Ogreman

So I seem to be in a very different place and a lot higher on our medal hopes than the rest of you so let’s go through our medal chances and see where we disagree. Now first of all I agree that qualification over the last couple of months has not gone well. My rudimentary projections had gone as high as 139 but are now back down to 133 (In predictions thread). The race walk mixed relay and all of our male marathon runners failing to qualify/ (probably) only getting one diver and Rachael Darragh inexplicably falling out of a rankings spot (although she is first up for a (likely?) reallocation) have hurt our numbers plus Gymnasts not named Rhys, Thammy Nguyen and the men’s double in badminton while none of which were likely qualifiers they were chances that are now gone. Plus we are behind schedule in boxing and maybe in swimming (maybe even athletics although still very early in the outdoor season). I’m not that concerned about slow starts to the season in rowing/ boxing. Our rowing squad started this year better than it did at Europeans last year and I take a strange comfort in the fact that all of our qualified boxers looked off the pace at European championships. Anyway this is how I see our medal hopes. Using the format of favourites/ contenders and outside chances that I think I used before but I think I was slightly more generous with my classifications on this occasion. Athletics Favourites- Rhasidat Adeleke- Has shown good pace so far this year and while she was burnt out by the time world champs came around last year every other year of her career she has managed to peak at the right time. Obviously Sydney McLaughlin is almost impossible to beat and Marileidy Paulino , Shaunau Miller Uibo could well be running sub 49, not to mention the numerous other contenders (Sada Williams , Natalia Kaczmarek , Salwa Eid Naser , whoever else comes through US trials, etc). Based on world relays form she probably is the favourite for silver (Could push McLaughlin? too optimistic but let me dream.). There are definitely numerous ways this doesn’t end up with Adeleke on the podium but we have one of the best athletes in the world and should as such be very confident. Mixed 4*400m- There is a medal available here behind the Dutch and the USA and after world relays it is ours for the taking and this event possibly proves that not having Adeleke probably cost us a podium spot last year. We probably need the men to be faster but there is over a second between Cillín Greene's opening split and Chris O’Donnell at his best and chances are one of Jack Raftery, Cillín Greene, Robert McDonnell, Calum Baird or Thomas Barr could split low 45s for the third leg when the Olympics come around which means I think we can reliably get down to around 3:10.0 (holding Mawdsley and Adeleke’s combined time constant.). That time has never failed to medal at a a global championships. (Side note but had we been bothered to qualify it for world relays the mens 4*400 would have had a shot at qualifying, not a great one given current form but, we definitely don’t have a shot at running the 2:59.1 it would take now presumably at Europeans to get one of the remaining spots compared with the 2:03.0 or so it took in Nassau (I say this even with Greene and Barr running the mixed because there really isn’t much difference between our best 6/7 men’s 400m relay options). Anyway ye, the mixed 4*400 I was going to just call a contender but I think after world relays this is now a favourite to medal. Contenders- Ciara Mageean- 4th in the world last year but I guess Faith Kipyegon , Sifan Hassan and three of Diribe Welteji , Freweyni Hailu , the up and coming Birke Haylom , possibly Gudaf Tsegay and Hirut Meshesha aren’t going to be any easier to beat this year plus there is Laura Muir to think about as well. I don’t think Mageean is going to medal but we know she is in contention. Women’s 4*400- Would possibly take a baton drop/ equivalent misfortune or two for us to medal but I mean they happen. Needing to make the final without Adeleke complicates things obviously but, we did last year although the Olympics are different and I don't think that time woud be good enough but that was without Phil Healy. For a hypothethical final looking at the split times we could take a couple of seconds of the 3:24.3 we ran in the heats at world relays with a rested Mawdsley and Adeleke (I guess Adeleke wouldn't be that rested at that point though.) but would probably need to run 3:21.0 or so to have a chance at medalling which is another step up again. I suspect both 3:21 and making the final without Adeleke are both slightly beyond us but a medal is just about on the table. Outside chances- Adeleke in the 200m? (I’m joking but I would have seriously suggested this if the mixed relay wasn’t also a medal contender.) I don’t really see a world where any other athletics individuals win an Olympic medal but I mean Thomas Barr came largely out of nowhere in 2016. Sarah Healy, Sophie O’Sullivan, Andrew Coscoran could make finals and we have a couple of other outside chances at finals (Reece Ademola?) but I don’t think anyone else has a medal ceiling. Boxing Favourites- Kellie Harrington- She has been kind of due a loss but to be honest she didn’t really seem in shape at Europeans. Lightweight was shaping up to being significantly weaker compared to how strong it was in 2021 with no more Potkonen , Ellis , Dubois or Seesondee and none of them really being replaced but Amy Broadhurst defection changes that slightly. Angie Valdes Pana is probably the only true medal contender to truly emerge this Olympic cycle and Harrington would beat her in my opinion. Harrington hasn’t looked anywhere near her best at any point this Olympic cycle although the closest was the European games medal fights after she had qualification secured. Due to their being a lack of other major contenders I think it’s unlikely she doesn’t medal but she is going to need to be at her 2018 worlds/ 2021 Olympics peak to retain gold and beating one or both of Broadhurst/ Beatriz Ferreira in the process. Then again it is strange to say that I don’t think she wins gold and then list two boxers she has beaten before as her primary competition. Aoife O’Rourke- Has ticked every box you are looking for in an Olympic medallist over the past couple of years. 3 European titles, 2 Strandja titles, 27-1 record, 3 wins against boxers she lost to in the previous Olympic cycle, has beaten 7 of the other 11 boxers currently qualified. I’m still not sure whether they will seed the Olympics but if they do she will be seeded and the risk of facing Tammara Thibeault probably before the final would be gone. All that said for some reason I don’t entirely trust her to medal, Just too many split decisions and fights where she gives her opponent a chance. Despite having beaten them before I wouldn’t really want to see Lovlina Borgohain or Cindy Ngamba again at the Olympics. She should medal, her results/ performances/ previous experience say she should medal, I don’t quite trust it though. Contenders- Kelyn Cassidy- Obviously hasn’t qualified but he has proven to be a top 8 boxer in his weightclass and crucially has proven to be able to beat boxers that might on paper be more talented than him. I don’t think Oleksandr Khyzniak , Arlen Lopez or Nurbek Oralbay would want to face him at all. (Slightly unrelated but I was thinking about what a hypothethical 2028 squad would look like and I don’t think anyone would have thought Kelyn would reach the level he has and hopefully the Olympics if you were doing that exercise in 2020/ early 2021. Just interesting the weightclasses that we don't have an obvious succesor if one is required.) Assuming he qualifies, before the draws happen, I think he may well be our best male medal hope in boxing. Jack Marley- Hasn’t had a good 2024, Has looked indecisive and almost unsure of himself but like he did deserve to beat Victor Schelstraete at Europeans and the Belgian is an awkward opponent who gave Olympic medallist Loren Alfonso Dominguez similar trouble in his next fight, Dominguez just got the 4-3 decision in his favour. I did put him too high in my rankings in December but I do still feel he is a medal contender. Heavyweight is pretty open behind Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine with Keno Machado , an old Julio Cesar La Cruz and Lazizbek Mullojonov behind and then some combination of Enmanuel Reyes , Marley himself, Aibek Oralbay along with the likes of Georgi Kushitashvili and Jamar Talley (who haven’t qualified yet) in contention. At his best Marley can go toe to toe with everyone except Mouhiidine but on current form he would need a favourable draw just to win a fight. I’m willing to bet he is back in the form he was in at European games by the Olympics and while I wouldn’t pick him for a medal I do think he is in contention. Jude Gallagher- I am willing to just about put Jude Gallagher in the contenders tier because its only really Abdumalik Khalokov and Jahmal Harvey that I wouldn’t give him a shot at winning against (Luiz Oliveira might belong in that tier too on review), There will be probably 5-8 boxers he would go in as an underdog against but I mean he has a shot, needs some luck with the draw but not ridiculous luck. Aidan Walsh- Can’t really not call him a contender given that he won a medal last time, He probably either doesn’t qualify or is in contention, 71kg still lacks a clear cut top tier so he draw in this weight class is less about the difficulty of prospective opponents and more just about getting/ avoiding specific matchups. Daina Moorehouse- So we have already established that I am much higher on Daina Moorehouse than others are here. She hasn’t qualified yet obviously and flyweight is proving to be one of the strongest women’s Olympic weight classes. Not qualifying though would be a massive failure given that we have won a silver and a gold medal at recent European championships with two different boxers in this division. It is tough to see Moorehouse beating Nikhat Zareen or Buse Cakiroglu but beyond that the next tier is roughly Sabina Bobokulova , Wu Yu , Chuthamat Raksat and Wassila Lkhadiri all of whom Moorehouse definitely could beat. Fell just short against Lkhadiri and Bobokulova at the qualifiers but both fights were incredibly close. Grainne Walsh- There is a path to a medal here, I do think Grainne is at her peak and she will almost certainly qualify. Reigning 69kg Olympic champion Busnenaz Surmeneli is the favourite with Imane Khelif and Yang Liu behind but after that I don’t have a clear guage on the next 8/9 boxers with Grainne Walsh being somewhere in that group. You can play the well beat/ got picked over Broadhurst/ Lisa O’Rourke and they have beaten Khelif, Yang, Suwannepheng , Panguane game and therefore conclude Grainne Walsh is one the primary contenders or you can look at Walsh’s 2018/2019 results and convince yourself she is unlikely to win a fight. