Boxing Olympic Rankings Road to Paris 2024

[Ogreman 209]

So I decided to try and figure out who would be the likely qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments and well many many hours, lots of procrastinating and a contender for the ugliest excel file ever created later I ended up ranking every boxer who competed at the continental qualifying tournaments and doing well some other stuff too.

 

Obviously these are just my rankings and well I will fully admit aren't especially accurate even if I did spend a significant amount of time thinking about every position but they should at least be the most accurate boxing rankings out there.

 

Just quickly in terms of boxing rankings that already exist the IBA have a ranking which is based on points system based on how far you get into their competitions. Even in a normal cycle where everyone was competing in the IBA's competitions they would still be woefully inaccurate because of the way they are calculated. They are also self perpetuating given that these rankings determine seedings which then effect how far into competitions boxers get. Anyway they are completely useless.

 

Then boxrec has a ranking system which is accurate enough and as I understand based on the quality of your opponents you beat/ lose to. It does fall into weird pitfalls  where sometimes it overrates/ underrates one group of boxers and then when they keep beating/ losing to eachother and it gets stuck in a cycle and ends up with some weird rankings as a result. Also if you keep losing to good boxers without fighting bad ones or only beat bad boxers without ever fighting good ones it can end up with weird rankings. Finally while boxrec results database is very good it is still missing a lot of competitions particularly outside of Europe.

 

And then finally Taylor O'Higgins (worth a follow on twitter) used to do an amateur boxing rankings on the Fight site and he is a boxing coach so obviously knows a lot more about the actual boxing side of things than I would. He has mentioned doing the rankings again a couple of times on twitter but as far as I know hasn't posted them.

 

So ye hopefully these fill a bit of a hole and help with some of the qualifying/ medal projections on this site where some of the boxing related projections have been a bit hit and miss.

 

I'll only post the top 50 boxers in each weightclass and the top 60 or so in my country rankings but I have linked an Excel file with the complete rankings of every weight class and ranked every country plus the same stuff but broken down by continental if anyone wants to look at them.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RN05tE5ipfkwHf_7c4vNLpV89zaHfMWw/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113545580127855067750&rtpof=true&sd=true

 

(To be clear this is not the ugly Excel file I referred to earlier)

Edited January 3 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 209]

Right so here goes, W54kg was by far the trickiest weight to rank by a mile, lots of good but no great boxers.

Index

• Example : Qualified boxer.
• Example : Projected qualifier at the 2 world qualifying tournements.
• First underline : Number of qualifiers in a given weightclass.
• Second underline :Threshold for realistic qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments.  
• >/<  Boxer could/ should be ranked higher (>) or lower (<) than they are.
• ?     Boxer may be replaced for the world qualifying tournaments/ may not be their country's best boxer.
• ??    Boxer didn't compete at continental qualifiers for reasons I am unaware of.
• (F)/ (L) - This is just a note that Tugsjargal Nomin-Erdene and Monkhor Namuun seemingly have swapped weightclasses as they both competed in differetn weight classes from where they commpeted at Asian Games at the Koln boxing cup. 
• These rankings include every boxer that competed at any of the continental Olympic qualifying tournaments.
• I've listed the Russian and Belarussian world championships squads here under the rankings and an approximate ranking for them. The majority of these boxers as I understand are affiliated with their respective militaries and will not be eligible to qualify for the Olympics.
• I've also added an approximate ranking for boxers who missed their continental qualifiers or are clearly more talented than the boxer that competed for their country at the continental qualifying tournaments and who would be in with a chance of qualifying for the Olympics. This could have been a more extensive list and I would expect lots of countries to tinker with their squads for the world qualifyiers but for simplicity I opted to restrict them to only clear cut cases

