Canada's 2024 Olympics Qualification Discussion

[Josh 10,450]

On 7/8/2024 at 5:46 PM, Josh said:

Just started the Canadian Olympic qualification overview earlier today. Should be out on this thread anywhere from Thursday to Saturday, potentially earlier/later though (really depends on how fast I can get it done)
 

Medal overview should be out by at least July 21, but again could be out earlier/later (at the very least July 23)

Got distracted 

I was bored so I did more work on it today. Given that I only have a few sports left to write about it should be out sometime Saturday (probably not during tomorrow’s Wimbledon matches or the Copa America 3rd place game)

[Josh 10,450]

Canadian Olympic Qualification Period Overview

 

Over two years ago the Olympic qualification period started for Paris 2024. Canada won its first quota on November 1, 2022, when our women’s artistic gymnastics team won a surprise bronze medal at the World Championships to qualify for the Olympics. Now, on July 5, 2024 following the reallocation of athletics quotas to Scott, Current, and Thorne, the qualification period is over, which means it’s full steam ahead in the few weeks leading up to the Olympics. 
 

Canada will be sending a strong contingent of 318 athletes to Paris, 123 men and 195 women, consisting of many medal chances. Fencing, shooting, and cycling/wrestling were nice surprises, and diving, surfing, rowing, boxing were disappointments. Our Paris total surpasses our Rio total, but we’re well down on the 381 we qualified to Tokyo. Very disappointing number IMO considering I feel like we’ve got stronger in sport within the last couple of years, not to mention the fact that Russia has been banned from the majority of sports as well. 

 

Just a side note, I’m still young and my vocabulary isn’t the most advanced (half of the time I’m using the word “though” instead of alternatives ) so apologies for that. 

 

From a Canadian perspective we’ve experienced it all. The highs, the lows, the disappointments, the surprises, and of course the incredible performances by our athletes. Coming back from down 12 against Spain at the FIBA Basketball World Cup to FINALLY qualify our men’s basketball team, to the heartbreak of falling just short of qualifying in women’s volleyball at VNL in a head to head match with Netherlands (a month later, and I still can’t get over it), to Summer McIntosh’s 3 world records in a span of two years. I could go on and on…

 

Anyways, here’s the overview of every sport at the Olympics from a Canadian qualification perspective. 

 

Archery - Canada qualified one male and one female athlete, as expected. But that doesn’t mean that we haven’t experienced any disappointment in archery, as we blew two solid chances to qualify a men’s team, first at the Pan American Olympic Qualifier (where Duenas put his arrow into the 7s in the shoot-off and was struggling all match long) and second at the Final World Olympic Qualifier, after coming off a bronze at the World Cup in Yecheon just a couple of weeks earlier. 
 

Artistic Swimming - Qualifying a team here was unexpected, especially considering we had to beat the likes of Ukraine and Greece at the World Championships to do it. Back in October at the Pan Am Games, I had doubts that we’d even qualify in this sport. I suspect a lot of the credit has to go to Anna Voloshyna, who Artistic Swimming Canada hired as the new head coach of the team back in January 2024, she’s doing wonders with this team. 

 

Athletics - 51 is a solid number, but there’s been many injuries and late comebacks that have impacted our team size/strength. Also didn’t help that our National Championships was held on a shit track, and with poor weather overall. 

 

Injured

Khamica Bingham (Women’s 100m)
Julie Ann-Staehli (Women’s 5000m)

Justyn Knight (Men’s 5000m)

Trevor Hofbauer (Men’s Marathon)

 

Failed to Qualify

Natasha Wodak (Women’s Marathon)

Sage Walker (Women’s 400m Hurdles)

Aurora Rynda (Women’s 800m)

Django Lovett (Men’s High Jump)

Brooke Overholt (Women’s 400m Hurdles)

Gabriela De Bues Stafford (Women’s 5000m)

Jillian Weir (Women’s Hammer Throw)

Julia Tunks (Women’s Discus Throw)

Ben Priesner (Men’s Marathon)

Myles Misener Daley (Men’s 400m)
Will Floyd (Men’s 400m)

Michael Roth (Men’s 400m)

Kaila Butler (Women’s Hammer Throw)

Malik Metiever (Men’s 400m Hurdles)

Elizabeth Gleadle (Women’s Javelin Throw)

 

Retired

Brandon McBride (men’s 800m

 

Badminton - Besides rowing, this was one of our most disappointing qualification numbers. We only managed to qualify athletes in men’s singles, women’s singles, and men’s doubles, despite clearly being the dominant Pan American nation for the past few years. While it’s partially due to the Americans competing in a few more tournaments, our mixed doubles/women’s doubles pairings had a chance to overtake their counterparts with the gold medal at the Pan American Championships, but both bombed out in the semifinals. Nobody’s fault but themselves.

 

Basketball - If there was a sport that could be described as a rollercoaster of emotions this would be the sport. Or at least one of two. (more on that later)

 

Canada’s men’s team faced Spain in the second round of the FIBA Men’s World Cup for a spot at the Olympics for the first time since 2000, and were down by 12 heading into the 4th quarter. SGA and Brooks said no problem, combining for 24 out of Canada’s 27 points (SGA 13, Brooks 11) to secure Canada the W. After many close misses in previous qualifying tournaments, it was great to see them finally get the job done. 
 

As for the team announcement, pretty much exactly as expected. Kerr mugged off Wiggins by not allowing him to go to the Canada Basketball Olympic Training Camp, while Edey decided to focus on the NBA Summer League after getting drafted by the Memphis Grizzlies a couple of months ago. Sharpe is injured. 

 

Canada’s women’s team largely struggled at the FIBA Olympic Qualification Tournament, yet still managed to qualify for the Olympics. First, they had a chance to keep their Olympic dreams into their own hands, needing a win against Japan in their final match, but dropped it by a score of 86-82. That meant they had to rely on Spain defeating Hungary, and down by 21 with a little under 7 minutes to go in the 3rd period things were looking bleak. But against the odds, they came back and won. I was lost for words, I couldn’t believe what just happened. 
 

Would’ve liked to see youngster Toby Fournier on the roster instead of Sami Hill, but given her lack of international experience I can see why they left her off. Other than that, the exact roster that I envisioned. 
 

Canada’s women’s 3x3 team had two chances to qualify for the Olympics. First at the Universality Olympic Qualification Tournament 2, then the Olympic Qualification Tournament. Given their dominance on the Women’s Series, I didn’t have any doubt that they’d eventually book their ticket. They dropped the Olympic ticket match to Australia at their first opportunity, and Spain at their second opportunity. That’s when I started to get worried honestly (even though we were taking on Hungary, who are a quality team but notches below all three teams), because even though those are both medal contending teams I didn’t think it would have to come down to a last match. In the end, we ended up demolishing Hungary as expected, which was a major sense of relief. 

Boxing - Thibeault and Sanfords both got their ticket to Paris through the Pan American Games. Sanford’s performance in particular stood out to me, he didn’t have the easiest of draws as a mediocre boxer in the draw and very surprisingly dispatched all of his opponents. Another thing, Wright got robbed in her quarterfinal bout against Bravo, but given it was in Chile obviously the refs are going to be biased towards her. Cavanaugh, one of our best chances at a medal retired at the start of the year, due to her hating the sport and Barriere switched temporarily from pro to amateur for the First World Qualifier. Delgado lost her quota bout on a split decision to Cirkovic, and Barriere lost his quota bout in a close loss to Moindze. He withdrew from the Second World Qualifier to focus on pro boxing again. At the Second World Qualifier, Wright fought in the quota bout against a very winnable opponent in Bravo but got swept. 

Breaking - We qualified Philip Kim and no one else, as expected. I don’t really care about this “sport” though. 

Canoeing - Team of 15, which is more or less what I expected from the team. Nothing else to say here. 

Cycling - Team of 22, really satisfied with the number. Men’s and women’s team sprints had to work for their spot at the last Nations Cup, and we also won an unexpected quota in men’s BMX freestyle which will signify our Olympic debut in the sport which is nice. Obviously I had hope for Ryan Tougas at the World Championships, but he crashed in the semifinals and the Chilean won the quota instead. Same for a 3rd men’s and women’s quota in road cycling, and a 2nd men’s and women’s quota in men’s mountain biking. 

Diving - What a disaster. Not only do we fail to grab a women’s 3m synchro springboard quota, but we also fail to qualify a 2nd athlete individually. Vallee and Ware were world medalists individually in 2022/2023, and were just a few points shy of a synchro quota in 2022 but other than the Pan Am Games have struggled a lot since then. 

Equestrian - We qualified teams in eventing, jumping, and dressage as expected through the Pan American Games. What’s confusing though, is that none of our Canadian #1’s have been selected for the Olympic team. 

Football - Women’s team qualifying was never in doubt really, yet I was still somewhat concerned because of Jamaica’s brilliant performance at last years World Cup combined with Canada’s horrific tournament. 

Fencing -  We have 15 athletes qualified, entries in all individual events, and in three team events. Largest team in quite a while I’d say? Overall, super happy with how fencing has gone. 

Golf - We qualified 2 men and 2 women as usual. Nothing else to say here. Shame we couldn’t qualify 4 male golfers (a lot of them are decently ranked), but with the qualification system it was always going to be hard. 

Gymnastics - It required a LOT of luck (lots of falls), but our women’s team booked their ticket to Paris during their first opportunity at the 2022 World Championships, which was a huge surprise. Men’s team qualifying the year after was also cool to see, their last appearance at the Olympics was back in Beijing 2008.

