Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[Nickyc707 382]

3 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

 Medal Projection from Nielson Gracenote 100 days out from Paris:

 

Gold Medalists:

Betheny Shriever - BMX Racing

Joe Choong - Modern Pentathlon

Joe Clarke - Kayak X

Kimberley Woods - Kayak X

Bradley Sinden - Taekwondo -68Kg

Bryony Page - Trampoline

Oliver Townend - Eventing Individual

Women's Madison

Women's Team Pursuit

Rowing Men's Pair

Rowing Men's Four

Rowing Men's Eight

Rowing Women's Lightweight Double Sculls

 

 

Silver Medalists:

Katarina Johnson-Thompson - Heptathlon

Josh Kerr - 1500m

Keiran Reilly - BMX Freestyle

Tom Pidcock - Mountain Bike

Tom Daley/Noah Williams - Diving 10m Synchro

Jack Laugher/Anthony Harding - Diving 3m Synchro

Sky Brown - Skateboard Park

Mallory Franklin - Canoe Slalom C1

Katie Archibald - Track Cycling Omnium

Emma Finucane - Track Cycling Individual Sprint

Track Cycling - Women's Team Sprint

Track Cycling - Men's Madison

Charlote Fry - Dressage Individual

Rowing - Women's Four

Rowing - Womens Quadruple Sculls

Michael Beckett - Sailing ILCA7

Emma Wilson - Sailing - iQFOiL

John Gimson/ Anna Burnet - Sailing Nacra 17

Shooting Team Skeet

Swimming - Men's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Ben Proud - Swimming 50m Freestyle

Georgia Taylor-Brown - Triathlon

 

 

Bronze Medalists:

Jessica Gadirova - Gymnastics Floor 

Dina Asher-Smith - 200m

Matthew Hudson Smith - 400m

Keely Hodgkinson - 800m

Laura Mui - 1500m

Athletics - Women's 4x100m Relay

Athletics - Men's 4x100m Relay

Athletics - Women's 4x400m Relay

Joe Clarke - Canoe Slalom K1

Ethan Hayter - Track Cycling Omnium

Track Cycling - Men's Team Pursuit

Track Cycling - Men's Team Sprint

Andrea Spendolini Sirieix - Diving 10m Platform

Andrea Spendolini Sirieix/Lois Toulson - Diving 10m Synchro

Equestrian Team Dressage

Equestrian Team Eventing

Laura Collett - Equestrian Eventing Individual

Charley Hull - Golf

Chelsie Giles - Judo -52Kg

Lucy Renshall - Judo -63Kg

Vita Heathcote/Chris Grube - Sailing 470

Eleanor Aldridge - Sailing Formula Kite

Freya Colbert - Swimming 400m Individual Medley

Jade Jones - Taekwondo -57Kg

Rebecca McGowan - Taekwondo +67Kg

Caden Cunningham - Taekwondo +80Kg

Alex Yee - Triathlon

Beth Potter - Triathlon

Triathlon Mixed Team Relay

Emily Campbell - Weightlifting +81Kg

 

The fact that they are still projecting Gadirova as an individual medalist on floor when she is still in post injury rehab kind of calls into question either their methodology, or their attention to detail when analysing the output of their methodology.  

The Team Skeet silver will also be a challenge given that they haven't actually qualified a male skeet shooter yet.

 

On the other hand Gracenote has underestimated GB's medal total at the last three Games so their value has to be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt.

[hckošice 14,822]

1 hour ago, Faramir said:

Nope, you have to pay them to get details of a country.

and that´s something I will never do

[Styrka 206]

In 2021 I was very bad at this little game. But I want to be very, veeeery optimistic about in 2024 : I strongly believe in the "home advantage" for this type of event.

