Medal Chances for each NOC at Paris 2024

[TeamGB 174]

How many medals do you think it is realistically possible for you to win at Paris 2024 if everything went to plan. Obviously, don't make any completely unrealistic predictions, but try to give a best case scenario.

[FireRun 192]

From the top of my head 3:

 

Garnbret -  Climbing - Gold

Čeh - Discus Throw - Gold or Silver

Savšek - Canoe - Gold or Silver or Bronze

 

 

[JoshMartini007 2,544]

Doing a quick, no deep thinking count we have realistic chances in around 75 events. With that said, the odds of everything going our way is near 0%. My expectation is around 25 medals.

[Dragon 1,846]

Absolute best possible scenario for  assuming everything goes perfectly

75-80 medals, 35 gold

Which does sound very very unlikely but all of these are at least fairly possible.

[hckošice 14,863]

Nice jinx thread

 

For it can turn in either way, a magic historic games or complete failure and fiasco...

 

So anything between zero and let say 4-5 medals is possible, let´s hope for the latter than the former though

 

for athletes who may aspire realistically to medal I do believe we can count mainly on Tajmuraz Salkazanov (If he qualify obviously, which is far from to be a safe thing...), followed by more or less similar chances to Danka Barteková, maybe the traditional Olympic medalist Zuzana Rehák-Štefečeková and with a bit smaller chances Eliška Mintálová, Matej Beňuš and who knows maybe even Jakub Grigar if he´ll find his form from last years next year

[Dragon 1,846]

5 minutes ago, hckošice said:

Nice jinx thread

 

For it can turn in either way, a magic historic games or complete failure and fiasco...

 

So anything between zero and let say 4-5 medals is possible, let´s hope for the latter than the former though

 

for athletes who may aspire realistically to medal I do believe we can count mainly on Tajmuraz Salkazanov (If he qualify obviously, which is far from to be a safe thing...), followed by more or less similar chances to Danka Barteková, maybe the traditional Olympic medalist Zuzana Rehák-Štefečeková and with a bit smaller chances Eliška Mintálová, Matej Beňuš and who knows maybe even Jakub Grigar if he´ll find his form from last years next year

We need another thread where we predict the worst possible results for our countries.

[Josh 10,595]

We have a lot of medal chances, but we’ll probably win around 25-30. That being said;

 

Athletics

Marco Arop- Men’s 800m

Mo Ahmed- Men’s 5000m/10000m

Andre DeGrasse- Men’s 100m/200m

Men’s 4x100m Relay

Pierce LePage- Men’s Decathlon

Damian Warner- Men’s Decathlon

Evan Dunfee- Men’s 20km Race Walk

Ethan Katzberg- Men’s Hammer Throw

Sarah Mitton- Women’s Shot Put

Camryn Rogers- Women’s Hammer Throw

 

Less likely are Cam Levins (men’s marathon) and our women’s 4x400m relay. 
 

Diving

Caeli McKay- Women’s 10m Platform

Mia Vallee- Women’s 3m Springboard

Pamela Ware- Women’s 3m Springboard

Pamela Ware/Mia Vallee- Women’s 3m Synchro Platform

Rylan Wiens- Men’s 10m Platform

Nathan Zsombor Murray- Men’s 10m Platform

Rylan Wiens/Nathan Zsombor Murray- Men’s 10m Synchro Platform 

 

Swimming

Summer McIntosh- Women’s 200m Freestyle (if she decides to race it), Women’s 400m Freestyle, Women’s 200m Butterfly, Women’s 200m Individual Medley, Women’s 400m Individual Medley

Maggie MacNeil- Women’s 100m Butterfly

Sydney Pickrem- Women’s 200m Individual Medley

Kylie Masse- Women’s 100m Backstroke, Women’s 200m Backstroke

Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay

Women’s 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay

Illya Kharun- Men’s 200m Butterfly

Josh Liendo- Men’s 50m Freestyle, Men’s 100m Freestyle, Men’s 100m Butterfly

 

