website statistics
Jump to content
  • Register/Login on Totallympics!

    Sign up to Totallympics to get full access to our website.

     

    Registration is free and allows you to participate in our community. You will then be able to reply to threads and access all pages.

     

    If you encounter any issues in the registration process, please send us a message in the Contact Us page.

     

    We are excited to see you on Totallympics, the home of Olympic Sports!

     

Winter Olympic Games Beijing 2022 Early Qualification Predictions


Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, heywoodu said:

Any reason for that? I've heard German Madrazo's name quite often in the past few years, part of the infamous Project Bogota to qualify for Pyeongchang, did he grow his participation into some attention for the sport? :p 

Well, he received a lot of publicity after he competed at Pyeongchang, and some people started training, aiming to compete at the Olympics. Between late 2018 - early2020, between 3-5 skiers, a woman included, managed to attend cross country competitions in USA, Canada and even Finland, and this year finally one of them finished with less than 300 points in one of them.

According to Chef of Mission, they will support cross country skiers all through the qualification period (as well as the alpine skiers and our skaters), so they can obtain a quota.

I know Mexico is far from expecting a medal at the Winter Games in the next 20 years at least, but I think establishing a small group of athletes capable of fighting for a spot is worth it.

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-347316
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mrv86 said:

I know Mexico is far from expecting a medal at the Winter Games in the next 20 years at least, but I think establishing a small group of athletes capable of fighting for a spot is worth it.

As arguably the world's leading non-Brazilian follower of Brazilian women's cross-country, I could not agree more with this :d 

.

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-347334
Share on other sites

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

:ALB Albania - 1

:ASA American Samoa - 1

:AND Andorra - 5

:ARG Argentina - 9

:ARM Armenia - 4

:AUS Australia - 34

:AUT Austria - 110

:AZE Azerbaijan - 3

:BLR Belarus - 38

:BEL Belgium - 18

:BOL Bolivia - 2

:BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5

:BRA Brazil - 8

:BUL Bulgaria - 15

:CAN Canada - 206

:CAY Cayman Islands - 1

:CHI Chile - 3

:CHN China - 167

:COL Colombia - 1

:CRO Croatia - 9

:CYP Cyprus - 1

:CZE Czech Republic - 114

:DEN Denmark - 3

:ECU Ecuador - 2

:EST Estonia - 26

:FIN Finland - 98

:FRA France - 97

:GEO Georgia - 7

:GER Germany - 181

:GBR Great Britain - 62

:GRE Greece - 5

:HAI Haiti - 1

:HKG Hong Kong - 3

:HUN Hungary - 13

:ISL Iceland - 5

:IRI Iran - 4

:IRL Ireland - 4

:ISR Israel - 4

:ITA Italy - 129

:JAM Jamaica - 1

:JPN Japan - 134

:KAZ Kazakhstan - 31

:KEN Kenya - 1

:KOS Kosovo - 1

:KGZ Kyrgyzstan - 1

:LAT Latvia - 61

:LBN Lebanon - 3

:LIE Liechtenstein - 6

:LTU Lithuania - 12

:LUX Luxembourg

:MAD Madagascar - 1

:MAS Malaysia - 2

:MLT Malta - 1

:MEX Mexico - 2

:MDA Moldova - 5

:MON Monaco - 6

:MGL Mongolia - 2

:MNE Montenegro - 3

:MAR Morocco - 1

:NED Netherlands - 42

:NZL New Zealand - 16

:NGR Nigeria - 2

:PRK North Korea - 2

:MKD North Macedonia - 3

:NOR Norway - 115

:PAK Pakistan - 2

:PER Peru - 2

:PHI Philippines - 1

:POL Poland - 51

:POR Portugal - 2

:PUR Puerto Rico - 1

:ROU Romania - 21

:RUS Russia - 209

:SMR San Marino - 1

:SRB Serbia - 5

:SVK Slovakia - 48

:SLO Slovenia - 45

:RSA South Africa - 1

:KOR South Korea - 69

:ESP Spain - 13

:SWE Sweden - 117

:SUI Switzerland - 178

:TPE Chinese Taipei - 3

:THA Thailand - 4

:TLS Timor-Leste - 1

:TTO Trinidad and Tobago - 1

:TUR Turkey - 6

:UKR Ukraine - 41

:USA United States - 219

:UZB Uzbekistan - 1

:ISV Virgin Islands - 1

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-348258
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

 

 

Great job. Thank you!!!

