How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (Final Version)

[Dragon 1,898]

 40-50 medals, 12-16 gold

 

Long way down on Rio but not as much as some people have feared

[Oldira 88]

  On 7/7/2021 at 5:52 AM, orangeman said:

For Canada, I think 24 total with 4-5 golds would be expected.  

 

This is probably the most unpredictable Olympics since WWII, even at the Games there could be an outbreak which sidelines half the athletes competing.  

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Hasnt happenned at any of the qualifier events or track meetings on any grand scale.

[intoronto 5,886]

  On 7/7/2021 at 5:52 AM, orangeman said:

For Canada, I think 24 total with 4-5 golds would be expected.  

 

This is probably the most unpredictable Olympics since WWII, even at the Games there could be an outbreak which sidelines half the athletes competing.  

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Something like this. 20-24 range seems possible. Ideally over 22 

[Dragon 1,898]

  On 7/7/2021 at 11:15 AM, Oldira said:

Hasnt happenned at any of the qualifier events or track meetings on any grand scale.

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Yes - I'd be surprised if it happened on a big scale but shocked too if not one medal contender had to pull out in Tokyo

[Gianlu33 4,743]

Something around 33-36 medals

[pdr4332 218]

  On 7/7/2021 at 9:55 AM, MagyarBabu said:

I tried to calculate a sort of probability of GOLDs like one of the most vulgar bookmakers. I rated the events with the possibility of GOLD medal with a number from 0.5 to 5.5, which represent a percentage,  and I considered a base of 6 points as an absolute certainly (100%):
 

5 points: (>80%)

4 points: (near 66%)

3 points: (50%)

2 points: (near 33%)

1 points: (<17%)

 

Swimming:

 

Men's 200 Butterfly - 5.5
Women's 400 I.M. - 3

Women's 200 Butterfly - 1
Men's 100 Butterfly - 1
Men's 10Km -  1

 

Canoeing:
 

Women's K4 500m - 5

Women's K2 500m - 4
Men's K1 1000m - 3

Men's K1 200m - 3

Women's K1 500m - 1.5

Women's C2 500m - 1

 

Fencing

 

Men's Team Sabre - 2.5

Men's Épée Ind. - 2

Men's Sabre Ind. - 2

Women's Sabre Team - 1

Women's Sabre Ind. - 1

 

Wrestling

 

Greco-Roman 77kg - 4

Greco-Roman 87kg - 1.5

 

Modern Pentathlon:

 

Men's - 1

Women's - 1

 

Water Polo:

Men's - 1.5

Women's - 0.5

 

Judo:

 

Men's 90 kg - 1

 

Athletics

 

Heptathlon - 1

 

Shooting

 

Men's 10m Air Rifle - 0.5

Men's 50m 3 Rifle three positions - 0.5

Mixed 10m Air Rifle Team - 1

 

GRAND TOTAL: 51

51/6(100%) = 8.5 GOLD MEDALS

For approximation down and considering the margin of error due to extreme poverty of accuracy of such type of calculation, to date I would predict the usual 8 GOLD medals, even 7 if we consider the fact that these calculation are perhaps "biased evaluation" made by a supporter not an expert and impartial statistician.

 

I know this is crazy but the countdown is now to -16. Understand me a little, at least... 

 

 

 

 

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If you have time, can you do this also for overall medal chances (not only gold) for in these events?

[orangeman 2,025]

  On 7/7/2021 at 11:22 AM, intoronto said:

Something like this. 20-24 range seems possible. Ideally over 22 

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Re-reading my first post, I should have said "possible" instead of "expected".  My prediction is probably the upper limit for total and golds.  

[rybak 3,239]

 between 10-12, as always.

[Adriano 594]

For Poland ?? I think 6-7 medals. (one rowing, 2 athetics (men's hammer and women's hammer), one cayak (Walczykiewicz), one team sport (3x3 basketball/volleyball),  2 from other sport (for example shooting - Bernal) 

[chinmoy 3]

INDIA:

 

80% medal chances :

Weightlifting 1 (49kg women)

Boxing 1 (men fly weight)

Wrestling 2 ( men 65kg , women 53 kg)

Shooting 1 ( mixed team pistol)

 

Total= 5

 

 

 

50% medal chances

Archery 1 ( mixed team / men team)

Badminton 1 ( women singles)

Boxing 2 ( men welter weight / women fly weight / light weight )

Hockey 1 ( men )

Wrestling 1 ( men 57kg / men 86 kg )

Shooting 2 ( mixed rifle / men 10m piston / women 10m pistol / women 50m pistol / men 10m rifle / women 10m rifle )

Atheletics 1 ( men jevlin)

 

Total = 9 

 

 

So combining both i think INDIA should win 5-7 medals