Judo - We qualified 3 men, and 4 women, which is an increase by 1 on our total. More or less, most of the judoka that qualified were expected to make it to the Olympics. There was one surprise however, Portuondo Isasi came out of nowhere in 2024 to grab a team invitational quota, mainly due to her  unexpected silver medal at the Pan American Championships. 

Modern Pentathlon - That reminds me… Kelly Fitzsimmons was 27 POINTS ahead of 3rd ranked North American Davis for an Olympic quota entering the laser run. YES, 27!! I knew shooting wasn’t her forte based off of qualification, but with a lead that big I thought no way would she blow it. I thought wrong, her performance pissed me off. She was around 25 seconds slower than she was during the qualification round. I mean seriously, I could’ve done better than that. Wasn’t even expecting her to be in contention though. 

Rowing - No words. By far and away the most disappointing sport for Canada throughout the Olympic qualification period (only women’s eight and women’s double sculls qualified), and it’s not even close. That’s what Rowing Canada gets for firing Michelle Darvill I guess 

 

First time in history that Canada will not be present in men’s rowing at the Olympics. 

 

Special shout-out (… not) to our men’s eight who blew their opportunity to qualify for the Olympics at the Final Qualification Regatta. They were 2.67 seconds ahead of Italy for the final Olympic quota with only 500m to go, but faded badly and missed out by 0.01 

 

Rugby Sevens - Women’s team demolished the field at the North American Olympic Qualifier to qualify as expected. Men’s team was so close to joining them, losing the final 14-12 to United States. That was their best chance to qualify, and they didn’t take it. As for the women’s team, De Goede is out injured for Canada, which is a huge hit to our medal chances, and De Couvreur isn’t on our squad either (not sure why)
Sailing - We qualified boats in men’s 49er, women’s 49er FX, women’s ICLA6, and women’s kite as expected. For the first time in HISTORY however, we failed to qualify in men’s ICLA7. Ruitenberg was just a few spots off at World Championships I’m pretty sure. 

Shooting - Another unexpected outcome in terms of quotas, wasn’t expecting 3 (maybe 1 at best). Actually, it was really lucky that we won the quota in men’s 50m rifle 3 positions at the Pan American Championships, as Ikeda was 1.8 points behind a provisional quota spot with only one shot left (for one of them at least, and in shooting that’s a LOT), and then the Argentinian blew it with a 6.0.

Skateboarding - We equaled our Tokyo total, with 4. All quotas were as expected, with 3 in men’s street and 1 in women’s park. 

Surfing - More disappointment. Sanoa Olin qualified for Canada’s Olympic debut in this sport, but Erin Brooks and Cody Young both won’t be surfing the Tahiti waves. Young after just barely missing out on a spot at Tokyo, got called up as an alternate, but withdrew because he didn’t make it in time. He fell just shy again, and is 2nd alternate. Brooks won silver the year before, and is widely regarded as the next big young surfing talent, and bombed out in an early repechage. She’s been crushing it on the WSL Challenger Series, which makes her failing to qualify for the Olympics even more disappointing (need to think of some new adjectives, I’ve been using this word way too much)

Sport Climbing - Well, as soon as the two Americans in men’s and women’s combined failed to qualify through the World Championships, I knew our chances to qualify here were little to none. Was hoping for Yip to make her 2nd Olympics, after being diagnosed with alopecia earlier this year, but she wasn’t even close to qualifying.

Swimming - 29 athletes is more or less what I expected from Canada. Was hoping for either LePage or Branton to get a spot in the women’s 100m breaststroke (as Wog doesn’t have the OQT) so that they could experience the biggest level of sport but not really surprised that Swimming Canada left both off. I was also hoping that MacNeil would decline her spot in the women’s 100 freestyle, so that Oleksiak could race it individually but oh well. 

Table Tennis - In the most improbable of circumstances, somehow we managed to qualify a men’s team in table tennis at the Pan American Championships through a games won tiebreaker. Mo Zhang also qualified as expected. Wish Ivy Liao could’ve qualified in women’s singles as well through the Pan American Olympic Qualifier, but it was always going to be a tossup given how even the field was. 

Taekwondo - Skylar Park qualified through the Olympic Rankings as expected. During the Pan American Qualification Tournament, there’s things that went in our favor and things that did not. Kafadar robbed the Colombian athlete, and the Argentinian athlete robbed Park. Keep in mind I don’t follow taekwondo, but I know a bit about the rules and the Argentinian should’ve been given a penalty. 

Tennis - Auger-Aliassime, Dabrowski, Andresscu, and Fernandez all qualified as expected. Raonic is the only unexpected name, but given he’s been injured a lot the last few years I knew it was a possibility that he could use his PR. There was a bit of a letdown though, Marino was one of the highest ranked players by a mile at the Pan American Games and yet went out in the semifinals. Then there’s Shapo, who chose to focus on the tour and preparing for the hard court season. 

Triathlon - No full team unlike in Tokyo. Jamnicky was in a quota position for quite a while but got bumped out a few events before the end of the qualification period. Her bad/mediocre results really didn’t help her. 
Weightlifting - Charron booked her ticket to Paris to absolutely no one’s surprise. Even though Santavy did as well, I thought it would’ve been easier for him to qualify. I thought he would’ve been in a higher position in the Olympic Rankings and not had to rely on any potential reallocations. 

Wrestling - 6 qualified was well above my expectations. Only real regret I have is Morais missing out on a quota at the Pan American Olympic Qualifier, losing by fall after leading 9-4 (?) in the quarterfinals but given that she qualified later on at the World Olympic Qualifier it’s not that important. 

Volleyball - Go back two years, and you’ll hear me saying “we have chance at a quota in women’s volleyball”. Despite not qualifying, oh did the girls prove me wrong. I started following our women’s volleyball team back in 2022, during the start of the World Championships. That tournament they upset a couple of their opponents, and it made me believe that yes, they do have the potential to make it to Paris. Even though they just barely missed out on two separate occasions, first at the Olympic Qualifier (if they had taken one more set against Dominican Republic, they would’ve qualified), and second in that direct head to head match against Netherlands at VNL (could’ve been avoided had they won against Serbia),  I’m so proud of the team for how well they fought. They’ve been on a meteoric rise ever since then, and I’m hoping it can translate into Olympic qualification for LA 2028. This team failing to qualify still stings though, even a little over a month later. 
 

As far as the men’s volleyball team goes, it was also a mental roller coaster. Back in late 2022 we hired Tuomas Sammelvuo as our head coach. Sammelvuo only had a few weeks with the team before the start of VNL (due to club season volleyball), where we were absolutely dreadful going 3-9. I first started to see some major signs of improvement within the team at the Continental Championships, where we beat Cuba in a 5 set thriller in the semifinals and lost to United States in 3 very tight sets in the final. Coming into the Olympic Qualifier, I thought a top 3 finish was possible, and maybe an outside chance at a quota, but I didn’t think it would actually happen. After beating Argentina in 4, Netherlands in 5, and a loss to Poland in 5, you would think that they’re well on their way to Olympic qualification having gotten all of their “hard” matches out of the way, but WRONG!! Belgium was also having themselves a great tournament, I would say the tournament of their lives, and it was likely going to come down to the head to head between the two. That match came, and what a time to have your worst game. Canada’s performance was so pathetic, especially given the stakes, that I stopped watching during the 4th set. I was pissed. Fun (or not so fun…) fact, I still have nightmares about that match against Belgium. That’s how horribly it went. All Belgium had to do was win against Bulgaria and they were in. I knew it was over. However, I still had to hold on to that little bit of faith. I of course had to watch the match on VBTV, while also constantly refreshing scores on Flashscore, and when Belgium went 2-1 up (after being 1-0 down) my spirits deflated. Bulgaria ended up taking set 4, and started off set 5 8-4 up. That’s when I started to believe. 8-8. After Bulgaria blew their second multi point lead at 12-9, and third at 13-11, I started to get worried again. But MP arrived for Bulgaria, and Penchev blocked Reggers to seal the deal. I was so fucking stoked that I was fist pumping for a good 10 minutes, and yelled “LET’S FUCKING GOOOOOO” a few times as well  (I think I might have woke up my dad)

 

Eshenko and Schnitzer are the most notable absences on the Olympic roster due to injury. Eshenko had a great VNL up until that point, such a shame. Of course, there’s also names that could’ve made an impact but have retired from the national team, such as Perrin and Sclater (Sammelvuo I love you man, but come on)

 

@orangeman

 

Waterpolo - Lastly, waterpolo. During last years World Championships, when US (who have been dominant in women’s waterpolo for quite a while now) failed to qualify for the Olympics, I knew it would come down to this years World Championships. The team that I thought we’d be facing off against for the quota Greece, qualified at Europeans. It ended up coming down to Hungary, Italy, Canada for 2 Olympic spots at this years World Championships, and I had little hope. As soon as we lost to Italy for 7th, I went straight to bed thinking it was a waste of my time, but then in a sudden turn of events South Africa ended up declining their continental quota and Canada ended up qualifying. 

 

We had no chance at all to qualify in either field hockey (we’ve regressed a lot in this sport since qualifying one almost two teams to Tokyo) or handball, so didn’t feel the need to mention them. 

