Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[gucardn 64]

16 hours ago, vinipereira said:

That would be great but I think it's a bit on the optimistic side (especially Judo, Gymnastics and Boxing). I think Brazil will have a similar performance to London 2012.

 

Hey Vini,

 

Yeah, I mentioned very possible medals, but that's why I said I really believe in 05 golds and 22 in total (about 8 - 10 of these are will not confirmed, added to about three that were not expected) 

 

Your prediction of something like London is very realistic, but I confess I would be disappointed if happens (17 in total)

[Fly_like_a_don 1,091]

https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast-100-days/

 

Gracenote releases medal projection 100 days to go!

 

 

[TeamGB 174]

3 minutes ago, Fly_like_a_don said:

https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast-100-days/

 

Gracenote releases medal projection 100 days to go!

 

 

If GB win only 13 Golds I will be shocked, and honestly same with Australia, I could see them near that target in just Swimming.

 

[CCB 565]

On 4/14/2024 at 10:51 PM, Jinzha said:

With just over 100 days to go I decided to do another medal prediction, but this time on a day to day basis. 

 

Day 1 Saturday 27 July (0-1 medals)

Road cycling: Ellen van Dijk (W time trial)

 

Day 2 Sunday 28 July (0-2 medals)

Mountain bike: Puck Pieterse (W cross country)

Swimming: Arno Kamminga or Caspar Corbeau (M 100m breast)

 

Day 3 Monday 29 July (0-1 medals)

Swimming: Tes Schouten (W 100m breast)

 

Day 4 Tuesday 30 July (0-1 medals)

Judo: Joanne van Lieshout (W -63kg)

 

Day 5 Wednesday 31 July (3-5 medals)

Judo: Sanne van Dijke (W -70kg)

Rowing: M4x and W4x

Swimming: Marrit Steenbergen (W 100m free) and Caspar Corbeau (M 200m breast)

 

Day 6 Thursday 1 August (4-7 medals)

Judo: Michael Korrel (M -100kg) and Guusje Steenhuis (W -78kg)

Rowing: M2x and W4-

Sailing: Duetz/Van Aanholt (W skiff) and Van de Werken/Lambriex (M skiff)

Swimming: Tes Schouten (W 200m breast)

 

Day 7 Friday 2 August (2-5 medals)

Archery: Mixed team

BMX racing: Niek Kimmann or Laura Smulders

Judo: Marit Kamps (W +78kg)

Rowing: W2-

Sailing: Luc van Opzeeland (M IQFoil)

 

Day 8 Saturday 3 August (3-5 medals)

Athletics: Mixed 4x400m relay

Road cycling: Mathieu van der Poel (M road race)

Rowing: W1x, M1x and M8-

 

Day 9 Sunday 4 August (0-2 medals)

Equestrian: Dinja van Liere (dressage)

Road cycling: Lorena Wiebes or Demi Vollering (W road race)

 

Day 10 Monday 5 August (0-1 medals)

Athletics: Sifan Hassan (W 5000m?)

 

Day 11 Tuesday 6 August (1-2 medals)

Sailing: Marit Bouwmeester (W dinghy)

Track Cycling: M team sprint

 

Day 12 Wednesday 7 August (0-1 medals)

Sailing: Laila van der Meer / Bjarne Bouwer (mixed multihull)

 

Day 13 Thursday 8 August (2-4 medals)

Athletics: Femke Bol (W 400mH)

Hockey: Men’s team

Swimming: Sharon van Rouwendaal (W 10 km open water)

Track cycling: Hetty van der Wouw (W Keirin)

 

Day 14 Friday 9 August (2-4 medals)

Athletics: Lieke Klaver (W 400m)

Breaking: India Sardjoe (W breaking)

Hockey: Women’s team

Track Cycling: Harrie Lavreysen (M sprint)

 

Day 15 Saturday 10 August (1-3 medals)

Athletics: Women’s 4x400m relay and Abdi Nageeye (M marathon)

Water polo: Women’s team

 

Day 16 Sunday 11 August (1-2 medals)

Athletics: Sifan Hassan (W marathon??)

Track Cycling: Harrie Lavreysen (M keirin)

 

Any day (0-2 medals)

Surprise medals: preferrably Niels Laros (M 1500m) and W handball or volleyball team (what can I say, the more surprising the better)

 

Total prediction (19-47 medals)

+/- 10 golds

+/- 11 silvers

+/- 12 bronze

 

I feel like the day-by-day version made the numbers too optimistic. Some names I'm thinking more like 'one out of these 4 judoka's will probably win a medal', but it shows as a medal chances on 4 days, instead of just 1 expected medal.

Overall I'm a bit more optimistic than the 25 medals I predicted last time, I'll say 30 medals this time!

