JoshMartini007

There are no tripartite invitations in road cycling

I wonder how far down the line we'd need to go to award the quotas in a few months

I really hope they make the Olympics this time, after missing out due to FIBA's qualification rules.

There's still a non-zero chance World Archery will change the Olympic rules for the Netherlands. Though I think this time too many people called them out too quickly.

With the group stage over here's how each continent performed. Federation Win Draw Loss Points Percent AFC 7 1 10 22 40.74% CAF 5 3 4 18 50.00% CONCACAF 3 5 10 14 25.93% CONMEBOL 3 2 4 11 40.74% OFC 1 1 1 4 44.44% UEFA 19 8 9 65 60.19% Unsurprisingly, Europe is the best performing continent with 8/12 nations advancing to the round of 16. More surprising is Africa being the second best continent where the teams obtained 50% of the total possible points and 3/4 nations advance to the round of 16. CONCACAF was the worst performing continent by quite a bit though in their defense, they did qualify two extra teams via the play-offs. However, even removing Haiti and Panama they would still finish last, but with a more comparable 38.89%

Rules are rules. You could argue that France eliminated a nation which could have gotten the Olympic quota. Of course France could still finish 4th and render the whole thing moot.

Wouldn't be the first time World Archery ignored their qualification document. Sometimes they correct it, other times they just roll with it.

qualified in women's javelin throw.

Nah, they'll add the 50m events first, more medals.

Thanks For they are quite far behind in the rankings and track cycling doesn't offer any tripartite spots. competed at the world championships so I thought they are eligible. For women's soccer, I've added the top nations. If someone listed pulls off the upset in the second round, I'll add them.

For baseball/softball and cricket, the IOC could create a category where if the host nation has the venues it can add them to the games (with an appropriate increase of athletes if they appear) and if they do not then they are left off. Not ideal, but I don't think we should force nations to build such huge stadiums that won't get any use after the games. The risk of such a category is there might be a push for other venues to get the same treatment. Track cycling and golf is an obvious risk. Canoe slalom maybe, but the cost of the venue is a lot less, even if it is event specific. Regardless we probably don't want to open that can of worms

Overall Canada is looking pretty good in the relay department for 2024. 6/7 are pretty much guaranteed while the men's 4x200m freestyle relay is in an okay position. They may need to come to Doha to secure the spot.

Most sports don't cost too much to host, about half of them can be done in what I call "generic indoor venues" which all major cities have. The major problem is the spectator requirements imposed by the sport federations and the IOC. Many major cities have multiple venues which seat 1000-5000 people, but a lot of sports want something bigger. Additionally you have outdoor sports like road cycling and triathlon where very little infrastructure is required.

Italy is pretty good at converting their chances (also in other sports), the risk is they are also very close to regress back to the mean should their luck run out.

They did the draw before the play-off matches. They assumed Chinese Taipei or Papua New Guinea would win so made the spot restricted against Asian and Oceania teams.

Looks like most countries have agreed with the order in the mixed 4x100m freestyle relay. M-M-F-F order was used in 30 of the 31 top nations with only South Africa being the exception

If they want to add sports then they need to expand the athlete quota. Very simple. Also none of this 5-6 entrant team sports. 12 teams or bust.

I know it's due to quota limitations, but the team events at the Olympics should be expanded to 12 (obviously the individual spots would expand too). No event in the Olympics should be any smaller than 12 entrants.

Sjöström*

currently in a Olympic qualifying position in the men's 4x200m relay It likely won't last going into the 2024 World Championships.

Just did a major update to the first post. We have gone into more detail, now each nation (except Russia as they are too big) has a list of which events they have a chance to qualify in. I welcome all suggestions. Remember, unlikely is okay, near-impossible is not.

European women are having a bad time. Collectively, they have only won 3/33 medals so far while the men have 17/37

We should do a comparison against the Latest World Championships Medal Table, if they aren't any more accurate then doing basic counting of defending champions then their method isn't good.

Their predictions are based on previous results, richer nations tend to compete more often in world cups/series events so their rankings are inflated.

Pudar with the top seed. It would be huge for Bosnia and Herzegovina if she could medal