Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[LDOG 2,418]

10 hours ago, Josh said:

Back in August 2022 I made predictions on which events Team Canada would qualify in (Totally unrealistic ), but since Olympic Qualification has really been ramping up recently I’ve decided to do an in-depth updated version.

 

If any of you disagree with any of this, then please reply with changes you would make. 

 

Canada  (T: 339-372 athletes)

 

Archery (2) - Crispin Duenas hasn’t competed since the Tokyo Olympics. If he’s gonna make a run for Paris (Crazily enough his 5th straight Olympics if he can qualify) then I have him securing a quota, otherwise it’ll probably go to Eric Peters. Stephanie Barrett is a safe bet for a quota on the women’s side.

 

Athletics (64) - 

 

Men’s Events (25)

 

100m - Andre DeGrasse, Aaron Brown, Jerome Blake

 

200m - Andre DeGrasse, Aaron Brown, Jerome Blake

 

800m - Marco Arop, Brandon McBride

 

1500m - William Paulson, Charles Philibert-Thiboutot, Cameron Proceviat

 

5000m - Justyn Knight, Mo Ahmed, Charles Philibert-Thiboutot

 

10000m - Mo Ahmed

 

Marathon - Cam Levins, Rory Linkletter, Ben Priesner/Trevor Hofbauer

 

400m Hurdles - Malik Metivier

 

3000m Steeplechase - John Gay, Matthew Hughes, Ryan Smeeton

 

High Jump - Django Lovett

 

Hammer Throw - Adam Keenan, Ethan Katzburg, Rowan Hamilton

 

4x100m Relay - Andre DeGrasse, Aaron Brown, Brendon Rodney, Jerome Blake

 

Decathlon - Pierce LePage, Damian Warner

 

20km Race Walk - Evan Dunfee

 

Women’s Events (39) 

 

100m - Khamica Bingham, Crystal Emmanuel

 

200m - Natassha McDonald, Lauren Gale

 

400m - Natassha McDonald, Kyra Constantine

 

800m - Lindsay Butterworth, Madeline Kelly, Savannah Sutherland/Jazz Shukla/Melissa Bishop-Nriagu

 

1500m - Gabriella De-Bues Stafford, Lucia Stafford 

 

5000m - Julie-Ann Staehli, Kate Van Buskirk, Andrea Seccafien

 

10000m - Andrea Seccafien, Leslie Sexton 

 

100m Hurdles - Michelle Harrison, Mariam Abdul-Rashid

 

400m Hurdles- Noelle Montcalm, Sage Watson

 

3000m Steeplechase- Regan Yee, Ceili McCabe, Genevieve Lalonde

 

Marathon- Malindi Elmore, Natascha Wodak, Dayna Pidhoresky

 

Pole Vault- Alysha Newman, Anicka Newell

 

Long Jump- Christabel Nettey

 

Triple Jump- Mikeisha Welcome

 

Shot Put- Sarah Mitton, Brittany Crew

 

Discus Throw- Trinity Tutti

 

Hammer Throw- Camryn Rogers, Jillian Weir

 

Javelin Throw- Elizabeth Gleadle

 

Heptathlon- Georgia Ellenwood/Nicole Ostertag 

4x400m Relay- Kyra Constantine, Sage Watson, Natassha McDonald, Aiyanna Stiverne (A few of Madeline Price, Micha Powell, Alicia Brown for heats)

 

Artistic Swimming (8) - Unlike last Olympics I don’t have us securing qualification at the 2023 Pan-Am Games as United States have surpassed us in terms of recent success. Still I think we can qualify at the 2024 World Championships. 

 

Badminton (8) - Michelle Li in women’s singles. Brian Yang in men’s singles. Rachel Honderich/Kristen Tsai in women’s doubles. Adam Dong/Nyl Yakura in men’s doubles. Ty Lindeman/Josephine Wu in mixed doubles

 

Given the tough selection criteria, top 16 (singles), top 8 (doubles) the only semi-realistic chance at qualifying a second berth would be Wendy Zhang. Don’t see it happening. 

 

Basketball (28) - With Argentina not qualifying for the 2023 FIBA World Cup, its highly likely that we’ll get the second Americas spot (Behind United States) for Paris 2024. Women’s 3x3 team was dominant last year, and is a safe bet to qualify. Our women’s team will probably qualify too.  

 

Beach Volleyball (4-6) - Brandie/Melissa and Pavan/Bukovec in the women’s tournament. Maybe Schacter/Dearing through the NORCECA Olympic Qualification Tournament?? It’s all dependant on whether United States qualifies their two pairs through the world rankings. 

 

Boxing (5) - 

Tammara Thibeault- Women’s 75kg

Charlie Cavanaugh- Women’s 66kg

Priyanka Dhillon- Women’s 50kg

Scarlett Delgado- Women’s 54kg Caroline Veyre- Women’s 57kg

 

I’m predicting no male athletes will qualify this time with Keoma-Ali Al-Ahmadieh (Men’s 57kg) and Wyatt Sanford (Men’s 63.5kg) just missing out. 

 

Breaking (1-2) - Phil Wizard is of the worlds best b-boys he should qualify. Tiffany Leung also has a chance, but her only chance will be through the Olympic Qualifier Series. 
 

Canoe: Sprint/Slalom (16) - Don’t know the boats situation, but I’ll try my best. 

 

Women’s Canoe Sprint Events (13) 

Katie Vincent - C-1 200m / C-2 500m 

Sophia Jensen - C-1 200m / C-2 500m

Toshka Besharah-Hrebacka - K-2 500m / K-4 500m 

Adreanne Langlois - Women’s K-2 500m / K-4 500m

Michelle Russell -  Women’s K-1 500m

Riley Melanson - Women’s K-4 500m

Natalie Davidson -  Women’s K-4 500m

 

Nicholas Mateev - Men’s K-4 500m, Men’s K-2 500m

Simon McTavish - Men’s K-4 500m, Men’s K-2 500m 

Pierre-Luc Poulin - Men’s K-4 500m

Laurent Lavigne - Men’s K-4 500m

Connor Fitzpatrick - Men’s C-1 1000m

Roland Varga - Men’s C-1 1000m

 

Canoe Slalom (3)

Alex Baldoni - Men’s C-1, Men’s KX-1

Lois Betteridge- Women’s C-1

Florence Mateu - Women’s K-1

 

Cycling (19) - 

 

Track Cycling (15) 

Kelsey Mitchell- Women’s Sprint, Women’s Keirin, Women’s Team Sprint

Lauriane Genest- Women’s Sprint, Women’s Keirin, Women’s Team Sprint

Sarah Orban- Women’s Team Sprint

Allison Beveridge- Women’s Omnium

Maggie Coles-Lyster- Women’s Omnium, Women’s Madison

Sarah Van Dam- Women’s Madison

Women’s Team Pursuit

 

Dylan Bibic- Men’s Omnium, Men’s Madison

Nick Wammes- Men’s Sprint, Men’s Keirin, Men’s Team Sprint

Ryan Dodyk- Men’s Sprint, Men’s Team Sprint

James Hedgcock- Men’s Keirin, Men’s Team Sprint 

Mathias Guillemette- Men’s Madison

 

Road Cycling (4)

Leah Kirchmann - Women’s Time Trial

Alison Jackson - Women’s Road Race/ Women’s Time Trial

Michael Woods- Men’s Road Race

Hugo Houle- Men’s Road Race/Men’s Time Trial

 

Mountain Biking (2)

Carter Woods- Men’s Cross-Country

Emily Batty- Women’s Cross-Country

 

BMX Racing (3)

James Palmer- Men’s Race

Molly Simpson- Women’s Race
Drew Mechielsen/Teigen Pascual- Women’s Race

 

BMX Freestyle (1)

Maxime Chalifour- Men’s Park 

 

Diving (7-8) - 

 

Bryden Hattie/Cedric Fofana/Vincent Riendeau- Men’s 3m Springboard

Nathan Zsombor-Murray- Men’s 10m Platform, Men’s 10m Syncronized Platform

Rylan Wiens- Men’s 10m Platform, Men’s 10m Syncronized Platform

 

Mia Valee- Women’s 3m Springboard, Women’s 10m Syncronized Springboard

Margo Erlam- Women’s 3m Springboard (Women’s Syncronized 3m Springboard if Melissa isn’t aiming to make a run for Paris 2024)

Melissa Citrini- Women’s Syncronized 3m Springboard (If she’s aiming to make a run for Paris 2024)

Caeli McKay- Women’s 10m Platform, Women’s 10m Syncronized Platform

Celina Toth- Women’s 10m Platform, Women’s 10m Syncronized Platform 

 

Notably, Pamela Ware misses out on qualification. 

 

Equestrian (9) - Should qualify a full team (Jumping, Eventing, Dressage) anything less will be a disappointment.

