How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (Final Version)

[stefanbg 163]

For Bulgaria

 

Realistic: 2

Optimistic: 4

Pessimistic: 0

 

Biggest chance of a medal comes from women's wrestling. We also have slight chances in boxing, rhythmic gymnastic, pistol shooting, judo, weightlifting and karate. Overall, this is one of the weakest and smallest teams we have sent to the Olympics for ages.

[thiago_simoes 1,423]

Now that we have the final number of qualifiers for each nation, I'll update my predictions.

"Safe" medals
Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal
Athletics: 1 medal
Boxing: 1 medal
Judo: 1 medal

Sailing: 1 medal

Skateboarding: 3 medals

Sprint canoeing: 2 medals

Surfing: 2 medals
Volleyball and Beach volleyball: 2 medals

 

Likely, but definitely not easy:

Football: 1 medal
Taekwondo: 1 medal

Swimming and Open water swimming: 2 medals

 

Unlikely, but feasible medals

Cycling: 1 medal
Fencing: 1 medal

Slalom canoeing: 1 medal
Tennis: 1 medal

 

Nearly impossible medals

Archery: 1 medal

Table tennis: 1 medal

Wrestling: 1 medal

 

I'd say 15 medals is a realistic expectation. Some sports in the "safe medal" tier can earn more medals, like artistic gymnastics and judo, and even football can give us 2 medals, so 15 is a somewhat conservative but realistic number.

Our unofficial goal is reaching 20 medals, but for this to happen we'll need excellent performances in judo, artistic gymnastics and volleyball, and we'll need at least 2 medals in athletics and swimming. It's within reach, but I honestly don't expect this to happen anymore.

[sanjaydas 14]

Gold:

Elavenil Valarivan

 

Silver:

Amit Panghal
Elavenil Valarivan and Divyansh Panwar (10M Air Rifle)
Vinesh Phogat
Bajrang
Abhishek Varma
Archery XD
 

Bronze:

Deepika
Vikas
Mary
Lovlina
Men Hockey
Saurabh Chaudhury
Manu Bhaker and Saurabh Chaudhary (10M Air Pistol)
Ravi Dahiya

Deepak Kumar
Manu Bhaker

 

Dark horse:
Mirabai
PV Sindhu
Anshu
Kamalpreet Kaur
Neeraj Chopra

[dodge 1,024]

The headline gracenote figures are out. Don’t think they can be drilled down unless you’re a subscriber. 
 

https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/

[Orangehair43 251]

38 minutes ago, dodge said:

The headline gracenote figures are out. Don’t think they can be drilled down unless you’re a subscriber. 
 

https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/

The Press have access so some countries might report the figures. The BBC have a round up for the Uk and some international stars. 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57888185

 

 

And here are some other roundups. 
 

https://www.foxsports.com.au/tokyo-olympics-2021/olympic-games-tokyo-2021-live-latest-updates-covid-when-does-it-start-schedule-times-australia-aest-simone-biles-zach-lavine/news-story/7b0e4e3242a4b5650da3cf63251c4411?recommendedCount=0

 

https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/olympics-japan-projected-improve-medals-

082636257.html

 

https://www.eurosport.com/olympics/tokyo-2020/2020/tokyo-2020-team-gb-predicted-to-win-14-gold-medals-including-max-whitlock-adam-peaty-jade-jones_sto8426397/story.shtml
 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/olympics/125806764/tokyo-olympics-eight-golds-predicted-for-new-zealand-matching-their-record-haul-37-years-on

 

 

 

[Dragon 1,839]

2 minutes ago, Orangehair43 said:

The Press have access so some countries might report the figures. The BBC have a round up for the Uk and some international stars. 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/57888185

That's a strange mixture for GB of very optimistic in some sports, wildly pessimistic in others.

[hckošice 14,790]

33 minutes ago, Dragon said:

That's a strange mixture for GB of very optimistic in some sports, wildly pessimistic in others.

Pessimism is just a well informed optimism

[IoNuTzZ 305]

For Romania

 

Realistic: 4-6

Optimistic: 8-10

Pessimistic: 2-3

 

“Safe” medals

Rowing: W2x, W8,

 

Likely medals

Swimming: David Popovici (100 or 200 fly)

Wrestling: Alina Vuc

Rowing: M4-, W2-, LW2X

 

Unlikely

Shooting: Laura Coman

Artistic gymnastics: Larisa Iordache(beam)

Swimming: Robert Glinta (100 backstroke)

Wrestling: Albert Saritov

Table tennis: Women’s team, Mixed doubles

Athletics: Alin Firfirica

 

 

 

Nearly impossible

Artistic gymnastics: Larisa Iordache(all around), Marian Dragulescu(vault)

Fencing: Ana Maria Popescu 

Canoeing: C2 1000m

Tennis: Niculescu/Olaru

Cycling: Vlad Dascalu

Athletics: Florentina Iusco, Alina Rotaru

Wrestling: Alin Alexuc-Ciurariu

 

 

 

[Makedonas 2,133]

23 minutes ago, IoNuTzZ said:

“Safe” medals

Rowing: 3 medals(W2x, W8, W2-)

I wouldn't say W2- is "safe"

 

Second at this year's European Championships (behind Great Britain and barely ahead of Spain and Greece), third at the World Cup event (behind Spain and Ireland) and that's not including the top 4 from the 2019 World Championships (NZ, Australia, Canada, USA) who didn't compete at those events this year. Also not including the newly formed Danish team which features two former Olympic medalists (one from London and one from Rio).

 

I still think W2- for Romania can win a medal but at most it should be in the "likely" category, definitely not "safe"

 

However I'm surprised you didn't include LW2X at all, that's another chance for Romanian rowing in my opinion.

[dcmdtruefan 35]

For the United States , I believe team USA will be the only country to have more than 100 total medals, probably around the range 100-110, while winning 40-50 gold medals, securing the top sport of both the gold medal and overall medal tally counts. While the US may have some decline in their dominance in Swimming, the new sport events, including skateboarding and surfing will help out team USA maintain similar medal count figures to that of the past 20 years.

 

For Thailand , I expect them to win about 1-2 total medals with probably 1 gold medal from Panipak Wongpattanakit in 49 kg in women's taekwondo.  Prior to last week, I thought their was a chance that Thailand could win up to 3-4 total medals, but due to the withdrawal of Thitisan Panmot in men's boxing, 52 kg, that injury had a big hit on Thailand's medal chances. Badminton, women's golf, women's boxing and shooting could contend for medals, but need to overcome their psychological meltdowns to win a medal.  

 

While pro Thai fans would argue that the ban of its weightlifting team is the main cause of its potential lack of substantial success in this year's Olympics (It's nobody's else fault that they get caught doping), in my opinion, it is the lack of improvement in Olympic Sports as well as the decline of its economy along with its sociopolitical issues (These issues affect a country's performance because most countries are funded by the state government) are the main causes of its imminent failure. 

 

Since the start of the 2020 +1 cycle, Thailand has done poorly in Olympic sports competitions in the Southeast Asian (SEA) Games and Asian Games. In the 2017 and 2019 SEA Games, Thailand has finished third on medal counts for Olympic events, often lagging its main competitor, Vietnam, in key sports such as Swimming, Athletics and Gymnastics. In the 2018 Asian Games, Thailand finished 11th in the medal count, marking its first time that it fell of the top 10 since 1994. A bad performance in this year's Olympic would sum up the downward trajectory of the country's sports program. It is likely that Thailand would officially lose its no. 1 spot among Southeast Asian countries at the Olympics and considering the training/preparation difficulties during the pandemic, I would not be surprised if Thailand would not win any medal at all.