Edited July 21 by Josh

[Surlympics 728]

1 hour ago, Josh said:

Canadian Olympic Qualification Period Overview

 

Over two years ago the Olympic qualification period started for Paris 2024. Canada won its first quota on November 1, 2022, when our women’s artistic gymnastics team won a surprise bronze medal at the World Championships to qualify for the Olympics. Now, on July 5, 2024 following the reallocation of athletics quotas to Scott, Current, and Thorne, the qualification period is over, which means it’s full steam ahead in the few weeks leading up to the Olympics. 
 

Canada will be sending a strong contingent of 318 athletes to Paris, 123 men and 195 women, consisting of many medal chances. Fencing, shooting, and cycling/wrestling were nice surprises, and diving, surfing, rowing, boxing were disappointments. Our Paris total surpasses our Rio total, but we’re well down on the 381 we qualified to Tokyo. Very disappointing number IMO considering I feel like we’ve got stronger in sport within the last couple of years, not to mention the fact that Russia has been banned from the majority of sports as well. 

 

Just a side note, I’m still young and my vocabulary isn’t the most advanced (half of the time I’m using the word “though” instead of alternatives ) so apologies for that. 

 

From a Canadian perspective we’ve experienced it all. The highs, the lows, the disappointments, the surprises, and of course the incredible performances by our athletes. Coming back from down 12 against Spain at the FIBA Basketball World Cup to FINALLY qualify our men’s basketball team, to the heartbreak of falling just short of qualifying in women’s volleyball at VNL in a head to head match with Netherlands (a month later, and I still can’t get over it), to Summer McIntosh’s 3 world records in a span of two years. I could go on and on…

 

Anyways, here’s the overview of every sport at the Olympics from a Canadian qualification perspective. 

 

Archery - Canada qualified one male and one female athlete, as expected. But that doesn’t mean that we haven’t experienced any disappointment in archery, as we blew two solid chances to qualify a men’s team, first at the Pan American Olympic Qualifier (where Duenas put his arrow into the 7s in the shoot-off and was struggling all match long) and second at the Final World Olympic Qualifier, after coming off a bronze at the World Cup in Yecheon just a couple of weeks earlier. 
 

Artistic Swimming - Qualifying a team here was unexpected, especially considering we had to beat the likes of Ukraine and Greece at the World Championships to do it. Back in October at the Pan Am Games, I had doubts that we’d even qualify in this sport. I suspect a lot of the credit has to go to Anna Voloshyna, who Artistic Swimming Canada hired as the new head coach of the team back in January 2024, she’s doing wonders with this team. 

 

Athletics - 51 is a solid number, but there’s been many injuries and late comebacks that have impacted our team size/strength. Also didn’t help that our National Championships was held on a shit track, and with poor weather overall. 

 

Injured

Khamica Bingham (Women’s 100m)
Julie Ann-Staehli (Women’s 5000m)

Justyn Knight (Men’s 5000m)

Trevor Hofbauer (Men’s Marathon)

 

Failed to Qualify

Natasha Wodak (Women’s Marathon)

Sage Walker (Women’s 400m Hurdles)

Aurora Rynda (Women’s 800m)

Django Lovett (Men’s High Jump)

Brooke Overholt (Women’s 400m Hurdles)

Gabriela De Bues Stafford (Women’s 5000m)

Jillian Weir (Women’s Hammer Throw)

Julia Tunks (Women’s Discus Throw)

Ben Priesner (Men’s Marathon)

Myles Misener Daley (Men’s 400m)
Will Floyd (Men’s 400m)

Michael Roth (Men’s 400m)

Kaila Butler (Women’s Hammer Throw)

Malik Metiever (Men’s 400m Hurdles)

Elizabeth Gleadle (Women’s Javelin Throw)

 

Retired

Brandon McBride (men’s 800m

 

Badminton - Besides rowing, this was one of our most disappointing qualification numbers. We only managed to qualify athletes in men’s singles, women’s singles, and men’s doubles, despite clearly being the dominant Pan American nation for the past few years. While it’s partially due to the Americans competing in a few more tournaments, our mixed doubles/women’s doubles pairings had a chance to overtake their counterparts with the gold medal at the Pan American Championships, but both bombed out in the semifinals. Nobody’s fault but themselves.

 

Basketball - If there was a sport that could be described as a rollercoaster of emotions this would be the sport. Or at least one of two. (more on that later)

 

Canada’s men’s team faced Spain in the second round of the FIBA Men’s World Cup for a spot at the Olympics for the first time since 2000, and were down by 12 heading into the 4th quarter. SGA and Brooks said no problem, combining for 24 out of Canada’s 27 points (SGA 13, Brooks 11) to secure Canada the W. After many close misses in previous qualifying tournaments, it was great to see them finally get the job done. 
 

As for the team announcement, pretty much exactly as expected. Kerr mugged off Wiggins by not allowing him to go to the Canada Basketball Olympic Training Camp, while Edey decided to focus on the NBA Summer League after getting drafted by the Memphis Grizzlies a couple of months ago. Sharpe is injured. 

 

Canada’s women’s team largely struggled at the FIBA Olympic Qualification Tournament, yet still managed to qualify for the Olympics. First, they had a chance to keep their Olympic dreams into their own hands, needing a win against Japan in their final match, but dropped it by a score of 86-82. That meant they had to rely on Spain defeating Hungary, and down by 21 with a little under 7 minutes to go in the 3rd period things were looking bleak. But against the odds, they came back and won. I was lost for words, I couldn’t believe what just happened. 
 

Would’ve liked to see youngster Toby Fournier on the roster instead of Sami Hill, but given her lack of international experience I can see why they left her off. Other than that, the exact roster that I envisioned. 
 

Canada’s women’s 3x3 team had two chances to qualify for the Olympics. First at the Universality Olympic Qualification Tournament 2, then the Olympic Qualification Tournament. Given their dominance on the Women’s Series, I didn’t have any doubt that they’d eventually book their ticket. They dropped the Olympic ticket match to Australia at their first opportunity, and Spain at their second opportunity. That’s when I started to get worried honestly (even though we were taking on Hungary, who are a quality team but notches below all three teams), because even though those are both medal contending teams I didn’t think it would have to come down to a last match. In the end, we ended up demolishing Hungary as expected, which was a major sense of relief. 

Boxing - Thibeault and Sanfords both got their ticket to Paris through the Pan American Games. Sanford’s performance in particular stood out to me, he didn’t have the easiest of draws as a mediocre boxer in the draw and very surprisingly dispatched all of his opponents. Another thing, Wright got robbed in her quarterfinal bout against Bravo, but given it was in Chile obviously the refs are going to be biased towards her. Cavanaugh, one of our best chances at a medal retired at the start of the year, due to her hating the sport and Barriere switched temporarily from pro to amateur for the First World Qualifier. Delgado lost her quota bout on a split decision to Cirkovic, and Barriere lost his quota bout in a close loss to Moindze. He withdrew from the Second World Qualifier to focus on pro boxing again. At the Second World Qualifier, Wright fought in the quota bout against a very winnable opponent in Bravo but got swept. 

Breaking - We qualified Philip Kim and no one else, as expected. I don’t really care about this “sport” though. 

Canoeing - Team of 15, which is more or less what I expected from the team. Nothing else to say here. 

Cycling - Team of 22, really satisfied with the number. Men’s and women’s team sprints had to work for their spot at the last Nations Cup, and we also won an unexpected quota in men’s BMX freestyle which will signify our Olympic debut in the sport which is nice. Obviously I had hope for Ryan Tougas at the World Championships, but he crashed in the semifinals and the Chilean won the quota instead. Same for a 3rd men’s and women’s quota in road cycling, and a 2nd men’s and women’s quota in men’s mountain biking. 

Diving - What a disaster. Not only do we fail to grab a women’s 3m synchro springboard quota, but we also fail to qualify a 2nd athlete individually. Vallee and Ware were world medalists individually in 2022/2023, and were just a few points shy of a synchro quota in 2022 but other than the Pan Am Games have struggled a lot since then. 

Equestrian - We qualified teams in eventing, jumping, and dressage as expected through the Pan American Games. What’s confusing though, is that none of our Canadian #1’s have been selected for the Olympic team. 

Football - Women’s team qualifying was never in doubt really, yet I was still somewhat concerned because of Jamaica’s brilliant performance at last years World Cup combined with Canada’s horrific tournament. 

Fencing -  We have 15 athletes qualified, entries in all individual events, and in three team events. Largest team in quite a while I’d say? Overall, super happy with how fencing has gone. 

Golf - We qualified 2 men and 2 women as usual. Nothing else to say here. Shame we couldn’t qualify 4 male golfers (a lot of them are decently ranked), but with the qualification system it was always going to be hard. 

Gymnastics - It required a LOT of luck (lots of falls), but our women’s team booked their ticket to Paris during their first opportunity at the 2022 World Championships, which was a huge surprise. Men’s team qualifying the year after was also cool to see, their last appearance at the Olympics was back in Beijing 2008.

Judo - We qualified 3 men, and 4 women, which is an increase by 1 on our total. More or less, most of the judoka that qualified were expected to make it to the Olympics. There was one surprise however, Portuondo Isasi came out of nowhere in 2024 to grab a team invitational quota, mainly due to her  unexpected silver medal at the Pan American Championships. 

Modern Pentathlon - That reminds me… Kelly Fitzsimmons was 27 POINTS ahead of 3rd ranked North American Davis for an Olympic quota entering the laser run. YES, 27!! I knew shooting wasn’t her forte based off of qualification, but with a lead that big I thought no way would she blow it. I thought wrong, her performance pissed me off. She was around 25 seconds slower than she was during the qualification round. I mean seriously, I could’ve done better than that. Wasn’t even expecting her to be in contention though. 