 

Fencing (10) - 

 

Eleanor Harvey - Women’s Foil, Women’s Team Foil

Jessica Guo - Women’s Foil, Women’s Team Foil

Kelliegh Ryan - Women’s Foil, Women’s Team Foil

Sabrina Fang - Women’s Team Foil

Alexandre Verett/Leonora MacKinnon - Women’s Epee

Gabriella Page - Women’s Sabre 

 

Maximilien Van Haaster - Men’s Foil, Men’s Team Foil

Blake Brozus - Men’s Foil, Men’s Team Foil

Eli Schenkel - Men’s Foil, Men’s Team Foil

Fares Arfa - Men’s Sabre 

 

Football (18) - All we have to do is beat Jamaica in a two legged playoff series and our women’s team is off to Paris. Should be doable. Men’s team has no chance, due to them blowing their only chance at the CONCACAF U20 Championships. 

Golf (4) -
Brooke Henderson - Women’s Stroke Play

Alena Sharp - Women’s Stroke Play

Adam Svensson - Men’s Stroke Play

Correy Conners - Men’s Stroke Play

 

Artistic Gymnastics (14) - 

Women’s Team already secured qualification by virtue of their 3rd place finish at the 2022 Worlds. Men’s Team (Although not qualified yet) had a brilliant result last year, and could possibly qualify

 

Artistic Gymnastics (11)

Women’s Team- Ellie Black, Shallon Olsen, Emma Spence, Sydney Turner

Ellie Black - Women’s Balance Beam, Women’s All-Around

Brooklyn Moors - Women’s All Around, Women’s Floor

Shallon Olsen - Women’s Vault

Laurie Denoumee - Women’s Vault

 

Denelle Pendrick misses out on qualification. 

 

Men’s Team - Felix Dolci, William Emard, Rene Cournoyer, Chris Kaji, Jason Rampersad. Idk I don’t follow Gymnastics very much 

 

Trampoline Gymnastics (3)

Jermey Chartier - Men’s Event

Sophiane Methot - Women’s Event

Samantha Smith - Women’s Event

Judo (7) - 

Kelly Deguchi - Women’s -52kg 

Jessica Klimkait - Women’s -57kg, Team Event

Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard - Women’s -63kg, Team Event

Coralie Godbout - Team Event

 

Arthur Margelidon - Men’s -73kg, Team Event

Francois Gauthier-Drapeau - Men’s -81kg, Team Event

Kyle Reyes - Men’s -100kg, Team Event 

 

Notably, Christa Deguchi and Shady El Nahas miss out. 
 

Rowing (25-30) - 

 

Don’t know anything about the boating situation for Team Canada, so I’ll just use numbers from Tokyo/Rio and the recent WCHs to do my predictions. We should qualify a fair few amount of athletes here. 
 

Rugby 7s (13-26) -  

 

Considering United States is pretty much almost qualified through the World Series, nothing is stopping our women’s team from securing a quota at the RAN 7s Qualification Tournament, especially since we’re hosting it. Both Argentina, and United States have to qualify for Paris 2024 through the World Series for us to have a chance, and even then we’ll have to beat Uruguay. It’s possible, but we wouldn’t be the favourites. 
 

Sailing (6) -

 

Sarah Douglas - Women’s Dinghy

Georgia Lewin-Lafrance - Women’s Skiff

Fillah Karim - Men’s Dinghy 

Arie Mofatt - Men’s Skiff

Nataliya Leshko - Women’s Kite 

Tom Ramshaw - Men’s Dinghy

 

Shooting (1-2) -

 

We usually qualify a couple of athletes here, just don’t know who. 
 

Skateboarding (5) - 

 

Ryan Decenzo, Matt Berger and Micky Papa - Men’s Street

Andy Anderson - Men’s Park

Fay Ebert - Women’s Park

 

Sport Climbing (2) - 

 

Alannah Yip - Women’s Combined

Sean McColl - Men’s Combined

 

Ethan Pitcher just misses out on Olympic Qualification. 

 

Surfing (2) - Casually optimistic that we can qualify two of the following female athletes (Erin Brooks, Mathea Olin, Sanoa Olin)

 

Swimming (28) - 

 

Men (6)

Hau-Li Fan - 10km Open Water

Finlay Knox - 200m IM

Josh Liendo - 50m Freestyle, 100m Freestyle, 100m Butterfly

Ilya Kharun - 100m Butterfly, 200m Butterfly

Javier Acevado - 100m Backstroke

Gabe Mastromatteo - 100m Breastroke

4x100m Freestyle Relay

4x100m Medley Relay

 

Women (14)

Kylie Masse - 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke

Maggie MacNeil - 100m Butterfly

Penny Oleksiak - 100m Freestyle, 200m Freestyle

Summer McIntosh - 200m Freestyle, 400m Freestyle, 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 Butterfly

Mary Sophie-Harvey - 200m IM

Katerine Savard - 100m Butterfly

Kelsey Wog - 100m Breastroke, 200m Breastroke

Taylor Ruck - 100m Freestyle, 200m Backstroke

Ingrid Wilm - 100m Backstroke

Tessa Cieplucha - 400m IM

Ella Jansen - 400m Freestyle

Katrina Bellio - 1500m Freestyle

Sydney Pickrem - 200m Breastroke 

Sophie Angus - 100m Breastroke

4x100m Freestyle Relay

4x200m Freestyle Relay

4x100m Medley Relay
 

Additional Relay Athletes: Rebecca Smith, Rachel Nicol, Yuri Kisil, Ruslan Gasiev, Markus Thornmeyer, Jermey Bagshaw, Stephen Calkins, James Dergousoff. Notably, IM specialist Bailey Andison misses out on Olympic qualification. 
 

Table Tennis (2) -

 

Eugene Wang - Men’s Singles 

Mo Zhang - Women’s Singles

 

Taekwondo (6)

 

Skylar Park - Women’s -57kg

Ashley Kraayeveld - Women’s -67kg

Nicholas Hoefling - Men’s -58kg

Marc Andre Bergeron - Men’s +80kg

Jordan Stewart - Men’s -80kg

Yvette Hui Hai Yong - Women’s -49kg

 

Tennis (8) - 

 

Felix Auger-Aliassime - Men’s Singles, Mixed Doubles

Denis Shapovalov - Men’s Singles, Men’s Doubles

Leylah Fernandez - Women’s Singles

Bianca Andresscu - Women’s Singles

Rebecca Marino - Women’s Singles 

Vasek Pospisil - Men’s Doubles

Sharon Fichman - Women’s Doubles

Gabriela Dabrowski - Women’s Doubles, Mixed Doubles

 

Triathlon (4)

 

Amelie Kretz - Women’s Event, Team Event

Emy Legault - Women’s Event, Team Event

Tyler Mislawchuk - Men’s Event, Team Event

Charles Paquet - Men’s Event, Team Event

 

Waterpolo (12) - 

Women’s Team assuming United States qualifies through the World Championships. 
 

Weightlifting (2) -

Maude Charron - Women’s 59kg

Boady Santavy - Men’s 102kg 

 

Wrestling (7) - 

Ericka Weibe - Women’s 76kg

Linda Morais - Women’s 68kg 

Ana Godinez - Women’s 62kg

Madison Parks - Women’s 50kg

Karla Godinez - Women’s 57kg

 

Amar Dhesi - Men’s 125kg

Lachlan McNeil - Men’s 65kg 

 

Justina Di Stasio, Olivia Di Bacco and Diana Wiecker all miss out due to stacked weightclasses. 

 

Rythmic Gymnastics, Modern Pentathlon, Handball are highly unlikely for Canada to qualify in. Field Hockey teams have been on a decline lately, but qualification is possible. Maybe we’ll qualify, maybe we won’t. Despite the brilliant performance of our women’s volleyball team at the 2022 Worlds, I have them JUST missing out. I think our men’s volleyball team is on a decline, and won’t back up their Tokyo 2020 qualification. 
 

If anyone can help think of shooting/rowing athletes/boats qualified. I have no clue lol. 

 

Maybe I made these predictions too optimistic 

Rugby is divided into south and north americas so whatever Argentina or Uruguay do is inconsequential for your qualification, unless you're thinking about the final world qualifier. 

[Josh 10,516]

Since qualification has been ramping up lately, decided to do another prediction for   (Again, these may be a tad realistic)

 

T: 354-392 (121-137 M / 190-205 F /17-19 TBD/26-31 Idk)

 

Archery (2) - One of Crispin Duenas/Eric Peters in the men's event, and Stephanie Barrett in the women's event, therefore qualifying a mixed team. 

