rafalgorka

New Balance Indoor Grand Prix, New York, NY, Feb. 13, 2021
 
Men's 1500m:
 Oliver Hoare (3:32.35)
Samuel Tanner (3:34.72) 
 
Men's High Jump:
 Trey Culver (2.33m)
 
https://www.worldathletics.org/competition/calendar-results/results/7147566

Kyriakopoulou DNS, she has some minor injuries right now. Stefanidi got 4.61 m and was second place. Her first time competing in the national indoor championships since 2005, and her first time not winning a competition in Greece since the 2011 national championships (outdoor). Stefanidi also announced today that she will not be competing at the European Indoor Championships or any other competition for the rest of the indoor season. I think it is a wise decision because she is obviously not doing too well at the moment and needs to focus on the outdoor season.
 
Also maybe it is obvious because of her name, but Polak is not an ethnic Greek. She was born and raised in Athens and is now married to a Greek, but her father is a Pole from New Zealand and her mother is Sri Lankan. Very interesting, she has ties to so many different countries!

Indian Race Walking Championships, Ranchi, Feb. 13, 2021
 
Men's 20km Race Walk:
 Sandeep Kumar (1:20:16)
 Rahul Rohila (1:20:26)
 
Women's 20km Race Walk:
 Priyanka Dubey (1:28:45)
 
https://www.worldathletics.org/competition/calendar-results/results/7161652

Eleni Polak has qualified in the women's pole vault. She won the Greek Indoor Championships today with a jump of 4.71 m. Greece now has three women qualified for the women's pole vault, with Ekaterini Stefanidi and Nikoleta Kyriakopoulou achieving the quotas in 2019.

I have a men's and women's single athlete qualifying for Azerbaijan.
Yeah, I was afraid that might happen in alpine (and cross-country) skiing. He's still listed as active on FIS which makes confirming status harder.
For Monaco I have one sled in 2-man and one sled in 4-man which gives four athletes since the driver is the same person.
 
It's about the same size as 2018 if you add in the women's ice hockey team.
 
Germany would also have the fourth largest team (behind US, Russia and Canada).

Well @rafalgorka, after my predictions for today it turned out that I'm only human ;-). I only predicted Golikova correctly. She skated a superb 500 meter, although she really was really lucky to be able to take advantage of her opponent at the intersection. Kok finished in the outside lane and could never profit from her opponent. But hey, Golikova deserved the win for sure.
 
The teampursuit was really close. Both winning teams know that Japan would have won, if they had participated. I think therefore the joy was not so great.
 
For tomorrow my predictions:
 
Mass start men: Bart Swings  
Mass start women: Irene Schouten  , if the Canadian ladies don't deliberately bother her again.
1000 men: Pawel Kulizhnikov  
1000 women: Brittany Bowe  . Very sure about this one, she has the ultimate draw. Inside finish against her biggest opponent, Jutta Leerdam.

You can’t judge whether Australia got „lucky“ or not, but it certainly is true that they had it way easier than many European countries.

Gretha Ferreira announced she has a baby due in August.
 
As of today, she was the only South African dressage rider with confirmed MER, so this puts their participation in uncertainty. Tanya Seymour, Laurienne Dittman and Nicole Smith have their chances to obtain MER, though.
 
Should they fail to get another MER athlete,  Diana Al-Shaer stands to gain a place for Palestine.

According to this, it is almost certain that South Korea will withdraw from dressage.
 
With Hwang Young-shik no longer aiming for Tokyo and Rio 2016 Olympian Kim Dong-seon retiring from sport last year, South Korea is left with a couple of amateurs with no realistic hopes of achieving MER. There is still some time left, though.
 
If Korea withdraws, Malaysia would receive a reallocation. It seems like Qabil Ambak is feeling pretty confident about this, as his horse Delatio got transferred back to Malaysia just before the horse nationality cut-off date on January 15th. Ambak himself has not competed the horse for over a year now.
 

I am not a big fan of winter sports, but I will try...
 
 
 Brazil
Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2022 Beijing
 
Ski Sports
 
Alpine Skiing  (2) - Usually we have at least one man and one woman competing. There is a guy with some potential.
 
Cross Country Skiing  (2) - Also, usually a man and a woman.
 
Ski Jumping  (0) - No way
Nordic Combined  (0) - No way
Freestyle Skiing  (0) - we had two athletes training for this sport for Sochi, but a terrible accident happened with one of them.
 
I think the other athlete participated at 2018, but I am not sure.
 
I dont know how it is now.
 
Snowboarding  (1) - Isabel retired, we have a young guy on cross. I dont know if he will be able to qualify for this Olympic.
 
Biathlon  (0) - I am not sure, but I believe that we dont have big chances here.
 
 
Skating Sports
 
Speed Skating  (0) - I dont know any athlete
Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - I dont know any athlete
Figure Skating  (1) - Isadora Willians probably will qualify again.
 
 
Sleigh Sports
 
Luge  (0) - I dont know any athlete
Skeleton  (1) - Nicole is in a great performance.
Bobsleigh  (5) - 1 women's monobob and I am expecting 4-man
 
 
Team Sports
 
Curling  (0) - we love curling here, but no way hahaha
Ice Hockey  (0) - we dont even qualify in Field Hockey hahaha
 
 
 
Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (12)
Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (5)
 
Total Realistic Prediction  -  (7)

may god hear you ! because that could only mean one thing, a very very veeery good thing happened at the end of august

I mostly looked at recent results and compared it to the sport's qualification system. I didn't keep tabs on specific people since for some sports it's done through nation rankings (and the project was ambitious enough already). I also assumed every nation will accept all their quotas (which likely won't happen).
 
