Surfing Qualification to Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games

[phelps 8,715]

1 hour ago, Nate River said:

After 3/11 events, the following athletes are provisionally in a qualifying position from the World Surf League. Note: athletes from Hawaii are marked with (HAW) as they compete  separately in Surfing. I am only including athletes that are qualified to compete on the tour in the selection battle (theoretically an athlete that isn't on tour could qualify for enough events to be selected, but this is unlikely).

 

Men

1.  (HAW) John John Florence
2.   Kanoa Igarashi
3.  Italo Ferreira
4.  Filipe Toledo
5.  Kolohe Andino
6.  Jordy Smith
7.  Jérémy Florès
8.  Wade Carmichael
9.  Ryan Callinan
10.  Michel Bourez

Michel Bourez had a good result in Bali, which allowed him to increase his gap over  Leonardo Fioravanti.

 

 American selection battle:

1. (HAW) John John Florence - 17,415 points
2. Kolohe Andino - 13,875 points
3. Conner Coffin - 11,385 points
4. Kelly Slater - 11,095 points
5. (HAW) Seth Moniz - 9,395 points
6. (HAW) Ezekiel Lau - 2,925 points
7. Griffin Colapinto - 2,925 points
8. (HAW) Sebastian Zietz - 1,860 points

A semi-final appearance has propelled 47 year old Kelly Slater, the greatest contest surfer in history and a big influence in getting Surfing in the Olympics, into contention for a spot on the American team.

 

 Brazilian selection battle:

1. Italo Ferreira - 16,075 points
2. Filipe Toledo - 15,865 points
3. Gabriel Medina - 10,820 points
4. Michael Rogrigues - 8,745 points
5. Wilian Cardoso - 7,970 points
6. Yago Dora - 5,980 points
7. Peterson Crisanto - 5,980 points
8. Deivid Silva - 5,980 points
9. Jesse Mendes - 4,915 points
10. Jadson Andre - 2,925 points
11. Adriano de Souza - 795 points

Michael Rogrigues put himself in the conversation for a potential Olympic spot with a semi-final finish in Bali.

 

 Australian selection battle:

1. Wade Carmichael - 10,820 points
2. Ryan Callinan - 10,735 points
3. Owen Wright - 7,970 points
4. Adrian Buchan - 7,405 points
5. Mikey Wright - 5,980 points
6. Julian Wilson - 5,980 points
7. Jack Freestone - 5,980 points
8. Soli Bailey - 2,925 points

Carmichael moves up two spots to take the lead of the Australian battle.

 

 French selection battle:

1. Jérémy Florès - 12,450 points
2. Michel Bourez - 7,970 points
3. Joan Duru - 4,915 points

Florès takes a commanding lead over Bourez and Duru thanks to a runners-up finish in Bali.

 

Women

1.  Stephanie Gilmore
2.  Caroline Marks
3.  Courtney Conlogue
4.  Sally Fitzgibbons
5.  Brisa Hennessy
6.  Tatiana Weston-Webb
7.  Johanne Defay
8.  Silvana Lima

Lima comes back from injury and competes for the first time this season, immediately overtaking  Paige Hareb for the last automatic qualification spot.

 

 American selection battle (where the real action is on the women's side, the US has 7 of the top 12):

• Caroline Marks - 18,695 points
• Courtney Conlogue - 17,355 points
• (HAW) Carissa Moore - 17,290 points
• (HAW) Malia Manuel - 16,495 points
• Lakey Peterson - 11,305
• (HAW) Coco Ho - 9,965

The American selection has developed into an extremely close four way race between Marks, Conlogue, Moore and Manuel. They are all basically within one round win of each other at the moment.

 Australian selection battle:

1. Stephanie Gilmore - 19,490 points
2. Sally Fitzgibbons - 16,495 points
3. Nikki Van Dijk - 11,305 points
4. Bronte Macaulay - 9,965 points
5. Macy Callaghan - 6,265 points
6. Tyler Wright - 3,135 points

Van Dijk finished third in Bali, but it didn't help her get a place in Tokyo as Gilmore and Fitzgibbons finished 1-2.

 

actually, Fioravanti had the same result as Bourez in Bali...so also the gap between them remained the same...

 

unfortunately for Italy, then Fioravanti injured himself yesterday in Western Australia @ the Margaret River Pro and left our Country basically without representation at the top level (even if one of our 3 "bought" female surfers could make a miracle at next year's ISA World Champs and still put the Italian Flag among the Tokyo participants, although I think it's gonna be really improbable)...

I don't know how severe this injury is in surfing terms and if it leaves Fioravanti's qualification chances still on the table at the same ISA Worlds from next year...