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle and if that makes her contender or not I’m not sure. Outside chances- Michaela Walsh- Maybe this categorisation is harsh but Michaela Walsh I think has shown us who she is as a boxer and it just isn’t a global medallist. The Stheylene Grosy loss at Europeans probably wasn’t as bad as it seems on the surface (talented young boxer and style mismatch) but losing to Mijgona Samadova at Strandja was a mess. You have to wonder if Walsh had gotten a tougher draw at European games would she have even qualified at all. If she can find her form she can compete with anyone in this weight class but on current form even with a somewhat favourable draw she won’t win a fight. Dean Clancy- Clearly a tier below the big medal contenders (Oumiha , Baatarsukh? (potential doping violation), Abdullaev , Guruli ) but look is probably somewhere in the 7/8/9 range of the currently qualified boxers so there is path to a medal with a very favourable draw it is just is tough to see at the moment. Jennifer Lehane- I mean she beat Sara Cirkovic last year who now looks a major contender and look bantamweight is a mess of good but not elite boxers. I don’t think I would currently pick her to qualify but she is just about in the get the right draw and an Olympic medal could be possible. Niamh Fay’s recent form has been pretty encouraging so it was bit of surprise there wasn’t more of a consideration to switching it up for the last qualifier. I think Fay is the natural succesor to Michaela Walsh at 57kg. Canoe Slalom Outside chances- Liam Jegou- Can make the final if things go well, from there who knows. Noel Hendrick?- I think is too optimistic to even consider right. Cycling Contenders- Ben Healy- road race- Ultimately not as successful a classics season as last year but his form is mostly there. It will be interesting who we select as the second rider. Eddie Dunbar is the default pick I suppose but the course doesn’t suit him at all (Crashing out of the Giro doesn’t help either. Seriously after struggling all year, he gives us one day to get excited his GC prospects (outside shot at the podium) and then crashes again. He has to be the most brittle rider in existence right.) Sam Bennett’s form is maybe? improving (definitely a maybe), he at least won a sprint at Pays de la Loire albeit with a solo winner out front. If he doesn’t win at 4 jours de Dunkerque that might be the tour gone again this year although look its no longer Bora who have continued their tradition for the 5/6th straight year of screwing their best sprinter out of a grand tour selection by dropping Sam Welsford for the giro. Obviously current Sammy is not going to be competitive at the Olympics and while the route isn’t that hard, it will be raced like a very chaotic classic (I think Bretagne classic is the best comparison just with Van der Poel and Pogacar). But maybe you pick Sammy because strange things happen maybe it does inexplicably end up with like a solo winner and a forty rider sprint for second or third because this is of course is the one cycling race where 2nd or 3rd really mean something plus just Sammy has never been to the Olympics, if we had a better track program he would have gotten there when he was younger but Rio was mountainous/ before his time and then Tokyo again was hilly and as it turned out he would have been injured anyway. Anyway, I kind of think the right pick is Darren Rafferty, I feel like we will pick Eddie or Sammy, Ryan Mullen would only make sense if he was still a good time trialist and Ben Healy wasn’t and Archie Ryan falls into the same category as Eddie in that the climbs aren’t long or steep enough for him to realistically contribute. Didn’t really end up talking much at all about Ben Healy but like he is exactly the type of rider that wins Olympic medals and the route should suit him. Lara Gillespie- Women’s omnium- Narrowly fourth at Europeans and look the standard does go up for the Olympics in track cycling more than any other sport. I don’t think she has mastered the elimination race yet which will hurt her chances but she has been in good form on the road albeit not at world tour level and she is at worst in amongst it plus could possibly still sneak under the radar a little bit. Equestrian Favourites- Showjumping team- Narrowly 4th at the world championships in 2022, 2nd at Europeans in 2023 and won the recent Ocala League of nations event against as far as my limited equestrian knowledge could tell were close to full strength competition. I mean it always feels like we could medal if not win the team showjumping competition and yet we never have but hopefully this is finally our year. Contenders- Cian O’Connor (Maurice)/ Daniel Coyle (Legacy)/ Darragh Kenny (Amsterdam 27). It is very possible that we select a different team than this and I’m not sure entirely sure who the relevant horses are (just listed the ones from Ocala) which is as important to our chances as who is riding them but we should have three in the final and lets see what happens from there. Eventing team- 5th at the worlds in 2022. Whether or not we are able to get on to the podium for the first time ever is debatable but we are at worst in contention if other teams struggle/ make mistakes. Outside chance- Eventing individual- Austin O’Connor, Padraig McCarthy.- honestly no idea so lets just include them. Golf Favourites- Rory McIlroy- I think Rory medals if not wins here. We are due a golf medal and both he and Shane have talked about wanting this more after missing out in Tokyo. Plus ye know it’s not a major so like Rory is allowed to win. Contenders- Shane Lowry, Leona Maguire- Neither are quite in their peak form although it does feel like both are maybe due a major, certainly Leona is and Shane has been up there enough that he could conceivably win a second. Both will be major contenders but like its golf so who knows whether they ultimately medal or not. Outside chance- Stephanie Meadow- Briefly threatened in Tokyo, definitely possible she could contend this time but it is not a great chance. Gymnastics Favourites- Rhys McClenaghan- Obviously back to back world champion, changed his routine a bit for Europeans and scored 15.300 which is his best score with this code of points along with the 2022 world final. 6.5 D score but I believe if he upped his dismount he could get it up to 6.6/6.7. the difficulty score could be crucial as Max Whitlock is likely to start at 6.9 or 7.0 which means if Rhys is giving up more than 0.2/0.3 in difficulty he essentially needs Whitlock to make a mistake to have a chance at winning because judges don't give out execution scores over about 9.1. Additionnally, Nariman Kurbanov , Ahmad Abu Al Soud and Lee Chih Kai (needs to win the Asian all-around quota to qualify but I believe is the favourite for it) have all shown the ability to score 15.4/15.5s albeit only Lee Chih Kai has done it at world championship level. I think ultimately a clean routine gets Rhys on the podium but he will likely need the performance of his life to win. Then again he is at his peak, he has been through the heartbreaker of Tokyo and like this is it, if he is ever going to produce that performance it’s got to be in Paris. Rowing I’m not panicking over early season results, Every Olympic boat (Of course we haven't seen the lightweight doubles yet) except the womens four lost at its opening regatta to at least one boat it beat at last years worlds and produced fairly similar performances to last years Europeans and while its not ideal I’m not panicking with this squad. Favourites- Men’s lightweight double- I mean its going to win gold, not much else to say. Men’s double- The men’s double is the most volatile boat in rowing, None of the 2022 podium was still on the podium in 2023 and only one (France) kept their podium position from 2021-2022 and China from 2019-2021. The Sinkovic’s switching boat classes all but guarantees there will be one change but us and the Dutch both keeping our podium positions would be bucking the recent trend. Based on the early regattas Romania’s new combination and Germany seemingly could be threats plus the more established Italy and Spain. I do think this was the boat in the best shape of our Olympic boats at World cup 1/ Europeans and I would currently pick it for a medal but it will inevitably be very close. Philip Doyle's record of making the podium in A finals is very good although I'm not sure that actually means much. Contenders- Women’s pair- Haven’t really yet proven they can beat any of the Dutch, Romanians or Australians one of whom they would need to beat to get on the podium. They were at least close to the Dutch at world cup 1 albeit the Dutch also tend to start their season a bit slower and then peak at the end of the season. This pair could absolutely medal and the young Greek pair is probably the only other boat that could break into the top 4. Men’s pair- It feels a little bit harsh to not put the reigning world bronze medallist as favourites but a. Their world cup 1 performance was terrible albeit with the caveat of a disrupted build up and b. Romania underperformed in last year’s final and they have shifted their squad around (I’m unsure whether or not Marius Cozmiuc and Sergiu Bejan will come back into the boat or not) but either way Romania are major contenders. There are five big contenders here with the Swiss, GB, Romania, Croatia and us in roughly that order although the swiss only managed 3rd at Europeans. This will be tough and unlike our above boats, lack of Olympic experience could be a factor. Would be disappointing if we don’t make the A final but from there