Rowing - No words. By far and away the most disappointing sport for Canada throughout the Olympic qualification period (only women’s eight and women’s double sculls qualified), and it’s not even close. That’s what Rowing Canada gets for firing Michelle Darvill I guess 

 

First time in history that Canada will not be present in men’s rowing at the Olympics. 

 

Special shout-out (… not) to our men’s eight who blew their opportunity to qualify for the Olympics at the Final Qualification Regatta. They were 2.67 seconds ahead of Italy for the final Olympic quota with only 500m to go, but faded badly and missed out by 0.01 

 

Rugby Sevens - Women’s team demolished the field at the North American Olympic Qualifier to qualify as expected. Men’s team was so close to joining them, losing the final 14-12 to United States. That was their best chance to qualify, and they didn’t take it. As for the women’s team, De Goede is out injured for Canada, which is a huge hit to our medal chances, and De Couvreur isn’t on our squad either (not sure why)
Sailing - We qualified boats in men’s 49er, women’s 49er FX, women’s ICLA6, and women’s kite as expected. For the first time in HISTORY however, we failed to qualify in men’s ICLA7. Ruitenberg was just a few spots off at World Championships I’m pretty sure. 

Shooting - Another unexpected outcome in terms of quotas, wasn’t expecting 3 (maybe 1 at best). Actually, it was really lucky that we won the quota in men’s 50m rifle 3 positions at the Pan American Championships, as Ikeda was 1.8 points behind a provisional quota spot with only one shot left (for one of them at least, and in shooting that’s a LOT), and then the Argentinian blew it with a 6.0.

Skateboarding - We equaled our Tokyo total, with 4. All quotas were as expected, with 3 in men’s street and 1 in women’s park. 

Surfing - More disappointment. Sanoa Olin qualified for Canada’s Olympic debut in this sport, but Erin Brooks and Cody Young both won’t be surfing the Tahiti waves. Young after just barely missing out on a spot at Tokyo, got called up as an alternate, but withdrew because he didn’t make it in time. He fell just shy again, and is 2nd alternate. Brooks won silver the year before, and is widely regarded as the next big young surfing talent, and bombed out in an early repechage. She’s been crushing it on the WSL Challenger Series, which makes her failing to qualify for the Olympics even more disappointing (need to think of some new adjectives, I’ve been using this word way too much)

Sport Climbing - Well, as soon as the two Americans in men’s and women’s combined failed to qualify through the World Championships, I knew our chances to qualify here were little to none. Was hoping for Yip to make her 2nd Olympics, after being diagnosed with alopecia earlier this year, but she wasn’t even close to qualifying.

Swimming - 29 athletes is more or less what I expected from Canada. Was hoping for either LePage or Branton to get a spot in the women’s 100m breaststroke (as Wog doesn’t have the OQT) so that they could experience the biggest level of sport but not really surprised that Swimming Canada left both off. I was also hoping that MacNeil would decline her spot in the women’s 100 freestyle, so that Oleksiak could race it individually but oh well. 

Table Tennis - In the most improbable of circumstances, somehow we managed to qualify a men’s team in table tennis at the Pan American Championships through a games won tiebreaker. Mo Zhang also qualified as expected. Wish Ivy Liao could’ve qualified in women’s singles as well through the Pan American Olympic Qualifier, but it was always going to be a tossup given how even the field was. 

Taekwondo - Skylar Park qualified through the Olympic Rankings as expected. During the Pan American Qualification Tournament, there’s things that went in our favor and things that did not. Kafadar robbed the Colombian athlete, and the Argentinian athlete robbed Park. Keep in mind I don’t follow taekwondo, but I know a bit about the rules and the Argentinian should’ve been given a penalty. 

Tennis - Auger-Aliassime, Dabrowski, Andresscu, and Fernandez all qualified as expected. Raonic is the only unexpected name, but given he’s been injured a lot the last few years I knew it was a possibility that he could use his PR. There was a bit of a letdown though, Marino was one of the highest ranked players by a mile at the Pan American Games and yet went out in the semifinals. Then there’s Shapo, who chose to focus on the tour and preparing for the hard court season. 

Triathlon - No full team unlike in Tokyo. Jamnicky was in a quota position for quite a while but got bumped out a few events before the end of the qualification period. Her bad/mediocre results really didn’t help her. 
Weightlifting - Charron booked her ticket to Paris to absolutely no one’s surprise. Even though Santavy did as well, I thought it would’ve been easier for him to qualify. I thought he would’ve been in a higher position in the Olympic Rankings and not had to rely on any potential reallocations. 

Wrestling - 6 qualified was well above my expectations. Only real regret I have is Morais missing out on a quota at the Pan American Olympic Qualifier, losing by fall after leading 9-4 (?) in the quarterfinals but given that she qualified later on at the World Olympic Qualifier it’s not that important. 

Volleyball - Go back two years, and you’ll hear me saying “we have chance at a quota in women’s volleyball”. Despite not qualifying, oh did the girls prove me wrong. I started following our women’s volleyball team back in 2022, during the start of the World Championships. That tournament they upset a couple of their opponents, and it made me believe that yes, they do have the potential to make it to Paris. Even though they just barely missed out on two separate occasions, first at the Olympic Qualifier (if they had taken one more set against Dominican Republic, they would’ve qualified), and second in that direct head to head match against Netherlands at VNL (could’ve been avoided had they won against Serbia),  I’m so proud of the team for how well they fought. They’ve been on a meteoric rise ever since then, and I’m hoping it can translate into Olympic qualification for LA 2028. This team failing to qualify still stings though, even a little over a month later. 
 

As far as the men’s volleyball team goes, it was also a mental roller coaster. Back in late 2022 we hired Tuomas Sammelvuo as our head coach. Sammelvuo only had a few weeks with the team before the start of VNL (due to club season volleyball), where we were absolutely dreadful going 3-9. I first started to see some major signs of improvement within the team at the Continental Championships, where we beat Cuba in a 5 set thriller in the semifinals and lost to United States in 3 very tight sets in the final. Coming into the Olympic Qualifier, I thought a top 3 finish was possible, and maybe an outside chance at a quota, but I didn’t think it would actually happen. After beating Argentina in 4, Netherlands in 5, and a loss to Poland in 5, you would think that they’re well on their way to Olympic qualification having gotten all of their “hard” matches out of the way, but WRONG!! Belgium was also having themselves a great tournament, I would say the tournament of their lives, and it was likely going to come down to the head to head between the two. That match came, and what a time to have your worst game. Canada’s performance was so pathetic, especially given the stakes, that I stopped watching during the 4th set. I was pissed. Fun (or not so fun…) fact, I still have nightmares about that match against Belgium. That’s how horribly it went. All Belgium had to do was win against Bulgaria and they were in. I knew it was over. However, I still had to hold on to that little bit of faith. I of course had to watch the match on VBTV, while also constantly refreshing scores on Flashscore, and when Belgium went 2-1 up (after being 1-0 down) my spirits deflated. Bulgaria ended up taking set 4, and started off set 5 8-4 up. That’s when I started to believe. 8-8. After Bulgaria blew their second multi point lead at 12-9, and third at 13-11, I started to get worried again. But MP arrived for Bulgaria, and Penchev blocked Reggers to seal the deal. I was so fucking stoked that I was fist pumping for a good 10 minutes, and yelled “LET’S FUCKING GOOOOOO” a few times as well  (I think I might have woke up my dad)

 

Eshenko and Schnitzer are the most notable absences on the Olympic roster due to injury. Eshenko had a great VNL up until that point, such a shame. Of course, there’s also names that could’ve made an impact but have retired from the national team, such as Perrin and Sclater (Sammelvuo I love you man, but come on)

 

@orangeman

 

Waterpolo - Lastly, waterpolo. During last years World Championships, when US (who have been dominant in women’s waterpolo for quite a while now) failed to qualify for the Olympics, I knew it would come down to this years World Championships. The team that I thought we’d be facing off against for the quota Greece, qualified at Europeans. It ended up coming down to Hungary, Italy, Canada for 2 Olympic spots at this years World Championships, and I had little hope. As soon as we lost to Italy for 7th, I went straight to bed thinking it was a waste of my time, but then in a sudden turn of events South Africa ended up declining their continental quota and Canada ended up qualifying. 

 

Handball and field hockey (we’ve regressed a lot in this sport since qualifying one almost two teams to Tokyo), and given we had no chance at all to qualify in either, didn’t feel the need to mention them. 

The fist pumping for ten minutes straight killed me haha

[Josh 10,450]

On 7/13/2024 at 8:27 PM, Josh said:

Canadian Olympic Qualification Period Overview

 

Over two years ago the Olympic qualification period started for Paris 2024. Canada won its first quota on November 1, 2022, when our women’s artistic gymnastics team won a surprise bronze medal at the World Championships to qualify for the Olympics. Now, on July 5, 2024 following the reallocation of athletics quotas to Scott, Current, and Thorne, the qualification period is over, which means it’s full steam ahead in the few weeks leading up to the Olympics. 
 

Canada will be sending a strong contingent of 318 athletes to Paris, 123 men and 195 women, consisting of many medal chances. Fencing, shooting, and cycling/wrestling were nice surprises, and diving, surfing, rowing, boxing were disappointments. Our Paris total surpasses our Rio total, but we’re well down on the 381 we qualified to Tokyo. Very disappointing number IMO considering I feel like we’ve got stronger in sport within the last couple of years, not to mention the fact that Russia has been banned from the majority of sports as well. 

