Well, media here is really bad in being realistic about sport. All that "we are punching above our weight" attitude is completely wrong. What about Ireland, Denmark? Slovenia? Lithuania, Estonia? Hungary? They all have much more structured team than us (ESPECIALLY in individuals sports) and very similar resources...
Apart from judo and tennis, we will also have pretty much the worst case in table tennis and rowing (and swimming). We might actually have a chance to get another quota in judo thanks to reallocation. One Oceanian quota will be unused, and probably not all 20 tripartite quotas will be used (in 2012 17/20 tripartites were used). But on the other hand, luck also hasn't been at our side during this qualifications.