For Poland the sport breakdown is...
 
Alpine Skiing - 3
Biathlon - 8
Cross-country Skiing - 7
Figure Skating - 2
Luge - 4
Nordic Combined - 4
Short Track Speed Skating - 4
Ski Jumping - 7
Snowboarding - 3
Speed Skating - 9

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
 
Albania - 1
American Samoa - 1
Andorra - 5
Argentina - 9
Armenia - 4
Australia - 34
Austria - 110
Azerbaijan - 3
Belarus - 38
Belgium - 18
Bolivia - 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
Brazil - 8
Bulgaria - 15
Canada - 206
Cayman Islands - 1
Chile - 3
China - 167
Colombia - 1
Croatia - 9
Cyprus - 1
Czech Republic - 114
Denmark - 3
Ecuador - 2
Estonia - 26
Finland - 98
France - 97
Georgia - 7
Germany - 181
Great Britain - 62
Greece - 5
Haiti - 1
Hong Kong - 3
Hungary - 13
Iceland - 5
Iran - 4
Ireland - 4
Israel - 4
Italy - 129
Jamaica - 1
Japan - 134
Kazakhstan - 31
Kenya - 1
Kosovo - 1
Kyrgyzstan - 1
Latvia - 61
Lebanon - 3
Liechtenstein - 6
Lithuania - 12
Luxembourg
Madagascar - 1
Malaysia - 2
Malta - 1
Mexico - 2
Moldova - 5
Monaco - 6
Mongolia - 2
Montenegro - 3
Morocco - 1
Netherlands - 42
New Zealand - 16
Nigeria - 2
North Korea - 2
North Macedonia - 3
Norway - 115
Pakistan - 2
Peru - 2
Philippines - 1
Poland - 51
Portugal - 2
Puerto Rico - 1
Romania - 21
Russia - 209
San Marino - 1
Serbia - 5
Slovakia - 48
Slovenia - 45
South Africa - 1
South Korea - 69
Spain - 13
Sweden - 117
Switzerland - 178
Chinese Taipei - 3
Thailand - 4
Timor-Leste - 1
Trinidad and Tobago - 1
Turkey - 6
Ukraine - 41
United States - 219
Uzbekistan - 1
Virgin Islands - 1

@CCB how did you know that??? ;-)))
Please don't share your tips for next events with us - YOU WILL SPOIL ALL THE FUN !!! ;-)
 
I'm joking, ofc ;-)

Very mixed, but obviously a lot of unhappy citizens as not all vulnerable received the vaccines yet.

21.02.11 VERSION
some new events added:
Biathlon Mixed Relay
Alpine Skiing M & W Super-G
Speed Skating W 3000m, M 5000m
M & W Snowboard Cross
 
Total 13 events out of 109
21.02.11 beijing day by day wch 21.docx

Don't think anybody said it here, but it has been confirmed, athletes testing positive will be excluded from the competition. It will be so 'fun'.

Today the Lithuanian Olympic team and candidates for Tokyo has been vaccinated from Covid as priority.
https://www.delfi.lt/sportas/kitos-sporto-sakos/prioritetine-tvarka-pradeti-vakcinuoti-lietuvos-olimpieciai.d?id=86458651

Any opinion from the public?

So close to finally getting a gold medal  

Meanwhile Sven Kramer has ended his season after his race in which he couldn't even come close to a decent performance due to a back injury.

ROMANIA  
 
Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2022 Beijing
 
Ski Sports
 
Alpine Skiing  (2-3) - Ania Caill(D, SG), and maybe another woman in S, GS; and one men  
Cross Country Skiing  (3) - 2 M and 1 W for sure (Paul Pepene, Petrica Hogiu and one woman)
Ski Jumping  (1) - maybe Daniela Haralmbie
Nordic Combined  (0) - No active competitors
Freestyle Skiing  (0) - No active competitors
Snowboarding  (0) - i don't think we have a chance to qualify in this discipline.
Biathlon  (6) - 1W (Chirkova, Cotrus or Marton) and maybe we can qualify our men's team (Puchianu, Coltea, Buta, Florea, Oskin)
 
Skating Sports
 
Speed Skating  (1) - Mihaela Hogas in 500m and maybe 1000m
Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - ...
Figure Skating  (1) - Maybe Julia Sauter
 
 
Sleigh Sports
 
Luge  (4-6) - We should qualify 1 participant in all events, maybe 2 Men's or Women's
Skeleton  (1) - 1M (Enache or Pacioianu)
Bobsleigh  (8) - We should qualify in all events (2W - Grecu, 2M - Tentea, 4M - Tentea, Monobob - Grecu or Popescu who is the Olympic Youth winner)
 
Team Sports
 
Curling  (0) - No chance.
Ice Hockey  (0) - No.
 
 
 
Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (35)
Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (20-22) 
 
Total Realistic Prediction  -  (26-28)

But they lost men's singles in luge which is a huge blow for them for sure. 

Germany with 12 medals through 6 events. I think it’s safe to say they dominate the sliding events.