 

Just a side note, I’m still young and my vocabulary isn’t the most advanced (half of the time I’m using the word “though” instead of alternatives ) so apologies for that. 

 

From a Canadian perspective we’ve experienced it all. The highs, the lows, the disappointments, the surprises, and of course the incredible performances by our athletes. Coming back from down 12 against Spain at the FIBA Basketball World Cup to FINALLY qualify our men’s basketball team, to the heartbreak of falling just short of qualifying in women’s volleyball at VNL in a head to head match with Netherlands (a month later, and I still can’t get over it), to Summer McIntosh’s 3 world records in a span of two years. I could go on and on…

 

Anyways, here’s the overview of every sport at the Olympics from a Canadian qualification perspective. 

 

Archery - Canada qualified one male and one female athlete, as expected. But that doesn’t mean that we haven’t experienced any disappointment in archery, as we blew two solid chances to qualify a men’s team, first at the Pan American Olympic Qualifier (where Duenas put his arrow into the 7s in the shoot-off and was struggling all match long) and second at the Final World Olympic Qualifier, after coming off a bronze at the World Cup in Yecheon just a couple of weeks earlier. 
 

Artistic Swimming - Qualifying a team here was unexpected, especially considering we had to beat the likes of Ukraine and Greece at the World Championships to do it. Back in October at the Pan Am Games, I had doubts that we’d even qualify in this sport. I suspect a lot of the credit has to go to Anna Voloshyna, who Artistic Swimming Canada hired as the new head coach of the team back in January 2024, she’s doing wonders with this team. 

 

Athletics - 51 is a solid number, but there’s been many injuries and late comebacks that have impacted our team size/strength. Also didn’t help that our National Championships was held on a shit track, and with poor weather overall. 

 

Injured

Khamica Bingham (Women’s 100m)
Julie Ann-Staehli (Women’s 5000m)

Justyn Knight (Men’s 5000m)

Trevor Hofbauer (Men’s Marathon)

 

Failed to Qualify

Natasha Wodak (Women’s Marathon)

Sage Walker (Women’s 400m Hurdles)

Aurora Rynda (Women’s 800m)

Django Lovett (Men’s High Jump)

Brooke Overholt (Women’s 400m Hurdles)

Gabriela De Bues Stafford (Women’s 5000m)

Jillian Weir (Women’s Hammer Throw)

Julia Tunks (Women’s Discus Throw)

Ben Priesner (Men’s Marathon)

Myles Misener Daley (Men’s 400m)
Will Floyd (Men’s 400m)

Michael Roth (Men’s 400m)

Kaila Butler (Women’s Hammer Throw)

Malik Metiever (Men’s 400m Hurdles)

Elizabeth Gleadle (Women’s Javelin Throw)

 

Retired

Brandon McBride (men’s 800m

 

Badminton - Besides rowing, this was one of our most disappointing qualification numbers. We only managed to qualify athletes in men’s singles, women’s singles, and men’s doubles, despite clearly being the dominant Pan American nation for the past few years. While it’s partially due to the Americans competing in a few more tournaments, our mixed doubles/women’s doubles pairings had a chance to overtake their counterparts with the gold medal at the Pan American Championships, but both bombed out in the semifinals. Nobody’s fault but themselves.

 

Basketball - If there was a sport that could be described as a rollercoaster of emotions this would be the sport. Or at least one of two. (more on that later)

 

Canada’s men’s team faced Spain in the second round of the FIBA Men’s World Cup for a spot at the Olympics for the first time since 2000, and were down by 12 heading into the 4th quarter. SGA and Brooks said no problem, combining for 24 out of Canada’s 27 points (SGA 13, Brooks 11) to secure Canada the W. After many close misses in previous qualifying tournaments, it was great to see them finally get the job done. 
 

As for the team announcement, pretty much exactly as expected. Kerr mugged off Wiggins by not allowing him to go to the Canada Basketball Olympic Training Camp, while Edey decided to focus on the NBA Summer League after getting drafted by the Memphis Grizzlies a couple of months ago. Sharpe is injured. 

 

Canada’s women’s team largely struggled at the FIBA Olympic Qualification Tournament, yet still managed to qualify for the Olympics. First, they had a chance to keep their Olympic dreams into their own hands, needing a win against Japan in their final match, but dropped it by a score of 86-82. That meant they had to rely on Spain defeating Hungary, and down by 21 with a little under 7 minutes to go in the 3rd period things were looking bleak. But against the odds, they came back and won. I was lost for words, I couldn’t believe what just happened. 
 

Would’ve liked to see youngster Toby Fournier on the roster instead of Sami Hill, but given her lack of international experience I can see why they left her off. Other than that, the exact roster that I envisioned. 
 

Canada’s women’s 3x3 team had two chances to qualify for the Olympics. First at the Universality Olympic Qualification Tournament 2, then the Olympic Qualification Tournament. Given their dominance on the Women’s Series, I didn’t have any doubt that they’d eventually book their ticket. They dropped the Olympic ticket match to Australia at their first opportunity, and Spain at their second opportunity. That’s when I started to get worried honestly (even though we were taking on Hungary, who are a quality team but notches below all three teams), because even though those are both medal contending teams I didn’t think it would have to come down to a last match. In the end, we ended up demolishing Hungary as expected, which was a major sense of relief. 

Boxing - Thibeault and Sanfords both got their ticket to Paris through the Pan American Games. Sanford’s performance in particular stood out to me, he didn’t have the easiest of draws as a mediocre boxer in the draw and very surprisingly dispatched all of his opponents. Another thing, Wright got robbed in her quarterfinal bout against Bravo, but given it was in Chile obviously the refs are going to be biased towards her. Cavanaugh, one of our best chances at a medal retired at the start of the year, due to her hating the sport and Barriere switched temporarily from pro to amateur for the First World Qualifier. Delgado lost her quota bout on a split decision to Cirkovic, and Barriere lost his quota bout in a close loss to Moindze. He withdrew from the Second World Qualifier to focus on pro boxing again. At the Second World Qualifier, Wright fought in the quota bout against a very winnable opponent in Bravo but got swept. 

Breaking - We qualified Philip Kim and no one else, as expected. I don’t really care about this “sport” though. 

Canoeing - Team of 15, which is more or less what I expected from the team. Nothing else to say here. 

Cycling - Team of 22, really satisfied with the number. Men’s and women’s team sprints had to work for their spot at the last Nations Cup, and we also won an unexpected quota in men’s BMX freestyle which will signify our Olympic debut in the sport which is nice. Obviously I had hope for Ryan Tougas at the World Championships, but he crashed in the semifinals and the Chilean won the quota instead. Same for a 3rd men’s and women’s quota in road cycling, and a 2nd men’s and women’s quota in men’s mountain biking. 

Diving - What a disaster. Not only do we fail to grab a women’s 3m synchro springboard quota, but we also fail to qualify a 2nd athlete individually. Vallee and Ware were world medalists individually in 2022/2023, and were just a few points shy of a synchro quota in 2022 but other than the Pan Am Games have struggled a lot since then. 

Equestrian - We qualified teams in eventing, jumping, and dressage as expected through the Pan American Games. What’s confusing though, is that none of our Canadian #1’s have been selected for the Olympic team. 

Football - Women’s team qualifying was never in doubt really, yet I was still somewhat concerned because of Jamaica’s brilliant performance at last years World Cup combined with Canada’s horrific tournament. 

Fencing -  We have 15 athletes qualified, entries in all individual events, and in three team events. Largest team in quite a while I’d say? Overall, super happy with how fencing has gone. 

Golf - We qualified 2 men and 2 women as usual. Nothing else to say here. Shame we couldn’t qualify 4 male golfers (a lot of them are decently ranked), but with the qualification system it was always going to be hard. 

Gymnastics - It required a LOT of luck (lots of falls), but our women’s team booked their ticket to Paris during their first opportunity at the 2022 World Championships, which was a huge surprise. Men’s team qualifying the year after was also cool to see, their last appearance at the Olympics was back in Beijing 2008.

Judo - We qualified 3 men, and 4 women, which is an increase by 1 on our total. More or less, most of the judoka that qualified were expected to make it to the Olympics. There was one surprise however, Portuondo Isasi came out of nowhere in 2024 to grab a team invitational quota, mainly due to her  unexpected silver medal at the Pan American Championships. 

Modern Pentathlon - That reminds me… Kelly Fitzsimmons was 27 POINTS ahead of 3rd ranked North American Davis for an Olympic quota entering the laser run. YES, 27!! I knew shooting wasn’t her forte based off of qualification, but with a lead that big I thought no way would she blow it. I thought wrong, her performance pissed me off. She was around 25 seconds slower than she was during the qualification round. I mean seriously, I could’ve done better than that. Wasn’t even expecting her to be in contention though. 

Rowing - No words. By far and away the most disappointing sport for Canada throughout the Olympic qualification period (only women’s eight and women’s double sculls qualified), and it’s not even close. That’s what Rowing Canada gets for firing Michelle Darvill I guess 

 

First time in history that Canada will not be present in men’s rowing at the Olympics. 

