Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[mpjmcevoy 363]

  On 7/15/2024 at 12:24 PM, Faramir said:

Analysis is clearly non-existant.

Research must be searching for WCh results and top lists/rankings and combining them together in a standing without bothering to check anything, then adding points to the French as boost for the home nation.

Expand  

I think that is PRECISELY the 'research and analysis' in this instance, as it has been before.

 

Which is all harmless and good fun...except they sell it. And that is not on. We got to look at this for free, so no harm, no foul, but earlier in the cycle they sold it - and clearly the 'changes' in their analysis over time that allowed further sales was simply updating world champs results.

[mpjmcevoy 363]

  On 7/15/2024 at 12:18 PM, hoversaBR said:

3 golds for Brazil in Gymnastics? I think Gracenote forgot about Simone Biles.

 

Only one medal in Boxing and none in Judo? It should be a historic disaster for Brazil if our two main sports together brought just 1 medal.

Expand  

Disasters happen (see GBR rowing Tokyo 2020) but the point is very much that there is no real analysis to justify the disaster prediction here, just toting up medals and then artificially boosting France, without genuinely analysing where the undoubted home bonus might actually play in this instance. Like, the 2024 worlds aquatics results are broadly meaningless - and yes, 2023 Worlds are also too long ago to be entirely reliable - guess what, this games pool will be a little less predictable than usual - there's no sign of analysis here though - even basics like comparing trials results between competitive trials

 

The idea of GBR taking six straight golds in rowing, and no minor medals at all, is risible. Not as risible in getting medals in events and with athletes not actually in the Games (mixed skeet, jess Gadirova), but still, pretty funny.

[Illya 518]

Oh, it's a joke, so cringy predictions. 

 

They literally gave medals to Zakhareiev, the skeet mixed team, who are not qualified for Paris, and silver to Lashchevska, who in their opinion can beat Simone Biles. 

 

I mean, this is hideous 

[erw 71]

Gracenote has big Error in Taekwondo too.... Korea only send 4 players, but expected to get 5 medals haha...

 

[RussB 189]

  On 7/15/2024 at 1:11 PM, erw said:

Gracenote has big Error in Taekwondo too.... Korea only send 4 players, but expected to get 5 medals haha...

 

Expand  

That's a fairly impressive conversion rate

[JoshMartini007 2,567]

  On 7/15/2024 at 12:27 PM, mpjmcevoy said:

Which is all harmless and good fun...except they sell it. And that is not on. We got to look at this for free, so no harm, no foul, but earlier in the cycle they sold it - and clearly the 'changes' in their analysis over time that allowed further sales was simply updating world champs results.

Expand  

Yeah, that's my biggest gripe with GraceNote. They are selling a product with many errors. I understand athletes can withdraw right up to the last moment, but some of these errors are medals being awarded to nations without qualification or athletes who have withdrew months ago.

 

Obviously, the lack of competition lets them get away with selling this and in the end if something doesn't come true the easy excuse is sports is too random

[erquanmen 17]

I'm very curious about how Wang Zhilin & Feng Sixuan can get medals in shooting at Paris

Sun Jiaqi & Deng Yawen are also fall down when they see both Sun Sibei & Zhou Huimin appear in stadium(Xu Shiyan:Su Xin!!!)

Edited July 15, 2024 by erquanmen

[heywoodu 15,353]

Bronze for Sydney McLaughlin in the 400m hurdles (lol) and flat, which she won't compete in 

[Faramir 376]

[JoshMartini007 2,567]

The other issue which is a lot harder to solve is that some events are more predictable than others. In reality, some events have a near-lock for gold while for others, the favourite may only have around 20% chance of actually winning gold, but in the end both nations are predicted to win 1 gold medal.

 

This sometimes balances out in the overall medal list, but you do get situations where Great Britain is predicted to win six golds in rowing just because their model states they are the favourites even if slight in some events.