I have no idea what order these boats will finish in. Women’s lightweight double- I (perhaps delusionally) think this boat was on track to retain its world bronze medal before they got screwed by the lane draw/ weather in the semis at worlds last year. There are a ton of contenders in this boat class, GB, USA, Romania who have their 2017/2018 world champion combination back together, Canada, New Zealand ,us, maybe Poland and whichever two of Greece, France and Italy and can come through FOQR. World cup ii will be interesting but given the quality of the boats at FOQR there is every chance we won’t have a complete picture of this boatclass until the Olympics. I quietly like our chances though and if I had to pick one of the 4 boats I have listed as a contender here to medal it might be this one. Women’s double- Rough start to the year with the injury that kept them out of world cup I and then kind of struggling at Europeans. I was pretty confident that this boat would end up ahead of the USA (last year's bronze medallists) and likely in a battle with Lithuania for silver but Norway’s emergence has thrown a wrench in that. I was happy initially happy Inger Seim Kavlie moved into the double as it has made Sanita’s qualification pathway in the single slightly easier but I didn’t expect this Norwegian boat to be that good. I’m a little bit surprised other countries haven’t realised how open this boatclass is. (Lithuania were nowhere with a quad a couple of years ago but have been flying in the double.) Our double is still a young boat and I think will get a lot better as the year goes on although there is the possibility we slightly overperformed at last years worlds. Similar to the men’s pair, focus on making the A final and then see what happens but making the final is a lot easier in this boatclass compared with others. Outside chances- Women’s four/ Womens single- You can’t entirely Sanita out and the four I mean currently looks like the 8th best boat in the world and could conceivably be as high 5/6th by the time the Olympics comes around. Has a chance of making an A final and has Olympic medalists in the boat so a medal can’t be ruled out but is very unlikely. Finally I do think Konan Pazzaia has a legitimate shot at qualifying, European qualifying went as expected and he just needs to beat either of whoever Italy select or George Bourne. Zero medal hopes though. Rugby Sevens Favourites- Men’s Sevens- The men’s team on the surface looks like a medal favourite, they won bronze at the 2022 worlds, They finished second in the regular season of the Sevens series with 4 podium finishes out of seven and never finishing lower than fifth, Terry Kennedy is possibly the best player in the world and we have a deep and versatile squad. The issue is I think if you were to ask most people who will win the rugby sevens medals in Paris they probably would say three of Fiji, New Zealand, Argentina and France and leave Ireland in a second tier with Australia, the USA and I guess South Africa if they qualify. I don’t know, Fiji will load their team in Paris and will likely reach a level they haven’t been even close to over the last couple of years, New Zealand are world champions and similarly will be tough to beat at their best and we have largely struggled with that matchup, Argentina had looked unbeatable at times this year but their dominance has been broken somewhat over the last couple of series and like South Africa won the first four series in 2022 and then just hit at wall and have been middle of the pack since. Antoine Dupont is class but I do think his impact is slightly overblown just in that France were really strong to begin with and some of his craftiness and ability to open up space isn’t as effective in sevens as it is in normal rugby, France have had the better of recent matchups but they have all been very close. It will help if we can win our group in Paris and hopefully avoid meeting any of the other top 4 teams in a quarter final. To be honest I quietly like our chances but ye know, let’s see how Madrid goes as I assume countries will use it as a warm up for Paris. Contenders- Women’s Sevens- To be honest I don’t think the women are contenders to medal but given who else I have categorised as a contender in this exercise and that they should make the quarter finals and could conceivably go further I guess they are. Like, we have made the semifinals once in our last ten series events. Then again, I think we are the fifth most likely to medal so yeah, I guess that makes us contenders. Injuries and a focus on the women’s six nations (which makes sense) have led to use being further down the rankings this season compared to the last couple of years. I do think at our best we are better than Fiji and Canada but we are just so clearly a tier below New Zealand, Australia and France. The USA are better than us but I could see us beating them. Fiji caused a shock in Tokyo beating Australia so like it is possible, I just don’t think it is likely and if a shock does happen I don’t think we will be the ones who create it. Sailing Contenders- Finn Lynch (ILCA7)- 2nd at 2022 worlds 3rd at this years Europeans, maybe not quite the profile of a prospective Olympic medallist in between but he has shown an ability to reach the podium. Second Olympics as well after Rio so experience is not a concern. Outside chances- Eve McMahon (ILCA6), Robert Dickson and Sean Waddilove (49er- assuming they get picked)- Eve McMahon has yet to really break through at senior level and look this Olympics may well be the precursor to bigger and better things for Eve but maybe all of a sudden things just clicks for her. Dickson and Waddilove have stagnated a bit over the last couple of years but its not out of the question they could push for the podium here although it would require consistency that they haven’t ever really had. Swimming Favourites- Daniel Wiffen- From a medal perspective, probably our most important athlete given that it is possible if not likely he either comes away with two medals or zero. Best chance is the 1500m although it may well take a world record. 800m is a bit tougher as it suits the like of Ahmed Hafnaoi more and brings the likes of Sam Short into contention. Contenders- Mona McSharry- Probably a tier below the big contenders (Lydia Jacoby, Qianting Tang , Lilly King, Ruta Meilutyte, Tatjana Schoenmaker) but was within a few strokes of the podium last year and her heat time would have been enough to get there. She is likely at her peak and she has consistently hit pbs when it counted the most so let's see I guess. Taekwondo Contenders- Jack Woolley- Maybe it is generous to consider Jack a contender given his record at global championships isn’t great. I’m not entirely sure how seeding works in taekwondo but its very possible that Jack ends up fighting Lucas Guzman the same athlete he lost to in Tokyo again in the first round. Outside chances Contenders Favourites Athletics 0 2 2 Boxing 3 6 2 Canoe Slalom 1 0 0 Cycling 0 2 0 Equestrian 2 5 1 Golf 1 2 1 Gymnastics 0 0 1 Rowing 2 4 2 Rugby Sevens 0 1 1 Sailing 2 1 0 Swimming 0 1 2 Taekwondo 0 1 0 Total 11 25 12 Ultimately, I think boxing is a fairly safe bet for two medals with I think being able to comfortably project a third if 3 of Cassidy, Aidan Walsh, Grainne Walsh, Daina Moorehouse qualify at the second world qualifier. Of course we are well aware of how volatile boxing can be but we can still project 2/3 medals. Rowing we have won 3 world championship medals in olympic events at the last 3 world championships and should have won at least 3 in Tokyo. Individually right now I would only project two and I’m not all that confident in the mens double but at the same time I would be pretty surprised if none of the M2-, W2-, W2x or LW2x medal. (lets conservatively say 4 in the two core sports of rowing/ boxing although personally I think we will win 3 in each and think we have the upside to do even better than that.) (4) I think Rhys is a safe medal pick although maybe not gold.(1) Between Rhasidat Adeleke(400m + Mixed 4*400) and Daniel Wiffen (800m +1500m) both essentially represent two medal chances, I like both of their chances but let’s say it either goes right for one and wrong for the other or somewhere in between (say silver/bronze for Wiffen in 1500 but 4th in the 800 and Adeleke medals individually but it doesn’t work out for the relays.) (2) Then looking at Ireland’s traditionally strong sports that we haven’t had comparable Olympic success, lets be conservative and say one of Golf, Equestrian and Rugby Sevens ends up winning one Olympic medal. (1) Look things can and will go wrong but without even considering any surprise medals I have us at I think at quite a safe 8 medals and would probably predict 10 right now although saying that out loud makes me nervous. (Admittedly the LM2x might be the only one I would pick for gold.) I started off this cycle thinking 8 is the target, 10+ is the goal and anything less than 6 is a disaster and that hasn’t changed for me. Just because we have failed miserably in past Olympics doesn’t mean we should be ok with falling short again at this one especially with the Olympics in Paris which after London is as close to home advantage as we can get. Additionally, we have underperformed in Rio and Tokyo and if we had say won 5 in Rio and 7 in Tokyo where with average luck we may well have, how much more optimistic would we be about our chances this time around? Finally just on expectations, I have included this table of roughly comparable countries population and wealth wise and their summer (very relevant caveat for Norway) Olympic medal performances. 2008 2012 2016 2020 Denmark 7 9 15 11 Belgium 2 3 6 7 New Zealand 9 13 18 20 Czech Republic 7 11 10 11 Norway 9 4 4 8 Average 6.8 8 10.6 11.4 Ireland 3 6 2 4 I know this is a massive oversimplification of a very complex question but I do think we should be winning and targeting ten medals consistently. Even with our current level of funding and investment I think we should be consistently hitting the high single digits medal wise. Just look at recent medal tables and the countries we are finishing around. There is no good reason why we can't consistently be a top 30/35 country on the medal table and yet we have broken the top 40 once this century.

