Swimming at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Topicmaster1010 5,352]

1:44.14 for Lukas Märtens in the 200m freestyle, #7 performer of all time.

[dullard 743]

Just now, Topicmaster1010 said:

1:44.14 for Lukas Märtens in the 200m freestyle, #7 performer of all time.

I was just typing up a post about this. What a swim! I still think Popovici will get back near his 2022 best but Märtens has to be considered the favourite because he's already put up a gold medal worthy time.

 

He also went 1:44.89 in the heats so making 1:44s routine now.

[Epic Failure 359]

I'd not be making Märtens the favourite yet, simply because he hasn't shown at a World/Olympic level that he can definitely get the pacing right through 3 rounds of the 200m yet.

 

He's in the group of favourites for sure but I don't think these 2 swims today take him clear of the pack yet. They are still his only ever sub 1:45 swims at the distance, bar a relay split, I believe. Hwang, Richards and Scott would all still fancy their chances I reckon.

 

If Popovici is at his 22 best, he's away and gone obviously. 

[Epic Failure 359]

On 4/26/2024 at 4:55 AM, dullard said:

That's how Australia used to do it and they've been much more successful since they changed. It's hard to say if the change helped or if Australia's just going through a bit of a purple patch. 

 

Canada is moving their trials to June starting next year probably because Australia (who copied the US) has done so well.

If memory served Britain moved their champs to the US model one year, then did appallingly at the subsequent WCs. So they promptly moved it back to their usual window the following year.

[dullard 743]

3 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

If memory served Britain moved their champs to the US model one year, then did appallingly at the subsequent WCs. So they promptly moved it back to their usual window the following year.

Which year was that?

[dantm 32]

34 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

I'd not be making Märtens the favourite yet, simply because he hasn't shown at a World/Olympic level that he can definitely get the pacing right through 3 rounds of the 200m yet.

 

He's in the group of favourites for sure but I don't think these 2 swims today take him clear of the pack yet. They are still his only ever sub 1:45 swims at the distance, bar a relay split, I believe. Hwang, Richards and Scott would all still fancy their chances I reckon.

 

If Popovici is at his 22 best, he's away and gone obviously. 

The 200m Free is stacked with so many contenders at 1.44 it’s nearly impossible to pick.

ignoring Popovici, 1.43 low will probably win it.

its crazy that Thorpe was doing 1.44.0, 20 years ago

 

[Epic Failure 359]

17 minutes ago, dullard said:

Which year was that?

2013. We won one medal in the pool that year, a bronze from Fran Halsall in the 50 free.

 

We've always been a bit up and down over the years, but that was particularly bad.

[dullard 743]

2 minutes ago, dantm said:

The 200m Free is stacked with so many contenders at 1.44 it’s nearly impossible to pick.

ignoring Popovici, 1.43 low will probably win it.

its crazy that Thorpe was doing 1.44.0, 20 years ago

 

Who's going 1:43 low besides Popovici?

[Epic Failure 359]

3 minutes ago, dantm said:

The 200m Free is stacked with so many contenders at 1.44 it’s nearly impossible to pick.

ignoring Popovici, 1.43 low will probably win it.

its crazy that Thorpe was doing 1.44.0, 20 years ago

 

If we ignore Popovici, I'd be amazed if a 1.43 high didn't win it.

 

For whatever reason, the 200m free seems to have settled to the 1.44 lows.

 

There's only been, what, 4 non super-suited swims under 1.44 ever? Phelps in 07, Agnel in 12 and Popovici's 2 in 22. Even the Thorpedo's time, as great as it was, was an outlier for him - he was consistently in the 1:44.7 range but only once dipped down to that 1:44.0 time.

 

So it feels like if someone can get the perfect swim anywhere in the 1:43s, they are going to win. But those swims have only been coming along about once every 5 years since the turn of the century!!

[dantm 32]

Its an Olympic year

There is a large amount of 1.44 swimmers

Its possible that 1.44 wont medal

Therefore someone must go 1.43

Someone will pop

I really dont know who but this event has been stagnent for way too long