Paris 2024 - Early Predictions - Day by Day

[orangeman 2,027]

  On 9/24/2023 at 10:58 AM, rafalgorka said:

Thanks for your comment! You are probably right.

 

My explaination for 2. Ledecky 3. McIntosh would be: Ledecky uses her experience in the final, not chasing Titmus too hard from the beginning and concentrating on beating the Canadian. And McIntosh will be nervous as hell, not as much as in the 2023 WCH final but still... Fortunately, this time she gets bronze. But no worries - SPOILERS ALERT - McIntosh will not leave my Imaginary Paris olympics without gold... :-)

 

Gold for AUS in 4x100m relay - because Chalmers won't be too far away when he starts the anchor leg and he will do his magic trick again...

 

Anyway, Aussies on the top of the medal table after Day One. Congrats!

 

Best result for POL - hmmm.. 5th place in Mixed 10m Air Rifle Shooting event...

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As a biased Canadian, I think Summer uses Fukuoka as inspiration to be ready for the 400m in Paris. Also, she won't be peaking for the nationals like this year, she will be peaking for Paris. I will never underestimate Ledecky or Titmus and they can come out hard, too (as they did in Fukuoka) but I see Summer taking her WR back in this race, setting the tone for her domination over the week.  And if she wins the 400m, I see her helping Canada stay on the podium for the relay later that night. But that depends more on the state of Ruck (and to a lesser extent Oleksiak who always rises to the occasion).  

[dullard 735]

  On 9/25/2023 at 12:29 AM, orangeman said:

As a biased Canadian, I think Summer uses Fukuoka as inspiration to be ready for the 400m in Paris. Also, she won't be peaking for the nationals like this year, she will be peaking for Paris. I will never underestimate Ledecky or Titmus and they can come out hard, too (as they did in Fukuoka) but I see Summer taking her WR back in this race, setting the tone for her domination over the week.  And if she wins the 400m, I see her helping Canada stay on the podium for the relay later that night. But that depends more on the state of Ruck (and to a lesser extent Oleksiak who always rises to the occasion).  

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Wouldn't be surprised to see Ruck get back close to her best now it looks like she's training at ASU.

[Josh 11,137]

All of my predictions are made under the assumption that Russia won’t be competing.
 

Day 1  (July 27, 2024)

 

Diving- Women’s 3m Synchronized Springboard 
Gold- Chen Yiwen/Chang Yani

Silver-  Sarah Bacon/Kassidy Cook

Bronze-  Pamela Ware/Mia Valee

 

Fencing- Women’s Individual Epee

Gold-  Marie Florence Candassamy

Silver-  Sun Yiwen

Bronze-  Song Se-ra

 

Fencing- Men’s Individual Sabre

Gold-  Áron Szilágyi

Silver-  Sandro Bazade

Bronze-  Eli Dershwitz

 

If there’s a surprise medalist here, I’m going with  Szabo. 

 

Judo- Women’s -48kg

Gold-  Natsumi Tsunoda

Silver-  Milica Nikolić

Bronze-  Shirine Boukli

Bronze-  Abiba Azuzhakynova

 

Judo- Men’s -60kg

Gold- Naohiso Takato

Silver-  Francisco Garrigos

Bronze-  Lee Ha-rim

Bronze-  Dilshot Khalmatov (Surprise medalist)

 

Road Cycling- Men’s Time Trial

Gold-  Remco Evenepoel

Silver-  Filippo Ganna

Bronze-  Josh Tarling

 

Road Cycling- Women’s Time Trial

Gold-  Chloe Dygert

Silver-  Marlen Reusser

Bronze-  Ellen Van Dijk

 

Rugby Sevens- Men’s Tournament

Gold-  New Zealand

Silver-  Fiji

Bronze-  Australia

Shooting- Mixed Team 10m Air Rifle

Gold-  China

Silver-  Korea

Bronze-  India

 

Skatebording- Men’s Street

Gold-  Nyjah Huston

Silver-  Aurelien Giraud

Bronze-  Yuto Horigome

 

Swimming- Men’s 400m Freestyle

Gold-  Sam Short

Silver-  Ahmed Hafnaoui

Bronze-  Lukas Märtens

 

Swimming- Women’s 400m Freestyle

 

Let’s try this again. 

 

Gold-  Summer McIntosh

Silver-  Ariarne Titmus

Bronze-  Katie Ledecky

 

Swimming- Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay

 

Gold-  Australia

Silver-  United States

Bronze-  Canada

 

Assuming Ruck and Oleksiak are fully healthy. 
 

Swimming- Men’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay

 

Gold-  United States, with a massive split by Caleb Dressel

Silver-  Australia

Bronze-  Italy

 

Medal Table After Day 1

 3-2-2– 7

 2-2-1– 5

 2-1-0– 3

 2-0-1– 3

 1-1-1– 3

 1-0-2– 3

 1-0-0– 1

 1-0-0– 1

 1-0-0– 1

 0-1-2– 3

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

Edited September 25, 2023 by Josh

[Josh 11,137]

  On 9/25/2023 at 12:29 AM, orangeman said:

As a biased Canadian, I think Summer uses Fukuoka as inspiration to be ready for the 400m in Paris. Also, she won't be peaking for the nationals like this year, she will be peaking for Paris. I will never underestimate Ledecky or Titmus and they can come out hard, too (as they did in Fukuoka) but I see Summer taking her WR back in this race, setting the tone for her domination over the week.  And if she wins the 400m, I see her helping Canada stay on the podium for the relay later that night. But that depends more on the state of Ruck (and to a lesser extent Oleksiak who always rises to the occasion).  

