Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[bestmen 2,907]

3 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

And all....2 of yours.

 

Well, we don't really need to worry about Sedjati, WADA will no doubt take care of him soon enough.

What do you mean by "we" , you put yourself into the group of what 

[heywoodu 16,074]

1 hour ago, JoshMartini007 said:

The other issue which is a lot harder to solve is that some events are more predictable than others. In reality, some events have a near-lock for gold while for others, the favourite may only have around 20% chance of actually winning gold, but in the end both nations are predicted to win 1 gold medal.

 

This sometimes balances out in the overall medal list, but you do get situations where Great Britain is predicted to win six golds in rowing just because their model states they are the favourites even if slight in some events.

 

Yeah, this is the exact problem with this method (which is the most used method because it's the easiest of course).

 

Say a country has a 5% medal chance in every single one of the 331 events. Of course in reality that would very likely lead to quite a few medals, but they wouldn't be near the top-3 favourites in any event and therefore with the Gracenote method they'd end up with exactly zero medals.

[dodge 1,040]

7 hours ago, Faramir said:

Finally found a website where you can see for free Gracenote's VMT with details of all countries:

https://rmcsport.bfmtv.com/jeux-olympiques/tableau-des-medailles/

They have a medal for Ireland for a woman boxer who didn’t qualify (and not the Irish boxer at that weight who did qualify)

[dodge 1,040]

Oh, I see many of you have already done this for other nations 

[Josh 11,647]

5 hours ago, Faramir said:

They even have 8 Chinese podiums in weightlifting. We know since when the qualification system was made public (I think 2022) that the max. number of lifters per country is 6. 

They also have Katzberg winning bronze. Not sure what they’re basing it off, he’s the reigning world champion in men’s hammer throw, undefeated so far in 2024, has the four farthest throws of the year, and is the only one to record a mark above 81m (and he’s consistently in the 80-82m range too)

[Josh 11,647]

4 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

Disasters happen (see GBR rowing Tokyo 2020) but the point is very much that there is no real analysis to justify the disaster prediction here, just toting up medals and then artificially boosting France, without genuinely analysing where the undoubted home bonus might actually play in this instance. Like, the 2024 worlds aquatics results are broadly meaningless - and yes, 2023 Worlds are also too long ago to be entirely reliable - guess what, this games pool will be a little less predictable than usual - there's no sign of analysis here though - even basics like comparing trials results between competitive trials

 

The idea of GBR taking six straight golds in rowing, and no minor medals at all, is risible. Not as risible in getting medals in events and with athletes not actually in the Games (mixed skeet, jess Gadirova), but still, pretty funny.

While I think we can all agree that Worlds this year was a complete joke, I don’t think all of the results were meaningless. Some of the athletes that went to Doha inserted themselves into Olympic medal contention through the times that they produced. Not many however. 

[Siddhartha Talukdar 246]

In case of India, not sure whether to be sad or happy as we win 3 golds which is unprecedented but just 5 medals, a drop from 7 in Tokyo.

Among the medallist, Rudrankksh Patil is poised to win silver in 10m Air Rifle whom we are not sending

[heywoodu 16,074]

24 minutes ago, Josh said:

They also have Katzberg winning bronze. Not sure what they’re basing it off, he’s the reigning world champion in men’s hammer throw, undefeated so far in 2024, has the four farthest throws of the year, and is the only one to record a mark above 81m (and he’s consistently in the 80-82m range too)

To be fair, at least him winning bronze is not entirely impossible. Wouldn't be the first at all to simply have a mediocre day in a throwing event. I think McLaughlin being listed as bronze in the 400m hurdles is a lot more ridiculous, since other than injury or illness, there really is only one person in the world who can even get anywhere near her  

 

Or Nafi Thiam not being mentioned at all in the heptathlon, where she has been the overwhelming force for quite a while now. It's a super injury prone event, so of course less of a 'sure' medal than McLaughlin, but predicting the heptathlon and not having Thiam in the top-3 favourites is just laughable  

[Josh 11,647]

10 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

To be fair, at least him winning bronze is not entirely impossible. Wouldn't be the first at all to simply have a mediocre day in a throwing event. I think McLaughlin being listed as bronze in the 400m hurdles is a lot more ridiculous, since other than injury or illness, there really is only one person in the world who can even get anywhere near her  

 

Or Nafi Thiam not being mentioned at all in the heptathlon, where she has been the overwhelming force for quite a while now. It's a super injury prone event, so of course less of a 'sure' medal than McLaughlin, but predicting the heptathlon and not having Thiam in the top-3 favourites is just laughable  

I’d honestly think it’s more likely for him to foul out then win bronze. I don’t think you understand how dominant he’s been 

 

Arop’s gold in the men’s 800m is also ridiculous, because despite being the reigning World Champion, he’s only the 6th fastest this year. 

Edited July 15, 2024 by Josh

[CCB 607]

Big party for the Dutch on the first night: our girls will win the silver medal in the 4x100 freestyle relay. Canada, USA, China, France and Sweden will be nowhere!