This whole thing is just breaking my brains
I have made a list of all IBU Qualifying Points (of the now finished season) for all female athletes from countries that were not in the World Cup Nations Cup top-20. Nations 21 and 22 (Japan and Lithuania) will also get tickets, but the top-20 seems to be pretty stable and the 21st and 22nd countries might easily change next season, which is why I did it like that.
The results, taking in account the average of the best 3 results of every athlete (or the proper adjustments in the case of only 1 or 2 results in the entire season):
Green = Athletes from Japan or Lithuania, who would in the last season have qualified through the Nations Cup and therefore wouldn't matter in this list.
Red = Athletes who already have at least 2 athletes of the same country above them - countries can only qualify 2 quota places through the IBU Qualifying Points List
Therefore, in the system where there is absolutely 0 reallocation, LAT and KOR would receive 1 quota, EST and CHN would each receive 2 and that's it, meaning the line is at 91,60 points (World Cup-level).
However, in a system where there is reallocation and for example the next three countries in the Nations Cup would also get 1 or 2 tickets (EST, CHN and KOR), suddenly the quota places in this list would be won by Bendika, Lightfoot, Szöcs, Karisik, Padial and....Muizniece, who has only 191 points...a HUGE difference!
This is why the Brazilian federation will try to find out as soon as possible whether or not there will be reallocation in the case of unused quotas, because it would be pretty weird in my opinion to not reallocate unused quotas.