Medal Chances for each NOC at Paris 2024

[LDOG 2,477]

 

Good chances 

 

Women's Hockey 

Men's Rugby Sevens

 

Outside chances 

 

Sailing Nacra 17

Men's BMX Freestyle 

Kayak 1000m Men

Men's Hockey  

Men's Volleyball  

  

Good chances if qualified (+ assemble decent squad)

 

Men's Football

[phelps 8,693]

2 hours ago, Belle said:

Mondo and Equestrian Jumping both team and individual. 

 

Maybe Daniel Ståhl can get a medal in Discus throw. 

I think  have a lot more chances than that...Sailing (2, maybe even 3 good chances), Swimming (Sjostrom mainly), Shooting (men's AR and Skeet), Judo (Marcus Nyman), the men's Handball team and maybe more

[phelps 8,693]

 

 

bare minimum target: 41 medals

 

realistic target: 40-45 medals

 

best case scenario: no idea, but well in excess of 50 medals (I think we're way beyond the 100 theoretical chances, some of them really remote and unlikey to happen, of course)

 

personal thought: nothing of what written above will happen, like every other aspect in this Country, also our sport is going to die and therefore we're gonna have the worst Games ever

[heywoodu 16,460]

A best case scenario? That's going to be fun, if we add all the numbers in this thread together we'll end up with double as many gold medals as actual events, I think  

 

But right, I'll take a bit of time as well tomorrow or so because I'm curious how the Netherlands is looking. As far as I can really say anything about most sports other than athletics and the various cycling disciplines  

[rafalgorka 1,821]

3 hours ago, FireRun said:

From the top of my head 3:

 

Garnbret -  Climbing - Gold

Čeh - Discus Throw - Gold or Silver

Savšek - Canoe - Gold or Silver or Bronze

 

 

No Pogacar/Roglic/Mohoric???

[mpjmcevoy 377]

 

Serious hopes :

W 400m	Athletics	Adeleke
W 1500m	Athletics	Mageaan
M 1500m free	Aquatics	Wiffen
W 60kg	Boxing	Harrington
W 66 kg	Boxing	Broadhurst
W 75 kg	Boxing	O'Rourke
M 92 kg	Boxing	Marley
M 63.5	Boxing	Clancy
Team Jumping	Equestrian	Ireland
Men's individual	Golf	McIlroy
Pommel horse	Gymnastics	McClenehan
LMX2	Rowing	Ireland
Men's sevens	Rugby	Ireland

 

If 50% of these hit, it would be a great games

 

Outside but still serious chance

 

Michaela Walsh, boxing

Wiffen M800 free

Any individual showjumper

Ben Healy in the Road Race

M2x, M2- and top women's stroke boat in rowing

Women's sevens team

Woolley in TKD

 

Puncher's chance - 

 

any other boxer who makes it

4x4 mixed relay if Adeleke runs.

Mark English M 800

Corcoran M1500 

[OlympicIRL 6,305]

1 hour ago, mpjmcevoy said:

 

Serious hopes :

W 400m	Athletics	Adeleke
W 1500m	Athletics	Mageaan
M 1500m free	Aquatics	Wiffen
W 60kg	Boxing	Harrington
W 66 kg	Boxing	Broadhurst
W 75 kg	Boxing	O'Rourke
M 92 kg	Boxing	Marley
M 63.5	Boxing	Clancy
Team Jumping	Equestrian	Ireland
Men's individual	Golf	McIlroy
Pommel horse	Gymnastics	McClenehan
LMX2	Rowing	Ireland
Men's sevens	Rugby	Ireland

 

If 50% of these hit, it would be a great games

 

Outside but still serious chance

 

Michaela Walsh, boxing

Wiffen M800 free

Any individual showjumper

Ben Healy in the Road Race

M2x, M2- and top women's stroke boat in rowing

Women's sevens team

Woolley in TKD

 

Puncher's chance - 

 

any other boxer who makes it

4x4 mixed relay if Adeleke runs.

Mark English M 800

Corcoran M1500 

 

I would put the M2x and M2 as serious medal contenders given they won medals at this year's world championships and are on an upward trajectory. Definitely in with good chances.
Also Mona McSharry in the women's 100m breaststroke was just inches away from a medal at this years world championships where she finished 5th. I'd put her in the outside chance category.
Leona Maguire in women's golf definitely has an outside shot at a medal also. I'd be inclined to say Mark English and Andrew Coscoran would be off the list. For example, I think even our sailing team or even the eventing squad who I don't fancy at all could be more likely to sneak a medal than either of them. But it's not really on the cards.

Edited October 31, 2023 by OlympicIRL

[Josh 13,470]

5 hours ago, OlympicIRL said:

I'd be inclined to say Mark English and Andrew Coscoran would be off the list.

Agree. And Ben Healy in road cycling. 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Josh

[heywoodu 16,460]

47 minutes ago, Josh said:

Agree. And Ben Healy in road cycling. 

Hard to say. Ben Healy definitely has a serious medal chance given his incredible year and his riding style and such. But it's the road race on hilly terrain, there's always going to be at least 20-30 riders with a somewhat serious medal chance....  (and so individually, every single rider has a rather low percentage by himself, even the top favourites like Van der Poel don't have anywhere near 40% medal chance or something)

[FireRun 198]

11 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

No Pogacar/Roglic/Mohoric???

I don't see it. Especially as it's very likely both Roglič and Pogačar will focus on the TDF. And the rest of the team is too weak to support someone like Mohorič.