	W50kg (Flyweight)		W54kg (Bantamweight)		W57kg (Featherweight)		W60kg (Lightweight)
1	Buse Naz Cakiroglu (TUR)		Pang Chol-mi (PRK)		Lin Yu-ting (TPE)		Kellie Harrington (IRL)
2	Nikhat Zareen (IND)		Stanimira Petrova (BUL)		Irma Testa (ITA)		Beatriz Ferreira (BRA)
3	Wu Yu (CHN)		Huang Hsiao-wen (TPE)		Karina Ibragimova (KAZ)		Yang Wenlu (CHN)
4	Chuthamat Raksat (THA)		Jutamas Jitpong (THA)		Michaela Walsh (IRL)		Angie Paola Valdes (COL)
5	Thi Tham Nguyen (VIE) <		Yuan Chang (CHN)		Svetlana Staneva (BUL)		Won Ung-yong (PRK)
6	Ingrit Valencia Victoria (COL)<		Charley Sian Taylor Davison (GBR)		Nesthy Petecio (PHI)		Estelle Mossely (FRA)
7	Giordana Sorrentino (ITA)		Nigina Uktamova (UZB)		Amina Zidani (FRA)		Natalia Shadrina (SRB)
8	Wassila Lkhadiri (FRA)		Preeti (IND)		Jucielen Romeu (BRA)		Shona Whitwell (GBR)
9	Tsukimi Namiki (JAP)		Anastasia Kovalchuk (UKR)		Parveen Hooda (IND) >		Oh Yeonji (KOR)
10	Daina Moorehouse (IRL) >		Lacramioara Perijoc (ROU)		Jennifer Fernandez (ESP)		Rimma Volossenko (KAZ)
11	Caroline de Almeida (BRA) >		Hatice Akbas (TUR)		Valeria Arboleda (COL)		Agnes Alexiusson (SWE)
12	Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ)		Jennifer Lehane (IRL)		Omailyn Alcala (VEN)		Donjeta Sadiku (KOS)
13	Tetyana Kob (UKR)		Zhaina Shekerbekova (KAZ) >		Elise Glynn (GBR)		Wu Shih-yi (TPE)
14	Roumaysa Boualam (ALG)		Yeni Arias (COL) >		Monkhor Namuun (MGL) < (L?)		Nomin-Erdene Tugsjargal (MGL) (F?)
15	Pihla Kaivo-oja (FIN) <		Sirine Charaabi (ITA)		Julia Szeremeta (POL)		Jajaira Gonzalez (USA)
16	Laura Fuertes (ESP)		Sandra Drabik (POL) >		Xu Zichun (CHN)		Lenka Bernardova (CZE)
17	Yesugen Oyuntsetseg (MGL) >		Rinka Kinoshita (JAP)		Asleyann Lozada (PUR)		Cynthia Ogunsemilore (NGR)
18	Natalia Rok (POL)		Johana Gomez (VEN)		Khouloud Hlimi (TUN) >		Krisandy Rios (VEN)
19	Sabina Bobokulova (UZB)		Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (MGL)		Vilma Viitanen (FIN) <		Alessia Mesiano (ITA) ?
20	Zlatislava Chukanova (BUL)		Sara Cirkovic (SRB)		Claudia Nechita (ROU)		Elida Kocharyan (ARM)
21	Aldana Florencia Lopez (ARG)		Scarlett Delgado (CAN)		Melissa Mortensen (DEN)		Thananya Somnuek (THA)
22	Monique Suraci (AUS)		Bojana Gojkovic (MNE)		Marianna Basanets (UKR)		Jaismine (IND)
23	Aira Villegas (PHI)		Yoseline Perez (USA)  ?		Mijgona Samadova (TJK)		Miroslava Jedinakova (SVK)
24	Nina Radovanovic (SRB)		Delphine Mancini (FRA)		Asya Ari (GER)		Sara Beram (CRO)
