How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Winter Olympic Games Beijing 2022?

[hckošice 15,121]

  On 1/22/2022 at 7:46 AM, Ted said:

MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOP TEN NATIONS(IN TERMS OF TOTAL NUMBER OF MEDALS WON):

 

Russia          34

Norway        30

USA              29

Germany      29

Canada        29

Sweden        25

France          23 

Switzerland  21

China            19

 

Honorable mentions: Austria, the Netherlands or even both may well find themselves in the top ten. They're poised to fare (very) well in any case and win 15+ medals each. Japan will also have a great Games by my calculations.

 

 

 

What do you think, guys? Feel free to comment.

 

 

 

 

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Not sure Russia will win 34 medals, I see them somewhere around 15-20. this is not CCCP anymore

[Ted 143]

  On 1/22/2022 at 8:44 AM, hckošice said:

 

Not sure Russia will win 34 medals, I see them somewhere around 15-20. this is not CCCP anymore

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Haha. No way are they going to win fewer than 20 medals. They have lots of really good medal prospects in many sports/disciplines. 

[hckošice 15,121]

  On 1/22/2022 at 9:10 AM, Ted said:

Haha. No way are they going to win fewer than 20 medals. They have lots of really good medal prospects in many sports/disciplines. 

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They had them also in PyeongChang

 

We´ll see, Maybe you are right, but I am not entirely convinced they can win so many

[LowerSaxony 205]

  On 1/22/2022 at 7:46 AM, Ted said:

MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOP TEN NATIONS(IN TERMS OF TOTAL NUMBER OF MEDALS WON):

 

Russia          34

Norway        30

USA              29

Germany      29

Canada        29

Sweden        25

France          23 

Switzerland  21

China            19

 

Honorable mentions: Austria, the Netherlands or even both may well find themselves in the top ten. They're poised to fare (very) well in any case and win 15+ medals each. Japan will also have a great Games by my calculations.

 

 

 

What do you think, guys? Feel free to comment.

 

 

 

 

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Are there some secret sliding events that I'm not aware of? If not, I'm not sure where 29 German medals should come from?

My predictions:

Luge: Will be harder to medal than in previous Olympics. I hope for one medal in each event (Women's Singles maybe 2), so 4-5 medals

Bobsleigh: Also one medal in each event, the 2-athlete-races may result in 2 German medals each. 4-6 medals

Skeleton: After 3 years of dominance during the Olympic cycle, the women somehow lost their dominance. Hopefully, we'll see the first German skeleton medal for a man. 0-1 medal.

Snowboard: Hopefully, one medal each in the PGS races and good chances in Men's SC. Hard to predict results here (except for Ledecka winning of course). We improved in the freestyle events over the last 4 years, but medals are unrealistic when the best North American athletes are present. 1-3 medals.

Nordic combined: Has been a powerhouse over the last decade, but it will be hard to get Individual medals this time as Riiber and Lamparter seem to be save bets for a medal. A team medal should be relatively save (even Gold is not unrealistic). 1-2 medals.

Ski jumping: Hard to predict without no foreign athlete ever made a jump in Beijing. Hopefully, Geiger and the Men's team are able to get a medal but that's far from being save. 1-3 medals.

 

Honestly, these are all realistic medal chances in terms of probability. Of course, surprises are always possible (Dürr or the men's speed team in Alpine skiing, men's Ski cross team, Hennig in CC skiathlon/10km, Men's hockey team, Biathlon men's relay) but they all are no favorites for winning a medal.

 

Counting the optimistic scenario's medals from above, Germany would end up with 20 medals.

However, there is a high possibility that Germany will fail to reach the threshold of 19 medals from 2014 which marks the historic low since reunification.

 

[dcro 10,210]

  On 1/22/2022 at 10:01 AM, LowerSaxony said:

Skeleton: After 3 years of dominance during the Olympic cycle, the women somehow lost their dominance. Hopefully, we'll see the first German skeleton medal for a man. 0-1 medal.

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Coach left the German women's team and was hired by Russia.

[LowerSaxony 205]

  On 1/22/2022 at 10:20 AM, dcro said:

Coach left the German women's team and was hired by Russia.

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True, but in 2020 already. Still says a lot about the importance of good coaches and about German sports: In relation to other big countries, Germany is not able to hire or keep the best coaches and this is only a matter of payment, resp. willingness for offer good payments. The result of this can be seen in the recent decline across (summer and winter) sports and, unfortunately, will continue.

[Ted 143]

  On 1/22/2022 at 10:01 AM, LowerSaxony said:

Are there some secret sliding events that I'm not aware of? If not, I'm not sure where 29 German medals should come from?

My predictions:

Luge: Will be harder to medal than in previous Olympics. I hope for one medal in each event (Women's Singles maybe 2), so 4-5 medals

Bobsleigh: Also one medal in each event, the 2-athlete-races may result in 2 German medals each. 4-6 medals

Skeleton: After 3 years of dominance during the Olympic cycle, the women somehow lost their dominance. Hopefully, we'll see the first German skeleton medal for a man. 0-1 medal.