So it is quite late in the qualifying process but I did do a quick update of my qualifying projections. We are down significantly since 3 months ago but still on track for over 130 which is even accounting for qualifying an extra sevens team would still be an improvement on Tokyo so still a good result even if it is not as good as it looked like it could have been a couple of months ago. Very unlikely qualifers (<5%) In with a chance (5-35%) Fifty-fifty (35-65%) Likely qualifers(>65%) Safe qualifiers (>90%) My picks Already qualified Total Athletics 28 9 5 6 4 13 13 24 Badminton 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 Boxing 1 1 1 4 0 4 6 10 Canoe- slalom 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 Canoe- sprint 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cycling- Mountain Biking 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cycling- Road 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 Cycling- Track 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 Diving 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 Equestrian 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 Field Hockey 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 16 Golf 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 4 Gymnastics artistic 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Judo 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Modern Pentathlon 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rowing 4 1 0 1 4 5 12 17 Rugby Sevens 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24 Sailing 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 Shooting 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Swimming 7 0 4 3 1 5 5 10 Taekwondo 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Triathlon 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Weightlifting 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 12 10 15 14 31 100 133 My projection Probabalistic E(q) Floor Ceiling 133 131.0 125.75 136.35 It is very possible I have made a mistake here at some point especially in the more fringe sport where I wasn't that thorough so it is possible that I have included athletes that no longer have any chance of qualifying or maybe even underestimated somebody's chances. Not sure how useful the probabilistic stuff is at this point in the process but I'll include it.