 

Special shout-out (… not) to our men’s eight who blew their opportunity to qualify for the Olympics at the Final Qualification Regatta. They were 2.67 seconds ahead of Italy for the final Olympic quota with only 500m to go, but faded badly and missed out by 0.01 

 

Rugby Sevens - Women’s team demolished the field at the North American Olympic Qualifier to qualify as expected. Men’s team was so close to joining them, losing the final 14-12 to United States. That was their best chance to qualify, and they didn’t take it. As for the women’s team, De Goede is out injured for Canada, which is a huge hit to our medal chances, and De Couvreur isn’t on our squad either (not sure why)
Sailing - We qualified boats in men’s 49er, women’s 49er FX, women’s ICLA6, and women’s kite as expected. For the first time in HISTORY however, we failed to qualify in men’s ICLA7. Ruitenberg was just a few spots off at World Championships I’m pretty sure. 

Shooting - Another unexpected outcome in terms of quotas, wasn’t expecting 3 (maybe 1 at best). Actually, it was really lucky that we won the quota in men’s 50m rifle 3 positions at the Pan American Championships, as Ikeda was 1.8 points behind a provisional quota spot with only one shot left (for one of them at least, and in shooting that’s a LOT), and then the Argentinian blew it with a 6.0.

Skateboarding - We equaled our Tokyo total, with 4. All quotas were as expected, with 3 in men’s street and 1 in women’s park. 

Surfing - More disappointment. Sanoa Olin qualified for Canada’s Olympic debut in this sport, but Erin Brooks and Cody Young both won’t be surfing the Tahiti waves. Young after just barely missing out on a spot at Tokyo, got called up as an alternate, but withdrew because he didn’t make it in time. He fell just shy again, and is 2nd alternate. Brooks won silver the year before, and is widely regarded as the next big young surfing talent, and bombed out in an early repechage. She’s been crushing it on the WSL Challenger Series, which makes her failing to qualify for the Olympics even more disappointing (need to think of some new adjectives, I’ve been using this word way too much)

Sport Climbing - Well, as soon as the two Americans in men’s and women’s combined failed to qualify through the World Championships, I knew our chances to qualify here were little to none. Was hoping for Yip to make her 2nd Olympics, after being diagnosed with alopecia earlier this year, but she wasn’t even close to qualifying.

Swimming - 29 athletes is more or less what I expected from Canada. Was hoping for either LePage or Branton to get a spot in the women’s 100m breaststroke (as Wog doesn’t have the OQT) so that they could experience the biggest level of sport but not really surprised that Swimming Canada left both off. I was also hoping that MacNeil would decline her spot in the women’s 100 freestyle, so that Oleksiak could race it individually but oh well. 

Table Tennis - In the most improbable of circumstances, somehow we managed to qualify a men’s team in table tennis at the Pan American Championships through a games won tiebreaker. Mo Zhang also qualified as expected. Wish Ivy Liao could’ve qualified in women’s singles as well through the Pan American Olympic Qualifier, but it was always going to be a tossup given how even the field was. 

Taekwondo - Skylar Park qualified through the Olympic Rankings as expected. During the Pan American Qualification Tournament, there’s things that went in our favor and things that did not. Kafadar robbed the Colombian athlete, and the Argentinian athlete robbed Park. Keep in mind I don’t follow taekwondo, but I know a bit about the rules and the Argentinian should’ve been given a penalty. 

Tennis - Auger-Aliassime, Dabrowski, Andresscu, and Fernandez all qualified as expected. Raonic is the only unexpected name, but given he’s been injured a lot the last few years I knew it was a possibility that he could use his PR. There was a bit of a letdown though, Marino was one of the highest ranked players by a mile at the Pan American Games and yet went out in the semifinals. Then there’s Shapo, who chose to focus on the tour and preparing for the hard court season. 

Triathlon - No full team unlike in Tokyo. Jamnicky was in a quota position for quite a while but got bumped out a few events before the end of the qualification period. Her bad/mediocre results really didn’t help her. 
Weightlifting - Charron booked her ticket to Paris to absolutely no one’s surprise. Even though Santavy did as well, I thought it would’ve been easier for him to qualify. I thought he would’ve been in a higher position in the Olympic Rankings and not had to rely on any potential reallocations. 

Wrestling - 6 qualified was well above my expectations. Only real regret I have is Morais missing out on a quota at the Pan American Olympic Qualifier, losing by fall after leading 9-4 (?) in the quarterfinals but given that she qualified later on at the World Olympic Qualifier it’s not that important. 

Volleyball - Go back two years, and you’ll hear me saying “we have chance at a quota in women’s volleyball”. Despite not qualifying, oh did the girls prove me wrong. I started following our women’s volleyball team back in 2022, during the start of the World Championships. That tournament they upset a couple of their opponents, and it made me believe that yes, they do have the potential to make it to Paris. Even though they just barely missed out on two separate occasions, first at the Olympic Qualifier (if they had taken one more set against Dominican Republic, they would’ve qualified), and second in that direct head to head match against Netherlands at VNL (could’ve been avoided had they won against Serbia),  I’m so proud of the team for how well they fought. They’ve been on a meteoric rise ever since then, and I’m hoping it can translate into Olympic qualification for LA 2028. This team failing to qualify still stings though, even a little over a month later. 
 

As far as the men’s volleyball team goes, it was also a mental roller coaster. Back in late 2022 we hired Tuomas Sammelvuo as our head coach. Sammelvuo only had a few weeks with the team before the start of VNL (due to club season volleyball), where we were absolutely dreadful going 3-9. I first started to see some major signs of improvement within the team at the Continental Championships, where we beat Cuba in a 5 set thriller in the semifinals and lost to United States in 3 very tight sets in the final. Coming into the Olympic Qualifier, I thought a top 3 finish was possible, and maybe an outside chance at a quota, but I didn’t think it would actually happen. After beating Argentina in 4, Netherlands in 5, and a loss to Poland in 5, you would think that they’re well on their way to Olympic qualification having gotten all of their “hard” matches out of the way, but WRONG!! Belgium was also having themselves a great tournament, I would say the tournament of their lives, and it was likely going to come down to the head to head between the two. That match came, and what a time to have your worst game. Canada’s performance was so pathetic, especially given the stakes, that I stopped watching during the 4th set. I was pissed. Fun (or not so fun…) fact, I still have nightmares about that match against Belgium. That’s how horribly it went. All Belgium had to do was win against Bulgaria and they were in. I knew it was over. However, I still had to hold on to that little bit of faith. I of course had to watch the match on VBTV, while also constantly refreshing scores on Flashscore, and when Belgium went 2-1 up (after being 1-0 down) my spirits deflated. Bulgaria ended up taking set 4, and started off set 5 8-4 up. That’s when I started to believe. 8-8. After Bulgaria blew their second multi point lead at 12-9, and third at 13-11, I started to get worried again. But MP arrived for Bulgaria, and Penchev blocked Reggers to seal the deal. I was so fucking stoked that I was fist pumping for a good 10 minutes, and yelled “LET’S FUCKING GOOOOOO” a few times as well  (I think I might have woke up my dad)

 

Eshenko and Schnitzer are the most notable absences on the Olympic roster due to injury. Eshenko had a great VNL up until that point, such a shame. Of course, there’s also names that could’ve made an impact but have retired from the national team, such as Perrin and Sclater (Sammelvuo I love you man, but come on)

 

@orangeman

 

Waterpolo - Lastly, waterpolo. During last years World Championships, when US (who have been dominant in women’s waterpolo for quite a while now) failed to qualify for the Olympics, I knew it would come down to this years World Championships. The team that I thought we’d be facing off against for the quota Greece, qualified at Europeans. It ended up coming down to Hungary, Italy, Canada for 2 Olympic spots at this years World Championships, and I had little hope. As soon as we lost to Italy for 7th, I went straight to bed thinking it was a waste of my time, but then in a sudden turn of events South Africa ended up declining their continental quota and Canada ended up qualifying. 

 

Handball and field hockey (we’ve regressed a lot in this sport since qualifying one almost two teams to Tokyo), and given we had no chance at all to qualify in either, didn’t feel the need to mention them. 

Also in athletics, I’ll point out that while we didn’t qualify as many marathoners as I had hoped for, we did qualify in the women’s 4x100m relay and the mixed team race walk which were pleasant surprises 

 

About the Canadian Olympic medal overview, I’ve been really busy with lots of stuff trying to prepare for the Olympics, lots of personal stuff, lots of chores and work, and lots of prediction contests so it might be out a bit later than I initially envisioned. 

[Josh 10,450]

Canadian Olympic Medal Chances Overview

 

We’re now a couple of days out from the Olympics, and it’s time for a medal overview (you can probably tell I got lazy at times ) 

 

Canada is sending what could possibly be our strongest team yet, with a bunch of medal contenders, and what could be the swimmer of the Olympics in McIntosh. Here’s where Canada could win medals in Paris, and an overview of my picks. 

 

Archery - Eric Peters is the current #5, having won a surprise silver at last years World Championships. Archery is a very unpredictable sport though, especially during the Olympics so who knows. 
Artistic Swimming - I know absolutely nothing about this “sport”, but I believe Lamothe/Simoneau in duet and our team will be medal contenders? They’ve been performing quite well at the last few World Cups. 

Athletics - As always, athletics will likely be one of the two sports making up the majority of our medal haul. This time around our team is even stronger, with multiple world medalists and Olympic champions looking to make it onto the podium.

