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So knowing a good amount of the proposals and the proposed quota cuts, is there any sports/events y’all would add? Would you change the amount of quotas? 

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46 minutes ago, NearPup said:

That's basically what a relay is, just in a more TV friendly version :P

It’s a lot more than that in Athletics, but okay.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, intoronto said:

I meant adding the results of the top 3 athletes per country after the rounds are done and then give them a medal. Basically new event with no new rounds lol. 

 

 

I actually found the DNA event at the Euro Games fun to watch. I didn’t think I’d ever be down for a team event at the Olympics, but think it could be fun. I don’t want team events per distance though. I would definitely hate that.

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1 minute ago, dcro said:

They want 7 (!) events in table tennis??

 

Team events need to go. Replace them with M/W doubles if you will. Team events made some sense back when there was a round robin format in 2008, but since 2012 they have basically been ridiculous. As much as 16 players go to the Olympics to lose one doubles bout within the Round of 16 team match. Those representing Australia and the US have zero hope of anything more. Total waste of quotas.

Adding doubles would give those players a purpose would it not?

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2 hours ago, NearPup said:

...I actually do prefer watching the team archery event to the individual archery event xD

I do as well. Archery is the perfect sport to chill out and have a drink to 

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@intoronto I would guess ISSF is asking for Mixed Team Skeet, which would probably just be rubber-stamped by the IOC.  
 

@Griff88 Seems as if you’ve underestimated the BWF here. 
 

I think Basketball could just simply be asking for an increase in teams in the 3x3 tournament. However, @intoronto could be right about the dunk contest/shoot-out.

 

All-in-all, our guesses from the last few pages seem pretty much spot-on at moment. Only thing that surprised me was the ICF asking for extreme canoe slalom, but I really should have seen that coming in retrospect.

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46 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Here are my predictions. If I remember correctly they said an event by event review will be underway. I suspect the sports without gender equality will be the hardest hit.

 

I suspect of Aquatics: We will lose Artistic swimming. 24 (teams are now 12) of those quotas will be transferred to water polo to get gender equality. That leaves us with a net total of -80 quotas. If that is the route they are going, swimming will not be touched in terms of quotas. Artistic swimming is arguably the only sport where the medalists can be predicted with 100% confidence. It deserves to go.

 

Athletics: We will likely see an additional women's race walk event, which will get us full parity in terms of events. I think the street events have way too much quotas among them. If we subtract 20 from each and give the new women's event 60, we are left a net reduction of -40. I think an overall reduction of 128 spots is reasonable across the board, in exchange for the extra women's event.

 

Boxing: I suspect a men's event will be dropped, and two women's added. 18 per category on avg per event = 252 quotas, a net reduction of 34.

Cycling: Transfer of 9 quotas from road to track to get full gender equality. I would imagine the UCI would be asked to introduce 3 person sprint teams like the men, but if not ready for 2024, they can use the 9 spots elsewhere. That leaves 188 spots for road cycling. I do think the IOC will force the road cycling fields to be equal at 94 each. Which is crazy, I'd suspect the UCI will need to reduce the max per NOC

 

Football: I think the men's tournament should be 12 teams (after all its not a full strength tournament) and match all other team sports on the program. = Net reduction of 72

Golf: This is not the top competition in the sport. Reduction of 54 to each field. Net reduction of 12

 

Gymnastics:I don't think anything will happen here. Rhythmic gets the women to equal amount of events as the men, and I don't think you can introduce new apparatus for women in artistic. Unlike Artistic swimming, the field is much more competitive. 

Sailing: The total quota of 350 seems bloated to me. Reduction of 2 boats per event  on avg =30 quotas. 

Tennis: Same story as golf. 82 per gender (basically removing 4 per singles) would do the trick. Net reduction of 8.

 

Wrestling: I really don't know what will happen here. TBH I don't think anything will happen. The IOC has stated they will aim for gender equality where possible. Its just not possible to add women's greco-roman to a games 4 years away.The sport got a quota cut in 2020 and highly doubt it will happen for 2024 too. Coincidentally, the extra 96 spots women get would be offset here by the 96 extra spots the men get in greco-roman wrestling. 

 

So by my calculations that would equal a full gender equal games.

