Alpine Skiing Discussion | Qualification to Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026 Road to Milano Cortina 2026

[intoronto 6,604]

5 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

Had some time to check the work of whoever's been updating the alpine skiing olympic qualification page on wikipedia and I can confirm that the list is fully accurate.

 

So we officially have the following nations that have earned basic quotas. Remember that the basic quota is earned by an athlete who has

• an average result <= 80 points over the skier's best 2 downhill or super-g races during the qualification period
• an average result <= 120 points over the skier's best 5 giant slalom or slalom races during the qualification period

 

Basic quota for both men and women (50 nations):

 

Basic quota for men only (17 nations):

 

Basic quota for women only (4 nations):

Do you know if there are other nations close to a basic quota?

[heywoodu 16,142]

As per usual, the quotas can already be counted as quotas that will be reallocated  

[Grassmarket 4,107]

On 2/4/2025 at 7:24 AM, heywoodu said:

I had totally missed it, but Tereza Nova suffered a bad crash in training for the Garmisch downhill a bit over a week ago, and was kept in a coma. Can't find anything more recent, not sure that's a good sign or not...

It has obviously been really bad, but a glimpse of hope at last - she's out of her coma and is ready to travel home. 

 

Czech skier Tereza Nova awoken from induced coma four weeks after fall - BBC Sport

[JoshMartini007 2,804]

Here's the first update of my medal predictor for alpine events using results up to the World Championships.

 

- As per Olympic rules, only the four best athletes per nation are currently considered in the simulation (until NOC confirms who is competing or an athlete is ruled out of the Olympics due to injury/ban/etc.)

- For the combined event, I just took the best performing athletes from each nation in the downhill and slalom events and simulated their combined performance. I then proceeded with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best athletes for the nation (if applicable)

- Each event is simulated 1000 times and the medalists counted. Eventually I plan to do a 10,000x simulations for more robustness, but as I may still tweak the formula I don't want to waste processing time each time I run the simulation.

- While I did include the chance for an athlete to DNF the race it is currently a flat rate for all athletes. This currently benefits certain athletes which are well known to DNF races more often than expected.

 

Overall, this showcases the unpredictability of the sport and the accuracy difficulties predictors like GraceNote have when listing only the top 3. Looking at the percentages, for many of the events you'd actually only expect 1/3 to actually medal more often than not.

 

I want to create predictors for the other sports so I will only update this periodically.

 

Men's Downhill

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Marco Odermatt	18%	13%	11%	42%
2		Franjo Von Allmen	17%	12%	10%	39%
3		Alexis Monney	11%	10%	8%	29%
4		Miha Hrobat	9%	9%	7%	25%
5		Cameron Alexander	8%	9%	7%	24%
6		Vincent Kriechmayr	7%	5%	8%	19%
7		Dominik Paris	5%	6%	7%	18%
8		Justin Murisier	6%	5%	6%	18%
9		Daniel Hemetsberger	4%	4%	4%	12%
10		James Crawford	3%	4%	4%	11%

 

Men's Super-G

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Marco Odermatt	30%	16%	11%	57%
2		Stefan Rogentin	11%	11%	10%	32%
3		Raphael Haaser	10%	9%	11%	30%
4		Vincent Kriechmayr	7%	11%	10%	28%
5		Fredrik Moeller	7%	10%	10%	27%
6		Franjo Von Allmen	7%	7%	7%	21%
7		Mattia Casse	8%	6%	7%	20%
8		Cameron Alexander	6%	5%	6%	16%
9		James Crawford	4%	4%	4%	13%
10		Dominik Paris	2%	3%	4%	9%

 

Men's Giant Slalom

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Marco Odermatt	22%	12%	10%	45%
2		Alexander Steen Olsen	15%	13%	9%	37%
3		Loic Meillard	11%	11%	8%	30%
4		Henrik Kristoffersen	8%	9%	9%	25%
5		Thomas Tumler	5%	7%	7%	19%
6		Zan Kranjec	4%	5%	5%	14%
7		Luca De Aliprandini	4%	5%	5%	14%
8		Lucas Pinheiro Braathen	4%	4%	6%	14%
9		Stefan Brennsteiner	3%	5%	6%	14%
10		Atle McGrath	4%	5%	5%	13%

 

Men's Slalom

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Clement Noel	31%	16%	9%	55%
2		Atle McGrath	11%	13%	10%	33%
3		Henrik Kristoffersen	11%	11%	9%	31%
4		Timon Haugan	8%	9%	10%	27%
5		Loic Meillard	8%	10%	8%	26%
6		Manuel Feller	8%	8%	9%	24%
7		Linus Strasser	5%	5%	8%	19%
8		Lucas Pinheiro Braathen	5%	6%	7%	18%
9		Fabio Gstrein	3%	3%	5%	11%
10		Kristoffer Jakobsen	2%	3%	5%	10%

 

Men's Combined

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Marco Odermatt	29%	16%	12%	57%
		Loic Meillard
2		Nils Allegre	20%	15%	12%	46%
		Clement Noel
3		Vincent Kriechmayr	13%	13%	12%	37%
		Manuel Feller
4		Franjo Von Allmen	9%	12%	10%	31%
		Daniel Yule
5		Alexis Monney	6%	8%	8%	22%
		Tanguy Nef
6		Daniel Hemetsberger	6%	7%	9%	21%
		Fabio Gstrein
7		Dominik Paris	4%	6%	6%	15%
		Alex Vinatzer
8		Adrian Sejersted	3%	6%	5%	15%
		Atle McGrath
9		Fredrik Moeller	3%	4%	6%	12%
		Henrik Kristoffersen
10		Cyprien Sarrazin	2%	3%	4%	9%
		Steven Amiez