Your prediction is much more accurate than Gracenote's, who still thinks Netherlands will win a silver medal at the 4x100 freestyle in swimming  and a total of 18 golds 

[OlympicIRL 5,532]

France with 28 golds and Netherlands with 18 seems like a wild prediction  

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

 Medal Projection from Nielson Gracenote 100 days out from Paris:

 

Gold Medalists:

Betheny Shriever - BMX Racing

Joe Choong - Modern Pentathlon

Joe Clarke - Kayak X

Kimberley Woods - Kayak X

Bradley Sinden - Taekwondo -68Kg

Bryony Page - Trampoline

Oliver Townend - Eventing Individual

Women's Madison

Women's Team Pursuit

Rowing Men's Pair

Rowing Men's Four

Rowing Men's Eight

Rowing Women's Lightweight Double Sculls

 

 

Silver Medalists:

Katarina Johnson-Thompson - Heptathlon

Josh Kerr - 1500m

Keiran Reilly - BMX Freestyle

Tom Pidcock - Mountain Bike

Tom Daley/Noah Williams - Diving 10m Synchro

Jack Laugher/Anthony Harding - Diving 3m Synchro

Sky Brown - Skateboard Park

Mallory Franklin - Canoe Slalom C1

Katie Archibald - Track Cycling Omnium

Emma Finucane - Track Cycling Individual Sprint

Track Cycling - Women's Team Sprint

Track Cycling - Men's Madison

Charlote Fry - Dressage Individual

Rowing - Women's Four

Rowing - Womens Quadruple Sculls

Michael Beckett - Sailing ILCA7

Emma Wilson - Sailing - iQFOiL

John Gimson/ Anna Burnet - Sailing Nacra 17

Shooting Team Skeet

Swimming - Men's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Ben Proud - Swimming 50m Freestyle

Georgia Taylor-Brown - Triathlon

 

 

Bronze Medalists:

Jessica Gadirova - Gymnastics Floor 

Dina Asher-Smith - 200m

Matthew Hudson Smith - 400m

Keely Hodgkinson - 800m

Laura Mui - 1500m

Athletics - Women's 4x100m Relay

Athletics - Men's 4x100m Relay

Athletics - Women's 4x400m Relay

Joe Clarke - Canoe Slalom K1

Ethan Hayter - Track Cycling Omnium

Track Cycling - Men's Team Pursuit

Track Cycling - Men's Team Sprint

Andrea Spendolini Sirieix - Diving 10m Platform

Andrea Spendolini Sirieix/Lois Toulson - Diving 10m Synchro

Equestrian Team Dressage

Equestrian Team Eventing

Laura Collett - Equestrian Eventing Individual

Charley Hull - Golf

Chelsie Giles - Judo -52Kg

Lucy Renshall - Judo -63Kg

Vita Heathcote/Chris Grube - Sailing 470

Eleanor Aldridge - Sailing Formula Kite

Freya Colbert - Swimming 400m Individual Medley

Jade Jones - Taekwondo -57Kg

Rebecca McGowan - Taekwondo +67Kg

Caden Cunningham - Taekwondo +80Kg

Alex Yee - Triathlon

Beth Potter - Triathlon

Triathlon Mixed Team Relay

Emily Campbell - Weightlifting +81Kg

 

The fact that they are still projecting Gadirova as an individual medalist on floor when she is still in post injury rehab kind of calls into question either their methodology, or their attention to detail when analysing the output of their methodology.  

[Benolympique 2,398]

8 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

 Medal Projection from Nielson Gracenote 100 days out from Paris:

 

Gold Medalists:

Betheny Shriever - BMX Racing

Joe Choong - Modern Pentathlon

Joe Clarke - Kayak X

Kimberley Woods - Kayak X

Bradley Sinden - Taekwondo -68Kg

Bryony Page - Trampoline

Oliver Townend - Eventing Individual

Women's Madison

Women's Team Pursuit

Rowing Men's Pair

Rowing Men's Four

Rowing Men's Eight

Rowing Women's Lightweight Double Sculls

 

 

Silver Medalists:

Katarina Johnson-Thompson - Heptathlon

Josh Kerr - 1500m

Keiran Reilly - BMX Freestyle

Tom Pidcock - Mountain Bike

Tom Daley/Noah Williams - Diving 10m Synchro

Jack Laugher/Anthony Harding - Diving 3m Synchro

Sky Brown - Skateboard Park

Mallory Franklin - Canoe Slalom C1

Katie Archibald - Track Cycling Omnium

Emma Finucane - Track Cycling Individual Sprint

Track Cycling - Women's Team Sprint

Track Cycling - Men's Madison

Charlote Fry - Dressage Individual

Rowing - Women's Four

Rowing - Womens Quadruple Sculls

Michael Beckett - Sailing ILCA7

Emma Wilson - Sailing - iQFOiL

John Gimson/ Anna Burnet - Sailing Nacra 17

Shooting Team Skeet

Swimming - Men's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Ben Proud - Swimming 50m Freestyle

