Epic Failure

The thing is that there's no really objective way of doing this. Everybody views things differently. Some people just view the reigning world champ as automatically favourite. For others it is the world number 1 (not always the same person as the world champ). Some people take a longer view and look at performance over time. Others will make judgement based on 'gut'. None of those methods is objectively correct. The world champion one might be the closest, but even that is open to outside things - for example what if someone missed those world champs through injury but is fit here? And then there's just form and fitness during the competition itself.

It's almost like not all events are equally predictable, isn't it?

You mean the move with about 32 laps to go, when the US pulled back up to us and promptly sat on our wheel, contributing nothing? Again, the fact that we were always on the front of the group is not an accident. It's because one of 2 things - 1) nobody had the legs or 2) nobody wanted to work with us.

They were the quality in that field, which is why they got silver with the most sprint points won. Getting a lap in a race like that is both skill and luck. I'm sure they are beyond disappointed with silver. But they fought hard for that silver.

They had a mega sprint at the end which got them the 10 points for silver. Ahead of the Dutch who had gained a lap. Does anyone maybe think that part of the reason why we were constantly on the front in the bunch and then maybe dropping a point in the sprints is because nobody else wanted to work with us? If you think that other teams wouldn't have immediately chased any real attacks for a lap from us, you're kidding yourself. If we weren't pulling back some of the attacks even more poor teams could have stolen a lap. And then no matter how strong we might be, we wouldn't be on the podium. I feel like some of you have never really watched cycling and it shows.

Clearly not nothing, is it? Or do silver medals not count any more?

Christ almighty, you lot are a bunch of misery guts aren't you? They were one good lap from the Italians away from gold. Silver is nothing to be sniffed at in a madison.

Danes and the US both have solid teams out but the others are surprisingly weaker than I expected.

Choong 3 pts and Brown 4pts off the final qualifying place going into the run.

LJ is about even, on both SB and PB. Nafi is about 15m better on javelin PBs, Kat 6 seconds on 800m PBs. If both were to record slight PBs in all 3 events tomorrow, Nafi would win by about 150 pts. Obviously, there's a lot of ifs in there. I doubt the team management would see finishing 6th or 7th as a disaster. A disappointment, sure, but not a disaster. Especially if it were to come down to, say, 1 gold to make that difference. I think they would point to the number of total medals and the placing table as a defence and say it was just a case of narrow margins.

FWIW (not much) - of those still active in remaining competitions - I had the following in my predictions coming into the Games. Gold Finucane - W Sprint Bronze W 4x100m Relay KJT - W Heptathlon Muir - W 1500m W 4x400m Relay Choong - M Modern Pentathlon Carlin - M Keirin Outside Shots (expected 4th to 8th) M 4x100m Relay W Madison Carlin - M Sprint Pardoe - M Open Water Roberts - M Boulder & Lead Duet Artistic Swimming Pattison - M 800m M 4x400m Relay M Madison Williams/Kothari - M 10m Platform McGowan - W +67kg Taekwondo Cunningham - M +80kg Taekwondo Evans - W Omnium French/Bryson - W Modern Pentathlon Campbell - W +81kg Weightlifting Very Outside Shots Anning - W 400m Reid - W 3m Spring MacArthur - M Boulder & Lead Hall/Hull - W Golf McNiece - W Boulder & Lead

So, today's results mean we've equalled the total number of medals from Beijing, and passed their total top 8 finishes by my (very amateur) calculations. Still got around 25 medal shots of varying degrees of likelihood left.

Sinden has pulled out of his bronze medal bout -

They haven't got official targets but the sports and UK Sport have apparently discussed them - apparently each sport has outlined their own internal targets, per this article - https://www.skysports.com/olympics/news/15234/13175218/paris-2024-olympics-uk-sport-expects-team-gb-to-win-at-least-50-medals-and-top-five-finish-in-medal-table

Insane is the word I'd use. Shame for Ethan. Think his legs might be have been okay, but think his race smarts are rusty - he kept missing the important moves.

Well that was fun. Ethan's approach very different to Laura's heartattack strategy. Think Thomas got lucky there, probably should have been eliminated a few riders earlier.

And here was me going to suggest that Katy "falls" into Andrews. Your plan is probably better. I've seen enough Keirins go wrong to not get my hopes up though.

He's doing a Pogacar!

Sometimes those riders benefit from more fancied riders watching each other and giving them leeway. The points on offer and the length of the points race mean that it tends to get valued more than the others. These are the results from Tokyo. Notice that Thomas came 2nd in the first 2 events, then missed the podium. Also notice that the guys in 2nd and 3rd had fewer points that Ethan has right now. I'm not saying that Ethan is somehow assured of a medal or that those other riders might not be on better form. I'm just saying that I've been watching Omniums for about 30 years (admittedly the format has changed from when I started, but still...) and I've seen considerably more improbable performances than would be needed for Hayter to get on the podium.

It's easier said that done. Not all riders are treated equally. Some will be allowed to go off because they are perceived to be not a threat. Others will be marked very closely. Not a great race, but he saved his effort for the sprint at the end to salvage something. He's not out of medal contention yet.

As long as he's in with a shout going into the points, all good. Viviani and Gate need a big ride here.

That's a confusing choice of language. Makes it sound like she lost. Also, it's Keirin. I before E doesn't apply here.

That's usually good for quick cycling!

Aldridge gets gold!

What, the scratch? It's very easy. First cross the line wins, unless you are a lap ahead. Ethan came 6th. Which is a fine performance. The 4 who took the lap are obviously in pole position but also will have expended more energy.