25	Maxi Klotzer (GER)		Sofia Robles (ARG)		Satsuki Yoshizawa (JAP) >		Hadjila Khelif (ALG)
26	Demie-Jade Resztan (GBR) > ?		Nikolina Cacic (CRO)		Marie Al-Ahmadieh (CAN)		Ayaka Taguchi (JAP)
27	Yasmine Moutaqui (MOR)		Mary Romero (ESP)		Alyssa Mendoza (USA) ?		Camila Pineiro (URU)
28	Anush Grigoryan (ARM)		Ekaterina Sycheva (ARM)		Aysen Taskin (TUR)		Chelsey Heijnen (NED)
29	Ingrid Gomez (MEX)		Widad Bertal (MOR)		Paek Jin-hyang (PRK)		Gizem Ozer (TUR)
30	Bak Cho-rong (KOR)		Tatiana de Jesus (BRA)		Sitora Turdibekova (UZB)		Raykhona Kodirova (UZB)
31	Jennifer Lozano (USA)		Estefani Almanzar (DOM)		Tina Rahimi (AUS)		Anna Jenni (SWI)
32	Susan Aguas (ECU)		Sara Haghighat-Joo (SLE)		Olga Papadatou (GRE)		(Rizwa Pasuit (PHI))
33	Tayonis Cedeno (VEN)		Antonia Giannakopoulou (GRE)		Porntip Buapa (THA)		Hanna Okhrei (UKR)
34	Kang Su-hyang (PRK) <		Zehra Milli (SWE)		Mahsati Hamzayeva (AZE)		Tyla McDonald (AUS)
35	Sofie Vinther Rosshaug (DEN)		Im Aeji (KOR)		Lucie Sedlackova (CZE)		Sandra Kruk (POL)
36	Thandolwethu Mathiba (RSA) <		Zeynab Rahimova (AZE)		Legnis Cala (CUB)		Maria Palacios (ECU)
37	Mckenzie Wright (CAN)		Irish Magno (PHI)		Ana Milisic (SWI)		Felistars Nkandu (ZAM)
38	Tasmyn Benny (NZL)		Ana khunjua (GEO)		Andjela Brankovic (SRB)		Esmeralda Falcon (MEX)
39	Rita Soares (POR)		Emma Jokiaho (FIN)		Marcelat Sakobi (COD)		Loredana Marin (ROU)
40	Nicole Durikova (SVK)		Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen (VIE)		Daisy Bamberger (PER)		Erin Walsh (NZL)
41	Wafa Hafsi (TUN)		Mayssen Lambot (BEL)		Keamogetse Kenosi (BOT)		Ana Starovoitova  (LTU)
42	Aylin Jamez (GUA)		Hanna Lakotar (HUN)		Milagros Herrera (ARG)		Nisrine Amine (MOR)
43	Valeria Cardenas (CRC)		Claudia Totova (CZE)		Joy Ojo Nene (NGR) >		Victoria Saputo (ARG)
44	Danisha Mathialagan (SGP)		Denisse Bravo (CHI)		Jennifer Peters (NZL)		Teresa Makinen (FIN)
45	Benedicte Diyoka (COD)		Tiana Echegaray (AUS)		Chandrakala Thapa (NEP)		Islem Ferchichi (TUN)
46	Yuliett Hinestroza (PAN)		Iulia Coroli (MDA)		Tatevik Khachatryan (ARM)		Naomie Yumba (COD)
47	Adeola Oyesiji (NGR)		Yomna Ayyad (EGY)		Leilany Reyes (GUA)		Aslahan Mehmedova  (BUL) >
48	Christine Ongare (KEN) >		Gloria Fernandez (MEX)		Laela El Ksiri (MOR)		Lena Buchner (GER)
49	Petra Mezei (HUN)		Fatma Abdelkader (ALG)		Miguelina Hernandez (DOM)		Mariam Sidibe (CIV) >
50	Gracemarie Quiles Marti (PUR)		Helen Sanchez (ECU)		Jennifer Carillo (MEX) < ?		Huswatun Hasanah (INA)