 

Artistic Swimming (8-10) - Our best chance at qualifying (Either a duet or team) would be the 2024 World Championships, as the United States and Mexico have both surpassed us this Olympic cycle and will take the quotas at Pan Ams.  I'm gonna say we qualify a team, but just barely. Skip

 

Athletics (57)

Men (25)

100m- Aaron Brown, Andre DeGrasse, Jerome Blake

200m- Aaron Brown, Andre DeGrasse, Jerome Blake

800m- Marco Arop, Brandon McBride

1500m- William Paulson/Robert Heppenstall, Charles Philibert-Thiboutot, Cameron Proceviat

5000m- Justyn Knight, Mo Ahmed, Charles Philibert-Thiboutot

10000m- Mo Ahmed

400m Hurdles - Malik Metivier

3000m Steeplechase - John Gay, Matthew Hughes/Jean Simon Desgagnes, Ryan Smeeton

4x100m Relay- Andre DeGrasse, Aaron Brown, Brendon Rodney, Jerome Blake

Marathon- Rory Linketter, Trevor Hofbauer/Ben Priesner, Cam Levins

High Jump- Django Lovett

Hammer Throw- Adam Keenan, Ethan Katzburg (Rowan Hamilton just misses out)

Decathlon- Pierce LePage, Damian Warner

20km Race Walk- Evan Dunfee

 

Women (32)

100m- Khamica Bingham, Crystal Emmanuel

200m- Crystal Emmanuel, Aiyanna Stiverne

400m- Kyra Constantine, Natasscha McDonald

800m- Jazz Shukla, Lindsay Butterworth

1500m- Gabriela DeBues-Stafford, Lucia Stafford

10000m- Natascha Wodak

100m Hurdles- Michelle Harrison

400m Hurdles- Sage Watson, Savannah Sutherland

3000m Steeplechase- Regan Yee, Celi McCabe

4x400m Relay- Kyra Constantine, Sage Watson, Natassha McDonald, Aiyanna Stiverne (And a few of Madeline Price, Micha Powell, Alicia Brown for heats)

Pole Vault- Alysha Newman, Anicka Newell

Shot Put- Sarah Mitton, Brittany Crew

Long Jump- Christabel Nettey

Javelin Throw- Liz Gleadle

Hammer Throw- Camryn Rogers, Jillian Weir

Triple Jump- Caroline Erdhardt, Mikeisha Welcome (I believe she's attempting to change nationalities to Canada, don't know if it'll be in time for Paris)

Marathon- Leslie Sexton, Malindi Elmore, Natascha Wodak

Heptathlon- Nicole Ostertag/Georgia Ellenwood

 

Badminton (8) - Michelle Li in women's singles, Brian Yang in men's singles, Rachel Honderich/Kristen Tsai in women's doubles, Adam Dong/Nyl Yakura in men's doubles, and Ty Lindeman/Josephine Wu in mixed doubles. 

 

Basketball (28) - Women's 3x3 Team, Men's Team, and Women's Team.

 

Beach Volleyball (4-6) - Pairings keep switching up, running out of time for CAN2 to make it through points. Brandie/Mel will most likely qualify through Olympic Ranking, and maybe a pairing through NORCECA? (Thinking one of Pavan/McBain, McNamara/McNamara, Bansley/Bukovec). Possibly Schacter/Dearing in the men's tournament also. 

 

Boxing (6) - 

Tammara Thibeault- Women’s 75kg

Charlie Cavanaugh- Women’s 66kg

Priyanka Dhillon- Women’s 50kg

Scarlett Delgado- Women’s 54kg

Caroline Veyre- Women’s 57kg

Wyatt Sanford- Men’s 63.5kg

 

Keoma-Ali Al-Ahmadieh (Men’s 57kg) just misses out. 

 

Breaking (1-2) - B-Boy Phil. Maybe B-Girl Tiff through the OQS. 

 

Canoe: Sprint/Slalom (16) - Just used my predictions from my previous post since I'm unsure 

Canoe Sprint (13) 

Katie Vincent - C-1 200m / C-2 500m 

Sophia Jensen - C-1 200m / C-2 500m

Toshka Besharah-Hrebacka - K-2 500m / K-4 500m 

Adreanne Langlois - Women’s K-2 500m / K-4 500m

Michelle Russell -  Women’s K-1 500m

Riley Melanson - Women’s K-4 500m

Natalie Davidson -  Women’s K-4 500m

 

Nicholas Mateev - Men’s K-4 500m, Men’s K-2 500m

Simon McTavish - Men’s K-4 500m, Men’s K-2 500m 

Pierre-Luc Poulin - Men’s K-4 500m

Laurent Lavigne - Men’s K-4 500m

Connor Fitzpatrick - Men’s C-1 1000m, Men's C-2 1000m

Roland Varga - Men’s C-1 1000m, Men's C-2 1000m

 

Canoe Slalom (3)

Alex Baldoni - Men’s C-1, Men’s KX-1

Lois Betteridge- Women’s C-1

Florence Mateu - Women’s K-1

 

Cycling (19) - 

Track Cycling (15) 

Kelsey Mitchell- Women’s Sprint, Women’s Keirin, Women’s Team Sprint

Lauriane Genest- Women’s Sprint, Women’s Keirin, Women’s Team Sprint

Sarah Orban- Women’s Team Sprint

Allison Beveridge- Women’s Omnium

Maggie Coles-Lyster- Women’s Omnium, Women’s Madison

Sarah Van Dam- Women’s Madison

Women’s Team Pursuit

 

Dylan Bibic- Men’s Omnium, Men’s Madison

Nick Wammes- Men’s Sprint, Men’s Keirin, Men’s Team Sprint

Ryan Dodyk- Men’s Sprint, Men’s Team Sprint

James Hedgcock- Men’s Keirin, Men’s Team Sprint 

Mathias Guillemette- Men’s Madison

 

Road Cycling (4)

Leah Kirchmann - Women’s Time Trial

Alison Jackson - Women’s Road Race/ Women’s Time Trial

Michael Woods- Men’s Road Race

Hugo Houle- Men’s Road Race/Men’s Time Trial

 

Mountain Biking (2)

Laurie Arsenault in the women's event, and Carter Woods in the men's event.

 

BMX Racing (2)

James Palmer in the men's event, and Molly Simpson in the women's event.

 

Diving (7) - 

Bryden Hattie- Men’s 3m Springboard

Nathan Zsombor-Murray- Men’s 10m Platform, Men’s 10m Synchronized Platform

Rylan Wiens- Men’s 10m Platform, Men’s 10m Synchronized Platform

 

Mia Valee- Women’s 3m Springboard, Women’s 3m Synchronized Springboard

Pamela Ware- Women’s 3m Springboard, Women’s 3m Synchronized Springboard

 

Caeli McKay- Women’s 10m Platform, Women’s 10m Synchronized Platform

Celina Toth- Women’s 10m Platform, Women’s 10m Synchronized Platform 

 

Equestrian (9) - Should qualify a full team (Jumping, Eventing, Dressage) through Pan Ams.

 

Fencing (12) - 

Eleanor Harvey - Women’s Foil, Women’s Team Foil

Jessica Guo - Women’s Foil, Women’s Team Foil

Kelliegh Ryan - Women’s Foil, Women’s Team Foil

Sabrina Fang - Women’s Team Foil

Alexandre Verett - Women’s Epee

Gabriella Page - Women’s Sabre 

 

Maximilien Van Haaster - Men’s Foil, Men’s Team Foil

Blake Brozus - Men’s Foil, Men’s Team Foil

Eli Schenkel - Men’s Foil, Men’s Team Foil

Francois Cauchon- Men's Team Sabre

Shaul Gordon- Men's Team Sabre

Fares Arfa - Men’s Sabre, Men's Team Sabre

 

Field Hockey (13-26) - One quota in either the men's or women's tournament. (More likely in the men's tournament)

 

Football (18) - Women's team should qualify. 

Golf (4) - Brooke Henderson and Maude Aimee Leblanc in the women's event, Corey Conners and Nick Taylor in the men's event.

 

Artistic Gymnastics (14) - Women’s team has already secured qualification. If our men's team can replicate their performance from last year's World Championships, they'd qualify as well. 

 

Artistic Gymnastics (11)

Women’s Team- Ellie Black, Shallon Olsen, Emma Spence, Sydney Turner

Ellie Black - Women’s Balance Beam, Women’s All-Around

Brooklyn Moors - Women’s All Around, Women’s Floor

Shallon Olsen - Women’s Vault

Laurie Denoumee - Women’s Vault

 

Men’s Team - Felix Dolci, William Emard, Rene Cournoyer, Chris Kaji, Jason Rampersad. Don't know the event situation with these athletes.

 

Trampoline Gymnastics (3)

Jermey Chartier - Men’s Event

Sophiane Methot - Women’s Event

Samantha Smith - Women’s Event

Judo (7) - 

Kelly Deguchi - Women’s -52kg 

Christa Deguchi - Women’s -57kg, Team Event

Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard - Women’s -63kg, Team Event

Coralie Godbout - Team Event

 

Arthur Margelidon - Men’s -73kg, Team Event

Francois Gauthier-Drapeau - Men’s -81kg, Team Event

Kyle Reyes - Men’s -100kg, Team Event 

 

Rowing (25-30) - 

Used numbers from Tokyo/Rio and the recent WCHs to do my predictions. 
 

Rugby 7s (13-26) -  

Women's team should qualify through Ran 7s. Men's team is looking unlikely for a quota, now that USA failed to qualify through the WS. But home crowd advantage helps, and if you catch them on a bad day you could certainly pull off an upset.