 

First of all, let’s start off with Ethan Katzberg in men’s hammer throw. He’s the reigning World Champion, has the world lead, produced a monster throw of 84.18m in Nairobi, and has the four best marks of the year, including a further three over 81m. None of his competitors have been over 81m so far this season. Next, we have Camryn Rogers in women’s hammer throw. She’ll be coming into the Olympics as the slight favourite over Price for gold with Andersen fouling out at the US Olympic Trials, as the reigning World Champion (also won silver the year before), while also having thrown the two furthest marks of the year. Besides those two, the rest of the field is highly inconsistent. Sarah Mitton in women’s shot put is another one of our field contenders. She’s the reigning world silver medalist, and has been over 20m in four competitions this season, including a massive 20.68m NR at the Throws U Series in May. Wrapping up the field events, we have Alysha Newman in women’s pole vault. Looking at her recent marks you might see this as a bit of a stretch, but the hight is there she just can’t seem to find the technique. Switching over to the track, I’ll start off with the “always showing up” Andre DeGrasse, who has won six Olympic medals in six events so far, despite not producing any eye popping times in season like the rest of the athletes do. He’ll be in contention in the men’s 100m and men’s 200m (his specialty event), and will anchor the exact same men’s 4x100m relay that won gold at the World Championships in 2022 and silver at Tokyo 2020, although with the times that have been produced this year it’ll likely take a NR to podium in the 100m. Speaking about relays, our women’s 4x400m relay will look to FINALLY get on the podium, having finished 4th at just about every single international competition. Marco Arop is the reigning World Champion in the men’s 800m, but despite him being just off his PB at the recent Monaco Diamond League with a 1:42.93 (if you watch the race video, he was in front by a lot but faded badly), he’ll be coming into the Olympics as the 10th fastest, and about a second slower than Wanyonyi, Tual, and Sedjati. So yeah, very concerning. Christopher Morales-Williams is the third fastest in the world this season in the men’s 400m with 44.05, but I’d probably classify him as an outside chance, as NCAA athletes rarely ever medal at the Olympics with their tiring as fuck in season schedules. And finally, to cap off the field events, we have Mo Ahmed in the men’s 5000m (his specialty event, he’s the reigning Olympic silver medalist) and men’s 10000m. It’s hard to gauge where he’s at given he rarely races, but he should be right in the mix. For the multi events, we have reigning Olympic Champion and reigning World Championships silver medalist in the decathlon Damian Warner who has said that he’s in the “form of his life”, despite being 37 years old. Excited to see what he’ll do in Paris, hopefully he can get through it injury free unlike in Eugene. Lastly, Evan Dunfee in the men’s 20km race walk, who is the reigning Olympic bronze medalist in the 50km race walk (and will be for a while, as it got axed from the Olympic program), finished 4th at last years World Championships (what a surprise… not), and has produced his second and third fastest marks this season, I could see him breaking his NR if the weather and conditions allows it. Unfortunately Pierce LePage, the reigning World Champion in the decathlon had to withdraw from the Olympics recently as he’s not in competitive form to even be competitive due to countless injuries (including a disc herniation), and it was either “compete and get 7000 points… or not” or “get a surgery done for his back and focus on preparing for next season”)

Basketball - Men’s basketball team beat France in an exhibition by double digits a couple of days ago, which bodes well for Paris. We also won bronze at the World Cup last year. Women’s basketball team has underperformed at past two Olympics, despite coming into each as medal contenders. Given how much they struggled during the Olympic Qualifying Tournament, and even their exhibition games against Spain and Belgium (against Belgium they got demolished, however both were without our 4 WNBA stars), they’re on the outside looking in.  

3x3 Basketball - Women’s team won silver at the World Cup in 2022, made it to the quarterfinals in 2023, and have rarely lost tournaments in the last few years. This year, the quartet played tournaments in Springfield and Edmonton (in addition to the OQT’s of course) and won both. Edmonton was a couple of weeks ago in July, and they absolutely demolished their opponents (19-10, 21-10, 21-5, 21-10, 21-11) so they look like they’re in good form. There’s many solid teams going to the Olympics in this sport nonetheless, none of the matches will be easy. We’re a gold contender but I wouldn’t be surprised to see us miss the podium entirely. 

Boxing - Tammara Thibeault is coming into the Olympics as the undisputed favourite for gold, she hasn’t lost since Tokyo. She won gold at the Commonwealth Games in 2022,  gold at World Championships in 2022 (2024 one was boycotted by many nations including Canada), and gold at the Pan American Games in 2023, in addition to winning gold this April at the Pueblo World Boxing Cup defeating all of her opponents 5-0 (including Olympic bronze medalist  Qian). Wyatt Sanford might be a dark-horse for a medal, he 5-0’d all of his opponents on route to gold at the Pan American Games including a very impressive win over 3x Olympic medalist Alvarez, although hard to judge his form since he hasn’t competed at all this year. Could see him missing the podium at the same time. 

Breaking - Philip Kim is about as close to a podium lock as can be in this sport. Three straight World Championships medals, silver in 2021, gold in 2022, and silver again in 2023, and he’s also the reigning Pan American Games gold medalist/Pan American Champion. But as I’ve mentioned about 100000 times, I really don’t care. 

Canoeing - Majority of our chances will come in women’s canoe, with Katie Vincent and Sophia Jensen in women’s C1-200m and Vincent/Sloan MacKenzie in women’s C2-500m. At the World Cup in Szeged back in May, Vincent and Jensen went 1-2 and Vincent/MacKenzie won silver. Michelle Russell who was 4th in women’s K1-500m, is also in with a shot at a medal. 

Cycling - In road cycling, Alison Jackson in women’s road race, Michael Woods/Derek Gee in men’s road race, all have small outside chances at a medal. On the track, we have reigning Olympic champion in women’s sprint Kelsey Mitchell, reigning Olympic bronze medalist in women’s keirin Lauriane Genest, and Dylan Bibic in men’s omnium. Genest and Bibic seems way more likely. Genest won bronze in women’s keirin at Adelaide and Milton, while Bibic finished 4th at Milton and won gold at Adelaide in men’s omnium. 

Diving - Caeli McKay, Rylan Wiens and Nathan Zsombor-Murray are all really talented divers. Unfortunately, their ceiling individually looks to be bronze at best (China divers will likely go 1-2, the only event where it’s precarious is men’s 10m), which means Canada’s best chances will come in synchro. Wiens/Zsombor-Murray won bronze at the World Championships in Budapest, and finished 6th at the World Championships in Doha, and McKay/Kate Miller won silver at the World Cup in Hamburg and the World Cup Super Final in Xi’an (albeit in somewhat depleted fields)

Football - Women’s team has won medals at the last three Olympics. It’ll be tough to make it 4 in a row, but this group has the potential to do it. As far as form goes, the She Believs Cup went well, but the exhibition games were meh. 

Fencing - Canada has never won a medal in Olympic history. Despite that, we have a shot at making history. First, Jessica Guo and Eleanor Harvey in women’s foil. Guo is ranked #8 in the world (will be #7 at the Olympics), won bronze at the Pan American Championships (lost 15-12 to #1 and reigning Olympic champion Kiefer, she was 13-12 down at one point), and has produced top 10 finishes in all eight of her WC/Grand Prix competitions this season (two bronze medals in Dec 2023/Jan 2024). Harvey, is ranked #14 in the world (will be #12 at the Olympics), won silver at the Pan American Championships (defeating #10 Dubrovich and #13 Weintraub), and has produced four top 10 finishes in her eight WC/Grand Prixs this season. Ruien Xiao is a longshot, having won bronze at the Vancouver WC in addition to having one top 25 finish this season (has been largely inconsistent outside of that)

Golf - Corey Conners has 7 top 20 finishes in 18 events this year, with 3 top 10 finishes. 

Gymnastics - Another sport that I don’t follow, but Ellie Black (women’s all around and balance beam), Felix Dolci (men’s floor) should both have decent chances. They won’t be among the favourites, but they’re not too far either. Women’s team has a minuscule chance at a medal, we’ll need a bunch of mistakes from other teams to have any chance (like at Birmingham in 2022)

Judo - World #1 in women’s 57kg  (by a fair bit actually) Christa Deguchi won gold at the World Championships in 2023, and silver in 2024 after a controversial decision in the final against Huh. She’s made the podium in all seven events she’s competed in so far this season, including 3 Grand Slam gold medals, 1 silver medal, and 1 bronze medal, although she did lose in the final to Silva at the Pan American Championships. Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard is another Canadian World #1 in the women’s 63kg category, is the reigning Olympic bronze medalist, and has won two Grand Slam medals this season (silver in Baku, gold in Tbilisi) but finished 7th and 5th at the last two World Championships (2024 had a weaker than usual field), and 7th at the Tokyo and Antalya Grand Slams. So the momentum doesn’t seem to be there. Now moving on to the men, World #3 in men’s -100kg Shady El-Nahas is probably our biggest medal hope, he’s been on the podium in all four of his competitions this season, including silver at this years World Championships (withdrew from the final due to injury), and gold at the Pan American Championships, in addition to two silver medals at the Antalya/Tbilisi Grand Slams. World #5 Francois-Gauthier Drapeau has recorded top 5 finishes in men’s 81kg at all four of the competitions he’s competed in this season, including bronze at the Paris Grand Slam and silver at the Antalya Grand Slam, and won a silver medal at the Pan American Championships. Arthur Margelidon in men’s 73kg also has a chance at medaling this summer, winning bronze at the Baku Grand Slam and gold at the Pan American Championships. 