Archery

Eric Peters- Men’s Individual

 

Basketball

Women’s Tournament

Men’s Tournament

Women’s 3x3 Tournament

 

Boxing

Charlie Cavanaugh- Women’s 66kg

Scarlett Delgado- Women’s 54kg

Wyatt Sanford- Men’s 63.5kg

Tammara Thibeault- Women’s 75kg

 

Breaking

Philip Kim- B-Boys

 

Canoeing

Katie Vincent- Women’s C1-200m

Katie Vincent/Sophia Jensen- Women’s C2-500m

 

Cycling- Track

Dylan Bibic- Men’s Omnium

Kelsey Mitchell- Women’s Sprint, Women’s Keirin

Lauriane Genest- Women’s Sprint, Women’s Keirin

Women’s Team Sprint

 

Fencing

Eleanor Harvey- Women’s Foil

Jessica Guo- Women’s Foil

Women’s Team Foil

 

Football

Women’s Tournament

 

Gymnastics

 

Not exactly sure which events but I believe Felix Dolci and Ellie Black are in contention for some individual medals. Unlikely, but we could contend for a women’s team medal as well. And of course, trampoline gymnastics. 
 

Golf

Brooke Henderson- Women’s Tournament

 

Judo

Catherine Beauchemin Pinard- Women’s 63kg

Jessica Klimkait/Christa Deguchi- Women’s 57kg

Shady El Nahas/Kyle Reyes- Men’s 100kg

Francois Gauthier Drapeau- Men’s 81kg

Arthur Margelidon- Men’s 73kg

 

Rowing

Jenny Moffat/Jill Cassons- Women’s Lightweight Double Sculls

Women’s Eight

 

Sailing

Sarah Douglas- Women’s Laser Radial

 

Surfing

Erin Brooks (if she can get her citizenship in time) - Women’s Shortboard

 

Taekwondo

Skylar Park- Women’s 57kg

 

Tennis (Canadian tennis is up and down, so I’ll just put them here if they’ve had a good run at RG in the past)

 

Felix Auger Aliassime- Men’s Singles

Leylah Fernandez- Women’s Singles

 

Gaby Dabrowski/Leylah Fernandez have only played with each other once, at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, and although it ended with a loss Fernandez is a much better doubles player now. Medal potential for sure. 
 

Beach Volleyball

Melissa Humana Parades/Brandie Wilkerson- Women’s Tournament

 

Wrestling

Madison Parks- Women’s 50kg

Karla Godinez- Women’s 53kg

Ana Godinez- Women’s 62kg

Olivia Di Bacco/Linda Morais- Women’s 68kg

Justina Di Stasio- Women’s 76kg

 

Weightlifting

Maude Charron- Women’s 59kg

Edited October 31, 2023 by Josh
Forgot Kylie Masse

[Belle 977]

Mondo and Equestrian Jumping both team and individual. 

 

Maybe Daniel Ståhl can get a medal in Discus throw. 

[TeamGB 174]

Team  

 

Aquatics

 

Diving (7-7)

Men's 3m Springboard - Olympic Bronze (2021)

Men's 10m Platform - World Champion (2017)

Men's 3m Synchro - World silver (2023)

Men's 10m Synchro - Olympic Gold (2021)
Women's 10m Platform - Qualifying score from 2023 worlds would have won bronze

Women's 3m Synchro - World Silver (2023)

Women's 10m Synchro - World Silver (2023)

 

Swimming (14-12)

Men's 50m Free - World Champion (2022)

Men's 100m Free - 0.3 off Medal (Worlds 2023)

Men's 200m Free - 2x Medal Chances. Any of Tom Dean (1st 2021), Duncan Scott (2nd 2021) or Matt Richards (1st 2023)