 

Sailing (6) -

Sarah Douglas - Women’s Dinghy

Georgia Lewin-Lafrance - Women’s Skiff

Fillah Karim - Men’s Dinghy 

Arie Mofatt - Men’s Skiff

Nataliya Leshko - Women’s Kite 

Tom Ramshaw - Men’s Dinghy

 

Shooting (1) -

Don't know who, but I think we'll qualify someone.
 

Skateboarding (4) - 

Ryan Decenzo, Cordano Russell, Micky Papa/Matt Berger - Men’s Street 

Fay Ebert - Women’s Park

 

Sport Climbing (2) - 

Alannah Yip/Madison Fisher in women’s combined, Sean McColl/Ethan Pitcher in men's combined/speed. 

 

Surfing (2-3) -

Erin Brooks and one of the Olin sisters. Maybe we could qualify Cody Young. 

 

Swimming (29) - 

Men (12)

Hau-Li Fan - 10km Open Water

Finlay Knox - 200m IM

Josh Liendo - 50m Freestyle, 100m Freestyle, 100m Butterfly

Ilya Kharun - 100m Butterfly, 200m Butterfly

Javier Acevado - 100m Backstroke

Gabe Mastromatteo - 100m Breastroke

4x100m Freestyle Relay

4x100m Medley Relay

 

Women (17)

Kylie Masse - 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke

Maggie MacNeil - 100m Butterfly 

Penny Oleksiak - 100m Freestyle, 200m Freestyle

Summer McIntosh - 200m Freestyle, 400m Freestyle, 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 Butterfly

Katerine Savard - 100m Butterfly

Kelsey Wog - 100m Breastroke, 200m Breastroke

Taylor Ruck - 100m Freestyle, 200m Backstroke

Ingrid Wilm - 100m Backstroke

Tessa Cieplucha - 400m IM

Ella Jansen - 400m Freestyle

Sydney Pickrem - 200m Breastroke, 200m IM 

Sophie Angus - 100m Breastroke

4x100m Freestyle Relay

4x200m Freestyle Relay

4x100m Medley Relay

 

1-2 in the W distance freestyles (800/1500) out of O'Cronin, Finlin, Bellio, and Dunford. 
 

Additional Relay Athletes: Rebecca Smith, Rachel Nicol, Yuri Kisil, Ruslan Gasiev, Markus Thornmeyer, Jeremy Bagshaw, Stephen Calkins, James Dergousoff, Mary Sophie Harvey
 

Table Tennis (2) -

Eugene Wang in men’s singles, and Mo Zhang in women’s singles.

 

Taekwondo (6)

Skylar Park - Women’s -57kg

Ashley Kraayeveld - Women’s -67kg

Tae Ku Park - Men’s -68kg

Nicholas Hoefling/Braven Park - Men’s -58kg

Marc Andre Bergeron - Men’s +80kg

Yvette Hui Hai Yong - Women’s -49kg

 

Tennis (8) - 

Felix Auger-Aliassime - Men’s Singles, Mixed Doubles

Denis Shapovalov - Men’s Singles, Men’s Doubles

Leylah Fernandez - Women’s Singles

Bianca Andresscu - Women’s Singles

Rebecca Marino - Women’s Singles 

Vasek Pospisil - Men’s Doubles

Sharon Fichman - Women’s Doubles

Gabriela Dabrowski - Women’s Doubles, Mixed Doubles

 

Triathlon (4)

Dominika Jamnicky - Women’s Event, Team Event

Emy Legault - Women’s Event, Team Event

Tyler Mislawchuk - Men’s Event, Team Event

Charles Paquet - Men’s Event, Team Event

 

Waterpolo (12) - 

Women’s team assuming USA qualifies through the World Championships. Men's team could qualify, but would need an upset over USA and possibly a victory over BRA to qualify. Don't see it happening.
 

Weightlifting (2) -

Maude Charron - Women’s 59kg

Boady Santavy - Men’s 102kg 

 

Wrestling (7) - 

Erica Weibe - Women’s 76kg

Linda Morais - Women’s 68kg 

Ana Godinez - Women’s 62kg

Madison Parks - Women’s 50kg

Karla Godinez - Women’s 57kg

 

Amar Dhesi - Men’s 125kg

Lachlan McNeil - Men’s 65kg 

 

Don't know how Canada will choose their team for Paris 2024s=, there's so much talent in our team. This would mean Justina Di Stasio, Olivia Di Bacco and Diana Wiecker all miss out, despite being good enough to qualify/potentially medal.  

 

Rhythmic Gymnastics, Modern Pentathlon, Handball, and Volleyball are sports I have Canada failing to qualify in. I hope I'm wrong though, really hoping at least one of our volleyball teams qualifies.

Edited June 29, 2023 by Josh

[hckošice 14,830]

Exactly 1 year from now, our NOC will have it´s traditional pre-Games classical delegation nomination assembly

 

The qualifiers are ongoing in several sports and more or less we can already imagine realistically the composition of our Paris 2024 Team

 

S let see how it looks and how much wrong I will be

 

 

Archery: Still not qualified, but it is one of those sports I really believe we will at the end grab that one spot. More likely among women than men. The highest chance to reach that holy grail shoul be for Baránková, so let see and pray  - 1

Artistic Swimming: I guess not many chances here. At the beginning I thought we can qualify a duet, but now realistically I am affraid we will miss participation in this sport for the second consecutive time, our pair is regularly ranking 3-4 places behind the last European quota - 0

Athletics: A year before the games I already know that it will be Zero through Standard, but hopefully a bunch via Ranking.

Volko (100 & 200), Viki Forster (W 100 Hurdles, maybe the 100 dash as well...), Gajanová (W 800) are the least worrying names to qualify.

Then we have some which should qualify at the end as well, like Lomnický (Hammer), Kaňuchová (Hammer), Balúch (400 H) and I assume our Mixed-relay-Race Walking crap will qualify as well. and then there some names that are questionable, but not to be underestimated like the after injury returning slovak comet Emma Zapletalová in the 400H  - Between 9 and 11, probably 10

Badminton: Slovakia competed 3 times in this sport always in the W singles and achieved in Tokyo its first won match, this time we should qualify again among women, the Košice born Katarína Vargová is purposefully constantly regularly participating in obscure tournaments in or to obtain enough points for Paris. I always said our Badminton federation is the smartest institution in our sport universe   - 1

Basketball: Nothing changed since previous predictions, just the Women team is already out. M team was already out since the invention of the sport. Our M will qualify only if IOC expend the tournament to a 206 nations tourney  - 0 

Beach Volleyball: not enough sand...  - 0

Boxing: Andrej "Bandi" Csemez is our sole realistic chance to qualify, he missed the EG because of illness he caught after returning from the preparation camp in Cuba... but I still do believe he will qualify next year.

the rest no chance, is one of those countries, you know, even if we kill the opponent on the ring, the referees will call the opponent lying in coma at the hospital as winner   - 0

 

Breaking: Pogo maybe, Breaking no - 0

Canoeing - Slalom: Copy/Paste since the late 90´s. Full team or fucking riots - 6

Canoeing - Sprint: I expected since the beginning the easy qualification of our famous K4, now I am not so sure, I mean, not sure at all, I am afraid we will experience a huge disaster in this. In case the catastroph scenario will seriously occur next month, we will probably qualify only 2 or 3 individuals - Hopefully it will be 7, afraid it will be only 2

Cycling - BMX: who the fuck invent those sports, seriously ? - 0

Cycling - Mountain Bike: Sagan apparently has a plan to retire from the sport in Paris in the MTB... Well, not very likely, we are not even near the qualifying position right now, so I do not see it realistic - Zero

Cycling - Road: Nothing changed since last prediction. Still No idea, Maybe Peter Sagan will really have one final dance in Paris road race if he will not qualify in the MTB, but probably no. if we qualify one guy we will probably send Štoček or another younger prospect like Svrček - 1

Cycling - Track: Pavlendová is trying, but I guess at the end as always, in vain - 0

Diving: If Neymar will accept our citizenship... - 0

Equestrian: Bugan´s and his "For President" only chance to qualify is I guess if a lot of countries will decline quotas to steal probably the most unexpected and unbelievable quota in sports world entire history - 0

Fencing: more likely to meet a dinosaur than to see a slovak fencer at the Olympics in this century - 0

Field Hockey: Playing hockey on grass ! I swear, some people and their ideas ... - 0

Football: Both teams out for the surprise of nobody - 0

Golf: Our very own Boy from Durban, ehm, sorry, Bratislava Rory S. is actually out of the qualifying places, but I do believe he will manage to qualify anyway, if not, well, whatever - 1

Gymnastics - Artistic: Same as last year. Barbora Mokošová again our only hope to qualify, Hopefully she will manage to reach it, anyway it is far from being a sure thing - 1

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Same as last year. Not in this millenium - 0

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Same as last year. Actually we have no registered competitors in this  - 0

Handball: Both teams already out - 0

Judo: Márius Fizeľ in the +100kg is very well in the battle to qualify Slovakia back to the Olympic Tatami after 12 years, At least the European quota is really in the play. So hopefully there will be also some luck for Slovakia for once - 1

Modern Pentathlon: We do not punch horses here, so probably no - 0

Rowing: You will laugh, but we do have a 17 year prodigy kid who came last year out of nowhere, so who knows, declined quota here and there and he can go - 0

Rugby Sevens: Already out, well, never was really in ... neither to be honest - 0

Sailing: copy/paste from last one !