 

Could you please share some details - how did you make this simulation? E.g. what 51 people (who and in which sports/events will represent POL?) ???

#TeamMoura-heywoodu

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-348286
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

:SVK Slovakia - 48

may god hear you ! because that could only mean one thing, a very very veeery good thing happened at the end of august :d

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-348292
Share on other sites

I am not a big fan of winter sports, but I will try...

 

 

:BRA Brazil

Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2022 Beijing

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (2) - Usually we have at least one man and one woman competing. There is a guy with some potential.

 

Cross Country Skiing  (2) - Also, usually a man and a woman.

 

Ski Jumping  (0) - No way

Nordic Combined  (0) - No way

Freestyle Skiing  (0) - we had two athletes training for this sport for Sochi, but a terrible accident happened with one of them.

 

I think the other athlete participated at 2018, but I am not sure.

 

I dont know how it is now.

 

Snowboarding  (1) - Isabel retired, we have a young guy on cross. I dont know if he will be able to qualify for this Olympic.

 

Biathlon  (0) - I am not sure, but I believe that we dont have big chances here.

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (0) - I dont know any athlete

Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - I dont know any athlete

Figure Skating  (1) - Isadora Willians probably will qualify again.

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (0) - I dont know any athlete

Skeleton  (1) - Nicole is in a great performance.

Bobsleigh  (5) - 1 women's monobob and I am expecting 4-man

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0) - we love curling here, but no way hahaha

Ice Hockey  (0) - we dont even qualify in Field Hockey hahaha

 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (12)

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (5)

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (7)

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-348318
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, rafalgorka said:

Great job. Thank you!!!

 

Could you please share some details - how did you make this simulation? E.g. what 51 people (who and in which sports/events will represent POL?) ???

I mostly looked at recent results and compared it to the sport's qualification system. I didn't keep tabs on specific people since for some sports it's done through nation rankings (and the project was ambitious enough already). I also assumed every nation will accept all their quotas (which likely won't happen).

 

For Poland the sport breakdown is...

 

Alpine Skiing - 3

Biathlon - 8

Cross-country Skiing - 7

Figure Skating - 2

Luge - 4

Nordic Combined - 4

Short Track Speed Skating - 4

Ski Jumping - 7

Snowboarding - 3

Speed Skating - 9

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-348320
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JoshMartini007 said:

I mostly looked at recent results and compared it to the sport's qualification system. I didn't keep tabs on specific people since for some sports it's done through nation rankings (and the project was ambitious enough already). I also assumed every nation will accept all their quotas (which likely won't happen).

 

For Poland the sport breakdown is...

 

Alpine Skiing - 3

Biathlon - 8

Cross-country Skiing - 7

Figure Skating - 2

Luge - 4

Nordic Combined - 4

Short Track Speed Skating - 4

Ski Jumping - 7

Snowboarding - 3

Speed Skating - 9

No chance. I will be happy if just 1 athlete will qualify, most of our guys retired two seasons ago.

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-348339
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, rybak said:

No chance. I will be happy if just 1 athlete will qualify, most of our guys retired two seasons ago.

In the qualification document, they wanted 10 nations to participate in the team event (they reserved quotas to ensure that) so Poland benefited from that. It's either them or Estonia, the depth in Nordic Combined is very shallow.

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-348358
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

:AZE Azerbaijan - 3

:CAY Cayman Islands - 1

:COL Colombia - 1

:ECU Ecuador - 2

:JAM Jamaica - 1

:MAD Madagascar - 1

:MAS Malaysia - 2

:MDA Moldova - 5

:MON Monaco - 6

:NGR Nigeria - 2

 

Great job!

Can you elaborate on these specific countries please, as in which sports?