 

 

[JoshMartini007 2,804]

Women's Downhill

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Sofia Goggia	29%	16%	10%	55%
2		Ester Ledecka	13%	13%	11%	37%
3		Federica Brignone	11%	12%	10%	34%
4		Cornelia Huetter	11%	12%	9%	32%
5		Lara Gut-Behrami	6%	8%	9%	23%
6		Lauren Macuga	8%	6%	8%	21%
7		Breezy Johnson	5%	6%	6%	18%
8		Corinne Suter	5%	6%	7%	18%
9		Laura Pirovano	3%	4%	4%	10%
10		Marta Bassino	1%	4%	5%	10%

 

Women's Super-G

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Federica Brignone	28%	19%	13%	60%
2		Lara Gut-Behrami	23%	17%	16%	56%
3		Sofia Goggia	22%	18%	12%	53%
4		Lauren Macuga	8%	12%	12%	32%
5		Kajsa Lie	5%	7%	9%	21%
6		Cornelia Huetter	3%	5%	10%	18%
7		Stephanie Venier	3%	6%	7%	16%
8		Elena Curtoni	2%	4%	6%	13%
9		Marta Bassino	2%	4%	6%	12%
10		Ester Ledecka	1%	2%	2%	5%

 

Women's Giant Slalom

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Federica Brignone	36%	21%	11%	68%
2		Alice Robinson	20%	18%	16%	53%
3		Sara Hector	16%	16%	11%	43%
4		Paula Moltzan	6%	7%	9%	23%
5		Julia Scheib	7%	6%	8%	22%
6		Zrinka Ljutic	4%	6%	7%	16%
7		Thea Stjernesund	3%	5%	7%	15%
8		Lara Colturi	2%	5%	7%	13%
9		Lara Gut-Behrami	2%	4%	5%	11%
10		Nina O'Brien	1%	3%	5%	9%

 

Women's Slalom

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Wendy Holdener	24%	15%	10%	50%
2		Mikaela Shiffrin	18%	15%	14%	46%
3		Camille Rast	14%	14%	12%	40%
4		Zrinka Ljutic	12%	13%	12%	37%
5		Lena Duerr	7%	7%	8%	21%
6		Melanie Meillard	4%	6%	7%	17%
7		Katharina Liensberger	4%	6%	6%	16%
8		Paula Moltzan	4%	4%	7%	15%
9		Anna Swenn Larsson	4%	4%	6%	14%
10		Emma Aicher	3%	4%	5%	12%

 

Women's Combined

Rank	Nation	Name	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1		Lara Gut-Behrami	32%	20%	13%	66%
		Wendy Holdener
2		Lauren Macuga	25%	19%	15%	58%
		Mikaela Shiffrin
3		Corinne Suter	16%	18%	15%	49%
		Camille Rast
4		Cornelia Huetter	11%	13%	15%	39%
		Katharina Liensberger
5		Breezy Johnson	6%	10%	11%	26%
		Paula Moltzan
6		Kira Weidle-Winkelmann	5%	8%	12%	25%
		Lena Duerr
7		Malorie Blanc	3%	5%	6%	14%
		Melanie Meillard
8		Sofia Goggia	0%	2%	3%	5%
		Martina Peterlini
9		Ilka Stuhec	1%	1%	1%	3%
		Andreja Slokar
10		Mirjam Puchner	1%	1%	2%	3%
		Katharina Huber

 

 

Edited February 20, 2025 by JoshMartini007

[ChandlerMne 1,210]

Again strong performance by Brignone.

 

[evil betty 88]

On 2/18/2025 at 7:17 AM, intoronto said:

Do you know if there are other nations close to a basic quota?

I think Henri Rivers of Jamaica and Francis Ceccarelli of the Philippines are both very close.  Could be others but I think those are the next most likely

[Topicmaster1010 5,722]

On 2/17/2025 at 10:51 PM, Topicmaster1010 said:

Had some time to check the work of whoever's been updating the alpine skiing olympic qualification page on wikipedia and I can confirm that the list is fully accurate.

 

So we officially have the following nations that have earned basic quotas. Remember that the basic quota is earned by an athlete who has

• an average result <= 80 points over the skier's best 2 downhill or super-g races during the qualification period
• an average result <= 120 points over the skier's best 5 giant slalom or slalom races during the qualification period

 

Basic quota for both men and women (50 nations):

 

Basic quota for men only (17 nations):

 

Basic quota for women only (4 nations):

Some new basic quotas since the last update:

 

Men:

 

 Saudi Arabia

FIS | Fayik ABDI - Athlete Biography - Alpine Skiing

 

 Philippines

FIS | Francis CECCARELLI - Athlete Biography - Alpine Skiing

 

[BruT06 49]

https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/v2/quota/list/owg/al/2026

[evil betty 88]

39 minutes ago, BruT06 said:

https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/v2/quota/list/owg/al/2026

very cool. some strange omissions from the list though and I don't understand adding Popovic from Croatia as being eligible.

Edited March 21, 2025 by evil betty