	Ekatarina Paltseva Kuts (RUS) (15)		Karina Tazabekova (RUS) (17)		Liudmila Vorontsova (RUS) (8)		Nadezhda Golubeva (RUS) (12)
	Yana Byrum (BLR) (30)						Ala Ivashkevich (BLR) (35)

Edited January 5 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 209]

	W66kg (Welterweight)		W75kg (Middleweight)		M51kg (Flyweight)
1	Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR)		Tamarra Thibeault (CAN)		Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB)
2	Amy Broadhurst (IRL) ?		Qian Li (CHN)		Saken Bibbosinov (KAZ)
3	Imane Khelif (ALG)		Lovlina Borgohain (IND) <		Billal Bennama (FRA)
4	Yang Liu (CHN)		Aoife O'Rourke (IRL)		Roscoe Hill (USA) <
5	Morelle McCane (USA)		Caitlin Parker (AUS)		Tomoya Tsuboi (JAP)
6	Janjaem Suwannepheng (THA)		Cindy Ngamba (EOR) (REF)		Deepak Bhoria (IND)
7	Rosie Eccles (GBR)		Atheyna Bylon (PAN)		Samet Gumus (TUR)
8	Charlie Cavanagh (CAN) ?		Davina Michel (FRA)		Martin Molina (ESP)
9	Alcinda Panguane (MOZ)		Elzbieta Wojcik (POL)		Thitisan Panmot (THA)
10	Barbara dos Santos (BRA)		Citlalli Ortiz (MEX) <		Yuberjen Martinez (COL) <
11	Chen Nien-chen (TPE)		Naomi Graham (USA)		Kiaran McDonald (GBR)
12	Camila Camilo (COL)		Busra Isildar (TUR)		Federico Serra (ITA)
13	Aneta Rygielska (POL)		Khadija El-Mardi (MOR)		Patrick Chinyemba (ZAM) >
14	Oshin Derieuw (BEL) <		Ani Hovsepyan (ARM) <<		Po Wei Tu (TPE)
15	Stefanie von Berge (GER)		Rady Gamane (MOZ)		Alejandro Claro Fiz (CUB)
16	Lucia Noelia Perez (ARG)		Sunniva Hofstad (NOR)		Aaron Jude Bado (PHI)
17	Stephanie Pineiro (PUR)		Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) <		Daniel Asenov (BUL)
18	Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB)		Kerry Davis (GBR)		Attila Bernath (HUN)
19	Emilie Sonvico (FRA)		Baison Manikon (THA)		Dmytro Zamotayev (UKR)
20	Milena Matovic  (SRB)		Love Holgersson (SWE) >		So Chonryong (PRK)
21	Luca Hamori (HUN)		Anastasia Chernokolenko (UKR)		Sakhil Alakhverdovi (GEO)
22	Marissa Williamson (AUS)		Gabriele Stonkute (LTU) >		Jiamao Zhang (CHN)
23	Maria Moronta (DOM) >		Melissa Gemini (ITA)		Yunior Alcantara Reyes (DOM)
24	Assunta Canfora (ITA)		Maryelis Yriza (VEN)		Salah Ibrahim (GER)
25	Madeleine Angelsen (NOR)		Patricia Mbata (NGR)		Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (ARG)
26	Luna Beeloo (NED)		Deanne Read (NZL)		Rudolf Garboyan (ARM)
27	Arundhati Choudhary (IND)		Jessica Triebelova (SVK)		Azat Makhmetov (BHR)
28	Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV) >		Vivianne Pereira (BRA)		Masud Yusifzada (AZE)
29	Oumayma Bel Ahbib (MOR)		Irina Schonberger (GER)		Sean Mari (IRL)
30	Maria Bova (UKR) ?		Eseta Flint (TGA)		Ala Eddine Zidi (TUN)
31	Natalya Bogdanova (KAZ) ?		Nikolina Gajic (SRB)		Luis Delgado (ECU)
32	Beatrise Rozentale (LAT)		Monika Langerova (CZE)		Michael de Trindade (BRA)
33	Shoira Zulkaynarova (TJK)		Elizabeth Andiego (KEN)		Unabold Orkhontungalag (MGL) ?
34	Cara Wharerau (NZL)		Aziza Zokirova (UZB)		Nurzhigit Diushebaev (KGZ)
35	Hwang Hyo-sun (PRK)		Timea Nagy (HUN)		Jo Se-Hyeong (KOR)
36	Yuliannys Alvarez (VEN)		Enkhbaatar Erdenetuya (MGL)		Said Mortaji (MOR)
37	Tsetsegdari Myargmarsuren (MGL)		Lorena Balbuena (ARG)		Omer Ametovic (SRB) >
38	Shahla Allahverdiyeva (AZE)		Seong Su-yeon (KOR)		Yusuf Chothia (AUS)
39	Austeja Auciute (LTU)		Vasiliki Stavridou (GRE)		Mohamed Moziane (ALG)
40	Seon Su-jin (KOR)		Luisa Vasquez (COL)		Keymberth Gonzalez (ECU)
41	Brigitte Mbabi (COD)		Aynur Rzayeva (AZE)		Theophilus Allotey (GHA)
42	Paraskevi Mavrommati (GRE)		Marie-Joelle Mwika (COD)		Sinovuyo Mtintelwa (RSA)
43	Mireille Biindzi (CAM) >		Molka Ben Mabrouk (TUN)		Jakub Slominski (POL)
44	Sona Harutyunyan (ARM)		Ingrith Maldonado (ECU)		David Karanja Macharia (KEN)
45	Friza Asikoh (KEN)		Diem Quynh Luu (VIE)		Oscar Castaneda (MEX)
46	Mai Kito (JAP)		Yakelin Estornell (CUB)		Mohamed Otukile (BOT)
47	Francinah Kasemang (BOT)		Milena Jimenez (DOM)		David Alaverdian (ISR)
48	Marketa Tojnarova (CZE)		Kimberly Gittens (BAR)		Abdallah Mohamed Abdallah (TAN)
49	Olawunmi Shodipe (NGR)		Saraswati Rana (NEP)		Trofimus Johannes (NAM)
50	Sedja Sanogo (CIV)		Ornella Sathoud (GHA)		Yassine Nordine Issufo (MOZ) >
	Azalia Amineva (RUS) (10)		Anastasia Shamonova (RUS) (14)		Vasiliy Egorov (RUS) (7)
	Aryna Danilchyk (BLR) (42)		Alina Veber (BLR)  (27)
	Sara Kali (CAN) (29)

