This could very likely come down to Golf and Breaking
Like you said, China has 6 favorites to go to 39 - 2x weightlifting, diving, table tennis, synchro swimming and boxing. ( though with boxing and weightlifting you never know).
US has the 6 in only 2x basketball, canoeing, 2x athletics and 1 wrestling I'd give them for now. And they still have a few more, where it's possible, so they need to severely underperform to not finish first.
Realistically for China to have a chance, without the unknown events like golf and breaking, the US need to lose 3/4 team finals and get 1 gold in athletics, or 2/2 and nothing in athletics. Or they don't win anything in wrestling, but all of that seems highly unlikely.