Rowing -  Women’s eight are the reigning Olympic champion, and won gold at the Lucerne World Cup this year. They did however finish only 5th at the World Championships in 2023. Jill Moffatt/Jenny Casson in women’s lightweight double sculls finished 4th at the World Championships, and 5th/4th at the Varese/Lucerne World Cups. 

Rugby Sevens - This year on the HSBC SVNS World Series, our women’s team finished 7th in Perth, 3rd in Vancouver, 4th in Los Angeles, 6th in Hong Kong, 7th in Singapore, and 4th at the Final in Madrid. 
Sailing - Sarah Douglas finished 6th in women’s ICLA6 at Tokyo 2020. Douglas finished 5th at the Paris Olympics Test Event in 2023, 23rd at the World Championships, 26th at the World Championships in 2024, and 17th at the Princess Sofia Regatta. Georgia/Antonia Lewin-Lafrance finished 20th at the Paris Olympic Test Event in 2023, 10th at the European Championships in 2023 (it was open entry), 10th at the World Championships in 2023, 8th at the World Championships in 2024, and 4th at the Princess Sofia Regatta. Lewin-Lafrance sisters have been more consistent and have the momentum, but Douglas finished higher at the Paris Olympic Test Event, honestly I don’t know who’s more likely to podium.

Skateboarding - Outside chance with Cordano Russell in men’s street, as he was 4th at last years World Championships in Tokyo. This year, he finished 12th at WST Dubai, 23rd at OQS Shanghai, and 10th at OQS Budapest. 

Surfing - Sanoa charged Chopes when she went to Tahiti back in September according to Surf Canada’s Instagram admin, obviously she’s not among the favourites and I’d be surprised to see her medal but it wouldn’t be a huge shock. 
Triathlon - Charles Paquet has recorded top 10 finishes in both of his WTCS events so far this season. 5th in Yokohama, and 7th in Cagliari. He’ll be entering Paris with a good chance at a medal. 

Swimming - The common trend in the past two Olympics, and the most recent (non-bathtub) World Championships is that we won 6 medals in each. I see us improving on that number in Paris. We’ll start off with the one the only Summer McIntosh, who has the potential for four individual medals. She’s what you would call a “lock” in the 400m individual medley (her PB is the WR that she set in May, around 6 seconds faster than the rest of the field), the marginal gold medal favourite in the 200m butterfly (2x World Champion in both, reigning in my books), the silver medal favourite in the 400m freestyle (… or she could finish 4th again like Worlds last year), and one of four medal contenders in the 200m individual medley. Then we have the reigning Olympic champion in the 100m butterfly Maggie MacNeil, she’ll have her work cut out for her if she wants to have any chance at defending it however, with Walsh recording the two fastest times in history (by at least a few tenths) at the US Olympic Trials. The ever consistent Kylie Masse is yet again expected to be contending for medals in the 100m backstroke and 200m backstroke, though given the gap between her and McKeown/Smith it’s unlikely that we’ll be seeing her win anything better than a bronze. On the plus side, barring an unexpected surprise, it looks like it’ll be a dogfight between her and the second American in each event for bronze. As for the relays, the women’s 4x200m freestyle relay is our best bet, but we’ll either need Oleksiak and Ruck in 1:57ish form, or one of them and Brousseau dropping a whole bunch of time. I’d also give chances to the women’s 4x100m medley relay (really depends on Angus), and women’s 4x200m freestyle relay (really depends on Ruck, as Oleksiak has said “I’ve been going times I’ve never been seeing myself go in training”). For the men, the main star is Josh Liendo, who has medal chances in the 50m freestyle, 100m freestyle, and 100m butterfly (his most likely event to medal in, having won bronze at Worlds in 2022 and silver at Worlds in 2023). He went 50.06 in the 100m butterfly, 21.48 in the 50m freestyle, and 47.55 in the 100m freestyle at the Canadian Olympic Trials, all NR’s. Illya Kharun is another medal contender in 200m butterfly, although he had a mediocre Trials and was around 6/10ths off his NR from Fukuoka 2023. Possible that he was still in heavy training, given the quality of the field. “Reigning World Champion” Finlay Knox reset his NR in the 200m individual medley at the Canadian Trials with a blistering 1:56.07. That would’ve been good enough for bronze at Fukuoka 2023. Still think he’ll need to shave a couple of tenths off his PB in order to medal. Men’s 4x100m relay would be an outside chance, nevertheless not totally impossible. 

Taekwondo - Hard to assess her medal potential given she’s rarely competed this year, but she won gold at the Grand Prix in Taiyuan late last year and is top 5 in the World Rankings so…

Tennis - Our best chance will probably come in women’s doubles. Clay is probably Dabrowski’s worst surface, but Fernandez has made deep runs at clay court tournaments in doubles and they both have chemistry as they played together during Billie Jean King Cup. Although the surface was hard in that instance. Leylah Fernandez has an outside chance at a medal in women’s singles, she’s made a run at Roland Garros before but is way too inconsistent to be anything more than that. 
Weightlifting - Maude Charron is in great form at the moment, improving her NR to 236kg at the Phuket World Cup. She’ll be in contention for silver and bronze, as China chose this weightclass as one of their three 

Wrestling - According to @Roamingrover86 , Morais, Di Stasio, and Godinez (women’s 62kg) all have medal chances, but it largely depends on the draw. Di Stasio has an easier path as a seed than Godinez. 

Volleyball - Men’s team as an extremely outside chance at a medal, but honestly I don’t see it happening. After going 4-0 during the final week of VNL, I thought OK maybe we can do it… until we lost to Japan in 3 during the quarterfinals and a couple of days ago lost in 4 to France in an exhibition. In normal circumstances that would be a okay result, but only 4 sets were played. France also rotated their players a bunch (we did too, but not as much), so yeah not a good result. They might be able to make it out of group, but realistically speaking that’s probably the best we can hope for. 

Beach Volleyball - Melissa Humana-Parades/Brandie Wilkerson are ranked 3rd in the world, but despite that I don’t see them medaling at the Olympics. I’m not counting them out or anything, but it feels like they suffer some sort of mental block as they always go out during the quarterfinals of Elite16’s, even though a lot of the time they get “easy draws”. I watch a lot of beach volleyball, and from what I can see there seems to be a problem with Mel’s sideout game, it hasn’t been very consistent. Hopefully she can work a lot on it in training heading into the Olympics. 

 

Prediction (FYI this was done a while ago, every day my opinion changes on how many medals I think we’ll win)

Athletics - 7, 2 G/2 S/3 B: Warner (decathlon - gold), DeGrasse (men’s 200m - silver), men’s 4x100m relay (bronze), Mitton (women’s shot put - bronze), Katzberg (men’s hammer throw - gold), Rogers (women’s hammer throw -silver), Dunfee (men’s 20km race walk - bronze)

Breaking - 1, 1 G: Kim (b-boys- gold)

Boxing - 2, 1 G/1 B: Thibeault (women’s 75kg - gold), Sanford (men’s 63.5kg - bronze)

Cycling - 1, 1 S: Bibic (men’s omnium - bronze)

Canoeing - 2, 1 S, 1 B: Vincent (women’s C1-200m - bronze), Vincent/MacKenzie (women’s C2-500m - silver)

Swimming - 8, 2 G, 2 S, 4 B: Liendo (men’s 100m butterfly - silver), McIntosh (women’s 400m individual medley - gold), McIntosh (women’s 200m butterfly - gold), McIntosh (women’s 400m freestyle - silver), McIntosh (women’s 200m individual medley - bronze), MacNeil (women’s 100m butterfly - bronze), Masse (women’s 200m backstroke - bronze), women’s 4x200m freestyle relay (bronze)
Weightlifting - 1, 1 B: Charron (Women’s 64kg - bronze)

Judo - 2, 1 G, 1 B: Deguchi (women’s 57kg - gold), El-Nahas (men’s 100kg - bronze)

Wrestling - 1, 1 B: Di Stasio (women’s 76kg - silver)

Gymnastics - 1, 1 B: Dolci (men’s floor - bronze)

3x3 Basketball - 1, 1 B: women’s tournament

Edited July 22 by Josh

[Josh 10,450]

Good fucking grief, somehow I always find a way to make these overviews as long as possible 

[intoronto 5,622]

@JoshYou don't think the men's basketball has a chance?

[Josh 10,450]

1 minute ago, intoronto said:

@JoshYou don't think the men's basketball has a chance?

You might want to read that again, I’m talking about the women’s team. Men’s team is probably the 2nd most likely team to medal behind the US.
 

They almost blew their 20 point lead against Puerto Rico though (I’m pretty sure you were watching as well, but they got it down to 6 at some point), so I’m not that convinced. On the plus side, SGA was pretty much a non-factor in terms of scoring so at least the depth is there for the guys to step up.  

[intoronto 5,622]

21 minutes ago, Josh said:

You might want to read that again, I’m talking about the women’s team. Men’s team is probably the 2nd most likely team to medal behind the US.
 

They almost blew their 20 point lead against Puerto Rico though (I’m pretty sure you were watching as well, but they got it down to 6 at some point), so I’m not that convinced. On the plus side, SGA was pretty much a non-factor in terms of scoring so at least the depth is there for the guys to step up.  

It's because I didn't see it under your list of medalists 

[Josh 10,450]

1 minute ago, intoronto said:

It's because I didn't see it under your list of medalists 

I just don’t have them medaling 

 

You can’t pick all of your medal chances to make the podium, and the competition is tough.