 

(I'm stealing your "Day by Day" method )

 

Day 1 Saturday 27 July

Judo : Shirine Boukli (W -48kg) - Luka Mkheidze (M -60kg)

Rugby Sevens : M Team

Skateboarding : Aurélien Giraud (M Street)

 

Day 2 Sunday 28 July

Archery : W Team

Cycling Mountain Bike : Pauline Ferrand-Prévot (W Cross Country)

Fencing : Romain Cannone (M Epee)

Judo : Amandine Buchard (W -52kg)

Shooting : Camille Jedrzejewski (W 10m Air Pistol)

Swimming : Leon Marchand (M 400m Medley)

 

Day 3 Monday 29 July

Canoe Slalom : Nicolas Gestin (M C1)

Equestrian : Eventing Team

Fencing : Sara Balzer (W Sabre) - Enzo Lefort (M Foil)

Shooting : Oceanne Muller (W 10m Air Rifle)

 

Day 4 Tuesday 30 July

Fencing : W Épée Team

Judo : Clarisse Agbegnenou (W -63 kg)

Rugby Sevens : W team

Triathlon : Dorian Coninx (but it could be anyone really) (M Individual)

 

Day 5 Wednesday 31 July

Cycling BMX Freestyle : Anthony Jeanjean (M)

Judo : Marie-Ève Gahié (W -70 kg)

Surfing : Kauli Vaast (M) & Vahine Ferro (W) - maybe I overestimate them, but they are both from Tahiti and know the place like no one else

Swimming : Leon Marchand (M 200m Butterfly + 200m Breaststroke) - Anastasiia Kirpichnikova (W 1500m Freestyle)

 

Day 6 Thursday 1 August

Canoe Slalom : Titouan Castryck (M K1)

Judo : Madeleine Malonga (W -78 kg)

Sailing : Erwan Fischer / Clément Pequin (M 49er)

Swimming : Marwen Tomac (M 200m Backstroke)

 

Day 7 Friday 2 August - I thing our "Super Friday"

BMX : 2 of the French racers (M)

Fencing : M Epee Team

Judo : Romane Dicko (W +78 kg) - Teddy Riner (M +100 kg)

Sailing : Nicolas Goyard (M) - Hélène Noesmoen (W) (IQFoil)

Swimming : Leon Marchand (M 200m Individual Medley)

 

Day 8 Saturday 3 August

Artistic Gymnastics : Coline Devillard (W Vault)

Fencing : W Sabre Team

Judo : Mixed Team

 

Day 9 Sunday 4 August

Fencing : M Team Foil

 

 

Day 10 Monday 5 August

Basketball 3x3 : W Team

Canoe Slalom : Titouan Castryck (M Kayak Cross)

Shooting : Clement Bessaguet (M Rapid Fire Pistol)

Triathlon : Mixed Team

 

Day 11 Tuesday 6 August

No one !

 

Day 12 Wednesday 7 August

Boxing : Sofiane Oumiha (M -63.5 kg)

Cycling Track : W Pursuit Team

Sailing : Camille Lecointre/Jeremie Mion (Mixed Dinghy)

 

Day 13 Thursday 8 August

Athletics : Wilheim Belocian (M 110H) - at least one medal in Athletics please

Boxing : Billal Bennama (-51kg)

Cycling Track : Benjamin Thomas (M Omnium)

Sailing : Lauriane Nolot (W) - Axel Mazella (M) (Kitefoil)

 

Day 14 Friday 9 August

Cycling Track : Clara Copponi/Victoire Berteau (W Madison)

Table Tennis : M Team

Taekwondo : Magda Wiet-Henin (W -67kg)

 

Day 15 Saturday 10 August

Handball : W Team

Taekwondo : Althéa Laurin (W +67kg)

 

Day 16 Sunday 11 August

Handball : M Team

 

Any day

Maybe some more medals in Fencing, or Mélanie de Jesus dos Santos who will have a resurrection, and some surpring medalists. Let's say three more medals.