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Don’t see McIntosh making that particular relay (at least for finals) if Ruck and Oleksiak are fully healthy, her split wasn’t very good at this years World Championships. Wouldn’t be surprised to see her competing in only one relay (4x200m freestyle) at the Olympics. 

[dullard 735]

  On 9/25/2023 at 2:59 AM, Josh said:

Swimming- Men’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay

 

Gold-  United States, with a massive split by Caleb Dressel

Silver-  Australia

Bronze-  Italy

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GBR gonna DQ again? 

 

[Josh 11,137]

  On 9/25/2023 at 3:26 AM, dullard said:

GBR gonna DQ again? 

 

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Yep. 

[Josh 11,137]

Day 2 (July 28, 2024)

 

Archery- Women’s Team

Gold-  South Korea

Silver-  Germany 

Bronze-  Japan

 

Canoe Slalom- Women’s K1

Gold-  Ricarda Funk

Silver-  Jessica Fox

Bronze-  Mallory Franklin

 

Former Olympic Champion Chourraut finishes in fourth.
 

Fencing- Men’s Individual Epee

Gold- Gergely Siklósi

Silver-  Davide Di Veroli

Bronze-  Romaine Cannone

 

Fencing- Women’s Foil

Gold-  Alice Volpi

Silver-  Lee Kiefer

Bronze-  Arriana Errigo

 

Judo- Women’s -52kg

Gold-  Uta Abe

Silver-  Distria Krasniqi

Bronze-  Diyora Keldiyorova

Bronze-  Amandine Buchard

 

Judo- Men’s -66kg

Gold-  Hifumi Abe

Silver-  Yondoperenlein Baskhüü

Bronze-  An Ba-ul

Bronze-  Varga Margvelashvili

 

Mountain Biking- Women’s Cross Country

Gold-  Pauline Ferrand-Prevot

Silver-  Puck Pieterse

Bronze-  Alessandra Keller

 

Shooting- Men’s 10m Air Pistol

Gold-   Zhang Bowen

Silver-  Damir Milic

Bronze-  Ismail Keles

 

Shooting- Women’s 10m Air Pistol

Gold-  Ranxin Xiang

Silver-  Anna Korakaki

Bronze-  Klaudia Breś

 

Skateboarding- Women’s Street

Gold-  Rayssa Leal

Silver-  Momiji Nishiya

Bronze-  Chloe Covell

 

Swimming- Men’s 400m Individual Medley

Gold-  Leon Marchand

Silver-  Chase Kalisz

Bronze-  Carson Foster

 

Swimming- Women’s 100m Butterfly

Gold-  Maggie MacNeil

Silver-  Torri Huske

Bronze-  Zhang Yufei

 

MacNeil always performs at major Championships, which is why I have her defending her Olympic gold. Coincidentally, this would be the same podium as last year, only change being Huske for second ahead of Yufei. 
 

Swimming- Men’s 100m Breastroke

Gold-  Adam Peaty

Silver-  Qin Haiyang

Bronze-  Nic Fink

 

Assuming Peaty is healthy, he should take this one. Wouldn’t count out Haiyang though. 

 

Medal Table After Day 2

 4-2-1– 7

 4-1-2– 7

 3-5-4– 12

 3-1-3– 7

 2-3-2– 7

 2-0-2– 4

 2-0-0– 2

 1-2-2– 5

 1-1-3– 5

 1-1-1– 3

 1-0-2– 3

 1-0-0– 1

 1-0-0– 1

 1-0-0– 1

 0-2-0– 2

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-1– 2

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-1-0– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

 0-0-1– 1

Edited September 25, 2023 by Josh
Japan instead of Mexico in women’s team archery

[james89 875]

  On 9/25/2023 at 3:04 AM, Josh said:

Don’t see McIntosh making that particular relay (at least for finals) if Ruck and Oleksiak are fully healthy, her split wasn’t very good at this years World Championships. Wouldn’t be surprised to see her competing in only one relay (4x200m freestyle) at the Olympics. 

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I feel like she has a decent shot at being in the 4x100m relay based off her split in the 4x100m medley at this year's World's it was comporable to Rebecca Smith's time from Tokyo 2020 and at this point I'm not sure we have a 4th who can go under 54 seconds although Smith, Harvey and maybe even Jansen could do so.

[rafalgorka 1,634]

Thanks everyone for joining the thread. Feel free to make your complete predictions like @Josh 

but when you want to do it in certain sports only, that would be great as well!!!

[Dragon 1,899]

I have serious doubts whether Adam Peaty will be as good as he was in 2016 and 2021.

But for  I have a good feeling about Zoe Backstedt winning a medal in either the road time trial or the mountain biking.