Men's 200m Back - World Silver (2022)
Men's 100m Breast - Olympic Gold (2021)

Men's 200m IM - 2x Medal Chances. Scott (2nd 2023), Dean (3rd 2023)
Men's 4x100m free - Would have won 2023 worlds if not for DQ

Men's 4x200m free - World Champion (2023)

Men's 4x100m Medley - World Champions (2019)

Women's 100m Back - PB Would have won Bronze in 2023

Women's 200m Fly - PB 0.04 off world's Bronze (2023)
Mixed Medley Relay - Olympic Gold (2021)

 

Archery (3-2)

Women's Individual - 2x Medal Chances - Penny Healy and Bryony Pitman - World Cup Golds (2022/2023)

Women's Team - World Cup Gold (2022)

 

Athletics (22-20)

Men's 100m - World Bronze (2023)
Men's 200m - PB would have won world Silver (2023)
Men's 400m - World Silver (2023)

Men's 800m - World Bronze (2023)

Men's 1500m - 2x Medal Chances - Jake Wightman (World Champ 2022), Josh Kerr (World Champ 2023)

Men's 4x100m - World Bronze (2022)

Men's 4x400m - World Bronze (2023)

Women's 100m - World Bronze (2019)

Women's 200m - World Bronze (2022)

Women's 800m - 2x Medal Chances - Hodgkinson World Silver (2023), Reekie 0.09 off olympic Bronze in Tokyo

Women's 1500m - World Bronze (2022)

Women's 5000m - Eilish McColgan

Women's 10000m - Eilish McColgan

Women's 4x100m - World Bronze (2023)

Women's 4x400m - World Bronze (2023)

Women's High Jump - 4th at Worlds (2023)

Women's Pole Vault - Olympic Bronze (2023)

Women's Long Jump - European Indoor Champ (2023)

Women's Heptathlon - World Champ (2023)

Mixed 4x400m - World Silver (2023)

 

Boxing (3-3)

Men's +92kg

Women's -54kg

Women's 66kg

 

Canoe Slalom (6-6)

Men's C1 - 5th at Worlds (2023)

Men's K1 - World Champ (2023)

Men's Extreme Kayak - World Champ (2023)

Women's C1 - World Champ (2023)

Women's K1 - World Silver (2018)

Women's Extreme Kayak - World Champ (2023)

 

Cycling

 

Road (4-4)

Men's Road Race - Always a chance

Men's Time Trial - World Bronze (2023)

Women's Road Race - Always a chance

Women's Time Trial - World 4th (2023)

 

Track (13-12)

Men's Sprint - World Bronze (2023)

Men's Team Sprint - World Bronze (2022)

Men's Keirin - 5th at Worlds (2023)

Men's Madison - World Silver (2023)

Men's Omnium - World Champ (2022)

Men's Team Pursuit - World Champ (2022)

Women's Sprint - 2x Medal Chances - Finucane (World Champ 2023), Capewell (World Cup Silvers (2023))

Women's Team Sprint - World Silver (2023)

Women's Keirin - European Silver (2023)

Women's Madison - World Champs (2023)
Women's Omnium - World Champs (2022)
Women's Team Pursuit - World Champs (2023)

 

Mountain Bike (2-2)

Men's - World Champ (2023)

Women's - World Champ (2019)

 

BMX (5-4)

Men's Race - World Silver (2022)

Men's Park - 2x Medal Chances - Reilly (World Champ (2023)), Brooks (Olympic Bronze (2021)
Women's Race - World Champ (2023)

Women's Park - Olympic Champ (2021)

 

Equestrian (9-6)

Individual Dressage - 2x Chances - Fry (2022 World Champ), Dujardin (2021 Olympic Bronze)

Team Dressage - World Sliver (2022)

Individual Eventing - 3x Changes - Ingham (2022 World Champ), McEwen (2021 Olympic Silver), Canter (2x Five Star Champ 2023)