First of all the sevens qualifying system is great. It allows all the best teams to qualify but doesn't gaurantee them a quota. If a country like GB who are the 8/9th best team in the world is gauranteed a quota then there would be something very wrong with that qualifying system. Secondly the gap between any of these sevens teams really isn't very big, Uruguay/ Kenya are a lot closer to the GB/ South Africa/ USA tier than you might think and individual games come down to very fine margins, anyone can beat anyone on their day. Don't be shocked if Chile/ Canada/ Spain/ Tonga or maybe Uganda beat either GB or South Africa at the final qualifier although to be fair big events like qualifiers/ the world cup/ the olympic themselves tend to have significantly less variance than regular series events. Shocks do still happen though. (Basketball playoffs is probably a good comparison) Kenya beating South Africa wasn't that much of a shock though. South Africa's form in the buildup had been terrible. They have bounced back a bit this season but towards the end of last year's sevens series South Africa were really not that much better than Kenya. Finally, bro did you seriously just suggest GB should have beaten Ireland at European games? Like really? That final wasn't even particularly close. You nearly lost to Germany in the quarter final of that tournament which would have meant you wouldn't even be at the final qualifer, Germany bottled it but they had the ball in your 22 down 4 at the end of that game.

My regular season predictions turned out to be half decent so lets give the playoffs a go. I haven't thought as much as I would have liked about these series so I'm sure I'll look back on this in a weeks time and hate half of my predictions but sure look. Eastern conference round 1 Boston Celtics (1) vs Miami Heat (8)- Celtics in 4- This should be what happens but its the heat so you never know. New York Knicks (2) vs Philadelphia 76ers (7)- Sixers in 6- Could be the most interesting series we see at any point in the eastern conference, Would be the best team Joel Embiid has beaten in the playoffs if the sixers can win. I think the coaching advantage decides this. Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Indiana Pacers (6)- Bucks in 7 - Both teams have major question marks, interesting series stylistically especially with regards to pace. I wouldn't be particularly shocked by any outcome in this series Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs Orlando Magic (5)- Magic in 7- One for the purists ay, Both teams will gift the other a game or two, Cavs because of coaching/general playoff incompetence and the Magic because of how inexperienced they are. Western conference 1st round Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs New Orleans Pelicans (8)- Thunder in 5- Likely no Zion makes this less interesting than it could have been. Denver Nuggets (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)- Nuggets in 5- Not sure why I'm giving the lakers a game but I am apparently, I'll preemptively blame the refs. Minnesota Timberwolves (3) vs Phoenix Suns (6)- Timberwolves in 7- Suns won the regular seasons matchups and their Iso heavy offence seem to disarm the stifling Timberwolves defence fairly effectively, Anthony Edwards has probably got to be the best player in this series but timberwolves should win the adjustment battle. Two good coaches just timberwolves have a lot more options. Los Angels Clippers (4) vs Dallas Mavericks (5)- Clippers in 7- This changes if Kawhi doesn't play. Everyone seems to love the Mavs, They are good and Luka is amazing obviously but if they are healthy the clippers should win this just like they won previous clippers mavs series in spite of Luka's brilliance. Also this is a don't trust March basketball series. Eastern conference semis Boston Celtics (1) vs Orlando Magic (5)- Celtics in 4- Whether its Cleveland or Orlando, this is a sweep unless Boston plays with its food. Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Philadelphia 76ers (7)- Sixers in 6- If we get this series, Giannis and Embiid are both healthy at this point although who can stay that way could decide this series. Can't believe I'm picking Embiid and the sixers in the second round given their history but the coaching battle will be crucial in this series and there is only one winner there. Western conference semis Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs Los Angels Clippers (4)- Clippers in 6- Shai is great but for me he is not the calibre of player that the general nba world seems to have decided he is despite not seeing him in the playoffs as a primary option. The thunder are as inexperienced as they come but teams like the clippers will likely be able to out execute them when it comes down to it. Denver Nuggets (2) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (3)- Nuggets in 6- Timberwolves' size has given Denver trouble at times and if there is a defence to slow Denver down its this one. Denver should be too talented though. Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, older Anthony Edwards and this not being directly after the play-in gives Minnesota one more game than they won in this series last year Eastern conference finals Boston Celtics (1) vs Philadelphia 76ers (7)- Celtics in 6- This could be a sweep or this could be ridiculously close. Let's go somewhere in the middle. Western conference finals Denver Nuggets (2) vs Los Angeles Clippers (5)- Nuggets in 5- Clippers had a better record this year against Denver than they had had in recent years and James Harden does allow them offensive versatility that they lacked in this matchup in the past. Denver will score though, potentially a lot. NBA Finals Boston Celtics (1) vs Denver Nuggets (2)- Nuggets in 5- If we get this matchup it would be the highest quality finals we have had in a while. Wouldn't normally read too much into regular season matchups but both teams targeted their two meetings in the regular season and Denver took both. Celtics will have a game or two where they shoot 50+% from 3 but other than that I don't see them beating Denver despite their historically good regular season. Stylistically the Celtics don't have the type of offense or defense that can challenge the Nuggets few chinks. There are a lot of indicators thrown about regarding what a team needs to have the be a title contender (top 10 offense and defense, top 3 seed/ above a certain net rating, etc) but the one that has been most true in recent years is you need to have one of the best 2/3 players in the league. Tatum is far away from that level, maybe this celtics team is the one to prove it wrong and hypothethically against other finals teams of recent years (2022 warriors, 2021 Bucks/ Suns) maybe they would have but Denver is a level above plus they are a bad matchup for the Celtics so for me if this ends up being the finals, Denver wins a shorter than expected but still very entertaining series.

