Epic Failure

Rutter sits joint top overnight, with a 2 point cushion still. There's only 7 people total on the 72/75 or better, so if even one of those were to miss one shot tomorrow, even dropping 3 for Rutter would still have her in a shoot off right now. Nothing decided but definitely a good position to be in at this stage.

I definitely think there's a benefit to experiencing the conditions, no doubt. But as I've said elsewhere, there's also risk - you could lose in that SF. Whereas Wilson knew she had a medal wrapped up whatever happened, which is not nothing. I also think the wind delays hugely influence things. Also, whilst Wilson was clearly the favourite, she won 8 out of 14 races in the series, so it wasn't like she was unbeatable. Don't get me wrong, I'm as frustrated and disappointed for her as anyone. And I agree that there should be some tweaking done, and I'd have no problem with a more traditional format being used.

In fairness, Wilson was guaranteed a medal by qualifying first. I know that's not what she wanted but it is a *big* reward anyway. Had she had to go through the QF and SF she might have got used to the conditions but she might also have made the mistake and bounced out early. Which would have been even more frustrating. I'm not saying that I think that the format is perfect. But I think there can reasonably be argued to be some benefits for the competitors, as well as some negatives.

The format of the race in BMX didn't change. The amount of jeopardy did. The sailing slightly more changes, but the race is still the same distance. It is just fewer people. It's also possible that some of the other athletes might have managed their effort better throughout the week. Also, if we are going to criticise the format changes, we have to acknowledge that we've benefited from it with Hales upgrading his second after qualifying to gold. If we just want to start awarding based on consistency, we might as well just award medals to the athletes who are world ranked no. 1 and not even bother with the races here.

Rutter finally misses with her 72nd shot. But that's her only miss and she's sitting at the end of day 1 with 74/75. Still lots to go but whatever happens she'll end day 1 in an finals spot.

I mean, she guaranteed herself a medal from that series. At least she has a fixed reward from that. If she was in the earlier races - even as the top seed - she could have made the same mistake and missed the final. A la Shriever.

Hester puts in a 76-something. Barring a disaster for Fry and a miracle last round from the Dutch, that's probably a medal sorted. Colour remains to be determined.

Men's medley qualify comfortably enough, although are probably a fly swimmer away from a medal. Women miss out. Disappointing but not surprising. Both Back and Fly are just not there right now, so it was always going to be an uphill battle.

In fairness, doesn't sailing sometimes get postponed for too much wind? I'm sure I've seen that happen. Could have done it in the Channel as well, that's where we did it. After 2 rounds, Rutter has a 2 shot buffer. Still very early days though.

Hinchliffe is such an exciting prospect.

So 3G, 2S and 3B. Safe to say a return to form from the rowers.

Yep. Only Olympic shouting medal awarded.

It's important to remember that a quicker stroke doesn't always mean a cleaner stroke. Also some crews prefer to sprint, others prefer a constant pace. At the end of the day, if you have got your effort right, you'll have exhausted it by the end of the race whichever way you prefer.

Turns out you don't need your finishing sprint if you sprint out of the gate.

Archery: Does Havers get at least one set point? No Artistic Gymnastics: Do GB win at least one gold today? No Athletics: Do we get a RELAY medal? No Boxing: Does Richardson win? No Canoe Slalom: How many Brits avoid the repechage? 4 Cycling Road: Do GB win a medal? Yes Equestrian: Do GB win a medal? Yes Hockey: Do GB avoid defeat? No Golf: Is FLEETWOOD in a medal position at the end of the day? Yes Sailing: Does WILSON win gold? Yes Shooting: Is Rutter in the top ten at the end of the day? Yes Swimming: Do we get a RELAY medal? No

I suspect Tom will be slightly disappointed. Not in relation to Leon or Duncan but there was a bronze up for grabs there. Still, 5th is a solid performance. Pleased for Katie and Honey. Those are both fine performances in a tough event. The pool is obviously not going to have the golden shine that Tokyo had. But we're still at 1G and 4S which is a perfectly respectable haul, with small chances of adding to it in the men's relay, the women's 200m IM, women's 50m free and women's relay in that order. Shame for Beth, she had her one bad start of the week and got caught in the pack. Wonder if the longer hold at the start spooked her. Just under halfway through the competition and we're firmly on track to be somewhere in the 50s total medal wise. I reckon we have 87 medal shots left in my patented Fail-o-meter, ranging from the Keely down to some much more speculative ones. For reference, the medals we've got thus far have been from 65 medal shots.

I'm not sold on the repechages as a system but equally fastest losers is a flawed system and no fastest losers increases jeopardy for a faller etc. I guess from the perspective of WA if their goal is to try and get the best 8 in the final, this set up is more likely to achieve that. I'm not sure there is a perfect system. The one advantage of this system is that every athlete gets to compete twice at a Games, I guess.

Kye Whyte goes down hard in race 2 of the BMX, he's been struggling with a back knock and has been off pace all week because of it.

Bit harsh on Carvell to call him a 2nd-rater, especially given his age! Would like to have seen what he could have done on the London/Paris tracks!

Nice Q in a NR there. The US will be away and gone but there's a minor medal up for grabs there. It'll be a dog fight though, especially if Bol and Kaczmarek are added (as you assume they will be).

Charlie Carvell had to pull out with an injury. Hope he goes well, still young and inexperienced. Only one of Dobson and Anning can come in if we Q.

Perzamanos makes the final. In 7th with only one athlete left who could overtake him (final is top 8).

I have him in my "outside contenders" bracket (which is people I expect to be roughly 4th-8th). He was 5th last year at the Worlds. So a medal would be a bonus, if not a complete shock.

Probably Gigolo, Isabelle Werth's horse in the dressage.

I think that's an interesting point about the psychology of it all and what difference that might make. You could well be right about that. But, of course, maybe she *is* getting everything out of her body and this is just her way of controlling her emotions to ensure she puts out the best that she can. Personally I'm not convinced that body language etc matters that much. I've seen KJT look miserable but still perform and I've seen countless sprinters look like they could fight the world and then trail in last. But I do agree that it could matter somewhat.