 

We need 364 quotas removed among the core sports (and not a lot of IF's getting affected):

 

Aquatics -80

Athletics -128

Boxing -34

Golf -12

Football -72

Sailing -30

Tennis -8

 

=364

 

That still leaves 300 short according to @call me matt account, who did the math on all the current quotas for Tokyo 2020.

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6 minutes ago, Vojthas said:

The fact there will be no baseball/softball in Paris gives us quite a reduction of quota then.

Plus, the 4 sports being added don’t require an insane amount of quotas. Skateboard (96), Sport Climbing (72), Surfing (40), and Breaking (32)

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5 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Have heard through the grapevine triple jump may be on the chopping block

Yep, it’s out of the Diamond League. It wasn’t in the DNA event in Minsk that Lord Coe loved to hype up. It doesn’t get a lot of focus on WA broadcasts. There’s definitely evidence there.

 

Of course, as someone who basically specialized as a triple jumper in high school, this makes me incredibly sad. 
 

I had heard the 200m might be in danger as well. Personally, I’d prefer to get rid of the 200m since it’s literally the most pointless and least unique event on the program, but field events are second class citizens.

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11 minutes ago, Agger said:

You have some sources? I've seen a bit about the manufactoring, but nothing sounding that bad.

I did some more reading this morning. It seems World Sailiing did announce late last year that they plan to keep Laser as an Olympic class in 2024, but there still seems to be a lot of question marks surrounding manufacturing and naming disputes.

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6 hours ago, Agger said:

 

The wishes from WSF has been known for more than a year. Why should they suddenly take Laser out (they've signed a contract for 2024, by the way making it even less likely). That would mean cutting the most universal class. That would also mean breaking their own regulations, I believe.

In athletics, I would see discus as one of the most likely cuts as well if that's where it ends up.

They’ve had some large dispute with the Laser manufacturer. Last I checked, both sides were basically still slinging threats at each other.

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21 minutes ago, call me matt said:

I don't think the IOC is just going to drop any sport, in my opinion they will, for starters, reduce the number of team members in all team sports, a lot can be done by limiting athletics and swimming quotas, and there are also disciplines where small reductions can be done (like equestrian where teams had 4 members in Rio, but will have only 3 in Tokyo). And when we count all these small reductions the numbers could add up

Well, they are obligated to drop one, and then hold an election for that spot as a core sport.

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41 minutes ago, call me matt said:

No need to do that, I already added all the numbers up (this means I opened each individual official qualification process document available and summed all the ˝total athletes quotas available˝).

 

The number of quotas available for Tokyo 2020 through all sports is 11.136, out of which 6.886 has already been distributed, according to my counts. 

So we’re losing 636 quotas then @intoronto. I have no clue where they’re going to cut those quotas. Boxing and Weightlifting would be easy drops, but you’re still adding 4 more sports, which basically undoes all of that. 

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22 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

 

I just don't see Beach Wrestling as Olympic sport. Russia and Middle East countries have enough money to influence IOC's decision Asia is a desired market for anyone so any Asian-strong sports like badminton are here to stay as well.

Believe me, I don’t either. However these fools put Surfing in Tahiti, added Mixed Team Aerials to the Winter Olympics, and went against the majority opinion of Olympic fans and added breaking to 2024. These are just the kind of people that would add Beach Wrestling.

 

@MHSN Please tell me the UWW wouldn’t try to add a Mixed Team event?

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34 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Tokyo 2021 has 10,616 quotas among the core sports +248 for the new sports. So among the core spots we are looking at 363 cuts to quotas. Amazing. I would say drop Artistic swimming (-104) an rhythmic gymnastics (96). That still leave 163 spots to cut. THIS IS INSANE. What difference does an extra 200-300 quotas make to a multi billion dollar budget? The pure stupidity of the IOC is just beyond me now. 

I swear, if we cut 300, or 500, or 1,000, or whatever amount of quotas, and 4 men’s football team are not among those cut; I’m done with the IOC.

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4 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

ITG reported thay the final quota tally for Tokyo was 11,750. Has something changed, or did I get my numbers confused?

Wikipedia has the total at 11,091. It seems no one is really sure on the numbers. I guess I could go through and add up all the quotas, but that’s a lot of work I don’t want to do.