[phelps 8,715]

22 minutes ago, Dragon said:

What might be interesting is to work out how many of the surfers from the big nations will try to find qualifications for other countries between now and Tokyo.

 

even if I read about many surfers switching Nationality, right now, I don't see any true big name trying to go for a different Nation than their usual...

among the WSL men and women, the only one who could do it (Nikki Van Dijk could easily start for the Netherlands), has not done it...

and I don't see any Brazilian trying to go for Portugal, too...

among the lower levels of competition, the only thing I know is that Italy has enrolled 3 girls with clear Italian heritage but born and raised abroad (veteran Claire Bevilacqua from AUS; Giada Legati who's half Italian, half French and lives in Bali; Emily Gussoni from CRC)...

[Dragon 2,072]

19 minutes ago, phelps said:

 

even if I read about many surfers switching Nationality, right now, I don't see any true big name trying to go for a different Nation than their usual...

among the WSL men and women, the only one who could do it (Nikki Van Dijk could easily start for the Netherlands), has not done it...

and I don't see any Brazilian trying to go for Portugal, too...

among the lower levels of competition, the only thing I know is that Italy has enrolled 3 girls with clear Italian heritage but born and raised abroad (veteran Claire Bevilacqua from AUS; Giada Legati who's half Italian, half French and lives in Bali; Emily Gussoni from CRC)...

I think Tatiana Weston-Webb choose to compete for her mother's country of Brazil over America, where she had lived since she was a baby, and her father's country of Great Britain.

But that is slightly different.

[phelps 8,715]

1 hour ago, Dragon said:

I think Tatiana Weston-Webb choose to compete for her mother's country of Brazil over America, where she had lived since she was a baby, and her father's country of Great Britain.

But that is slightly different.

 

Yes, but it's quite a long time that Tatiana is representing Brazil in the WSL...so, I didn't count her among those looking for a new passport just to make it for the Tokyo Olympics...

more than anything, I expected some Spanish-speaking Central and South Americans trying to go for Spain, but at the moment it doesn't look the case (and I think Italian shopping is also over)...

[NearPup 4,183]

6 hours ago, phelps said:

 

actually, Fioravanti had the same result as Bourez in Bali...so also the gap between them remained the same...

 

unfortunately for Italy, then Fioravanti injured himself yesterday in Western Australia @ the Margaret River Pro and left our Country basically without representation at the top level (even if one of our 3 "bought" female surfers could make a miracle at next year's ISA World Champs and still put the Italian Flag among the Tokyo participants, although I think it's gonna be really improbable)...

I don't know how severe this injury is in surfing terms and if it leaves Fioravanti's qualification chances still on the table at the same ISA Worlds from next year...

His next big chance would be in September, at the World Surf Games. If he is healthy enough then his biggest competition for the European quota will come from Portugal.

[phelps 8,715]

6 minutes ago, Nate River said:

His next big chance would be in September, at the World Surf Games. If he is healthy enough then his biggest competition for the European quota will come from Portugal.

 

he should be back in full shape by that time...in the end, he only dislocated his shoulder (the problem is that he was just regaining his confidence from the same kind of injury to the same shoulder that happened about 3 months ago)...

 

[NearPup 4,183]

Big news: world number one  (HAW) John John Florence is out for the rest of the year with a torn ACL. This means he is extremely unlikely to qualify for the Olympics since the US selection is based on results from this year.

 

The door is now open for Kelly Slater, Connor Coffin or Seth Moniz to grab the second spot on the US team.

Edited July 2, 2019 by NearPup

[Olympian1010 8,301]

29 minutes ago, NearPup said:

Big news: world number one  (HAW) John John Florence is out for the rest of the year with a torn ACL. This means he is extremely unlikely to qualify for the Olympics since the US selection is based on results from this year.

 

The door is now open for Kelly Slater, Connor Coffin or Seth Moniz to grab the second spot on the US team.

Kelly Slater would be the people’s choice here, so hopeful he’s able to win the quota.

[NearPup 4,183]

1 hour ago, Olympian1010 said:

Kelly Slater would be the people’s choice here, so hopeful he’s able to win the quota.

Kelly Slater competing in the Olympics would be extremely special. He’s a big reason the sport even made it to the Olympics in the first place.

[NearPup 4,183]

After 5/11 events for the men and 5/10 events for the women, the following athletes are provisionally in a qualifying position from the World Surf League. Note: athletes from Hawaii are marked with (HAW) as they compete  separately in Surfing. I am only including athletes that are qualified to compete on the tour in the selection battle (theoretically an athlete that isn't on tour could qualify for enough events to be selected, but this is unlikely).

