I don't think Olympicsnell was *expecting* a gold in the road race. They were using that as an example of the events which are a lottery and which can determine whether this is a 'good' Olympics or a 'great' Olympics.
Hell, the BMX racing is another one. Shriever has looked great but the event has so many crashes that you wouldn't expect a gold from it, even if you have a strong contender. You can easily get taken out even if you do nothing wrong. It's not like, say, swimming, where the chance of being taken out should be pretty low.