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12 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Tokyo 2021 has 10,616 quotas among the core sports +248 for the new sports. So among the core spots we are looking at 363 cuts to quotas. Amazing. I would say drop Artistic swimming (-104) an rhythmic gymnastics (96). That still leave 163 spots to cut. THIS IS INSANE. What difference does an extra 200-300 quotas make to a multi billion dollar budget? The pure stupidity of the IOC is just beyond me now. 

ITG reported thay the final quota tally for Tokyo was 11,750. Has something changed, or did I get my numbers confused?

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51 minutes ago, MHSN said:

can't IOC stop adding nonsense events like 3x3 basketball or BMX freestyle instead of dropping something else ? I wonder how many other smart idea Bach has.

And remember, we’re cutting 1,000 quotas (more than actually) along the way...

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1 hour ago, Monzanator said:

Wrestling has a long history in Eastern Europe, ex-USSR and Middle East. It's gonna be extremely tough to remove it from the Olympics as it's also one of the ancient classics. There was an uproar when they tried to get rid of it already so I just don't see that happening. Thankfully wrestling is big in US high-schools and college so I don't suppose USA will push to get rid of that too much.

 

Golf & tennis are two sports where Olympic gold medal is worth less than a win in Major. These two sports could be easily removed and I wouldn't lose sleep over it. Women's golf being dominated by the South Koreans is another reason USA might wanna look pass it after a while. Then again, golf only got back in 2016 so I suppose it will have to stay for a while yet - unless more big names will openly ignore it like they did in Rio (zika virus was an obvious BS excuse).

I was just saying that UWW (while being heavily “persuaded” by the IOC) might be inclined to remove Greco-Roman, for the more “youth” Beach Wrestling. Personally, I think Wrestling is safe like you said.

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15 minutes ago, Vojthas said:

I can bet (though it's guess only) that UIPM tries once more with the mixed relay.

 

On the other hand - I guess fencing, tennis and badminton have no more events to be included. Adding to that all the team sports - basketball, football, volleyball, field hockey, handball, rugby - we've got eight. I don't count waterpolo as being under FINA it might mean changes in swimming and/or artistic swimming programme. Still, this means at least one of the team sports proposing changes. Beach handball, futsal or beach soccer and deleting basket 5x5 are all my first thought, hockey5s and rugby union rather not.

 

OK, let's see the possibilities one by one:

1. Aquatics - swimming and/or artistic swimming My guess: Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay, Mixed Pair, M/W 1m Springboard
2. Athletics - it can be anything, I'm afraid If cuts have to be made, I don’t like how the 200m and Triple Jump look at the moment. 
3. Archery - compound (?) It’s the only thing I can think of...
4. Badminton - nothing, I think Mixed Team Event
5. Basketball - deleting 5x5 If cuts have to be made...Maybe cut 5x5, ask for 16 teams in M/W 3x3. I just don’t see 5x5 being cut honestly.
6. Boxing - weight changes again (#genderequality) Yep. More likely this sport will be cut entirely.
7. Canoeing - any distance/boat size change Sprint: Mixed K-2 500m, Mixed K-4 500m, Mixed C-2 500m Slalom: Mixed C-2
8. Cycling - changes in track programme according to the new format, maybe some team road races Mixed Team Time Trial, M/W MTB Downhill. Honestly, I could some crazy stuff like relays in MTB and BMX being proposed. Quotas will be cut for 2024 for sure.
9. Equestrian - hopefully driving, not unmeasurable vaulting and reigning or horse-harming endurance. I think no change here. I would love driving though. This might be a sport that loses some quotas for 2024 as well.
10. Fencing - nothing more to be added, I think (although the team event known from YOG...) Yep, definitely proposed the Mixed Team Event.
11. Field hockey - Hockey 5s possible, but not likely This is another one that didn’t propose a change I think.
12. Football - beach soccer or futsal instead of U23 I actually feel like FIFA didn’t propose anything. Unless, they are proposing to remove Football and replace it with either Beach Soccer or Futsal.
13. Golf - mixed relay? haha, just kidding (I hope) Men’s Team, Women’s Team, Mixed Team Event (either based on stokes, or in a match play format).
14. Gymnastics - team trampoline, men's rhytmic (#genderequality) Parkour, obviously. I have no clue how they’ll solve the gender disparity here.
15. Handball - beach handball Yep.
16. Judo - weight changes Interesting, that’s the only thing that makes sense besides Men’s Team and Women’s Team. They might try to rework the Mixed Team Event as well.
17. Modern pentathlon - mixed relay - this time #yesplease Yep. Mixed Team should get in honestly.
18. Rowing - so many events to be in or out, including deleting of lightweight Yep, if I had to guess, the reduction in quotas will be the end of lightweight events. I actually know what WR proposed though since they announced it. They are looking to add Beach Rowing based in Tahiti with Surfing.
19. Rugby - union instead of sevens not likely due to reducing number of athletes Yeah, no change.
20. Sailing - have there ever been two consecutive Olympics with the same classes? Yeah, they’ll boats as well. We know they are proposing a Mixed Off Shore event. I believe they are proposing a Mixed Team event of some sort as well. Formula Kite is probably on that list too. Finn is gone, and Laser is gone (WSF and Laser have had a big dispute lately).
21. Shooting - team events, more mixed events... Gene Simmons from KISS, Alice Cooper's scenic shows and music video to Michael Jackson's "Thriller"  were alltogether less scary than what can be done here Lol, Mixed 50m Rifle 3 Positions, Mixed Skeet
22. Table tennis - men's and women's doubles I don’t know. I’m sure they proposed something, but I actually have no clue. Maybe Mixed Team? 
23. Taekwondo - weight changes Rumor has it they want to do classes by height, instead of weight. They also obviously asked for the inclusion of M/W Poomsae, and Mixed Team Poomsae.
24. Tennis - nothing, hopefully (separate tournament on clay and grass?) Mixed Team Event
25. Triathlon - sprint distance as a second individual event - I'm in as there may be that "more events with the same athletes and infrastructure" M/W Ironman distance. This has been rumored since Rio 2016. Sprint Distance, Aquathlon, and Duathlon are also fair bets. 
26. Volleyball - nothing, I think I agree.
27. Weightlifting - weight changes (again!) or... separate event for those who do not dope (only one as I think there's very few of them) Lol, Yeah, different weight classses. This sport may also be dropped entirely to reach 10,500.
28. Wrestling - beach wrestling, grappling, pankration... or simply deleting Greco-Roman (#genderequality) I’m sure it’s the addition of Beach Wrestling or a Mixed Team Event, and with the possibility of removing Greco-Roman to make it happen.

Here’s my thoughts based on @Vojthas analysis.

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@Vojthas If I was betting man (and I am not, but if I were), I’d be putting some good money on the BWF trying to push the Mixed Team event into the Olympics.

 

Maybe @Griff88 has some insight/opinion here?

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34 minutes ago, intoronto said:

I bet half of those are to add "mixed events" What a joke this is. At this rate there won't be any universality spots lol

I don’t mind the Mixed Events so long as they A) don’t require extra quotas B) Don’t have a completely comical that makes a joke out of the sport.

 

That is exactly how I read the statements “The IOC would wants to add events that make use athletes who have already obtained a quota, and that make use of existing infrastructure.”

 

I am worried about the universality of the Olympics. I mean 10,500 is just too little honestly. It’s like @Federer91 we’re going lose some more events, and we’re going to have events with 12-16 entries at best. The IOC seems convinced it’s the amount of athletes that have caused cities to lose interest, and not the rampant corruption, insane demands, or rapid changes. 

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22 minutes ago, Gianlu33 said:

Do you have more info?

I can look. Some federations make their intentions public, while others wait for the suspense of the announcement.

 

I don’t know why the IOC doesn’t make it public knowledge what events federations are asking them to include. I feel like it would help gage interest.

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14 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

 

By a 1000 damn. Kicking out weightlifting, boxing and wrestling won't be enough now. They've overthought their numbers and will have to take back from others in this case. 

And they want to add more sports! 
 

Plus, they want to add events that won’t require additional quotas, and that will only use existing infrastructure. This is something I support 100%, as long as we don’t go crazy with some truly outlandish relays or something. 
 

Apparently, 20 of the 27 IFs of Olympics sport have requested changes to their event program of events. A decision on all those proposed changes, and on the inclusion of the 4 Paris 2024 approved sports will be made in December.

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The IOC wants to reduce athlete quotas by 1,000 (11,500 to 10,500) for Paris! This includes the additional sports they’re adding. This is getting ridiculous. They are going the wrong direction here.