And Japan would take one in the W1x No Peru have the W1x and the LW2x qualified from the American qualifying regatta despite winning neither. I don't think there any gender related rules in the qualification system anymore.

India don't need to win two events. Only Japan who already have the M1x qualified need to win two events if they want to qualify two boats from this regatta. India will almost certainly get two boats qualified here.

Konan Pazzaia looked great in the M1x 4th fastest time overall and half a length down on the world silver medallist. If he can replicate that form through the regatta he will get picked over Colsh for FOQR and would be in contention to qualify. I probably wouldn't read that much into a heat result though and he does need to produce that form 3 more times this weekend. Brian Colsh didn't look very good at all despite being IRL1, maybe despite his physique the single just doesn't suit him, 3rd in his heat left him a little at the mercy of quarter finals draw but he seems to have gotten away with it although will need a better row this afternoon than he produced this morning just to make the semis. The Men's four did not look good at all and Germany, Switzerland, and Italy none of whom have qualified for the Olympics all looked great and were beating the Dutch and the Brits (First time the Brits have lost all Olympic cycle I think.). The one saving grace for the four is A. look new combination, Ronan Byrne new to sweep and B. terrible start and didn't lose that much time down the middle of the course but ye need to be beating Denmark and Ukraine tomorrow if they want any hope of qualifying for the Olympics. I know they are young and all but surely this four should be producing better results than it is. Lets see how they go tomorrow. The men's pair apparently had quite a disrupted preparation with illness and injury so being off the pace of the British/ Swiss is not a disaster but they have a bit of work still to do just to make the final here, they should though. Wouldn't be at all worried about the double being well beaten by Italy, that was true early last year as well. Yeah women's boats all looked great. Maybe Sanita ending her career with an Olympic medal is still on the cards (probably a bit premature but). Only other thing I would mention is Canada opted to not field a women's four at FOQR and Germany who were 11th last year seem to be going for the eight so like its basically gauranteed to be us and Denmark that qualify. Poland is now the biggest threat but they are not a big one and if we can stay ahead of Denmark that won't even matter. But ye I would be thinking about the four in terms of can it get to being competitive in an Olympic final and not worrying much at all whether it will qualify.

If this is how she feels about the Olympics, Why turn pro? Fair enough, this how I should feel but for some reason its not. I just hope it doesn't work out.

It seems to me that it is just too compressed a time frame for it to actually happen. A lot needs to happen in a very short period of time. To be fair to Amy Broadhurst all she has ever said is the Olympics are her dream and her number one goal. She could have transferred to GB two years when it was clear Kellie was getting the Irish selection at 60kg but opted to try to compete at significantly above her natural weight to compete for Ireland. In the unlikely event it is actually possible GB would be crazy to not throw out their selection policy and pick her over Shona Whitwell especially given the severe lack of medal contenders in the British squad at the moment. I dont think I'd hold this against her and if it does happen and she ends up with an Olympic medal as long as she doesn't beat Kellie I think I would be happy for her. I think I would prefer it just doesn't work out though so hopefully dodge's source is right. Out of interest how do the rest of us feel if she was to win an Olympic medal for Paris. I think Sky Brown was the only medal they won in Tokyo where I was happy to see a Brit win and that was A. a cool story and B. she is very much only part British. It will be strange though now if she does end up winning a world title as a pro is it for Britain or Ireland. Finally I do wonder why she doesn't consider more strongly sticking around in the amateurs for LA. I know everytime you mention LA you have to caveat it with ifs and maybes but in all likelihood boxing will end up on the program. Everything Amy has ever said and done indicates the Olympics are what she dreams of. Is your pro career really going to be that different whether you start it at 27 or 31. Like it will probably be 8-10 years or so regardless of when it starts. Is potentially a couple of additional years in the pro ranks really worth giving up on the Olympics assuming this latest pathway doesn't work out. Like Kellie is done after Paris and sure there are some impressive youngsters like Ava Henry and Siofra Lawless coming through but its mostly at 63kg and if you're a 63kg boxer at youth level you're probably at least at 66kg boxer in the senior ranks and regardless Amy would then be in the position selection wise that she was the wrong side of for the last two Olympic cycles.