Edited January 3 by Ogreman

[Josh 6,186]

@Ogreman where would Sara Kali be in the women’s 66kg rankings? She actually won the Canadian Boxing Trials for the first World Qualifier, although if she can’t book her ticket there, Cavanaugh will have another chance in a head-to-head battle for a spot at the second World Qualifier. 

Edited January 3 by Josh

[Ogreman 209]

	M57kg (Featherweight)		M63.5kg (Light-Welterweight)		M71kg (Light-Middleweight)
1	Abdumalik Khalokov (UZB)		Sofiane Oumiha (FRA)		Yurii Zakharieiev (UKR) <
2	Javier Ibanez Diaz (BUL)		Chinzorig Baatarsukh (MGL)		Aslanbek Shymbergenov (KAZ) <
3	Jahmal Harvey (USA)		Ruslan Abdullaev (UZB)		Marco Verde (MEX)
4	Makhmud Sabyrkhan (KAZ)		Lasha Guruli (GEO)		Nikolai Terteryan (DEN)
5	Luiz Oliveira (BRA)		Bunjong Sinsiri (THA)		Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (UZB)
6	Carlo Paalam (PHI)		Alexy de la Cruz (DOM)		Tugrulhan Erdemir (TUR)
7	Yilmar Gonzalez (COL)		Radoslav Rosenov (BUL)		Omari Jones (USA)
8	Saidel Horta (CUB)		Jose Viafara (COL)		Nishant Dev (IND)
9	Artur Bazeyan (ARM)		Bakhodur Usmonov (TJK)		Vakhid Abbasov (SRB)
10	Rujakron Juntrong (THA)		Harry Garside (AUS)		Makan Vie Traore (FRA)
11	Jude Gallagher (IRL)		Emilio Garcia (USA)		Sewon Okazawa (JAP)
12	Jose Quiles (ESP)		Dean Clancy (IRL)		Zeyad Eashash (JOR)
13	Muhammed Abu Jajeh (JOR)		Jesus Cova (VEN)		Magomed Schachidov (GER)
14	Umid Rustamov (AZE)		Wyatt Sanford (CAN)		Wanderson de Oliveira (BRA)
15	Daniyal Shahbaksh (IRN)		Lazaro Alvarez (CUB) ?		Damian Durkacz (POL)
16	Vasile Ustoroi (BEL)		Reese Lynch (GBR)		Jorge Cuellar (CUB)
17	Sachin Siwach (IND) ?		Viliam Tanko (SVK)		Jose Rodriguez (ECU)
18	Artyush Gomstyan (GEO) <		Miguel Ramirez (MEX)		Sarkhan Aliyev (AZE) <
19	Jaroslaw Iwanow (POL) <		Yaroslav Khartysz (UKR)  < ?		Harris Akbar (GBR) ?
20	Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ)		Malik Hasanov (AZE)		Rami Kiwan (BUL)
21	Jose de los Santos (DOM)		Gianluigi Malanga (ITA)		Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (TKM)
22	Asror Vokhidov (TJK)		Jugurtha Ait Bekka (ALG)		Steve Kulenguluka Mbiya  (COD)
23	Yoel Finol (VEN)		Louis Richarno Colin (MRI)		Angel Llanos (PUR)
24	Frederick Lundgaard Jensen (DEN) <		Richard Kovacs (HUN)		Tuguldur Byambatsogt (MGL) >
25	Murat Yildirim (GER)		Narek Hovhannisyan (ARM)		Eskerkhan Madiev (GEO)
26	Nebil Ibrahim (SWE)		Lai Chu-en (TPE)		Dean Walsh (IRL)
27	Shudai Harada (JAP)		Bilge Kagan Kanli  (TUR) ?		Tiago Muxanga (MOZ)
28	Roland Veres (HUN)		Andrew Chilata (ZAM)		Junior Petanqui (CAN)
29	Dolapo Omole (NGR)		Yuri Falcao dos Reis (BRA)		Alban Beqiri (ALB)
30	Batuhan Ciftci (TUR)		Abdelhaq Nadir (MOR)		Jhonathan Arboleda (COL)
31	Jean Caicedo (ECU)		Jospeh Commey (GHA)		Christiann Palacio (VEN)
32	Ping Lyu (CHN)		Assan Hansen (GER)		Bruno Fernandes de Barros (CPV)
33	Lucas Fernandez (URU)		Fiston Mbaya (COD)		Youba Sissokho (ESP)
34	Miguel Vega (MEX)		Khursand Imankuliyev (TKM)		Peerapat Yeasungnoen (THA)
35	Michele Baldassi (ITA) ?		Adrian Thiam (ESP)		Davron Bozorov (MDA)
36	Jack Dryden (GBR) ?		Aleksej Sendrik (SRB)		Kan Chia-wei (TPE)
37	Fikremariyam Leta (ETH)		Alexandru Paraschiv (MDA)		Stephen Zimba (ZAM)
38	Lundaa Gantumur (MGL) ?		Yertugen Zeinnullinov (KAZ) ?		Merven Clair (MRI)
39	Taras Bondarchuk (UKR)		Chol Man Choe (PRK)		Wang Peicheng (CHN)
40	Alen Rustemovski (MKD)		Shiva Thapa (IND)		Shannan Davey (AUS)
41	O Tae Bom (PRK)		Arsen Chabyan (AUT)		Nuradin Rustambek Uulu (KGZ)
42	Armando Sigauque (MOZ)		Bartlomiej Roskowicz (POL)		Ryang Jang-thae (PRK)
43	Van Duong Nguyen (VIE)		Obada Al Kasbeh (JOR)		Omar Elawady (EGY)
44	Soulaimane Samghouli (MOR)		Ahmad Shtiwi (ISR)		Miroslav Kapuler Ischenko (ISR)
45	Abdul Wahib Omar (GHA) ?		Josh Tukamuhebwa (UGA)		Marjon Pianar (PHI)
46	Matvejs Prokudins (LAT)		Ali Qasim Hamdan Al-Sarray (IRQ)		Arena Pakela (LES)
47	Charlie Senior (AUS)		Askat Kultaev (KGZ)		Nidal Foqahaa (PLE)
48	Riad Labidi (FRA) ?		Petr Novak (CZE)		Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA)
49	Alain Christian Sangue (CMR)		Alseny Sylla (GUI)		Hamza Ghazouani (TUN)
50	Samuel Wairimu (KEN)		Samuel Contreras (ESA)		Albert Mengue Ayissi ((CMR)
	Mohamed Hussamudin (IND) (12)		Erislandy Alvarez  (CUB) (3-5)		Igro Sviridchenkov (RUS) (14)
	Eduard Savvin (RUS) (15)		Gabil Mamedov  (RUS) (10)		Aliaksandr Radzionau (BLR) (29)
	Samuel Kistohurry (FRA) (28)		Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbayuly (KAZ) (11)
			(Manny Pacquaio (PHI))