Georgia Taylor-Brown - Triathlon

 

 

Bronze Medalists:

Jessica Gadirova - Gymnastics Floor 

Dina Asher-Smith - 200m

Matthew Hudson Smith - 400m

Keely Hodgkinson - 800m

Laura Mui - 1500m

Athletics - Women's 4x100m Relay

Athletics - Men's 4x100m Relay

Athletics - Women's 4x400m Relay

Joe Clarke - Canoe Slalom K1

Ethan Hayter - Track Cycling Omnium

Track Cycling - Men's Team Pursuit

Track Cycling - Men's Team Sprint

Andrea Spendolini Sirieix - Diving 10m Platform

Andrea Spendolini Sirieix/Lois Toulson - Diving 10m Synchro

Equestrian Team Dressage

Equestrian Team Eventing

Laura Collett - Equestrian Eventing Individual

Charley Hull - Golf

Chelsie Giles - Judo -52Kg

Lucy Renshall - Judo -63Kg

Vita Heathcote/Chris Grube - Sailing 470

Eleanor Aldridge - Sailing Formula Kite

Freya Colbert - Swimming 400m Individual Medley

Jade Jones - Taekwondo -57Kg

Rebecca McGowan - Taekwondo +67Kg

Caden Cunningham - Taekwondo +80Kg

Alex Yee - Triathlon

Beth Potter - Triathlon

Triathlon Mixed Team Relay

Emily Campbell - Weightlifting +81Kg

 

The fact that they are still projecting Gadirova as an individual medalist on floor when she is still in post injury rehab kind of calls into question either their methodology, or their attention to detail when analysing the output of their methodology.  

do you have details of ?

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

 Medal Projection from Gracenote Nielson 100 days out from Paris

 

 

Gold Medalists:

Logan Martin - BMX Freestyle

Jessica Fox - Canoe Slalom C1

Jessica Fox - Canoe Slalom K1

Grace Brown - Road Racing Individual Time Trial

Matthew Wearn - Sailing ILCA 7

Kaylee McKeown - Swimming 100m Backstroke

Kaylee McKeown - Swimming 200m Backstroke

Swimming - Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay

Swimming - Women's 4x100m Medley Relay

Swimming - Women's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Ariarne Titmus - Swimming 400m Freestyle

Cameron McEvoy - Swimming 50m Freestyle

 

 

Silver Medalists:

Nicola Olyslagers - High Jump

Kelsey-Lee Barber - Javelin

Nina Kennedy - Pole Vault

Saya Sakakibara - BMX Racing

Jessica Fox - Canoe Slalom Kayak X

Matthew Richardson - Track Cycling Individual Sprint

Track Cycling Men's Team Sprint

Anabelle Smith/Maddison Keeney - Diving 3m Synchro

Rowing Women's 8

Rowing Men's 4

Rowing Women's Pair

women's Rugby Sevens

Kyle Chalmers - Swimming 100m Freestyle

Mollie O'Callaghan - Swimming 100m Freestyle

Zac Stubblety-Cook - Swimming 200m Breaststroke

Ariarne Titmus - Swimming 200m Freestyle

Swimming - Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay

Tennis Men's Doubles

Tennis Mixed Doubles

 

 

Bronze Medalists:

Matthew Denny - Discus

Eleanor Patterson - High Jump

Women's 3x3 Basketball

Matthew Richardson - Track Cycling Keirin

Track Cycling - Women's Madison

Jean van der Westhuyzen/Tom Green - Canoe Sprint K2 500m

Cassiel Rousseau - Diving 10m Platform

Maddison Keeney - Diving 3m Springboard

Women's Field Hockey

Rowing - Men's Eight

Tara Rigney - Rowing Single Sculls

Kieran Woolley - Skateboarding Park

Chloe Covell - Skaetboarding Street

Mollie O'Callaghan - Swimming 200m Freestyle

Swimming - Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay

Elijah Winnington - Swimming 400m Freestyle

Emma McKeon - Swimming 50m Freestyle

Tennis Women's Doubles 

Edited April 17 by Rafa Maciel

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

 Medal Projection 100 days out from Paris:

 

Gold Medalists:

Lisa Carrington - Canoe Sprint K1 500m

Ellesse Andrews - Track Cycling Keirin

Men's Rugby Sevens

Women's Rugby Sevens

 

 

Silver Medalists:

Canoe Sprint - Women's K4 500m 

Emma Twigg - Rowing Single Sculls

Erika Fairweather - Swimming 400m Freestyle

Lewis Clareburt - Swimming 400m Individual Medley

 

 

Bronze Medalists:

Tom Walsh - Shot Put

Track Cycling Women's Team Pursuit

Dylan Schmidt - Trampoline

 

[Fly_like_a_don 1,091]

Is there any extended tally present covering all nations and their medal breakup.