 

we have no sea   - 0

Shooting: Our sole 3 qualified athletes so far:

Patrik Jány (in both M Rifle events) Zuzan Rehák-Štefečeková 3 time olympic medalist and Tokyo reigning champion (Trap) and the young Vanesa Hocková (Skeet).

Hopefully a couple of athletes will soon join them, 2 are leading the world ranking, our IOC member Danka Barteková (Skeet) & Juraj Tužinský (Air Pistol) should qualify at the end easily, some have chances as well, EG Silver medalist young Kamila Novotná (W Rifle), Špotáková (Trap) E. Varga or Drobný (M Trap) - 8

Skateboarding: Richard Tury is within the qualifying positions in M Street, I do really hope and wish him to fullfil his Olympic dream after missing Tokyo so nearly - 1

Sport Climbing: The young Martina Buršíková is seriously one huge talent and many projecting her as the biggest Slovak sport talent (outside the religious Hockey obviously) in last decades, The girl this year won everything she attended in the Juniors level, from next year she is expected to start competing among seniors, so Paris probably not yet, but LA28 ! better watch out, wi ar komin ! - 0

Surfing: Out by default, We do not have registered federation - 0

Swimming: 2 Tourists via universality quotas will try to not drown in Paris for sure, Podmaníková in the W Breakstroke and probably Halas in the Freestyle sprints - 2

Table Tennis: Last time we had 3, now I am pretty confident we can qualify even 4. Pištej and Wang Yang among M, Balážová and Kukuľková among W.

Barbie B. and Pištej will compete in Mixed Doubles as well for sure, Slim chance for the W Team as well, but as history taught us, we usually lose those quotas at the end - 4

Taekwondo: Chances are somewhere below zero - 0

Tennis: We never missed the Olympics in this, I am sure thanks many future mandatory reallocations we will form even a doubles pair, maybe also among women, would be nice to return in the W field after missing Tokyo (Molčan, Gomboš, Schmiedlová and Hrunčáková-nee-Kužmová I guess are the most likely) - 4 

Triathlon: W: RIvan Kuriačková is in qualifying position, but, there some promising youngsters behind like Vráblová or Michaličková, maybe even Romana Gajdošová who can menace her eventual quota, among M: It is less optimistic, Richard Varga is our sole chance, but lately completely out of form  - 1

Volleyball: Both teams out, but be aware, W are progressing step by step - 0

Water Polo: Like last 2 Olympic cycles, Both teams still among the best 16 in Europe but still Too weak to qualify among the best in the world or at the Olympics - 0

Weightlifting: I guess none... as usual - 0

Wrestling: Not wanting to jinx it, but I firmly believe we will be in Paris 2024 in this sport. Salkazanov, Tsakulov, Makoev are among favorites for the quotas, Zsuzsanna Molnar with an outside chance among women as well, all in Freestyle, Zero chance in Greco-Roman though  - 3


Total Sports: 15-16

Optimistic Total Athletes: 50 or even god forbid 51

Realistic Total Athletes: as last prediction: anything between 40-50 is basically realistic, In my predictions I counted  47 or  48 which would be kinda OK-ish

Pessimistic Total Athletes: under 40

Edited July 9, 2023 by hckošice

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

On 6/25/2023 at 2:54 PM, Josh said:

 

Taekwondo (6)

Skylar Park - Women’s -57kg

Ashley Kraayeveld - Women’s -67kg

Tae Ku Park - Men’s -68kg

Nicholas Hoefling/Braven Park - Men’s -58kg

Marc Andre Bergeron - Men’s +80kg

Yvette Hui Hai Yong - Women’s -49kg

 

Don't see a route to Canada qualifying 6 athletes in taekwondo - in fact, I don't think there will be many nations able to qualify more than 4 athletes with the exception of China (and they'll only do it because of the unbalanced nature of the Grand Slam Champions Series) 

 

At the moment, only Skylar Park is in a qualifying position, so Canada would be able to enter 2 men and 1 woman into the PanAm continental qualifier so at best I think Canada will field 4 athletes in Paris.

[Agger 1,663]

I'll join in on updating the predictions for Denmark

 

Archery: Still feels like we will have 0 participants, but the women are absolutely not out of contention - 0

Artistic Swimming: We have some participants internationally, but no! - 0

Athletics: It has been a tough year so far, but we do have a bunch of potential qualifiers. I don't think anybody will make the standards though Mette Graversgaard and Kathrine Koch do have a chance. Without injuries we still have a decent shot at a 4x100 relay or both. Several strong athletes are on the way back from injuries (Lobo Vedel, Karstoft, Ibler and Møller). Hopefully some of those are ready during the late summer. A decent amount with outside chances as well. I'm going a bit lower than originally, but we could very well end up higher  - 11

Badminton: A good start for the mixed doubles make me feel decently comfortable that they will qualify. The women's doubles are still pretty uncertain, but I believe they will make it. Still strongly think we'll have 2 men's singles and one in each of women's singles and men's doubles - 9

Basketball: No chance - 0 

Beach Volleyball: Seems very unlikely - 0

Boxing: Terteryan made it. I think he will be the only one, but there are chances for more. - 1

 

Breaking: The only chance for us is Rico Coker (Zoopreme) getting his Danish citizenship in time for the Qualifier series. I doubt it, but who knows? - 0

Canoeing - Slalom: No chance - 0

Canoeing - Sprint: Certainly feels like the women's K4 should make it again. If not we will see a K2 and K1. The men's K4 and K2 have outside chances. - 6

Cycling - BMX: Malene Kejlstrup is doing an amazing job that may end up giving us 2 spots in the women's race. The men's may get one spot, but it will most likely need a good result in the Worlds. - 2

Cycling - Mountain Bike: It feels very much like the women will get 2 spots while the men really need to find a higher level if we want 2 riders. I think we'll stay at the 3 - 3

Cycling - Road: There can't be much doubt that the men will get the maximum 4 quotas and I think they will secure a TT-spot no. 2 at the Worlds. The women are struggling, but with a good summer the 3rd quota is within reach. But it feels like they'll have to do with 2. - 6

Cycling - Track: Seems pretty certain that we will get the same as in Tokyo. - 7

Diving: Still far off. - 0

Equestrian: Dressage team qualified and we already seem certain to get a spot in the jumping. Good chance in eventing as well - 5

Fencing: Unlikely but you never know in the qualifying event - 0

Field Hockey: I think we still don’t have an outdoor national team.  - 0

Football: The U-21 team is out and the Women needs to outperform themselves. Unlikely but not impossible - 0

Golf: Not much doubt that we will get 2 each - 4

Gymnastics - Artistic: Camille Rasmussen feels like a pretty likely qualifies - 1

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Still no chance - 0

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Benjamin Salo Kjær had potential but a bad injury has taken him out of contention. Guess that means no Danes. - 0

Handball: Feels like we should qualify both teams this time. - 28

Judo: Mathias Madsen has done pretty well so far, but there's a long way to go. Lærke Olsen is in the fight as well. i think it will be one place, but it could be both 2 and 0 - 1

Modern Pentathlon: We have one serious athlete but the Olympics feels a bit too far away, especially without equestrian - 0

Rowing: Sverri Nielsen is back in great shape. The women’s four seems like a pretty safe bet as well and both pairs are strong. Some smaller chances in other classes. - 9

Rugby Sevens: Nah - 0

Sailing: ILCA 6, 49er and 49er FX feels pretty certain to qualify. We have a decent Nacra 17 and Lærke Buhl has a pretty good shot in IQ foil as well. Small chances in ILCA 7 and men’s IQ foil. We may see something in the men’s IQ foil, laser or kite, but all are questionable.  - 8

Shooting: We have one rifle quota. I still expect at least one in men’s skeet and we have chances for more in women’s rifle, men’s air pistol and men’s skeet. - 3

Skateboarding: Sounds like Glifberg will not be going for the Olympics even though he is decently ranked so far. Solmunde is showing potential. There’s a decent shot, but I think we will be just outside. - 0

Sport Climbing: Very questionable - 0

Surfing: Not gonna happen - 0

Swimming: Pernille Blume stopped and we’re only sending 5 swimmers to the World Championships. A few others have a shot and I think the Olympic squad will be larger, but not by much  - 7

Table Tennis: Anders Lind had a great start to the qualification and Jonathan Groth shows potential once again. We should at least qualify one, but 2 is not out of reach - 1