Team Dressage - Olympic Champs (2021)

Individual Jumping - Olympic Champ (2021)

Team Jumping - World Bronze (2023)
 

Field Hockey (2-2)
Men's - European Silver (2023)

Women's - Olympic Bronze (2021)

 

Football (1-1)

Women's - World Cup Silver (2023)
 

Golf (3-2)

Men's - 2x Chances - Fitzpatrick - US open Winner (2022), Tommy Fleetwood - Open 2nd (2019)

Women's - Charley Hull - British Open silver (2023)

 

Gymnastics (12-12)

Men's Team - World Bronze (2022)
Men's AA - 5th at Worlds (2022)

Men's Floor - World Champ (2022)
Men's Pommel Horse - Olympic Champ (2021)

Men's Vault - World Champ (2023)
Men's P Bars - World Champ (2019)

Women's Team - World Silver (2022)
Women's All Around - World Bronze (2022)

Women's Beam/Vault/Floor - All Medal winners for Jess Gadirova if she is fit

Women's Trampoline - World Champ (2021)

 

Judo (3-3)

Women's -52kg - World Silver (2022)

Women's -57kg - World Silver (2019)
Women's - 63kg - Multi grand slam winner

 

Modern Pentathlon (2-2)

Men's - World Champ (2023)

Women's - World Bronze (2023)

 

Rowing (9-9)

Men's Single Sculls - World Bronze (2022)

Men's Quad - World Silver (2022)

Men's Pair - World Silver (2023)

Men's Four - World Champs (2023)

Men's Eight - World Champs (2023)

Women's Quad - World Champs (2023)

Women's Four - World Bronze (2023)
Women's Eight - 4th at Worlds (2023)

Women's Lightweight double - World Champs (2023)

 

Rugby Sevens (2-2)

Men's Tournament - 4th at Hong Kong Sevens (2023)

Women's Tournament - 3rd at Hong Kong Sevens (2023)
 

Sailing (6-6)

Men's IQ foil - 5th at Worlds (2023)

Men's Kite - Olympic Test event silver (2023)

Men's ICLA7 - World Silver (2023)
Women's IQ foil - World Bronze (2023)
Women's Kite - World Silver (2023)

Mixed Multihull - World Silver (2023)

 

Shooting (8-7)

Men's Trap - 2x Chances - Nathan Hales (World Silver (2022)), Coward Holley (World Champ 2019)

Men's Skeet - European Bronze (2022)

Women's 50m R3P - World Champ (2018)

Women's 10m AR - World Cup Winner (2023)
Women's Trap - World Cup Winner (2023)
Women's Skeet - World Silver (2022)

Mixed Skeet - World Champs (2022)

 

Skateboarding (1-1)

Women's Park - World Champ (2022)

 

Climbing (1-1)

Men's Combined - World Cup Gold (2023)

 

Taekwondo (5-5)
Men's -68kg - World Champ (2023)

Men's +80kg - World Cup gold (2023)

Women's -57kg - World Cup Gold (2023)
Women's -67kg - Olympic Silver (2021) - I live in hope

Women's +67kg - World Bronze (2023)

 

Tennis (2-2)

Men's Doubles - World no 3

Mixed Doubles - World no 3

 

Triathlon (5-3)

Men's - World Bronze (2023)

Women's - 3x Medal Chances -3x World Cup Winner (2023)

Mixed Relay- World Silver (2022)

 

Weightlifting (1-1)

Women's +81kg - World Silver (2022)

 

 

 

Total - 151 Chances in 126 Events

 

Obviously there is no chance that we get anywhere near this number of medals but it's nice to get your hopes up sometimes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Illya 513]

57 minutes ago, Belle said:

Mondo and Equestrian Jumping both team and individual. 

 

Maybe Daniel Ståhl can get a medal in Discus throw. 

I think you count out your talented Ahman/Helving in beach volleyball, they're really great guys