[Ogreman 209]

	M80kg (Light-Heavyweight)		M92kg (Heavyweight)		M92+kg (Super-Heavyweight)
1	Oleksandr Khyzhniak (UKR)		Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (ITA)		Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB)
2	Turabek Khabibullaev (UZB)		Jack Marley (IRL)		Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ)
3	Tuohetaerbieke Tanglatihan (CHN)		Keno Machado (BRA)		Nelvie Tiafack (GER)
4	Arlen Lopez (CUB)		Lazizbek Mullojonov (UZB)		Joshua Edwards (USA)
5	Eumir Marcial (PHI)		Julio Cesar La Cruz (CUB)		Delicious Orie (GBR)
6	Nurbek Oralbay (KAZ)		Enmanuel Reyes (ESP)		Marko Milun (CRO) <
7	Kelyn Cassidy (IRL)		Narek Manasyan (ARM)		Mahammad Abdullayev (AZE)
8	Wanderley Pereira (BRA)		Julio Castillo (ECU)		Nikoloz Begadze (GEO)
9	Taylor Bevan (GBR)		Loren Alfonso Dominguez (AZE)		Abner Teixeira (BRA) >
10	Christian Pinales (DOM)		Jamar Talley (USA)		Teremoana Teremoana Jnr (AUS)
11	Robby Gonzales (USA)		Berat Acar (TUR)		Fernando Arzola (CUB)
12	Georgi Kushitashvili (GEO)		Marlon Hurtado (COL)		Ayoub Ghadfa (ESP)
13	Hussein Iashaish (JOR)		Davlat Boltaev (TJK)		Danabieke Bayikewuzi (CHN)
14	Gabrijel Veocic (CRO)		Sagyndyk Togambay (KAZ) ?		Davit Chaloyan (ARM)
15	Murad Allahverdiyev (AZE)		Rogelio Romero (MEX)		Djamili Aboudou Moindze (FRA) >
16	Weerapon Jongjoho (THA)		Lewis Williams (GBR)		Christian Salcedo (COL)
17	Mindaugas Gediminas (NOR)		Soheb Bouafia (FRA)		Yousry Hafez (EGY)
18	Pylyp Akilov (HUN)		Ato Plodzicki-Faoagali (SAM)		Yordan Hernandez (BUL)
19	Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA)		Sanjeet Kumar (IND)		Danis Latypov (BHR)
20	Gazimagomed Jalidov (ESP)		Vagkan Nanitzanian (GRE)		Mourad Kadi (ALG)
21	Andrei Arodoaie (ROU)		Alexander Okafor (GER)		Omar Shiha (NOR)
22	Kevin Schumann (GER)		Arkadii Kartsan (UKR)		Dmytro Lovchynski (UKR) >
23	Vladimir Mironchikov (SRB)		Toufan Sharifi (IRN)		Vladan Babic (SRB)
24	Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (KGZ)		Han Xuezhen (CHN)>		Diego Lenzi (ITA)
25	Jhojan Caicedo (COL)		Marko Calic (CRO)		Amato Mataika (TGA)
26	Abraham Buonnarigo (ARG)		Adrian Paoletti (AUS)		Nigel Paul (TTO) <
27	Hambardzum Hakobyan (ARM)		Adam Olaitan Olaore (NGR) <		Diarga Balde (SEN)
28	Keven Beausejour (CAN)		Artyom Yordanyan (GEO)		Narendar Berwal (IND)
29	Ahmad Ghossoun (SYR)		Mohamed Houmri (ALG) <		Gerlon Congo (ECU)
30	Abdelrahman Oraby (EGY)		Mateusz Bereznicki (POL)		Zacharie Serge Mvogo Amougou (CMR)
31	Mathieu Bauderlique (FRA)		Erkin Adylbek Uulu (KGZ)		Alexei Zavatin (MDA)
32	Gradus Kraus (NED) ?		Yan Zak (ISR) <		Keddy Agnes (SEY)
33	Kim Jin-jea (KOR)		Albino Julio Gabriel (MOZ)		Byeknur Khali (MGL)
34	Gebhard Ipinge (NAM)		Gelian Rojku (ALB)		Elijah Mercury-Leafa (SAM)
35	Lakshya Chahar (IND)		Daniel Guzman (DOM)		Stan Bertens (NED)
36	Nikita Nystedt (FIN)		Levente Kiss (HUN)		Jonas Jazevicius (LTU)
37	Peter Pita Kabeji (COD)		Odai Al-Hindawi (JOR)		Miguel Veliz (CHI)
38	Callum Peters (AUS)		Karamba Kebe (SEN)		Partick Mailata (NZL)
39	Ganzorig Dalai (MGL)		Jeong Jae-min (KOR)		Jerome Feujio (CAN)
40	Kristyan Nikolov (BUL)		David Michalek (SVK)		Davilson dos Santos Morais (CPV) <
41	Kaan Aykutsun (TUR)		Andrews Salgado (CHI)		Oomatbek Elchoro Uulu (KGZ)
42	Shabbos Negmatulloev (TJK)		Ayoub Maanni (MOR) <		Stylianos Roulias (GRE)
43	Michail Tsamalidis (GRE)		Malcolm Matthes (NZL)		Iman Ramezanpour (IRN)
44	Anauel Ngamissengue (CGO)		Peter Alwanga (KEN) <		Javier Cruz (MEX)
45	Arjen Iseni (MKD)		Andrei Zaplitnii (MDA)		Muhammad Abroridinov (TJK)
46	Julio Alamos (CHI)		Maroy Sadiki (COD)		Ugur Aydemir (TUR)
47	Stiven Aas (EST)		Dorjiin Bariakhaan (MGL)		Mohamed Firisse (MOR)
48	Mohamed Assaghir (MOR)		Johnathan Tetteh (GHA) >		Martin Pinc (CZE)
49	Yusuf Changalawe (TAN)		Dzemel Bosnjak (BIH)		Jure Simunovic (SLO)
50	Seyidshahin Mousavi (IRN)		Hazem Nader Kandil (EGY)		Radoslaw Kawczak (POL)
	Imam Khataev (RUS) (2)		Muslim Gadzhimagomedov (RUS)  (2)		Aleksey Dronov (RUS) (4)
	Aleksei Alfiorau (BEL) (3)		Aybek Oralbay (KAZ) (11)		Ahmed Hagag (AUT) ?? (15-20)
	Andrej Csemez (SVK) ?? (21)		Uladzislau Smiahlikau (BLR) (17)		Martin Mcdonagh (IRL) (28-32)

[Ogreman 209]