Taekwondo: We won’t be getting anything through the rankings, but both Hyttel and Hrnic have the potential to make it. It will be hard but certainly not impossible - 0

Tennis: Holger Rune seems pretty sure if he doesn’t get injured. I think Tauson will make it high enough as well. Wozniacki is the best chance for a 3^rd player, but I have no idea whether she is back at the necessary level - 2 

Triathlon: Alberte Kjær is pretty close to certain while Emil Holm also seems to be well on the way. Both Anne Holm and Oscar Gladney seems to be a bit outside and even very unsafe when it comes to the necessary ranking for a relay spot. - 2

Volleyball: We’re far away - 0

Water Polo: Ditto. - 0

Weightlifting: The European Championships didn’t seem like the success necessary to have a chance. It’s not gone, but I don’t think they’ll make it. - 0

Wrestling: Turpal Bisultanov finally got the citizenship but is injured meaning that he will miss the World Championships. There are still high hopes for his chances, but there’s no time to waste. - 1

 

Total Sports: 21

Optimistic Total Athletes: 130

Realistic Total Athletes: 117

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 75

 

[Benolympique 2,398]

15 minutes ago, Agger said:

I'll join in on updating the predictions for Denmark

 

Archery: Still feels like we will have 0 participants, but the women are absolutely not out of contention - 0

Artistic Swimming: We have some participants internationally, but no! - 0

Athletics: It has been a tough year so far, but we do have a bunch of potential qualifiers. I don't think anybody will make the standards though Mette Graversgaard and Kathrine Koch do have a chance. Without injuries we still have a decent shot at a 4x100 relay or both. Several strong athletes are on the way back from injuries (Lobo Vedel, Karstoft, Ibler and Møller). Hopefully some of those are ready during the late summer. A decent amount with outside chances as well. I'm going a bit lower than originally, but we could very well end up higher  - 11

Badminton: A good start for the mixed doubles make me feel decently comfortable that they will qualify. The women's doubles are still pretty uncertain, but I believe they will make it. Still strongly think we'll have 2 men's singles and one in each of women's singles and men's doubles - 9

Basketball: No chance - 0 

Beach Volleyball: Seems very unlikely - 0

Boxing: Terteryan made it. I think he will be the only one, but there are chances for more. - 1

 

Breaking: The only chance for us is Rico Coker (Zoopreme) getting his Danish citizenship in time for the Qualifier series. I doubt it, but who knows? - 0

Canoeing - Slalom: No chance - 0

Canoeing - Sprint: Certainly feels like the women's K4 should make it again. If not we will see a K2 and K1. The men's K4 and K2 have outside chances. - 6

Cycling - BMX: Malene Kejlstrup is doing an amazing job that may end up giving us 2 spots in the women's race. The men's may get one spot, but it will most likely need a good result in the Worlds. - 2

Cycling - Mountain Bike: It feels very much like the women will get 2 spots while the men really need to find a higher level if we want 2 riders. I think we'll stay at the 3 - 3

Cycling - Road: There can't be much doubt that the men will get the maximum 4 quotas and I think they will secure a TT-spot no. 2 at the Worlds. The women are struggling, but with a good summer the 3rd quota is within reach. But it feels like they'll have to do with 2. - 6

Cycling - Track: Seems pretty certain that we will get the same as in Tokyo. - 7

Diving: Still far off. - 0

Equestrian: Dressage team qualified and we already seem certain to get a spot in the jumping. Good chance in eventing as well - 5

Fencing: Unlikely but you never know in the qualifying event - 0

Field Hockey: I think we still don’t have an outdoor national team.  - 0

Football: The U-21 team is out and the Women needs to outperform themselves. Unlikely but not impossible - 0

Golf: Not much doubt that we will get 2 each - 4

Gymnastics - Artistic: Camille Rasmussen feels like a pretty likely qualifies - 1

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Still no chance - 0

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Benjamin Salo Kjær had potential but a bad injury has taken him out of contention. Guess that means no Danes. - 0

Handball: Feels like we should qualify both teams this time. - 28

Judo: Mathias Madsen has done pretty well so far, but there's a long way to go. Lærke Olsen is in the fight as well. i think it will be one place, but it could be both 2 and 0 - 1

Modern Pentathlon: We have one serious athlete but the Olympics feels a bit too far away, especially without equestrian - 0

Rowing: Sverri Nielsen is back in great shape. The women’s four seems like a pretty safe bet as well and both pairs are strong. Some smaller chances in other classes. - 9

Rugby Sevens: Nah - 0

Sailing: ILCA 6, 49er and 49er FX feels pretty certain to qualify. We have a decent Nacra 17 and Lærke Buhl has a pretty good shot in IQ foil as well. Small chances in ILCA 7 and men’s IQ foil. We may see something in the men’s IQ foil, laser or kite, but all are questionable.  - 8

Shooting: We have one rifle quota. I still expect at least one in men’s skeet and we have chances for more in women’s rifle, men’s air pistol and men’s skeet. - 3

Skateboarding: Sounds like Glifberg will not be going for the Olympics even though he is decently ranked so far. Solmunde is showing potential. There’s a decent shot, but I think we will be just outside. - 0

Sport Climbing: Very questionable - 0

Surfing: Not gonna happen - 0

Swimming: Pernille Blume stopped and we’re only sending 5 swimmers to the World Championships. A few others have a shot and I think the Olympic squad will be larger, but not by much  - 7

Table Tennis: Anders Lind had a great start to the qualification and Jonathan Groth shows potential once again. We should at least qualify one, but 2 is not out of reach - 1

Taekwondo: We won’t be getting anything through the rankings, but both Hyttel and Hrnic have the potential to make it. It will be hard but certainly not impossible - 0

Tennis: Holger Rune seems pretty sure if he doesn’t get injured. I think Tauson will make it high enough as well. Wozniacki is the best chance for a 3^rd player, but I have no idea whether she is back at the necessary level - 2 

Triathlon: Alberte Kjær is pretty close to certain while Emil Holm also seems to be well on the way. Both Anne Holm and Oscar Gladney seems to be a bit outside and even very unsafe when it comes to the necessary ranking for a relay spot. - 2

Volleyball: We’re far away - 0

Water Polo: Ditto. - 0

Weightlifting: The European Championships didn’t seem like the success necessary to have a chance. It’s not gone, but I don’t think they’ll make it. - 0

Wrestling: Turpal Bisultanov finally got the citizenship but is injured meaning that he will miss the World Championships. There are still high hopes for his chances, but there’s no time to waste. - 1

 

Total Sports: 21

Optimistic Total Athletes: 130

Realistic Total Athletes: 117

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 75

 

i really hope that denmark qualify women in handball

 

[Josh 10,516]

So I did this back in June, and since a lot has changed since then, I'll do an updated prediction for  

 

This is an extremely unrealistic prediction, and I expect our total to be much lower than this 

 

Archery (1-4) - Eric Peters, with his surprise silver medal at the 2023 World Archery Championships, has already secured us a quota in men's recurve. Crispin Duenas, and Kristen Esebua should be in contention for individual quotas at the Pan Am Games (depending on the draw), and our men's team (QFs at the Paris WC) should have a chance at the Pan Am Qualification Tournament next year. 

 

Artistic Swimming (8-10) - As we're no longer the top nation in the Pan American region, don't think we'll qualify either a team or duet through the Pan Am Games. However, I do think we'll be able to secure a team quota at the 2024 World Aquatic Championships, but just barely.  

 

Athletics (52) - As always, we should field between 50-60 athletes. 

 

Men's 100m - Brendon Rodney, Andre DeGrasse, Aaron Brown

Men's 200m - Brendon Rodney, Andre DeGrasse, Aaron Brown

Men's 4x100m - Brendon Rodney, Andre DeGrasse, Aaron Brown, Jerome Blake, Bojale Ajomale (heats only)

Men's 800m - Marco Arop, Brandon McBride

Men's 1500m - Charles Philibert-Thiboutot, Kieran Lumb, Cameron Proceviat

Men's 5000m - Mo Ahmed, Justyn Knight

Men's 10000m - Mo Ahmed

Men's 110m Hurdles - Craig Thorne

Men's 3000m Steeplechase - Jean Simon Desgagnes, Matthew Hughes

Men's 20km Race Walk - Evan Dunfee

Decathlon - Pierce LePage, Damian Warner

Men's Marathon - Cam Levins, Trevor Hofbauer, Ben Priesner

Men's Hammer Throw - Rowan Hamilton, Adam Keenan, Ethan Katzberg

Men's High Jump - Django Lovett (although if he continues his bad stretch of form, he'll be out of contention for a WA ranking quota )

Women's 100m - Khamica Bingham
Women's 400m - Sage Watson, Kyra Constantine, Natassha McDonald (if still competing),

Women's 800m - Jazz Shukla, Madeline Kelly, Lindsay Butterworth 

Women's 1500m - Lucia Stafford, Gabriella De Bues Stafford

Women's 3000m Steeplechase - Celi McCabe, Regan Yee

Women's 100m Hurdles - Michelle Harrison, Mariam Abdul Rashid

Women's 400m Hurdles - Savannah Sutherland, Brooke Overholt

Women's Shot Put - Sarah Mitton

Women's Pole Vault - Alysha Newman, Anicka Newell

Women's Hammer Throw - Camryn Rogers, Jillian Weir

Women's Javelin Throw - Liz Gleadle (don't know why she hasn't competed this season, maybe injured??)