https://www.rowingireland.ie/2024-world-cup-i-team-announcement/ Well well well, This is an interesting one. The heavyweights normally train in Varese so I suspect us going to world cup 1 is just because it is slightly more conveniant and well slightly higher standard of competition than our typical preseason regatta in Piediluco which was last weekend. The absence of the lightweights probably confirms my suspicion that this is just an end of training camp regatta more than anything else but there are only two weeks between world cup 1 and Europeans and then just 3 weeks from there to FOQR so it is definitely possible that for our not yet qualified boats this will be the only time we see them before FOQR. So no obvious changes in priority boats so despite it seemingly being on the table of prioritising the womens four over the pair, Murtagh and Keogh must be showing medal potential or at least better medal chances than a hypothethical prioritised four. Emily Hegarty as expected comes back in to stroke the four having missed last season through injury but interestingly it is Sanita who isn't in the boat (Natalie Long, Eimear Lambe, Imogen Magner keep their places). Sanita is selected in the single which I suppose will be interesting and probably will get a fair bit of a hype but she very likely missed out on the four so I would probably set the initial expectations quite low and just being in contention to qualify from FOQR would be a big achievement. It probably is the end of Sanita's slim hopes of ending her career with an Olympic medal her career so clearly deserves but until we until we actually see her race we can dream that she chose to race the single and that this is last hurrah in the boat that has made her career. Anyway the likes of Aurelia Maxima Janzen , Virginia Dias Rivas and (H)anna Prakat(s)en / (Should qualify the Asian continental route but may have some competition from the two Uzbek lightweight doubles. They would presumably pick Prakaten if they all won at Asian continental qualifiers but they might gamble if they think Prakaten can qualify through FOQR or maybe she just doesn't win.) haven't yet qualified in the single so I think realistically based on this Sanita will probably end her career as the alternate for the Olympics assuming we qualify the four and get an alternate. (Pretty sure they tightened the number of alternate athletes you can take so its just the 4-/4x/8+ that gets them now.) I hope I'm wrong though. Alison Bergin and Zoe Hyde are very clearly the double but aren't racing here for some reason. Wouldn't be too worried about that, hopefully we see them at Europeans. Tara Hanlon, Aisling Hayes and Holly Davis miss out. You can race up to four boats per boatclass at world cup 1 so if they are in Varese it seems strange not to give them a hit out especially Holly Davis who is presumably targeting an under 23 world medal this year. The mens double is unchanged so Daire Lynch keeps his spot alongside Philip Doyle and the Sinkovic's switching to the pair clearly hasn't scared us into prioritising the four and we have stuck with Nathan Timoney, Ross Corrigan pair. Wouldn't be that shocked if one or both of these boats end up skipping world cup 1 and just focusing on Europeans, the womens pair is in that category too. I mentioned I thought it was possible we would make a decision between prioritising the four or the quad. I did really want a quad but we have gone with a four. Andrew Sheahan and Ronan Byrne! move from the quad into the four replacing Adam Murphy and Fionnan McQuillan Tolan. Sheahan has won under 23 medals in the four but as far as I know Byrne has never raced outside a sculling boat. John Kearney and Jack Dorney unsurprisingly keep their spots. I think the logic here is that going with a four then frees up Brian Colsh for the single but if the four narrowly misses out on qualifying, that theoretical quad may come back to haunt us. Brian Colsh in the single is an interesting move. He is built like a single sculler and obviously his form and I assume his power numbers have probably been great over the past couple of years but it didn't translate to good results in the single at 2022 worlds or last years Europeans albeit the entire squad didn't seem in great shape at last years Europeans. His under 23 world champion double partner Konan Pazzaia also gets a race here in the single which is either a good indication of his form or possibly a reason to not get too excited about Colsh's chances of making the Olympics. (I'm tempted to read into Pazzaia's name being above Colsh's in the selection announcement but I'll refrain from doing so) Assuming it is Colsh that races FOQR and we don't spontaneously make massive changes this is a but harsh on Pazzaia and Adam Murphy as they had both earned a shot at making the Olympics. Both should have multiple future Olympic cycles in them though. As for Fionnan McQuillan Tolan, as soon as we opted against sticking with trying to qualify both a four and a quad his chances were probably done although Natalie Long has proven that older athletes can force their way into the reckoning in a subsequent Olympic cycle having not really been that close before. Normally with early season regattas like Piediluco we don't really need to be too worried about form and stuff but for the 2 fours and the at this point 3 singles they need to look good here and while full entries aren't out yet I would expect to see a fair few of their major competition for qualification at this regatta. Also for the M2x and both pairs the Olympics are over a month earlier than world champs typically are. Now the world cup season shifts forward accordingly but I would still hope to see them in good form here. From a qualifying perspective. One further mens boat and one more womens boat should be the minimum expectation for the quality in this squad. The womens four should qualify and I'd be fairly optimistic about the men's one. We will have a much better idea of our chances in the singles after this regatta. Colsh is talented enough but hasn't proven it in the single yet and Sanita Puspure, well lets wait and see. Qualifying singles at FOQR though is tough given how volatile the boatclass is, even if some of the competition is eligible for continental quotas.

https://www.irishnews.com/sport/amy-broadhurst-everything-ive-put-in-over-the-last-22-years-it-just-feels-like-its-been-blown-away-NSBELKXOX5GJ7KB4X2EBZMXPVE/ I don't understand this decision but best of the luck to Grainne Walsh I guess. Heartbreaking end to her amateur career for Amy Broadhurst. One of our best ever female boxers and yet we never managed to get her to an Olympics. I'd fully expect her to go on to win a world title as a pro but its not the same as an Olympic medal. On a more optimistic note, looks like Wexford boxing's media propaganda campaign over Dean Walsh has failed miserably.

Look I'm definitely more of an NBA fan than an international basketball fan because you know Ireland and our recent historic triumph at the european championships for small countries doesn't really do it for me but this thread is way too low on Canada. They have a very complete roster top to bottom and sure star power matters less than it does in the NBA but Shai Gilgeous Alexander and Jamal Murray are two of the most reliable bucket getters in the world. Canada has a litany of elite defensive wings and as such possibly has the highest defensive upside of anyone here. Maybe it doesn't work out for them but talking about them like they are a team who are unlikely to/ should be satisfied with making the quarter finals is bonkers. Look I love the idea of Jokic punking the Americans or the French beating them on home soil, but for me the team that is best matched to push a possibly ageing US team is Canada. (Admittedly that is not to say that I think they would definitely beat France or Serbia just that they match up better with the Americans.)

For what its worth, I 'd be shocked if this scenario played out and Brazil didn't choose Lucas Verthein Ferreira over their lightweight double. Verthein Ferreira was 12th in Tokyo and 14th at last years world championships and they haven't selected a lightweight double at all this Olympic cycle other than panam games where they finished 4th as far as I am aware. He will almost certainly win here and this should just be a quirk of using heat times so this shouldn't end up mattering but it does have implications for the likes of and in the M1x and in the LM2x. Also what happened to 's LM2x. Felipe Kluver Ferreira and Mauricio Lopez Berocay came 15th at worlds last year. Kluver Ferreira made 3 world cup finals in the LM1x and was under 23 world champion in that boat in 2022. With a bit of luck they made the Olympic final in Tokyo with Kluver Ferreira and Bruno Cetraro Berriolo who is now in the M1x. How are they finishing last in their heat here? Is their new man Franco Liuzzi that bad?