	Country	Total Ranking points	Women's ranking points (Ranking)	Men's rankings points (Ranking)	Boxers (W,M)	Projected Qualifiers (Qualified)	Realistic qualification ceiling	Projected Olympic medallists	Olympic Medal ceiling
1	Uzbekistan	623	131 (19)	492 (1)	13 (6,7)	8 (4)	10	6	8
2	Kazakhstan	593	219 (10)	374 (2)	13 (6,7)	9 (2)	11	5	6
3	Ireland	583	355 (2)	228 (10)	12 (6,6)	10 (5)	11	5	6
4	USA	540	172 (14)	368 (3)	13 (6,7)	11 (5)	13	3	5
5	China	516	357 (1)	159 (21)	13 (6,7)	9 (7)	10	5	6
6	France	505	245 (5)	260 (6)	13 (6,7)	8 (7)	11	2	6
7	Brazil	504	228 (9)	276 (5)	13 (6,7)	11 (9)	11	2	6
8	Colombia	471	234 (6)	237 (8)	13 (6,7)	9 (3)	10	1	4
9	Great Britain	465	231 (8)	234 (9)	13 (6,7)	7 (3)	11	0	4
10	India	448	267 (3)	181 (18)	13 (6,7)	6 (4)	9	2	6
11	Turkey	436	256 (4)	180 (20)	13 (6,7)	8 (6)	8	2	4
12	Thailand	419	233 (7)	186 (16)	11 (6,5)	7 (4)	9	2	4
13	Italy	400	213 (12)	187 (15)	13 (6,7)	6 (4)	8	2	3
14	Ukraine	384	140 (18)	244 (7)	13 (6,7)	4 (1)	10	2	3
15	Bulgaria	358	155 (17)	203 (14)	10 (4,6)	4 (3)	8	2	4
16	Cuba	313	11 (68)	302 (4)	10 (3,7)	5 (3)	7	1	3
17	Spain	302	86 (27)	216 (13)	10 (3,7)	6 (2)	7	0	1
18	Chinese Taipei	280	219 (10)	61 (40)	8 (4,4)	6 (4)	7	2	2
19	Armenia	266	85 (28)	181 (18)	13 (6,7)	4 (0)	7	0	2
20	Germany	263	79 (33)	184 (17)	12 (5,7)	3 (0)	9	1	1
21	Mongolia	254	131 (19)	123 (27)	13 (6,7)	4 (2)	6	1	1
21	Poland	254	174 (13)	80 (35)	13 (6,7)	6 (0)	7	0	0
23	Azerbaijan	250	29 (55)	221 (12)	12 (5,7)	3 (2)	6	0	1
24	Canada	247	170 (15)	77 (36)	13 (6,7)	3 (2)	6	1	1
25	Australia	245	119 (24)	126 (25)	13 (6,7)	12 (12)	12	0	1
26	Philippines	243	90 (26)	153 (22)	10 (4,6)	3 (1)	5	0	3
27	Georgia	230	7 (77)	223 (11)	8 (1,7)	3 (1)	6	1	2
28	Serbia	225	128 (21)	97 (32)	11 (6,5)	2 (2)	6	0	0
29	Japan	224	106 (25)	118 (28)	10 (5,5)	5 (2)	7	0	2
30	Mexico	208	68 (37)	140 (24)	11 (5,6)	3 (2)	4	1	1
31	North Korea	202	165 (16)	37 (52)	9 (5,4)	2 (2)	3	1	2
32	Algeria	193	120 (23)	73 (37)	12 (5,7)	5 (5)	5	1	1
33	Dominican Republic	189	38 (46)	151 (23)	13 (6,7)	3 (1)	5	0	2
34	Venezuela	184	121 (22)	63 (39)	9 (6,3)	2 (1)	5	0	0
35	Tajikistan	148	34 (52)	114 (30)	12 (5,7)	3 (2)	4	0	1
36	Croatia	143	33 (53)	110 (31)	8 (3,5)	2 (1)	3	0	1
37	Ecuador	140	23 (59)	117 (29)	11 (4,7)	3 (2)	4	0	0
38	Hungary	129	36 (51)	93 (33)	11 (4,7)	2 (2)	5	0	0
39	Jordan	127	3 (90)	124 (26)	8 (2,6)	1 (0)	3	0	0
40	Morocco	123	81 (31)	42 (46)	13 (6,7)	3 (3)	3	0	0
40	Mozambique	123	85 (28)	38 (48)	10 (5,5)	2 (1)	3	0	0
40	Argentina	123	82 (30)	41 (47)	10 (6,4)	1 (0)	4	0	0
43	South Korea	117	80 (32)	37 (52)	13 (6,7)	1 (0)	1	0	0
44	Denmark	113	28 (56)	85 (34)	5 (2,3)	1 (1)	3	1	1
45	Romania	98	70 (35)	28 (62)	6 (3,3)	1 (1)	3	0	1
46	Norway	97	45 (44)	52 (44)	5 (2,3)	1 (0)	3	0	0
47	Sweden	85	70 (35)	15 (83)	4 (3,1)	2 (1)	3	0	0
48	Nigeria	84	55 (41)	29 (60)	9 (6,3)	3 (3)	3	0	0
49	Vietnam	80	71 (34)	9 (97)	8 (5,3)	1 (0)	1	0	1
50	Puerto Rico	79	57 (39)	22 (71)	6 (3,3)	2 (1)	3	0	0
51	Slovakia	76	38 (46)	38 (48)	6 (3,3)	0 (0)	2	0	0
52	Czech Republic	73	55 (41)	18 (79)	12 (6,6)	0 (0)	1	0	0
52	Finland	73	65 (38)	8 (101)	5 (4,1)	1 (0)	2	0	0
54	Zambia	71	13 (67)	58 (42)	8 (4,4)	1 (1)	1	0	0
55	Kyrgyzstan	70	0 (116)	70 (38)	7 (0,7)	0 (0)	1	0	0
56	Panama	68	57 (39)	11 (92)	5 (2,3)	1 (1)	1	0	1
57	DR Congo	67	21 (60)	46 (45)	12 (6,6)	1 (1)	2	0	0
57	Belgium	67	38 (46)	29 (60)	3 (2,1)	2 (2)	2	0	0
57	New Zealand	67	42 (45)	25 (64)	12 (6,6)	0 (0)	0	0	0
60	Egypt	66	9 (73)	57 (43)	11 (4,7)	3 (3)	4	0	0

Country	Global Ranking (points)	Women's rankings (points)	Men's rankings (points)	Boxers (W, M)	Projected Qualifiers (Qualified)	Realistic qualification ceiling	Projected medallist	Medal ceiling
Russia (WC squad)	586 (3)	220 (10)	366 (4)	13 (6,7)	12	13	3	5
Belarus (WC squad)	142 (37)	36 (52)	106 (32)	7 (4,3)	1	3	1	1

● Ranking system is a scale starting at 77 and then declining at declining intervals down to 6 points for the 40th ranked boxer in each weight class. Beyond the top 40 boxers in a weightclass the points assigned are a function of the total number of boxers in a given weightclass.

● It's a predominantly arbitrary point allocation system.

● Country rankings are a cumalative total of their respective indivual boxers ranking points. Highest possible country score is a 1000.

● Projected qualifiers refers to the number of boxers already qualified per nation plus the boxers that would fill the world qualifying tournament quota places based on my rankings. Naturally, they do not include the nine universality quota places.

● Realistic qualification ceiling is the number of boxers I perceive to be above a given threshold in every weight class below which I think a boxer would need a very lucky draw or favorable judging decisions to be in with a chance of qualifying at the world qualiying tournaments.

