Medal Chances for each NOC at Paris 2024

[heywoodu 15,141]

45 minutes ago, FireRun said:

I don't see it. Especially as it's very likely both Roglič and Pogačar will focus on the TDF. And the rest of the team is too weak to support someone like Mohorič.

To be fair to Mohoric, he is exactly the kind of rider who barely needs support at all  

 

Most of his big wins have come without real support, but by some impressive attack or something like that. If Roglic and Pogacar ride, Slovenia definitely has three medal chances, but like I said before, there's at least 20-30 riders who definitely have a medal chance, so yeah.

[OlympicIRL 5,532]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

Agree. And Ben Healy in road cycling. 

Don’t agree with you there, Healy definitely has an outside chance.

[heywoodu 15,141]

4 minutes ago, OlympicIRL said:

Don’t agree with you there, Healy definitely has an outside chance.

Yep. Depending on who competes of course the list is....long. Roglic, Evenepoel, Pogacar, Van der Poel, Van Aert, Pedersen, Hirschi, Laporte, Madouas, Benoot, Skjelmose, Pidcock, Powless, Healy, Costa, Aranburu, Küng, G Martin, Mohoric, Lutsenko, Sivakov, Ganna, Woods, Skujins, Kron, Matthews, Alaphilippe, Lafay, Yates, Yates all would have at the very least an outside chance (some more than others, obviously, but none of these would really be surprise medalists), and that's just with taking a one minute look at the current rankings and such.

[OlympicIRL 5,532]

Just now, heywoodu said:

Yep. Depending on who competes of course the list is....long. Roglic, Evenepoel, Pogacar, Van der Poel, Van Aert, Pedersen, Hirschi, Laporte, Madouas, Benoot, Skjelmose, Pidcock, Powless, Healy, Costa, Aranburu, Küng, G Martin, Mohoric, Lutsenko, Sivakov, Ganna, Woods, Skujins, Kron, Matthews, Alaphilippe, Lafay, Yates, Yates all would have at the very least an outside chance (some more than others, obviously, but none of these would really be surprise medalists), and that's just with taking a one minute look at the current rankings and such.

Yes, there are dozens of riders with the potential to medal. Healy is certainly in the list. Given the fact there are so many in contention it’s definitely only an outside chance.

[IoNuTzZ 305]

Romania: 

 

swimming:

David Popovici - 100/200 free

 

rowing: 

W2X, W2-, W4-, W8+, LW2x (all the men’s crews have a chance too).

 

weightlifting:

Loredana Toma

Mihaela Cambei

 

artistic gymnastics:

Sabrina Voinea (floor)

 

kayac-canoe:

Catalin Chirila 

Oleg Nuta/Ilie Sprincean

 

athletics: 

Alina Rotaru

 

Boxing:

Lenuta Perijoc

Cycling (MTB):

Vlad Dascalu

Outside chance:

Wrestling: 

Andreea Ana, Kriszta Incze, Alina Vuc, Alin Alexuc (if they will qualified first)

 

Table tennis

Women’s team, Bernadette Szocs, Bernadette Szocs/Ovidiu Ionescu mixed doubles

 

Athletics:

Bianca Ghelber-Perie

Andrea Miklos (if she will improved like this year)

 

Fencing: 

Iulian Teodosiu

In 2024 we can win the most medals since Athens (only in rowing we can win at least 4-5 medals) but we will see next year what will happend.

 

[Werloc 3,164]

Realistically:

 

 

Rūta Meilutytė - 100m Breaststroke

Danas Rapšys - 200m / 400m Freestyle

Mykolas Alekna - Discus Throw

Laura Asadauskaitė - Modern Pentathlon

Dominika Banevič - Breaking

Donata Karalienė/Dovilė Rimkutė - Double Sculls

 

Could have a fighting chance:

 

Andrius Gudžius - Discus Throw

Liveta Jasiūnaitė - Javelin Throw

Edis Matusevičius - Javelin Throw

Basketball 3x3 Men & Women

Men's K2 500

Men's K4 500

Men's C2 500

Men's Pair (rowing)

Women's Pair (rowing)

Women's Single Sculls (rowing)

Ieva Serapinaitė/Gintarė Venčkauskaitė - Modern Pentathlon

Kotryna Teterevkova - 200m Breaststroke

 

Yesssss, this is the likeliest chance for Lithuania to have their best Olympics of our lifetime, but Danas Rapšys needs to not get injured, Meilutytė needs to decide if she even participates. Modern Pentathlon is unpredictable, so Alekna, Banevič and our rowing duo look likeliest for medals, because they had very good results in multiple important championships leading up to the Olympic Games.

 

We most often than not have medals in canoe sprint, so I had to put the guys there, our other rowing teams are strong enough to challenge. Basketball 3x3's won a couple of important tournaments and medalled at others, Gudžius, Jasiūnaitė and Matusevičius are a bit reliant on their competition underperforming, or them overperforming. Serapinaitė and Venčkauskaitė have a lot of credentials and have been at the top, but you never know with MP. Teterevkova showed promise with bronze at the Europeans, she started training at the US and has an amazing training partner now, so she might even improve more during the year. 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Werloc

[TeamGB 171]

Looking at everyone else's lists, my chances seem a bit too optimistic. What do you think @Grassmarket , @Rafa Maciel?