 

Total prediction (in the very optimistic spectrum)

 

63 Medals, +/- 17 gold medals

[CCB 565]

Gold Medalists:

Harrie Lavreysen - Track Cycling Individual Sprint

Harrie Lavreysen - Track Cycling Keirin

Track Cycling Men's Team Sprint (For me Australia is the favorite with their extra rider and better start)

Track Cycling Men's Madison (Havik and Van Schip only won once accidentally during the Worlds, but with  the Dutch are outsider)

Femke Bol - 400m Hurdles (I truly not believe she's capable to beat Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone, how much I wish her to do)

Mathieu van der Poel - Cycling Road Race (Well, he is one of the riders to watch, but so many can win this)

Sharon van Rouwendaal - Marathon Swimming (She won last Worlds because the already qualified swimmers didn't take part seriously in the 10km)

Men's Field Hockey (They have a chance, but for me  and  are bigger favourites)

Women's field Hockey

Tes Schouten - Swimming 200m Breaststroke Did Gracenote ever heard of Tatjana Schoenmaker and Kate Douglass? No.

van de Werken/Lambriex - Sailing 49er

Duetz/van Aanholt - 49er FX

Luuc van Opzeeland - Sailing iQFOiL (Strange format in the final)

Rowing - Men's Double Sculls

Rowing - Women's Four(  is the big boat in this class)

Rowing - Women's Pair(   and  weren't at their best at last year's WCh, but normally those two countries fighting for gold)

Rowing - Men's quadruple Sculls

Rowing - Women's Single Sculls

 

I predict a maximum of 11 golds for us. That still would be an amazing result for our little country. Would be very happy with that.

 

Gracenote predicts only 5 silver, I predict a lot more silver!

Edited April 17 by CCB

[CCB 565]

5 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

 Medal Projection from Nielson Gracenote 100 days out from Paris:

 

Gold Medalists:

Betheny Shriever - BMX Racing

Joe Choong - Modern Pentathlon

Joe Clarke - Kayak X

Kimberley Woods - Kayak X

Bradley Sinden - Taekwondo -68Kg

Bryony Page - Trampoline

Oliver Townend - Eventing Individual

Women's Madison

Women's Team Pursuit

Rowing Men's Pair

Rowing Men's Four

Rowing Men's Eight

Rowing Women's Lightweight Double Sculls

 

 

Silver Medalists:

Katarina Johnson-Thompson - Heptathlon

Josh Kerr - 1500m

Keiran Reilly - BMX Freestyle

Tom Pidcock - Mountain Bike

Tom Daley/Noah Williams - Diving 10m Synchro

Jack Laugher/Anthony Harding - Diving 3m Synchro

Sky Brown - Skateboard Park

Mallory Franklin - Canoe Slalom C1

Katie Archibald - Track Cycling Omnium

Emma Finucane - Track Cycling Individual Sprint

Track Cycling - Women's Team Sprint

Track Cycling - Men's Madison

Charlote Fry - Dressage Individual

Rowing - Women's Four

Rowing - Womens Quadruple Sculls

Michael Beckett - Sailing ILCA7

Emma Wilson - Sailing - iQFOiL

John Gimson/ Anna Burnet - Sailing Nacra 17

Shooting Team Skeet

Swimming - Men's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Ben Proud - Swimming 50m Freestyle

Georgia Taylor-Brown - Triathlon

 

 

Bronze Medalists:

Jessica Gadirova - Gymnastics Floor 

Dina Asher-Smith - 200m

Matthew Hudson Smith - 400m

Keely Hodgkinson - 800m

Laura Mui - 1500m

Athletics - Women's 4x100m Relay

Athletics - Men's 4x100m Relay

Athletics - Women's 4x400m Relay

Joe Clarke - Canoe Slalom K1

Ethan Hayter - Track Cycling Omnium

Track Cycling - Men's Team Pursuit

Track Cycling - Men's Team Sprint

Andrea Spendolini Sirieix - Diving 10m Platform

Andrea Spendolini Sirieix/Lois Toulson - Diving 10m Synchro

Equestrian Team Dressage

Equestrian Team Eventing

Laura Collett - Equestrian Eventing Individual

Charley Hull - Golf

Chelsie Giles - Judo -52Kg

Lucy Renshall - Judo -63Kg

Vita Heathcote/Chris Grube - Sailing 470

Eleanor Aldridge - Sailing Formula Kite

Freya Colbert - Swimming 400m Individual Medley

Jade Jones - Taekwondo -57Kg

Rebecca McGowan - Taekwondo +67Kg

Caden Cunningham - Taekwondo +80Kg

Alex Yee - Triathlon

Beth Potter - Triathlon

Triathlon Mixed Team Relay

Emily Campbell - Weightlifting +81Kg

 

The fact that they are still projecting Gadirova as an individual medalist on floor when she is still in post injury rehab kind of calls into question either their methodology, or their attention to detail when analysing the output of their methodology.  