Why not? Let's have the conversation. Is that not what this thread is for? She has 8 international fights and 3 losses in the past year. What's the fourth? All of the losses split decisions. She lost to 2022 European champion 52kg Tetyana Kob at Usti Nad Labem and then reversed that and beat her at European games. Then lost to World bronze medallist Wassila Lkhadiri in a very close fight at European games and then "loses" a fight here that for me she deserved to win against a boxer who just beat the World and Asian champions at Strandja. I guess your refering to the Nikolina Cacic fight at European under22s in 2022. Yeah that was a bad loss but I would make the observation that Nikolina Cacic is in fact an Olympian at 57kg and that Moorehouse is miles better now than she was a couple of years ago. She is young, young boxers improve. Only counting international fights is also a weird way of counting this when Caitlin Fryers is a 2022 European silver medallist in this weightclass and Shannon Sweeney is also a European medallist. You don't stop being an Olympic calibre boxer just because you lose split decisions against some of the best boxers in the world. Like Jude Gallagher had 3 international fights last year and lost all 3. You add in the context that one was against they were against the European champion (Javier Ibanez Diaz), the panam and 2021 world champion (Jahmal Harvey) and Strandja silver medallist (Orazbek Assylkulov)(lost to Ibanez Diaz and beat two other now qualified Olympians including the now World champion plus the reigning European champ at the time at the same tournament.) He qualified here and looks a decent outside bet for an Olympic medal. I just think this a very reductive way of looking at Moorehouse. Her results are consistent with a comfortably top 8-10 boxer in the world. I had her 10th when I ranked them in December. I would move her up a couple of spots now having beaten Thi Tham Nguyen. Boxrec currently has her 9th with one per nation. (10th with double Japan.) Lastly there are 22 spots at W50kg (well 21 plus a universality spot). Even if you are a bit lower on Moorehouse you should still expect her to qualify. There really isn't a bad draw left other than maybe Namiki as I said. He seemed happy enough here. Certainly possible but I think if he is in a good place mentally which he seems to be he will go.

Who do you think would beat Moorehouse? She has beaten Thi Tham Nguyen and Tetyana Kob . She looked a lot stronger than the likes of Alua Balkybekova , Natalia Kuczewska and Pihla Kaivo Oja at this tournament. Maybe if Olympic medallist Tsukimi Namiki comes back into the Japan squad but even then I think I would back Moorehouse. Probability doesn't work like this but there is a bit of she has to get a good draw eventually right? I would be more worried about Cassidy given there are only three quotas left and a just under 25% chance he draws Alfiorau before the semis. Cassidy has improved a lot since he lost to Alfiorau in 2021 and got a lot closer to beating Oralbay than Alfiorau did so it certainly wouldn't be a gauranteed loss but I'm sure Cassidy is sick of having to beat world champions just to qualify. (I know Alfiorau is technically only a world silver medallist but still) I think a lot of luck for the others is a bit strong. It would help but like there is no one left that Aidan Walsh or Jennifer Lehane can't beat. Walsh, I think would love a second go at Wanderson but Wanderson would start as favourite. He has beaten Nishant Dev before. Zakhareiev , Eashash and Schachidov would all be close fights but I think Walsh would start as the favourite. He would definitely be favoured against Durkacz , Cuellar or Richardson . Obviously ideally he would only have to beat 1 maybe 2 of these boxers but he certainly doesn't "need" a lot of luck with the draw. Plus there are five quotas so a little bit of extra scope draw wise. There will probably be one weird one like Kiwan this time around but like probably at least 4 of the 9 boxers I mentioned will qualify and Walsh is at worst in the middle of that pack. Lehane admittedly has it a bit tougher but like, for me at least she is better than Sirine Charaabi and Thi Kim Anh Vo who qualified here. Obviously don't really know exactly what happened against Romane Moulai and if she can't beat Moulai or that kind of calibre of boxer again ye she probably isn't making the Olympics. Hsiao wen Huang and Anastasia Kovalchuk losing here doesn't help although Kovalchuk's recent form has been terrible so maybe that fight would be winnable. Zhaina Shekerbekova , Sandra Drabik , Johana Gomez , Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (assuming Mongolia show up to the second qualifier), the aforementioned Moulai, Im Aeji (who beat Hsiao Wen Huang and deserved to beat Charaabi) and maybe Scarlett Delgado would all be tough. She beat Sara Cirkovic which in hindsight was a really good win and obviously outclassed Niamh Fay at nationals who I think has beaten 4 boxers who are now qualified for the Olympics (in 3 different weightclasses) over the last couple of years. (If only Niamh Fay was in any way consistent ay.) Like she is capable of this calibre of win. Also the draw obviously could be very kind (Kovalchuk had a kind draw here and then bottled it losing to Islem Ferchichi . I have no idea why Ukraine did so poorly here. Yeah I know, there is a war on but like this was still a remarkably awful performance from Ukraine.) but when you have a situation where you have 8/9 fairly evenly matched boxers for 4 quotas you kind of know on balance you will have to beat 1 or 2 of said boxers. I think she is good enough but let's see. Martin McDonagh obviously is still a long shot but he is rapidly improving. Took 2 really good wins here and had the closest fight of the tournament against a Tokyo Olympian. Obviously with the likes of Fernando Arzola and Danabieke Bayikewuzi still in the mix qualifying is very unlikely but Omar Shiha managed to ride his luck a bit here and get a quota and I don't think he is much better than McDonagh. There are still probably 9 or so boxers definitely ahead of McDonagh so he would need to cause possibly multiple upsets but they happen especially at super heavyweight. The optimistic way of looking at things for Sean Mari is well Juanma Lopez came out of nowhere and through a weak bracket to qualify here. You need to be very optimistic to convince yourself that Mari still has a chance though. I just kind of hope he gets a straightforward draw in his first couple of fights. Losing his first fight at all 3 qualifying tournaments would be harsh on the man. Just for completeness W66kg whether it is Walsh/ Broadhurst/ O'Rourke (I think O'Rourke is unlikely at this point. Feel like if she was going to get picked it would have been here. Hopefully she gets her chance in LA.). Getting Stefanie Von Berge again wouldn't be ideal but us qualifying at W66kg has to be the safest pick of any of the 51 quotas available at the second world qualifer. So for me disregarding injury risk, surprise selections or a robbery worse than the Grainne Walsh one today our chances look roughly like. Boxer Qualification chance Daina Moorehouse 75%-85% Jennifer Lehane 45%-55% Grainne Walsh/ Amy Broadhurst 90%-95% Sean Mari 1%-2% Aidan Walsh 60%-70% Kelyn Cassidy 75%-80% Martin McDonagh 5%-10% Cumalative expected qualifiers 3.51-3.97 boxers So I am still at should get 3 (9 in total), hopefully get 4 (10), Not out of the question we could get 5 (11) but at this point that is unlikely. Then again, Unfortunately the risk of falling even of the IABA's original taget of 8 still exists when we really could (and should) have been going into the final qualifier mostly playing with house money.