How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (Final Version)

[Dragon 2,026]

 40-50 medals, 12-16 gold

 

Long way down on Rio but not as much as some people have feared

[Oldira 88]

5 hours ago, orangeman said:

For Canada, I think 24 total with 4-5 golds would be expected.  

 

This is probably the most unpredictable Olympics since WWII, even at the Games there could be an outbreak which sidelines half the athletes competing.  

Hasnt happenned at any of the qualifier events or track meetings on any grand scale.

[intoronto 6,406]

5 hours ago, orangeman said:

For Canada, I think 24 total with 4-5 golds would be expected.  

 

This is probably the most unpredictable Olympics since WWII, even at the Games there could be an outbreak which sidelines half the athletes competing.  

Something like this. 20-24 range seems possible. Ideally over 22 

[Dragon 2,026]

26 minutes ago, Oldira said:

Hasnt happenned at any of the qualifier events or track meetings on any grand scale.

Yes - I'd be surprised if it happened on a big scale but shocked too if not one medal contender had to pull out in Tokyo

[Gianlu33 5,276]

Something around 33-36 medals

[pdr4332 218]

2 hours ago, MagyarBabu said:

I tried to calculate a sort of probability of GOLDs like one of the most vulgar bookmakers. I rated the events with the possibility of GOLD medal with a number from 0.5 to 5.5, which represent a percentage,  and I considered a base of 6 points as an absolute certainly (100%):
 

5 points: (>80%)

4 points: (near 66%)

3 points: (50%)

2 points: (near 33%)

1 points: (<17%)

 

Swimming:

 

Men's 200 Butterfly - 5.5
Women's 400 I.M. - 3

Women's 200 Butterfly - 1
Men's 100 Butterfly - 1
Men's 10Km -  1

 

Canoeing:
 

Women's K4 500m - 5

Women's K2 500m - 4
Men's K1 1000m - 3

Men's K1 200m - 3

Women's K1 500m - 1.5

Women's C2 500m - 1

 

Fencing

 

Men's Team Sabre - 2.5

Men's Épée Ind. - 2

Men's Sabre Ind. - 2

Women's Sabre Team - 1

Women's Sabre Ind. - 1

 

Wrestling

 

Greco-Roman 77kg - 4

Greco-Roman 87kg - 1.5

 

Modern Pentathlon:

 

Men's - 1

Women's - 1

 

Water Polo:

Men's - 1.5

Women's - 0.5

 

Judo:

 

Men's 90 kg - 1

 

Athletics

 

Heptathlon - 1

 

Shooting

 

Men's 10m Air Rifle - 0.5

Men's 50m 3 Rifle three positions - 0.5

Mixed 10m Air Rifle Team - 1

 

GRAND TOTAL: 51

51/6(100%) = 8.5 GOLD MEDALS

For approximation down and considering the margin of error due to extreme poverty of accuracy of such type of calculation, to date I would predict the usual 8 GOLD medals, even 7 if we consider the fact that these calculation are perhaps "biased evaluation" made by a supporter not an expert and impartial statistician.

 

I know this is crazy but the countdown is now to -16. Understand me a little, at least... 

 

 

 

 

If you have time, can you do this also for overall medal chances (not only gold) for in these events?

[orangeman 2,284]

18 hours ago, intoronto said:

Something like this. 20-24 range seems possible. Ideally over 22 

Re-reading my first post, I should have said "possible" instead of "expected".  My prediction is probably the upper limit for total and golds.  

[rybak 3,302]

 between 10-12, as always.

[Adriano 625]

For Poland ?? I think 6-7 medals. (one rowing, 2 athetics (men's hammer and women's hammer), one cayak (Walczykiewicz), one team sport (3x3 basketball/volleyball),  2 from other sport (for example shooting - Bernal) 

[chinmoy 3]

INDIA:

 

80% medal chances :

Weightlifting 1 (49kg women)

Boxing 1 (men fly weight)

Wrestling 2 ( men 65kg , women 53 kg)

Shooting 1 ( mixed team pistol)

 

Total= 5

 

 

 

50% medal chances

Archery 1 ( mixed team / men team)

Badminton 1 ( women singles)

Boxing 2 ( men welter weight / women fly weight / light weight )

Hockey 1 ( men )

Wrestling 1 ( men 57kg / men 86 kg )

Shooting 2 ( mixed rifle / men 10m piston / women 10m pistol / women 50m pistol / men 10m rifle / women 10m rifle )

Atheletics 1 ( men jevlin)

 

Total = 9 

 

 

So combining both i think INDIA should win 5-7 medals