 

Men

1.  (HAW) John John Florence
2.  Kolohe Andino
3.  Filipe Toledo
4.  Jordy Smith
5.   Kanoa Igarashi
6.  Italo Ferreira
7.  Ryan Callinan
8. Julian Wilson
9.  Michel Bourez
10.  Jérémy Florès

 

As far as International qualification goes the biggest development is that Leonardo Fioravanti is injured, which means that Ricardo Christie is now the closest challenger to France's second quota. However he has not finished higher than 17th in any competition this season, which makes his chances very low. In practice the biggest threat to France is injury replacement Frederico Morais, who scored a third place in Rio. He is very far behind Florès, having only competed in two events this season, but he has at least showed the potential to get some big results.

 

 American selection battle:

1. (HAW) John John Florence - 32,160 points
2. Kolohe Andino - 27,760 points
3. Kelly Slater - 17,735 points
4. Conner Coffin - 16,035 points
5. (HAW) Seth Moniz - 14,610 points
6. Griffin Colapinto - 7,575 points
7. (HAW) Sebastian Zietz - 6,510 points
8. (HAW) Ezekiel Lau - 6,510 points

The American selection battle has been completely shaken up by the news that world number one John John Florence is out for the year with a torn ACL. This means he will finish the year on 33,220 points (taking into account that injured competitors get last place points for every events and that only the best nine results count). This means that Kelly Slater or Connor Coffin will overhaul him if they can maintain good results. Slater, widely considered the GOAT of the sport, would be 48 in Tokyo.

 

 Brazilian selection battle:

1. Filipe Toledo - 27,195 points
2. Italo Ferreira -  22,150 points
3. Gabriel Medina - 16,895 points
4. Michael Rogrigues - 13,395 points
5. Deivid Silva - 10,630 points
6. Wilian Cardoso - 10,630 points
7. Caio Ibelli - 10,340 points
8. Yago Dora - 9,565 points
9. Peterson Crisanto - 9,565 points
10. Jesse Mendes - 9,565 points
11. Jadson Andre - 5,585 points
12. Adriano de Souza - 2,390 points

Filipe Toledo takes a fairly commanding lead thanks to his win in Rio. Ferreira and Medina have maintained the same distance between each other since the last update.

 

 Australian selection battle:

1. Julian Wilson - 16,810  points
2. Ryan Callinan - 16,810  points
3. Wade Carmichael - 14,405  points
4. Owen Wright - 12,620  points
5. Jack Freestone - 8,640 points
6. Adrian Buchan - 7,935  points
7. Mikey Wright - 6,510  points
8. Soli Bailey - 5,585 points

Wilson jumps from seventh to second in the Australian selection battle thanks to a third place in Margaret River and a fifth place in Rio. Carmichael falls out of Olympic qualification.

 

 French selection battle:

1. Michel Bourez - 14,610 points
2. Jérémy Florès -  14,045 points
3. Joan Duru - 9,565 points

Bourez takes the lead over Florès while Duru isn't able to make up ground over the top two.

 

Women

1.  Sally Fitzgibbons
2.  Caroline Marks
3.  Stephanie Gilmore
4.  Courtney Conlogue
5.  Tatiana Weston-Webb
6.  Brisa Hennessy
7.  Johanne Defay
8.  Silvana Lima

Lima slightly increases the gap over  Paige Hareb who has still not managed to reach a quarter-final this season

 

 American selection battle (where the real action is on the women's side, the US has 7 of the top 12):

1. (HAW) Carissa Moore -  31,175 points
2. Courtney Conlogue - 26,845  points
3. Caroline Marks - 26,050 points
4. Lakey Peterson -  26,050 points
5. (HAW) Malia Manuel -  21,715 points
6. (HAW) Coco Ho - 15,185

Carissa Moore has established herself as the clear favourite with a third place in Margaret River and a second place in Rio. Lakey Peterson has introduced herself as a contender thanks to her win in Margaret River, in the process becoming the third American to win on tour this season. The American selection battle on the women's side remains the most interesting and high calibre of the lot.

 Australian selection battle:

1. Sally Fitzgibbons -  32,580 points
2. Stephanie Gilmore - 30,320 points
3. Bronte Macaulay - 15,185 points
4. Nikki Van Dijk - 14,960 points
5. Kelly Andrew - 13.395 points
6. Macy Callaghan - 9,920 points
7. Tyler Wright - 5,225 points

Gilmore and Fitzgibbons continue to increase their lead over the rest of the field. At this point it is hard to imagine them failing to qualify baring injury.