Women's Marathon - Natasha Wodak, Leslie Sexton, Malindi Elmore

Women's 4x400m - Kyra Constantine, Sage Watson, Aiyanna Stiverne, Natassha McDonald, and a couple of Madeline Price, Micha Powell, and Alicia Brown (heats only)

 

No athletes in women's long jump, Christabel Nettey hasn't been having the greatest last few years. I have no clue on if we'd qualify in the mixed-team race walk event but probably not. 

 

Badminton (4-8) - Michelle Li, and Brian Yang in women's and men's singles. Honderich/Tsai in women's doubles, and one of Dong/Yakura and Lindeman/Wu in men's doubles and mixed doubles. 

 

Basketball (28) - Men's 5x5 team already qualified through the 2023 FIBA World Cup. Women's 5x5 team should qualify through the OQT, and so should our women's 3x3 team.

 

Beach Volleyball (4-6) - Mel/Brandie are almost a lock to qualify. For the second quota, it'll almost certainly be between Pavan/McBain and Bansley/Bukovec, but since both teams formed late in the qualifying period, don't see either one booking their ticket to Paris 2024 through the Olympic Ranking, but rather the NORCECA Olympic Qualifier, where they should steamroll through the field (assuming all their wins will be in straight sets, given the opponents). As for our men, Schacter/Dearing have a chance at qualification, but with the Cubans (Diaz/Alayo) and the Mexicans (don't know the pairings situation, but they should be in the mix) also expected to be there, it's far from a guarantee. 

 

Boxing (5) - Wyatt Sanford in men's 63.5kg, Tammara Thibeault in women's 75kg, Charlie Cavanaugh in women's 66kg, Caroline Veyre in women's 57kg, Scarlett Delgado in women's 54kg. 

 

Breaking (1-2) - Phillip Kim will probably qualify through the 2023 Breaking World Championships or the Pan Am Games. If not, he'll qualify through the OQS. Maybe Tiff Leung can as well. Frankly, I don't care though. 

 

Canoe Sprint/Slalom (14) - At the 2023 Canoe Sprint World Championships we qualified boats in women's K-1 500m, women's K-4 500m, women's C-1 200m, women's C-2 500m, and men's K-4 500m.

 

Katie Vincent - Women's C-1 200m / C-2 500m 

Sophia Jensen - Women's C-1 200m / C-2 500m

Michelle Russell - Women's K-1 500m

Tosha Behak Hrebacka - Women's K-2 500m / K-4 500m 

Adreanne Langlois - Women’s K-2 500m / K-4 500m

Riley Melanson - Women’s K-4 500m

Natalie Davidson -  Women’s K-4 500m

 

Nicholas Mateev - Men’s K-4 500m, Men’s K-2 500m

Simon McTavish - Men’s K-4 500m, Men’s K-2 500m 

Pierre-Luc Poulin - Men’s K-4 500m

Laurent Lavigne - Men’s K-4 500m

Connor Fitzpatrick - Men’s C-1 1000m, Men's C-2 500m

Roland Varga - Men’s C-1 1000m, Men's C-2 500m

 

And 1-2 athletes out of Alex Baldoni (men's C1/K1/KX), Lois Betteridge (women's C1/K1), Lea Baldoni (women's K1), and Florence Mathieu (women's K1) in canoe slalom.

 

Cycling (25) -

 

Track

Kelsey Mitchell - Women's Sprint, Women's Keirin, Women's Team Sprint

Lauriane Genest - Women's Sprint, Women's Keirin, Women's Team Sprint

Sarah Orban - Women's Team Sprint

Allison Beveridge - Women's Omnium

Sarah Van Dam - Women's Madison

Women's Team Pursuit

Nick Wammes - Men's Sprint, Men's Keirin, Men's Team Sprint

Ryan Dodyk - Men's Sprint, Men's Team Sprint

James Hedgcock - Men's Keirin, Men's Team Sprint

Dylan Bibic- Men’s Omnium, Men’s Madison 

Mathias Guillemette- Men’s Madison

Men's Team Pursuit

 

Road

Leah Kirchmann - Women's Road Race

Alison Jackson - Women's Road Race, Women's Time Trial

Hugo Houle - Men's Road Race, Men's Time Trial

Michael Woods - Men's Road Race, Men's Time Trial

 

Tough choice choosing Woods over Derek Gee. 

 

Mountain Biking

Laurie Arsenault - Women's Cross Country

Carter Woods - Men's Cross Country

 

BMX Racing

Molly Simpson - Women's Race

 

Diving (8) - 

Bryden Hattie - Men's 3m Springboard 

Rylan Wiens - Men's 10m Platform, Men's Synchro 10m Platform (Already secured an individual quota at the 2023 FINA World Championships)

Nathan Zsombor Murray - Men's 10m Platform, Men's Synchro 10m Platform

Mia Valee- Women’s 3m Springboard, Women’s 3m Synchronized Springboard

Pamela Ware- Women’s 3m Springboard, Women’s 3m Synchronized Springboard (Already secured an individual quota at the 2023 FINA World Championships)

Celina Toth - Women's 10m Platform

Kate Miller (Melissa Citrini, if she hasn't retired yet) - Women's 10m Synchro Platform

Caeli McKay - Women’s 10m Platform, Women’s 10m Synchronized Platform (Already secured an individual quota at the 2023 FINA World Championships)

 

No Margo Erlam.

 

Equestrian (9) - Assuming our dressage team got the funding needed to compete at Pan-Ams, we should qualify a full team of 9 athletes. Don't feel educated enough to predict which athletes would make the team.

 

Fencing (14) - 

Jessica Guo - Women's Foil, Women's Team Foil

Eleanor Harvey - Women's Foil, Women's Team Foil

Sabrina Fang - Women's Foil, Women's Team Foil

Ruixen Zhao - Women's Epee

Pamela Brind'Amour - Women's Sabre

Maximilien Van Haaster - Men’s Foil, Men’s Team Foil

Blake Brozus - Men’s Foil, Men’s Team Foil

Eli Schenkel - Men’s Foil, Men’s Team Foil

Nicholas Zhang - Men's Epee, Men's Team Epee

Dylan French - Men's Epee, Men's Team Epee

Marc Antoine Blais Belanger -  Men's Epee, Men's Team Epee

Shaul Gordon - Men's Sabre, Men's Team Sabre

Fares Arfa - Men's Sabre, Men's Team Sabre

Francois Cachon - Men's Sabre, Men's Team Sabre

 

Alexanne Verret won bronze at a 2023 WC stop, confused on how low she is in the OQR... Don't know if Gabriella Page has retired, can't seem to find her in the rankings.

 

Field Hockey (0) - Both our men's and women's teams have been on a decline, don't see either qualifying.

 

Football (18) - Men's team missed their only chance at qualification last year. Women's team has a playoff against Jamaica on Sep 22 and Sep 26, to decide if they'll qualify for Paris. With Jamaica's dream run at the 2023 FIFA World Cup, and Canada's lackluster performance (failing to make it out of the group stage yet again), I'm not as confident as I was a couple of months ago. Still think they can do it though.  

 

Golf (4) -  Brooke Henderson and Maude Aimee Leblanc in the women's event, Corey Conners and Adam Svensson in the men's event. 

 

Gymnastics (13) - Women's team already qualified at the 2022 FIG Artistic Gymnastics World Championships

 

Artistic

Women’s Team - Ellie Black, Shallon Olsen, Emma Spence, Sydney Turner, and either Laurie Denoumee or Brooklyn Moors

Men's Team - Men’s Team - Felix Dolci, William Emard, Rene Cournoyer, Chris Kaji, Jayon Rampersad

 

Trampoline

Sophiane Methot - Women's Event

Sarah Milette - Women's Event

Jermey Chartier or Remy Aubin - Men's Event

 

Judo (7) - 

Kelly Deguchi - Women's -52kg, Team Event

Christa Deguchi - Women's -57kg, Team Event

Catherine Beauchemin Pinard - Women's -63kg, Team Event

Arthur Margelidon - Men's -71kg, Team Event

Francois Gauther-Drapeau - Men's -81kg, Team Event

Kyle Reyes - Men's -100kg, Team Event

Coralie Godbout - Team Event

 

Notably, Jessica Klimkait and Shady El Nahas miss out. 

 

Rowing (20-24) - Women's eight, and women's lightweight double sculls have already qualified through the 2023 Rowing World Championships. But our performance there was otherwise pathetic, so I'd be surprised if we qualify more than 3 boats at the Final Qualification Regatta.

