Makedonas 1,749 Posted April 13, 2021 #101 Share Posted April 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, LDOG said: This will be the first time since I follow games that we will go with nothing but outside chances. Very grim looking. It's also telling that it's pretty much the same people that had chances 5 years ago, only that older and in decline. We haven't been able to develop a single new world class athlete. Even Chile has bigger chances than us, embarassing. If it makes you feel better, Argentina is an elite nation in football. Many other nations would give up every other sport to be in Argentina's position in football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDOG 2,221 Posted April 13, 2021 #102 Share Posted April 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, Makedonas said: If it makes you feel better, Argentina is an elite nation in football. Many other nations would give up every other sport to be in Argentina's position in football We're not even top 8 anymore but that's a debate for another day anyway, I care more about olympics than about football since many years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragon 1,754 Posted April 13, 2021 #103 Share Posted April 13, 2021 On 12/04/2021 at 05:07, thiago_simoes said: Who would you pick for these three medals? I'm just curious. Whitlock, Taeja James and Dominic Cunningham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragon 1,754 Posted April 13, 2021 #104 Share Posted April 13, 2021 I'll give an example of how hard it is to predict some medals. Christina Hammer of Germany has been a world professional boxing champion for 10 years. Earlier this year she decided to try to qualify for the Olympics. Immediately she becomes a hot favourite for a medal. Then the final qualifier get cancelled and she has no chance to qualify for Tokyo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heywoodu 13,663 Posted April 13, 2021 #105 Share Posted April 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, Dragon said: I'll give an example of how hard it is to predict some medals. Christina Hammer of Germany has been a world professional boxing champion for 10 years. Earlier this year she decided to try to qualify for the Olympics. Immediately she becomes a hot favourite for a medal. Then the final qualifier get cancelled and she has no chance to qualify for Tokyo. But the same goes for your post before, about the three Olympic medalists. That would be counted as 'three possible medals', but when they are supposed to come from only three people, it's more realistic for that to result in one or two medals (let's say all three have a 60% medal chance, it'd be likely to get 1 or 2 then) Increase the scale to the total medals for countries with dozens of participants with at least a small medal chance and things get incredibly tricky If you'd like to help our fellow Totallympics member Bruna Moura get to the 2026 Winter Olympics, after her car crash on the way to the 2022 Olympics, every tiny bit of help would be greatly appreciated! Full story and how to help can be found here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phelps 7,213 Posted April 13, 2021 #106 Share Posted April 13, 2021 11 hours ago, intoronto said: @phelpsI think you forgot about the 200m back in swimming yeah, and also the women's 200m free (this one was intentional, I'm going for all the the superstitious rituals on that )... however, I think it's only an outside chance for bronze...Regan Smith and Kaylee McKeown are out of reach...add a surprising newcomer (there are always some at the olympics) and the podium is dead and gone... and I also hope to see another 1 or 2 of our youngsters (or even veterans) overperforming and getting a pair of unexpected medals, but obviously I didn't include that kind of expectations in my prediction... intoronto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragon 1,754 Posted April 13, 2021 #107 Share Posted April 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, heywoodu said: But the same goes for your post before, about the three Olympic medalists. That would be counted as 'three possible medals', but when they are supposed to come from only three people, it's more realistic for that to result in one or two medals (let's say all three have a 60% medal chance, it'd be likely to get 1 or 2 then) Increase the scale to the total medals for countries with dozens of participants with at least a small medal chance and things get incredibly tricky All I can say it that, in 2012, I predicted 15 gold medals for GBR and they won 29. In Rio I predicted 17 and they won 27. I hope I'm not too biased. heywoodu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heywoodu 13,663 Posted April 13, 2021 #108 Share Posted April 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dragon said: All I can say it that, in 2012, I predicted 15 gold medals for GBR and they won 29. In Rio I predicted 17 and they won 27. I hope I'm not too biased. I'm curious what I prediced in the past few Olympics (I know I did 2018 and 2016, probably also 2014 but I'm not sure about that one), I'll take a look when I'm at home If you'd like to help our fellow Totallympics member Bruna Moura get to the 2026 Winter Olympics, after her car crash on the way to the 2022 Olympics, every tiny bit of help would be greatly appreciated! Full story and how to help can be found here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicsFan 791 Posted April 13, 2021 #109 Share Posted April 13, 2021 11 hours ago, NMQ said: Right now i´m pessimistic for , all our teams/athletes with medal chances are either a mistery or not in their best form, or compete in events that are hard to predict. All in all, I´d say something between 1-3. Our most realistic chances for a medal would be: Field hockey: women´s team should be our best shot this time, they just played their first couple official games in one year so it´s hard to judge their level, but I think they are favourites to medal unlike the last time. On the opposite, the men are the current champions, but the cycle has been a mess and I don´t think they will repeat the podium. Football (men): impossible to know, depends a lot on the names that can play and even then it´s kinda random. But the team will be more prepared than in Rio, that´s for sure. Judo (women´s 48 Kg): final olympic tournament por Paula Pareto. She won´t be a medal favourite this time I think, but she´s in the mix and with her experience and a good draw can make it happen. Sailing (Nacra17): current olympic champions, don´t think they are favourites for a medal again, but who knows, this one is very hard to guess. Smaller chances, but if all the planets align: Basketball (men): yeah, the team was the finalist in the last world cup, but that performance will be very hard to repeat and competition will be harder. I don´t see it happening. Rugby (men): not a medal favourite, but definitely a team that can be in the final 8. And if on the other side there´s no Fiji, then there´s a chance. Swimming (1500m women´s freestyle): if Pignatiello somehow peaks and throws a PB, it´s a slow race and one of Ledecky/Quadarella/Wang/Li/Kohler gets ill or something, then maybe... But won´t happen. Taekwondo (men´s 58 Kg): a later addition after posting, Guzmán won bronze in the last world championship, but no idea about his form now. Tennis: if the tournaments have random results, who knows, especially in doubles. Maybe Zeballos/Gonzalez (men) or Zeballos/Podoroska (mixed) can make some noise. The rest I don´t know (men´s volleyball?) or it´s too random (shooting?) or just won´t happen. I think one of them having an off day wouldn’t be enough. At least 3 of them would need to have an off day (if you consider them better than Pignatiello on a normal day). Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicsFan 791 Posted April 13, 2021 #110 Share Posted April 13, 2021 10 hours ago, intoronto said: There is two medals after too lol.... Yes and McKeown is a lock for another one, so there is only 1 medal left for the 2nd American, Atherton, the two Canadians and Panziera. Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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