Don't know everything of British sport, but Tom Pidcock (mountainbike), EMMA FINUCANE (sprint) and Women's Four / Women's Quaduple belong to the list for gold?!? Especially Finucane!

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

11 minutes ago, CCB said:

Don't know everything of British sport, but Tom Pidcock (mountainbike), EMMA FINUCANE (sprint) and Women's Four / Women's Quaduple belong to the list for gold?!? Especially Finucane!

I agree that Finucane is probably marginal favourite for the gold but I can understand their logic - that home crowd advantage will give Mathilde Gros the edge in the sprint - but I don't think that Gros has managed to defeat Finucane in a head-to-head across the qualifying window. 

 

For the rowing, those two are more difficult to predict. China are always strong in the quadruple sculls, as are the Netherlands. As for the British Four, they had a disappointing end to 2023 at Worlds so are in a bit a rebuild phase. They should be able to get on the podium, but I wouldn't have them as favourite at the moment.   

[Dragon 1,844]

Gracenote predictions are usually good but they do have some weaknesses.

They underestimate good performances by sportspeople breaking through to top level competition at a young age and, where certain parts of the world have a big advantage over other continents, they rely too much on older global results over newer continental results

[CCB 565]

4 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

For the rowing, those two are more difficult to predict. China are always strong in the quadruple sculls, as are the Netherlands. As for the British Four, they had a disappointing end to 2023 at Worlds so are in a bit a rebuild phase. They should be able to get on the podium, but I wouldn't have them as favourite at the moment.   

Last weekend in Varese the British Four destroyed the Dutch boat. And even your second boat was faster than our boat. 

[Wumo 3,001]

Optimistic medal predictions for  Denmark.

 

Day 1

None

 

Day 2

None

 

Day 3

None

 

Day 4

None

 

Day 5

None

 

Day 6

None

 

Day 7

Shooting - Women’s 50m Rifle 3 Positions - Rikke Ibsen - (Bronze)

 

Day 8

Cycling - Men's Road Race - Mads Pedersen - (Silver)

Equestrian - Team Dressage - (Silver)

Shooting - Men's Skeet - Jesper Hansen - (Silver)

Rowing - Men's Single Sculls - Sverri Nielsen - (Bronze)

 

Day 9

Badminton - Men's Doubles - Astrup/Rasmussen - (Bronze)

 

Day 10

Badminton - Men's Singles - Viktor Axelsen - (Gold)

Badminton - Men's Singles - Anders Antonsen - (Bronze)

 

Day 11

Sailing -  Dinghy ILCA 6 - Anne-Marie Rindom - (Silver)

 

Day 12

Track Cycling - Men's Team Pursuit - (Silver)

 

Day 13

None

 

Day 14 

Boxing - Men's 71kg - Nikolai Terteryan - (Bronze)

Canoeing - Women's K-2 500 - Jorgensen/Matthiesen - (Gold)

Track Cycling - Women's Madison  -  Didriksen/Leth - (Bronze)

Taekwondo - Men's -80 kg - Edi Hrnic - (Bronze)

 

Day 15

Canoeing - Women's K-1 500 - Emma Jorgensen - (Silver)

Track Cycling - Men's Madison - Norman Leth/Morkov - (Bronze)

Handball - Women's Team - (Bronze)

 

Day 16

Handball - Men's Team - (Gold)

 

Optimistic - 18 medal 

Realistic - 11 medals

Pessimistic - 8 medals

Edited April 17 by Wumo

[RussB 189]

36 minutes ago, CCB said:

Last weekend in Varese the British Four destroyed the Dutch boat. And even your second boat was faster than our boat. 

Yes they were very impressive. Managed to get the first 4 all fit and healthy with Sam Redgrave in the boat, and able to move Helen Glover to bow looks to have paid dividends. I have them as favourites in the event.

 

Emma Finucane has the potential to be one of the stars of the games with gold prospects in all 3 sprint events. I’m not convinced Gros can get the better of her or even may struggle against the German duo.