Your 5 "safest" Gold Medal picks for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games

[Vic Liu 1,691]

 Table Tennis Men’s Team

 Table Tennis Women’s Team

 Weightlifting Women’s 87+kg Li Wenwen

 Weightlifting Women’s 87kg Wang Zhouyu

 Diving Women’s 3m Synchro

[phelps 8,282]

the are so many very predictable gold medals in these Games that really it's not worth the effort to amke a short list...

 

I think we're close to the 10% of events of the entire Games being "not that open/interesting/exciting" in terms of the Country taking the gold medal home in the end...

[MHSN 3,777]

1 hour ago, Vic Liu said:

I hope it true but there always some unexpected drama happen in OG so China never make it above 5 before. But I really hope they can make it this time.

well this year is a bit different, other countries are in trouble for different reasons and China had the luxury of picking 8 weightlifters from the pool of World Champions. I believe all of them will win the gold unless they bomb out.

[Orangehair43 285]

4 hours ago, intoronto said:

The only safe one is Russia in artistic swimming and rhythmic gymnastics. Amy non judged sports nothing is guaranteed.

And even in some of the judged ones Falls and Error’s are quite common.

[dcmdtruefan 40]

I would say all of China's athletes in women's weightlifting are safe picks for gold as well as China's men's and women's teams in Table Tennis

[OlympicsFan 860]

Pretty safe golds:

 

Swimming:

Ledecky (women’s 1500 free)

Titmus (women’s 200/400 free)

McKeown (women’s 200 back)

Australia (womens 400 free relay)

Peaty (men’s 100 breast)

Rylov (men’s 200 back)

Milak (men’s 200 fly)

GB (men’s 800 free relay)

USA (men’s medley relay and mixed medley relay)

 

Top 5 are probably: Australia in women’s 400/800 free relay, Peaty, Milak and Ledecky (1500 free)/Titmus (200/400 free)/McKeown (200 back)/GB (men’s 800 free relay)

 

Athletics:

Holloway (men’s 100 m hurdles)

Duplantis (men’s pole vault)

Crouser (men’s shot put)

Stahl (men’s discus throw)

Vetter (men’s javelin throw)

USA (men’s 4x100/4x400 m relay)

Miller-Uibo (women’s 400 m, if she runs it)

McLaughlin (women’s 400 m hurdles)

Mahuchikh (women’s high jump)

Rojas (women’s triple jump)

Jamaica (women’s 4x100 m relay)

USA (women’s 4x400 m relay)

Top 5 are probably: Duplantis, Crouser, Vetter, Rojas, USA in men’s 4x400 m relay/Stahl

[Fly_like_a_don 1,142]

My safe 5 apart from what has been added to 1st post :

 

  Neisi Dajomes - W 76kg Weightlifting (13kg difference is a lot) 

 

 Kuo Hsing Chun - W 59kg Weightlifting ( Should win by 25 - 30kg difference) 

 

 Yui Susaki - W50kg Wrestling. The only person who beat her by fluke was Miho Igarashi. 

 

 Johannes Vetter - Men's Javelin. Quite ahead of rest .

 

Hassan Yazdani - Men's 86kg Freestyle Wrestling 

 

 

[mpjmcevoy 375]

9 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

Pretty safe golds:

 

Swimming:

Ledecky (women’s 1500 free)

Titmus (women’s 200/400 free)

McKeown (women’s 200 back)

Australia (womens 400 free relay)

Peaty (men’s 100 breast)

Rylov (men’s 200 back)

Milak (men’s 200 fly)

GB (men’s 800 free relay)

USA (men’s medley relay and mixed medley relay)

 

Top 5 are probably: Australia in women’s 400/800 free relay, Peaty, Milak and Ledecky (1500 free)/Titmus (200/400 free)/McKeown (200 back)/GB (men’s 800 free relay)

 

 

I find your picks fascinating. I've noticed on the US centric SwimSwam site, that outside GBR, there seems an internationally shared complete confidence that the Brits are going to win the long relay (4 x 2 free), and an equally confident belief they have no chance of gold in the men's or mixed medley relays. you seem to reflect this.

 

IN GBR itself however, there is nothing like that confidence in the 4 x 200, although they recognise the potential, but they are quite worried about Russians, Aussies and Americans, while they seem to have real hope in the medleys where Peaty is seen as a huge trump card, even with Andrew, and the surge of both Greenbank and Kathleen Dawson are seen as gamechangers.

 

You may very well be right, but I find the difference in how the long relay and medley teams are seen in internal views of the GBR, and from the outside intriguing. For my money, Titmus in 200, Ledecky in 800 and 1500 and Peaty in 100 br are the only 'bankers' on this list. Rylov and Milak are big favourites, but not untouchable.

[Orangehair43 285]

50 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

I find your picks fascinating. I've noticed on the US centric SwimSwam site, that outside GBR, there seems an internationally shared complete confidence that the Brits are going to win the long relay (4 x 2 free), and an equally confident belief they have no chance of gold in the men's or mixed medley relays. you seem to reflect this.

 

IN GBR itself however, there is nothing like that confidence in the 4 x 200, although they recognise the potential, but they are quite worried about Russians, Aussies and Americans, while they seem to have real hope in the medleys where Peaty is seen as a huge trump card, even with Andrew, and the surge of both Greenbank and Kathleen Dawson are seen as gamechangers.

 

You may very well be right, but I find the difference in how the long relay and medley teams are seen in internal views of the GBR, and from the outside intriguing. For my money, Titmus in 200, Ledecky in 800 and 1500 and Peaty in 100 br are the only 'bankers' on this list. Rylov and Milak are big favourites, but not untouchable.

I think part of it is because Peaty is the most well known swimmer in the UK and therefore the most likely candidate in people eyes to win a relay gold for the first time since 1908. It is interesting  that while Britain might end up with 2 or even 3 golds in the pool total medals might be lower than the six won in 2016. 

[MHSN 3,777]

10 hours ago, Fly_like_a_don said:

My safe 5 apart from what has been added to 1st post :

 

Hassan Yazdani - Men's 86kg Freestyle Wrestling

I'm afraid this is far from being safe, he will probably bulldoze the rest but there is one guy, David Taylor who beat Yazdani twice before. some experts may even consider Taylor as the top favorite in this weight.

 

by my count Abdulrashid Sadulaev is the safest gold medal in men's wrestling. even though I hope someone with a very long name dethrones him