JoshMartini007

Looking at New Zealand's internal criteria, it is likely they will decline the quotas obtained either here or at the Oceania qualifier so that opens up a chance for a Pacific nation to qualify, possibly Fiji or Palau. Of course, New Zealand would have decline before the final qualification tournament for it to be reallocated to Oceania.

Quite the group for the final qualifier. Loving the depth in rugby sevens. As much as I would like to see another upset it is hard to see or not winning the final spot.

Samoa is pretty weak in women's rugby sevens, to the point where they could realistically finish last in the final qualifier. is a better Pacific nation and that's not saying much either. Predicting rugby sevens is a fool's game, but I can use a laugh in a few months Let's see how far off I am...

(and ) could upset, but they will probably have to defeat two or maybe all three of to get the quota so chances are low.

The opportunity is there for Poland and they couldn't have asked for a better scenario. Not only did all the favourites manage to qualify directly to the Olympics, both Spain and Belgium failed to qualify here thanks to Czechia's performance at the European Games. No disrespect to Czechia as they have a similar golden opportunity and could take the quota themselves. China is the slight favourite going in, but the quota is definitely winnable for the European nations.

Samoa is one of the weakest entrants in the tournament. The quota will be between Poland, Czechia and China

Which means no quotas were awarded to Asia.

As a reminder, this event is a qualifier in archery (1 mixed team, 1 individual) and boxing (winner of each event) Australia and New Zealand will grab most of the quotas. New Zealand sometimes declines archery quotas so there's still an opportunity for a Pacific nation to qualify via reallocation. For boxing, we could see some Pacific nations walk away with gold, most likely Samoa's Ato Plodzicki-Faoagali

I've been keeping an eye on her for a while. I'm glad she's reached the cut, now she just needs to maintain her ranking. Another triathlete to watch is Margot Garabedian, she recently switched from France to Cambodia. She is currently ranked 177 and will likely go for one of the tripartite quotas. As long as she stays above 180 she will likely get it, there are two tripartite quotas available and the only other eligible athlete without a quota is Erica Hawley and I'm not 100% sure they want to give Bermuda a second quota since Flora Duffy will likely qualify naturally.

Yeah, whoever did it forgot to take into account that in time trials two nations from each continent must be present.

It's just another example of sport struggling, post-Covid/inflation. Before sport federations would join tournaments without securing funding expecting to get the money needed (either through investors, government or the players). Now they are finding out those sources are less likely to fund their trip, especially for Division III/IV teams which have no chance at qualifying to the Olympics.

Outside of athletics/swimming, the next best (unlikely) bet would be the African Sprint Canoeing Championships. Everything else would be quite a surprise. Maybe boxing at the Pacific Games or the African or Oceania sailing qualifiers.

We are down to 70 unqualified nations remaining. I've updated all nations and sports, adding/removing potential events. Let me know if I missed anything. Since most nations remaining are tripartite eligible (everyone except ) many of the predicted options rely on winning one of those quotas. Here's the breakdown by how many nations have a chance in each sport. Athletics - 63 Swimming - 61 Judo - 40 Boxing - 22 Weightlifting - 22 Taekwondo - 20 Shooting - 13 Canoeing - 11 Badminton - 10 Rowing - 8 Sailing - 8 Table Tennis - 8 Archery - 7 Tennis - 7 Wrestling - 7 Gymnastics - 5 Fencing - 4 Football - 4 Surfing - 4 Cycling - 3 Handball - 3 Basketball - 2 Equestrian - 2 Rugby Sevens - 2 Triathlon - 2 Artistic Swimming - 1 Golf - 1 Volleyball - 1 Water Polo - 1 Breaking - 0 Diving - 0 Field Hockey - 0 Modern Pentathlon - 0 Skateboarding - 0 Sport Climbing - 0 Unsurprisingly, athletics and swimming tops the list. Judo being third was expected. It is the easiest sport for a nation to qualify after athletics/swimming. Shooting being a bit low on the list despite having so many tripartite quotas likely means either many quotas will be reallocated or ISSF may change the rules and allow nations with no ranking points to be given the quota. Boxing, taekwondo and weightlifting are popular sports with some nations having a chance to qualify normally. Unfortunately a large set of nations will be left with nothing. On the low end six sports do not have any nations with a chance to qualify, most of which have tripartite quotas that will likely go unrewarded.

Team sports don't count for tripartite eligibility.

Never would have thought Canada would be the current champions for both men and women. Even if it only lasts for a few weeks.

Yeah Union players need some experience with Sevens or else they will be ran circles around. Raw talent can only go so far.

has qualified in archery (mixed team recurve)

No there have been archers which failed to reach the MQS and qualified to the Olympics. Even in the qualification document it says World Archery can grant exceptions if the federation can convince them that the athlete could reach MQS.

MQS in archery is more of a suggestion than an actual requirement.

defeated 24-21, that places them on the path to finish first in the group.

Yeah will almost always get a quota. I suspect will get one too should they not qualify normally.

It's been interesting. One thing you could do is try to predict future powerhouses (or weaknesses). For example, I imagine India will be a bit more prominent in the medal table, especially if they get to host 2036 or 2040.

is the big favourite, but so was South Africa in the African qualifier. Imagine if Samoa loses to , you'd have five core teams ( ) all fighting for one spot at the Olympics.

Pool A will consist of Australia and New Zealand. They will play each other four times and both will advance to the semifinals and play each other again. Group B and C will consist of nations eligible for Olympic qualification. The top two will advance to the Olympic qualifier semifinals. The winner will qualify to the Olympics and play against the winner of Australia/New Zealand. Pool A New Zealand Australia Pool B Fiji Tonga Cook Islands American Samoa Pool C Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Nauru

Pool A will involve teams not eligible for Olympic qualification. Top two advance to the semifinals where they will face each other. Pool B and C will consist of eligible nations, the winners will advance to the semifinals where they will play each other for Olympic qualification. Loser goes to the final repechage tournament. The second place teams in Pool B and C will play each other for the second spot in the repechage tournament. Pool A New Zealand Fiji Australia Niue Oceania Barbarians Pool B Samoa Solomon Islands Cook Islands American Samoa Tuvalu Pool C Tonga Papua New Guinea Vanuatu Kiribati Nauru