[Jinzha 702]

On 7/27/2023 at 4:10 PM, Jinzha said:

My own medal prediction for , with pessimistic and optimistic ranges:

 

Archery: 0

Athletics: 2-4 - Sifan Hassan (maybe 2x), Femke Bol and enough contenders that could medal on a good day (4x400m women, Jessica Schilder, Jorinde van Klinken, Anouk Vetter).

Beach Volleyball: 0

Breaking: 1-2 - India, Menno and Lee can all podium I believe, even if I've never watched this sport.

Cycling BMX: 0-2 - hoping for Niek Kimmann or Merel Smulders, but somehow I'm fearing an all French podium on the mens side and Smulders is not a clear favorite either.

Cycling mtb: 1 - if Puck Pieterse keeps her form into next year... what a monster!!

Cycling road: 2 - womens road race and time trial. Medals should be expected, even if Kopecky and Reusser are probably favorites for gold.

Cycling track: 2-4 - mens team sprint, Harry Lavreysen sprint and keirin, Maike van der Duijn omnium

Equestrian: 1-2 - I avoid watching animal sports, but I believe Dinja van Liere and the jumping team are medal contenders.

Field hockey: 1-2 - the women team will surely reach the final when I cheer them on live in Paris at the semifinal, not as confident about the mens team though.

Football: 0

Gymnastics: 0

Handball: 0

Judo: 0-2 - Hoping for Joanne van Lieshout, other contenders are Sanne van Dijke, Guusje Steenhuis, Michael Korrel and Jur Spijkers. Going to lose a lot of contenders to home favorites probably.

Rowing: 3-5 - w1x, w4x, w4-, m4x and m2x I believe, but we'll have to see the new boats in action some more.

Sailing: 2-4 - 49er, 49er(fx), Marit Bouwmeester and maybe whoever qualifies in mens Foil

Swimming: 1-3 - Sharon van Rouwendaal, Arno Kamminga, Marrit Steenbergen and Tes Schouten can hopefully win 3 medals between them, but I wouldn't be suprised if only we end with only a bronze instead.

Volleyball: 0

Waterpolo: 0-1 - hopefully we can hire Italy to eliminate USA for us again, grazie mille in advance!

Other sports: 0 - maybe I forgot someone, but I don't think we have any other contenders.

Surprise medals: 1-2 - the best medals are the unexpected ones!

 

Total: 17-35 - I'll be happy if it ends up in the middle with 25.

 

I'd say we can expect about 8-10 golds, potentially from: Sifan Hassan, Harry Lavreysen, Puck Pieterse, Demi Vollering/Lorena Wiebes (depending on the race), Karolien Florijn, Van Aanholt/Duetz (49erFx), Lambriex/Van Werken (49er), Marit Bouwmeester and a suprise gold (Femke Bol? Marrit Steenbergen? India Sardjoe?)

 

In an earlier thread I made this prediction, if I had to update I would downscale Breaking to 0-1 medal, switch Maike van der Duijn (omnium) for men's Madison and add maybe 1-2 more rowing medals. 

 

But for a best case prediction let's add: archery mixed team, Mathieu van der Poel (cross country or road race), rowing M1x and M8-, Sailing Nacra17 (Van der Meer/Bouwer) and a gymnastics medal (Naomi Visser, Sanna Veerman or Sanne Wevers?) For a total of 17-40 medals

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

9 hours ago, TeamGB said:

Looking at everyone else's lists, my chances seem a bit too optimistic. What do you think @Grassmarket , @Rafa Maciel?

You are definitely more optimistic than I am at the moment - both in terms of which British athletes are going to qualify for the Olympics and where we could potentially pick up medals, but I don't see  picking up medals in any team sports - and after tonight's performance, I am not even confident that GB will qualify in women's football which would be huge disappointment. 

[OlympicsFan 858]

Germany: Between 30 and 35 medals, continuation of the trend (2012: 44 medals, 2016: 42 medals, 2020: 37 medals)

 

Open water swimming: 1-2 medals

Pool swimming: 0-6 medals

Archery: 0-3 medals

Athletics: 0-6 medals

Canoeing slalom: 0-3 medals

Canoeing sprint: 2-6 medals

Track cycling: 1-6 medals

Equestrian: 2-6 medals

Field hockey: 0-2 medals

Artistic gymnastics: 0-1 medals

Rhythmic gymnastics: 0-1 medals

Judo: 0-2 medals

Modern pentathlon: 0-1 medals

Rowing: 0-2 medals

Sailing: 0-3 medals

Shooting: 0-4 medals

Surfing: 0-1 medals

Table tennis: 0-3 medals

Tennis: 0-1 medals

Triathlon: 0-2 medals

Wrestling: 0-2 medals

Edited November 3, 2023 by OlympicsFan