Link to comment
https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/5255-winter-olympic-games-beijing-2022-early-qualification-predictions/page/3/#findComment-348370
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Latest Posts around Totallympics

    • Those are the national junior championships, national championships are in Steinkjer, starting tomorrow: FIS | Steinkjer (NOR) - Event Details - Cross-Country
    • Nice for them, but also kind of too bad they pick the exact same two as last time. Would have been nice to see Regina Martinez for example (although I'm not sure that would have been logistically possible, depending on how they're going to do the flag bearer thing in the first place).
    • Tuesday January 13th, 2026   Preliminary Round Last Day Schedule   Group A Atlantic Standard Time (GMT -4)   Canada  vs  Sweden Period-by-Period: January 13th 2026 h. 17:00, Sport and Wellness Centre, Cape Breton   Hungary  vs  Switzerland Period-by-Period: January 13th 2026 h. 20:30, Sport and Wellness Centre, Cape Breton     Group B Atlantic Standard Time (GMT -4)   Czechia  vs  Slovakia Period-by-Period: January 13th 2026 h. 10:00, Sport and Wellness Centre, Cape Breton   United States  vs  Finland Period-by-Period: January 13th 2026 h. 13:30, Sport and Wellness Centre, Cape Breton
    • Monday January 12th, 2026   Preliminary Round Day 3 Results     Group A Atlantic Standard Time (GMT -4)   Sweden   3 - 0   Switzerland Period-by-Period: 2-0, 1-0, 0-0 January 12th 2026 h. 11:00, Sport and Wellness Centre, Cape Breton   Canada   14 - 0   Hungary Period-by-Period: 4-0, 7-0, 3-0 January 12th 2026 h. 18:00, Sport and Wellness Centre, Cape Breton   Group A Provisional Standing After Day 3   Nation P W(OTW) L(OTL) GF GA +/- Pt. Canada 2 2(0) 0(0) 23 0 +23 6 Sweden 2 2(0) 0(0) 7 1 +6 6 Switzerland 2 0(0) 2(0) 0 12 -12 0 Hungary 2 0(0) 2(0) 1 18 -17 0   Nations Qualified for the Quarterfinals   Canada Czech Republic Finland Hungary Slovakia Sweden Switzerland United States
    • One of my favorite songs from the early 2000s that I listened to on a cassette on my walkman      
    • For me 20 medals will be good. And if more there are? Super. However, I prefer not to get my hopes up too much, so as not to be disappointed later.
    • If you're still taking suggestions, I tought the following:   Team Madison format.   17 teams of 2 "riders", randomly drawn. Teams can be named for famous "endurance" track cyclists. 4 intermediate "sprints", one after a voting block, in which the top 8 teams will score according to this formula: (10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 & 1). The order in which team score for a sprint are determined by the total number of "medals" won by both members of the team during the block. Ranking will be sorted according to the number of gold medals, then silver, then bronze. If there's two or more teams with same number of points, the medals of best individual performer of each team will be considered to break the tie. If the tie remains, then team's total points during the block will be used to break it. If the team fails to receive a single medal during each block, it will be considered to "lose lap" and 20 points will be substracted from their score. If the team fails to score at least 1 point during each block, it will be an automatic DNF for the team. If both members of the team get a medal from a single jury, it will be considered to "gain lap" and 20 points will be added to their score. A team can only win an additional lap per voting block. After the 4 intermediate, a "final" sprint will be recorded, in which points will be doubled (20, 16, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4 & 2). Ranking for the final sprint will take into account the total medals won during the event.   What do you think?
    • I don't medal pick, per se... I assign probabilities/expected-values and total them up. So I don't have a gold medal estimate... but if you want one, divide those numbers by three and you'll be pretty close!   I imagine Norway, Italy and Netherlands and maybe Canada will probably skew a bit higher on golds, and US, Germany, and Sweden will skew a little lower... so maybe: Norway - 14 US - 11 Germany - 11 Italy - 11 Canada - 10 Austria - 8 Netherlands - 8 Japan - 7 Sweden - 6 France.- 6   I was surprised seeing Italy come in that high, I was figuring 22-23, but I guess they've been do well on the World Cups. 
    • If you were to predict top- 10 for the number of gold medals, what would it look like?     For me, as an Italian, any result for Italy: +20 medals would be OK (if that will include 6-7 gold medals). The trauma of Turin 2006 is too great
    • Doesn't really help that two of the strongest countries in that particular sport are banned from the team event for well known reasons.
×
×
  • Create New...