How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2018 version)

[DaniSRB 899]

 

It's time to make early prediction. Post Olympic year is done and we are entering qualification period.

[vinipereira 3,419]

Super early predictions indeed, but let's see.

 

I guess Brazil's situation can be compared only to Greece among the recent hosts:

 

Greece
Medals in Sydney: 13 (4 golds)
Medals in Athens: 16 (6 golds)
Medals in Beijing: 3 (no golds)

 

Brazil:
Medals in London: 17 (3 golds)
Medals in Rio: 19 (7 golds)
Medals in Tokyo: ???

 

If we're talking about total medals, Brazil and Greece didn't improve a lot at home compared to the previous edition, but had a very good result counting gold medals only. I expect a fall of those numbers for Tokyo, maybe not so big like Greece's, but right now I'm predicting 12 medals. (for this prediction, I won't predict the "colors", because it's too early for this)

 

Sports that gaves us medals in almost every edition since 1996

 

Volleyball/Beach Volleyball: 2 to 3 medals should be reachable.
Judo: 2 to 3 medals. I think we have a good chance at the new team event.
Football: 1 medal, but now that we have a gold, will we care to send the best team?
Sailing: 1 medal.

 

Total: 5-8 medals

 

 

Sports that occasionally gave us medals in the last two decades

 

Athletics/Swimming: I think we can reach 2 medals from the two big sports combined, or at least 1 (Open water?).
Canoeing: 1 medal should be possible if Isaquias mantains his level.
Boxing/Taekwondo: 1 medal, but I could easily see Brazil getting none here.
Equestrian/Gymnastics/Modern Pentathlon/Shooting: maybe 1 medal among these.

 

Total: 2-5 medals

 

 

The other sports (including the "new" ones)

 

Basketball: the only other sport not previously mentioned in which we have medals. Pretty sure we won't return to the podium in Tokyo (we won't even qualify).
Karate/Skateboarding/Surfing: If everything goes according to plan, we should get at least 2 medals among those. If not, at least 1 medal.
Other sports: unless some new name rises, I don't think we will medal in a new sport (except for the ones included for the first time in Tokyo). Tennis should be a possibility, but Melo/Soares aren't great playing together.

 

Total: 1-2 medals

 

Pessimistic: 8 medals
Optmistic: 15 medals
Early prediction: 12 medals

 

[intoronto 5,848]

For Canada this has to be the most successful Olympics minus La84.

 

I would estimate 23-26 medals.

[LDOG 2,418]

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Edited February 3, 2019 by LDOG

[Agger 1,664]

I would guess 10-12 medals for Denmark seems reasonable to believe in.

[De_Gambassi 1,225]

New sports/events should help to bring us to ~45 medals. If Paris 2024 brings its first fruits we may look at ~50 medals.

[DaniSRB 899]

  On 1/18/2018 at 10:27 AM, De_Gambassi said:

New sports/events should help to bring us to ~45 medals. If Paris 2024 brings its first fruits we may look at ~50 medals.

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were people in France satisfied with 2016 performance? As international French supporter,  10 golds for me were very little , and that disaster in track cycling 

[De_Gambassi 1,225]

  On 1/18/2018 at 11:44 AM, DaniSRB said:

were people in France satisfied with 2016 performance? As international French supporter,  10 golds for me were very little , and that disaster in track cycling 

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The early Rio days were a disaster (something like one medal after four days), so at the end of the day, it was ok/satisfactory (considering the early days, it could have been soooooooo much worse).

 

IIRC, 42 medals was the objective which would have been a record in modern days (which now have been beaten again by... Beijing 08 thanks to doping cases ) Golds were lacking a bit indeed, but the overall 7th spot in the medals table was judged fine..

 

Track cycling was indeed a disaster (only one bronze medal). It's the one sport (whith perhaps swimming) where we should gain a lot in Tokyo (if anything, Mathilde Gros should make sure of it). Boxing (6 medals) will certainly take a hit, but the introcution of Karate will hopefully compensate it.

[dcro 10,210]

  On 1/18/2018 at 12:04 PM, De_Gambassi said:

 

The early Rio days were a disaster (something like one medal after four days), so at the end of the day, it was ok/satisfactory (considering the early days, it could have been soooooooo much worse).

 

IIRC, 42 medals was the objective which would have been a record in modern days (which now have been beaten again by... Beijing 08 thanks to doping cases ) Golds were lacking a bit indeed, but the overall 7th spot in the medals table was judged fine..

 

Track cycling was indeed a disaster (only one bronze medal). It's the one sport (whith perhaps swimming) where we should gain a lot in Tokyo (if anything, Mathilde Gros should make sure of it). Boxing (6 medals) will certainly take a hit, but the introcution of Karate will hopefully compensate it.

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Certain equestrian medals were handed out on the 4th day...

[De_Gambassi 1,225]

  On 1/18/2018 at 12:15 PM, dcro said:

 

Certain equestrian medals were handed out on the 4th day...

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You... have a great memory. The 4th day was ineed great with five medals, including the two equestrian ones. We only had one before that day.