 medals (I think the changes helped Germany, a new medal chance in the mixed team event)

Taekwondo: -

Tennis: 1-2 medals (Sadly the olympics won't be for another 2.5 years, right now Kerber and Görges would win 1-2 medals alone. Only a second top 15-20 player on the men's side is missing, Kuhn is on his way to become just that, sadly he doesn't compete for Germany anymore ...)

Triathlon: -

Volleyball: -

Beach volleyball: 1 medal

Water polo: -

Weightlifting: -

Wrestling: 2 medals

Total: 52-60 medals

 

The number seems really high, but i actually think it's not unrealistic. Germany has actually a lot of room for improvements in athletics (only 3 medals in 2016), canoeing slalom (no medal in 2016), cycling (only 2 medals in 2016) and judo (only 1 medal in 2016) + the new events in shooting and table tennis should help Germany. We also shouldn't forget that out of all the individual medallists from Rio only 4 reitred/will be too old to compete in Tokyo.

 

[thepharoah 2,405]

not optimistic at all , with our results after Rio , many sports aren't participating in international tournaments as before , thanks God we have Karate where we used to be good at , so i can say 5 medals would be great for us , Karate and Weightlifting should be our biggest hopes + an athlete or two in MP , shooting , taekwondo , Swimming , for sorry right now we don't have a big name in fighting sports just like before except Taekwondo which also i'm not really optimistic at , Hedaya Malak our bronze medalist in Rio changed her weight category and went to -67 kg , Seif Essa in men's -84 kg isn't a guaranteed athlete and hasn't proven yet to be a big contender in his weight category , let's see what will happen at the end of the year 

[De_Gambassi 1,225]

Il y a 9 heures , OlympicsFan a déclaré:

What exactly does that mean? You see her as a medal favorite in 2020?

I doubt that she alone will be enough to lead France to a medal in team sprint, so this leaves only keirin and sprint.

In both events we will have Vogel and Morton (who will both be 29 in Tokyo), Ligtlee (who will be 26 in Tokyo), the british girls, the chinese girls and the russian girls. In keirin we will also have Degrendele. Grabosch was born in 1998 while Gros was born in 1999, we saw at the recent world championships how big the gap between those two is, so i honestly wouldn't expect any medals from Gros in Tokyo.

 

 She was not 100%, coming back from a shoulder injury. When fit, at the last euro championship in Berlin, she did beat Grabosh in the semi final...

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor 32 Minuten schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

 She was not 100%, coming back from a shoulder injury. When fit, at the last euro championship in Berlin, she did beat Grabosh in the semi final...

Did any athlete in track cycling peak for european championships ... EVER?

[Werloc 3,171]

Well, let's say that I'm going to be very very optimistic and I'm predicting the best Olympics for team Lithuania with my guess:

2 medals in Athletics (without any injuries, Gudžius and Palšytė should be going there among the favourites)

1 in Canoeing Sprint (well, we always have a lot of finalists in canoeing, so expecting a medal is not too far-fetched)

1 in any fighting sport like Boxing, Judo, Wrestling or perhaps even Karate

1 in Cycling-Track (my hopes are with Krupeckaitė on this one, she always chokes at the Olympics, but a boy can dream)

1 in Modern Pentathlon (even if Asadauskaitė does not manage to win, we still have Kinderis or even Venčkauskaitė that took 4th place a couple of days ago in her comeback to Pentathlon, so she'll only get better)

2 in Rowing (we have a lot of great rowing teams, so I'm hoping that things won't change drastically in two years)

2 in Swimming (I think that expecting 1 medal from Meilutytė and 1 medal from fastly improving Rapšys is not too far fetched either, plus we also have a few others that could surprise)

 

Anyways, that would be a total tally of 10 medals and that would be a CRAZY big deal for Lithuania, because we usually end up with 4-6 medals, but my prediction should be fairly realistic, regarding that no one chokes or that Asadauskaitė doesn't get a weird horse in riding

[De_Gambassi 1,225]

il y a 17 minutes, OlympicsFan a déclaré:

Did any athlete in track cycling peak for european championships ... EVER?

 

Do any track cyclist peak for anything else than the olympics these days ?

 

Anyway, just have a look at the 2017 WC then if you're not convinced.

 

 

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor 3 Stunden schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

Do any track cyclist peak for anything else than the olympics these days ?

 

Anyway, just have a look at the 2017 WC then if you're not convinced.

 

 

I think all the medallists focused on the world championships this year, probably many other too. I think apart from GB, New Zealand, Australia + maybe Ligtlee everyone focused on this event.

What does 2017 WC or even 2017 EC have to do with the shape they are currently in? Grabosch was about 0.25 faster in qualification than last year, that's a huge improvement. The fact that she trains with Vogel every day gives her a huge advantage, i first want to see Gros getting the same results at senior level before i put Gros in the same category. Even if she would be on the same level as Grabosch, there are many other riders to consider, since the british girls + Ligtlee were missing and the russian/chinese girls seemed completely out of shape. She has a chance to win a medal in 2 years, but acting as if she is a safe bet or even a medal favorite is completely insane given her results so far. Out of the top 4 from the olympics only 1 athlete was here, all of those girls will be young enough to compete again in Tokyo. It probably would be best to postpone this discussion at least until the end of next year's world championships ...

 

[De_Gambassi 1,225]

il y a 31 minutes, OlympicsFan a déclaré:

I think all the medallists focused on the world championships this year, probably many other too. I think apart from GB, New Zealand, Australia + maybe Ligtlee everyone focused on this event.

What does 2017 WC or even 2017 EC have to do with the shape they are currently in? Grabosch was about 0.25 faster in qualification than last year, that's a huge improvement. The fact that she trains with Vogel every day gives her a huge advantage, i first want to see Gros getting the same results at senior level before i put Gros in the same category. Even if she would be on the same level as Grabosch, there are many other riders to consider, since the british girls + Ligtlee were missing and the russian/chinese girls seemed completely out of shape. She has a chance to win a medal in 2 years, but acting as if she is a safe bet or even a medal favorite is completely insane given her results so far. Out of the top 4 from the olympics only 1 athlete was here, all of those girls will be young enough to compete again in Tokyo. It probably would be best to postpone this discussion at least until the end of next year's world championships ...

 

 

1) Because she was not 100%, recovering from injury (again), making her 2017 results the only ones really worth to be considered.

 

2) Yes, thank you...