Snowboard: Hopefully, one medal each in the PGS races and good chances in Men's SC. Hard to predict results here (except for Ledecka winning of course). We improved in the freestyle events over the last 4 years, but medals are unrealistic when the best North American athletes are present. 1-3 medals.

Nordic combined: Has been a powerhouse over the last decade, but it will be hard to get Individual medals this time as Riiber and Lamparter seem to be save bets for a medal. A team medal should be relatively save (even Gold is not unrealistic). 1-2 medals.

Ski jumping: Hard to predict without no foreign athlete ever made a jump in Beijing. Hopefully, Geiger and the Men's team are able to get a medal but that's far from being save. 1-3 medals.

 

Honestly, these are all realistic medal chances in terms of probability. Of course, surprises are always possible (Dürr or the men's speed team in Alpine skiing, men's Ski cross team, Hennig in CC skiathlon/10km, Men's hockey team, Biathlon men's relay) but they all are no favorites for winning a medal.

 

Counting the optimistic scenario's medals from above, Germany would end up with 20 medals.

However, there is a high possibility that Germany will fail to reach the threshold of 19 medals from 2014 which marks the historic low since reunification.

 

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Add to these 1 more medal in nordic combined, 1 in ski jumping, 2-3 medals in biathlon, 1-2 in alpine skiing, 1-2 surprise medals (XC skiing? speed skating?) and there you have it. OK, maybe not exactly 29 medals BUT somewhere in the mid-twenties.

[Styrka 209]

  On 1/22/2022 at 7:46 AM, Ted said:

MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOP TEN NATIONS(IN TERMS OF TOTAL NUMBER OF MEDALS WON):

 

Russia          34

Norway        30

USA              29

Germany      29

Canada        29

Sweden        25

France          23 

Switzerland  21

China            19

 

Honorable mentions: Austria, the Netherlands or even both may well find themselves in the top ten. They're poised to fare (very) well in any case and win 15+ medals each. Japan will also have a great Games by my calculations.

 

 

 

What do you think, guys? Feel free to comment.

 

 

 

 

Expand  

For , 23 is in the optimistic range, so thank you for being optimistic for us !

 

As written by @SalamAkhi, I guess a total close to 15 medals will be a good result. We're going to depend a lot on biathlon: and like many other sports, there is a bit of randomness in the results (especially, if I understood correctly, the races risk to be a lottery because of the wind?).

But we have a very strong team (my only fear is that Sweden's/Norway's team will be even stronger), so I will predict between 5-8, including 2-4 gold.

 

Figure Skating : Certainly our greatest chance of a gold medal (Papadakis-Cizeron), but also our only chance of a medal at all in ice sports. 1.

 

Alpine Skiing : A few chances with of course Pinturault (Combined & Giant Slalom), Noël (Slalom), Faivre (Giant Slalom) and Worley for the girls (Giant Slalom). Let's say 1-3, but I could only see Clément Noël winning one gold.

 

Cross-Country Skiing : We have to bet everything on the M team classical spint thanks to it being in freestyle style. One other medal (M relay, M mass start ?)  is a long shot. 0-1.

 

Snowboarding : Snowboard cross with Chloe Trespeusch for the girls, and Merlin Surget for the boys (but he's much more an outsider). But I think our biggest opportunity lies in the team event, thanks you Olympics for the diversity ! 1-2.

 

Freestyle Skiing : Much more optimism in this sport! Perrine Laffont will be one the favourite in W moguls, same for Tess Ledeux in W Big Air / W Slopestyle (but Eileen Gu will at home ! ), Antoine Adelisse in M Big Air, and of course our strong ski cross team in men event. A shame for the women that Marielle Berger-Sabbatel will not compete, and Alizee Baron seems injured too. Let's say 3-5, with 2-3 golds.

 

I'm not sure if I forget someone !

 

Pessimistic total : 11 (but 5 gold !?)

 

Optimistic total : 20 (8 gold)

 

My personal bet : 14 with 6 gold

 

[LowerSaxony 205]

  On 1/22/2022 at 10:33 AM, Ted said:

Add to these 1 more medal in nordic combined, 1 in ski jumping, 2-3 medals in biathlon, 1-2 in alpine skiing, 1-2 surprise medals (XC skiing? speed skating?) and there you have it. OK, maybe not exactly 29 medals BUT somewhere in the mid-twenties.

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Where can I sign? Of course, it's possible but not very realistic in my opinion.  2 Alpine medals and 3 Biathlon medals would be awesome ofc.

[Ted 143]

  On 1/22/2022 at 12:41 PM, LowerSaxony said:

Where can I sign? Of course, it's possible but not very realistic in my opinion.  2 Alpine medals and 3 Biathlon medals would be awesome ofc.

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A certain Mr Doll just won the biathlon mass start race in Italy.