Orangehair43

London and plenty of other places feel too wet for outdoor swimming especially as outdoor training pools don't exist in many countries so many swimmers won't get the practise of adapting to competing in the rain.

All true but countries are becoming stricter with borders - Israel has banned all flights for at least a week with as far as I can tell no exceptions for sportspeople travelling abroad to compete. The UK is bringing in hotel quarantine and while team sports flying on private jets to competitors in a bubble might manage to get an exemption i'm not sure individuals or small entourages flying commercial will. When you have the risk of the vaccine failing due to varients sport will be far down the list.

The new variants mean 2021 sporting calender might be just as disrupted as 2020 as more and more athletes cant leave or enter their own countries.

A lot of countries have the facilities without the capacity issues.

Maybe but prep will be cheaper for 2032 bar the village problem.

The IOC will pull the plug before Japan.

At this rate Bejing and even Paris 2024 might be affected if international quarantines last into 2022 and 2023.

I think most athletes mentally have been sort of privately preparing.

Maybe hotel Quarantines. Or even postponement till October or 2022 through it's unlikely Japan would agree.

That is very unlikely - That would destroy the reputation of the IOC everywhere else.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/55762303 Lord Coe thinks it might be behind closed doors.

Even if it goes ahead no certainty every country will appear - some might not get government permission to travel and then quarantine on return. A few smaller countries doing this might not kill the games but obviously big ones very likely would.

As the Times said the IOC are waiting for the likes of the USA to pull out before pulling the plug.

And quarantine would be more manageable as for a smallish sport you would only need 200-500 entering Japan could keep Karate and Softball and maybe even Athletics.

Suspect most if not all would be the same especially with the vaccine busting mutant.

They can be the same year again like before the move to 1994.

In the article the source says they want President Biden to say Team USA should not go so then they can officially cancel it.

Every country would have the same issue.

The key thing will be how Japan reports it in the coming days- do they announce it or deny it or ignore the reports. Should have postponed to 2022 and then tried to get 2024 to move to 2026 and 2028 to 2030.

I can see all other bids opting not to even bother.

Maybe they will add them into 2024 as a conciliation prize. Unlikely - most people will accept it.

Problem is athletes are young so in most countries people in their age group won't be done by August - some places (China for example) might allow jumping the queue but most won't. Japan would have to provide the vaccine itself to the athletes and officials to not make it a nationality lottery.

Michael Phelps say he thinks the Games should be cancelled.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/55722310