 

Sailing (8) - Sarah Douglas already qualified Canada in laser radial through the 2023 Sailing World Championships. 

 

Sarah Douglas - Women’s Dinghy

Georgia Lewin-Lafrance/Antonia Lewin-Lafrance- Women’s Skiff

Fillah Karim - Men’s Dinghy 

Arie Moffat/Ryan Woods - Men’s Skiff

Nataliya Leshko - Women’s Kite 

Tom Ramshaw - Men’s Dinghy

 

Rugby Sevens (13) - Women's team qualified through the 2023 Ran Sevens Olympic Qualifier. Men's team lost to United States in the final, which pretty much ends their chances. Don't see them beating one (or two) of Great Britain and Spain at the Final Olympic Qualifying Tournament.

 

Shooting (1-3) - One or more of Madeline Boyd (women's skeet), Jason Caswell (men's skeet), Madelene Scola (women's trap), Lydia Kiejko (women's 10m air pistol/25m pistol), and Greg Sych (men's 50m rifle prone/50m rifle 3 positions). 

 

Skateboarding (4-5) - Don't think many of my fellow Canadians know who Cordano Russell is, but he's an up-and-coming talent in men's street, right in the mix for a quota. Ryan Decenzo should also qualify (would be his first Olympics), with the final spot going down to Matt Berger or Micky Papa. 14 yo. (!!) Fay Ebert is also currently in a quota position in women's park. Maybe Samantha Secours in women's street as well?

 

Sport Climbing (0-1) - Maybe Sean McColl in men's combined. 

 

Surfing (2-3) - Erin Brooks, one of the Olin sisters, and potentially Cody Young. 

 

 

Swimming (30) - 

Men (12)

Lorne Wigginton - 400m IM

James Dergousoff - 100m Breastroke

Finlay Knox - 200m IM

Josh Liendo - 50m Freestyle, 100m Freestyle, 100m Butterfly

Ruslan Gasiev - 100m Freestyle

Ilya Kharun - 100m Butterfly, 200m Butterfly

Javier Acevado - 100m Backstroke

Gabe Mastromatteo - 100m Breastroke

4x100m Freestyle Relay

4x100m Medley Relay

 

Women (18)

Kylie Masse - 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke

Maggie MacNeil - 100m Butterfly 

Penny Oleksiak - 100m Freestyle, 200m Freestyle

Summer McIntosh - 200m Freestyle, 400m Freestyle, 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 Butterfly

Katerine Savard - 100m Butterfly

Kelsey Wog - 100m Breastroke, 200m Breastroke

Taylor Ruck - 100m Freestyle, 200m Backstroke

Ingrid Wilm - 100m Backstroke

Tessa Cieplucha - 400m IM

Ella Jansen - 400m Freestyle

Sydney Pickrem - 200m Breastroke, 200m IM 

Alexanne LePage - 100m Breastroke

4x100m Freestyle Relay

4x200m Freestyle Relay

4x100m Medley Relay

 

One or two in the women's distance freestyles (800m/1500m) out of O'Cronin, Finlin, Bellio, and Dunford. 
 

Additional Relay Athletes: Rebecca Smith, Rachel Nicol, Yuri Kisil, Markus Thornmeyer, Jeremy Bagshaw, Stephen Calkins, Mary Sophie Harvey, Sophie Angus

 

Table Tennis (2) -

Eugene Wang in men’s singles, and Mo Zhang in women’s singles.

 

Taekwondo (3) -

Skylar Park - Women's -57kg (Through Olympic Rankings)

Nicolas Hoefling - Men's -58kg (Through Americas Qualification Tournament)

 

Along with one of Ashley Kraayeveld (women’s -67kg),  or Vivian Tranquile through the Americas Qualification Tournament

 

Tennis (9) -

Milos Raonic - Men's Singles

Felix Auger Aliassime - Men's Singles, Mixed Doubles

Denis Shapovalov - Men's Singles, Men's Doubles

Vasek Pospisil - Men's Doubles

Leylah Fernandez - Women's Singles, Mixed Doubles

Rebecca Marino - Women's Singles

Bianca Andresscu - Women's Singles 

Gabriela Dabrowski - Women's Doubles

Sharon Fichman - Women's Doubles (Assuming she's still injured, and hasn't secretly retired yet)

 

Triathlon (4) - 

Dominka Jamnicky - Women’s Event, Team Event

Emy Legault - Women’s Event, Team Event

Tyler Mislawchuk - Men's Event, Team Event

Charles Paquet - Men's Event, Team Event

 

Waterpolo (12-24) - Think our women's team will beat Greece in a placement game for the final quota at the 2024 FINA World Championships. Stupid US not doing us any favors  four years undefeated in international competition, only to be have that streak end at the 2023 FINA World Championships (Which also happened to be an Olympic Qualifier) and now we won't be able to qualify at the Pan Am Games. Men's team also has a chance, but if they can't do it at Pan Ams (where US will likely be their only opposition), then they likely won't qualify.

 

Weightlifting (2-3) - Maude Charron should qualify in women's 59kg, and potentially one (or two) of Maya Laylor in women's 81kg and Boady Santavy in men's 96kg?

 

Wrestling (6) -

Madison Parks - Women's 50kg

Karla Godinez - Women's 53kg

Ana Godinez - Women's 62kg

Linda Morais - Women's 68kg

Justina Di Stasio - Women's 76kg

Amar Dhesi - Men's 125kg 

 

Notably, Di Bacco, Wiecker, Stewart all miss out, due to the one quota limit per NOC. 

 

Volleyball (0-26) As much as I would love both volleyball teams to be at Paris, don't see either of them qualifying, as both are right on the cusp.

 

 

As for rhythmic gymnastics, modern pentathlon and handball 

 

 

Total Sports: 35-36

Optimistic Total Athletes: 388

Pessimistic Total Athletes: 331

 

Realistic Total Athletes: 350

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Josh

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

4 hours ago, Josh said:

Road

Leah Kirchmann - Women's Road Race, Women's Time Trial

Alison Jackson - Women's Road Race, Women's Time Trial

Hugo Houle - Men's Road Race, Men's Time Trial

Michael Woods - Men's Road Race

 

 

I think  got a 2nd quota for the men's time trial with a top 10 finish at the world champs, but the women didn't so they should only have 1 spot in the TT. 

[rybak 3,217]

If anybody is interested, I will try to post my predictions about Poland by end of this week

[Bulgaria87 77]

 Bulgaria

 

Athletics (4)

Bozhidar Saraboyukov - Men's long jump

Militsa Mircheva - Women's marathon

Tihomir Ivanov - Men's high jump

Plamena Mitkova - Women's long jump

 

Badminton (2)

Gabriela and Stefani Stoeva (Women's Doubles)

 

Boxing (7)

 

Javier Ibanez Diaz - Men's featherweight

Stanimira Petrova - Women's bantamweight

Svetlana Staneva - Women's featherweight

Jordan Morejon - Men's super heavyweight

Sevda Asenova - Women's flyweight

Daniel Asenov - Men's flyweight

Radoslav Rosenov - Men's lightweight

 

Canoeing (1)

Yoana Georigeva - Women's K1 500m

 

Fencing (1)

Yoana Ilieva - Women's sabre

 

Gymnastics (8)

Boryna Kaleyn - Rhytmic Gymnastics Individual

Stiliyana Nikolova - Rhytmic Gymnastics Individual

Women's Group all-around (5)

Eddie Penev - Artistic Gymnastics

 

Judo (3)

Mark Hristov - Men's 73kg

Ivaylo Ivanov - Men's 90 kg

Ivelina Ilieva - Women's 57kg

 

Rowing (2)

Desislava Angelova - Women's Single sculls

Kristian Vasilev - Men's single sculls

 

Shooting (3)

Antoaneta Kostadinova - Women's 25m pistol

Kiril Kirov - Men's 10m air pistol

Anton Rizov

 

Swimming (4)

Petar Mitsin - Men's 400m Freestyle, 800m Freestyle

Josif Miladinov - Men's 100m Butterfly

Lyubomir Epitropov

Gabriela Georgieva

 

Taekwondo (1)

Kalina Boyadzhieva

 

Tennis (1)

Viktoriya Tomova - Women's singles

 

Weightlifting (3)

Karlos Nassar - Men's 89kg

Bozhidar Andreev - Men's 73kg

David Fisherov/Hristo Hristov - 102kg

 

Wrestling (7)

Ramazan Ramazanov - Men's freestyle 74kg

Kiril Milov - Men's freestyle 97kg

Edmond Nazaryan - Men's Greco Roman 60kg

Semen Novikov - Men's Greco Roman 87kg

Evelina Nikolova - Women's freestyle 57kg

Bilyana Dudova - Women's freestyle 62kg

Yuliyana Yaneva - Women's freestyle 68kg

 

Total Sports: 14

 

Very Optimistic Number of Athletes: 55

 

Realistic Number of Athletes: 44-50

 

Athletes in above prediction - 47

Edited September 24, 2023 by Bulgaria87