● Projected medallists are just the top four in every weightclass although it should be noted that these rankings are an assesment of how I would rank things now and not necessarily a projection for how I see the Olympics playing out.

● Medal ceiling is the total number of boxers who I would consider medal contenders. Medal contenders are roughly the top 8/9 ranked boxers in every weightclass but some weightclasses do differ slightly from that (High of 10, low of 6). Boxers outside this threshold will obviously win some medals at the Olympics given how volatile and unpredictable boxing can be but the vast majority of Olympic medals will be won by boxers inside these thresholds.

 

 

So I designed a ranking system outlined in part above to look at which countries had the strongest Olympic squads. This is not an assesment of the best boxing countries just how good they're Olympic squad is. Most of the results line up with what I expected but obviously there are a few strange ones.

Edited January 3 by Ogreman

[Illya 433]

Thanks for a huge job, it really simplifies future predictions.

 

Here are some insights from Ukrainian squads (not confirmed yet, but 70% possible according to the Trials-National Champs): 

49 minutes ago, Ogreman said:

Marianna Basanets (UKR)

Basanets lost at the Trials, so there can be a replacement with Anastasia Molochko (not so well-known boxer but we will see what she brings)

 

37 minutes ago, Ogreman said:

Maria Bova (UKR) ?

 

37 minutes ago, Ogreman said:

Anastasia Chernokolenko (UKR

You got it right, Bova can be replaced, and her replacement is Anastasia Chernokolenko, who left no crumbs on all of her opponents in the Ukrainian Champs including 5th place in Tokyo Lysenko and Bova herself. To my mind, Chernokolenko looks really powerful in 66, so it would be interesting. 

 

Meanwhile, Chernokolenko will be replaced in 75 by youngster Karolina Makhno, who placed fifth at the 2021 WCH

 

24 minutes ago, Ogreman said:

Taras Bondarchuk (UKR)

He is out probably, he decided to move to non-Olympic 60 and lost in the semifinals there. Our hope for this weight is another young athlete Aider Abduraimov. 

 

26 minutes ago, Ogreman said:

Yaroslav Khartysz (UKR)  < ?

It's also right, Khartsyz is likely to be replaced with Danyil Zamorylo in the first tournament, he shockingly lost to him in the final of the Ukrainian Champs

 

 

[Ogreman 209]

Finally I wanted to do a similar thing the country ranking above but for continents. Last time I brought like this up on this site I managed to start a very circular and aimless debate about the merit of continental quotas so to be clear this is much more about comparing Europe, Asia and the Americas than the merit of Oceania's quotas. Also the continental quotas were assigned based off performances in Tokyo where Russia won six medals so while Asia matches Europe in some of the men's weights points wise. It doesn't necessarily mean the quota allocations were wrong.

 

Continental Breakdown [Ranking points (Number of boxers)]	Africa	Americas	Asia	Europe	Oceania
W50kg	7 (1)	25 (2)	97 (8)	81 (9)	0 (0)
W54kg	0 (0)	10 (2)	112 (9)	88 (9)	0 (0)
W57kg	3 (1)	36 (4)	77 (6)	94 (9)	0 (0)
W60kg	4 (1)	45 (4)	72 (6)	89 (9)	0 (0)
W66kg	30 (2)	58 (6)	45 (4)	77 (8)	0 (0)
W75kg	14 (2)	55 (4)	43 (4)	82 (9)	16 (1)
Women's Continental Quotas	11	16	20	22	6
Projected Qualifing Tournaments Quotas	1	7	14	22	0
Women's Total	58 (7)	229 (22)	446 (37)	511 (53)	16 (1)
M51kg	8 (1)	34 (3)	95 (8)	73 (8)	0 (0)
M57kg	0 (0)	61 (4)	82 (8)	67 (8)	0 (0)
M63.5kg	0 (0)	62 (7)	65 (4)	72 (8)	11 (1)
M71kg	0 (0)	48 (5)	67 (5)	95 (10)	0 (0)
M80kg	0 (0)	51 (4)	81 (6)	78 (10)	0 (0)
M92kg	0 (0)	73 (6)	34 (4)	100 (9)	3 (1)
M92+kg	5 (2)	44 (4)	49 (4)	101 (9)	11 (1)
Men's Continental Quotas	7	14	14	22	7
Projected Qualifing Tournaments Quotas	0	17	17	22	0
Men's total	13 (3)	373 (33)	473 (39)	586 (62)	25 (3)
Continental Quotas	18	30	34	44	13
Projected Qualifing Tournaments Quotas	1	24	31	44	0
Total	71 (10)	602 (55)	919 (76)	1097 (115)	41 (4)

 

▪ Ranking points system used here is a linear ranking of the top 20 (20, 19, ..... , 2, 1) in each weightclass.

▪ Rankings cells show: Cumalative ranking points (Number of boxers in top 20)

[Ogreman 209]

50 minutes ago, Josh said:

@Ogreman where would Sara Kali be in the women’s 66kg rankings? She actually won the Canadian Boxing Trials for the first World Qualifier, although if she can’t book her ticket there, Cavanaugh will have another chance in a head-to-head battle for a spot at the second World Qualifier. 

I did actually see this result, It was just an error that she wasn't listed at the bottom of the rankings. I put her 29th but obviously beating Cavanagh merits putting her higher but at the same time her historic results aren't very good.

 

16 minutes ago, Illya said:

 

Here are some insights from Ukrainian squads (not confirmed yet, but 70% possible according to the Trials-National Champs): 

Thanks, Wasn't aware of any of that.