How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2018 version)

[hckošice 14,790]

Everything from zero to 6 as usual

 

Matej Tóth and the C1 canoe slalom (whoever will qualify) should be the safest bets I assume.

+ there some real chances but they may perfectly finish without medals as well ofc like Jana Dukátová in Women´s Canoe slalom K1, Jakub Grigar in Men´s Canoe Slalom K1, Canoe Sprint medal is also possible even if the better option of the K4-1000m has been definitely cut, but a medal in the K4-500m should in a perfect day work too for our crew, the Mixed Trap thing in shooting can be also a possible shot for us,

and the last but not least we all know which title is Peter Sagan still missing...

[bestmen 2,808]

it's too early , how can you predict without the list of the qualified athletes ?

[phelps 7,664]

let's see how Italy could place if the Games were about to start right now...

 

Archery: 1-2 medals (we have a shot in at least 4 of the 5 events -the 3 team competitions and also in the men's individual event- but I guess we should be very happy with a couple of tallies...men's team being the brightest chance)

Athletics: 1 medal (women's 20km race walk)

Badminton: -

Basketball: -

Boxing: 2-3 medals (Mesiano and Testa among the girls should be among the medal candidates, then the men's team is rebuilding, but we still have 2-3 good fighters...the problem is that they need a very lucky draw to get to the medal stages)

Canoeing slalom: hopefully 1 medal (we have some good athletes in both men and women's K1, but we should be realistic and 1 medal would be already a good success)

Canoeing sprint: 1 medal (if Tacchini continues to improve and WADA do their job properly, he has some good chances in the men's C1...maybe not for gold, but he could be on the podium for sure)

Cycling road: 2 medals (Italy can't start in a cycling road race without the ambition of winning at least a medal...and we also have some good bikers who could actually do it)

Cycling track: 5 medals (both team pursuit races, both omnium events, women's madison )

BMX: -

Mountainbike: -

Diving: 2 medals (if Cagnotto & Dallapè are seriously back, otherwise...no chance)

Equestrian: -

Fencing: 13 medals (there's no reason we shouldn't aim to get a medal in each and every fencing event, with the women's individual foil going for 2 at least...obviously we won't get that far, but the target is there for sure)...

Field hockey: -

Football: 1 medal (finally I hope we're going to make amend for all the past mistakes and go for the gold in men's football)

Golf: -

Rhythmic gymnastics: 1 medal (the group event should give us some satisfaction after Rio's disappointing outcome)

Trampoline: -

Artistic gymnastics: -

Handball: -

Judo: 3-5 medals (Basile, Marconcini, Manzi among the boys and Giuffrida, Gwend, Galeone among the girls should be a good insurance)

Modern pentathlon: 1 medal (I hope our youngsters who dominated the junior ranks in the past few years would be ready in time for Tokyo)

Rowing: 3-4 medals (coxless pair and four and the double sculls -both senior and lightweight)

Rugby: -

Sailing: 1-2 medals (women's RS:X, mixed Nacra more than others)

Shooting: 6-7 medals (all clay target events could -should- give us at least one medal, then Zublasing could eventually make up for her Rio disappointment...and if Campriani gets back at elast in the Air Rifle events...well, these could be 2 more big chances)

Swimming: 6-7 medals (Paltrinieri -men's Open Water 10k, 1500m and 800m- & Detti -1500m, 800m and 400m- should do the most of the damage, then we should have also 2 or 3 more chances with Quadarella -women's 1500m- Martinenghi/Scozzoli -men's 100m breastroke- and the girls of the Open Water 10k...then if Pellegrini makes up her mind about the 200m Free, that's could be one more big chance)

Synchronized swimming: -

Table tennis: -

Taekwondo: - (we have a lot of good young guns, but I think Tokyo will come too early for them...maybe Vito Dell'Aquila is the only real shot already in 2020...but frankly I'd be rather surprised to see any Italian on the podium)

Tennis: -

Triathlon: -

Volleyball (and Beach Volleyball): 2 medals (both men's and women's team must at least start to win a medal, even if it's not realistic that both would succeed...then Nicolai & Lupo in men's beach volley)

Water polo: 2 medals (and they should be 2 "heavy" medals)

Weightlifting: -

Wrestling: 1 medal (Frank Chamizo in the men's freestyle...and always in the men's freestyle, maybe even Kudiamagomedov -if he gets the Italian passport in time- could be a pleasant surprise)

Surfing: -

Skateboard: - (we have some amazing young talents, but I don't think we'll be allowed to steal the show to the traditional powerhouses of this activity -Brazil and USA)

Sport Climbing: - (too soon to call...the new Olympic format could -should- mess things up and it's all to be seen what's gonna be the effect on the best specialists of the 3 traditional SC disciplines...however, I don't think Italy has too many chances of a medal)

Karate: 3-4 medals (both Kata events -whoever will be our man/woman in that competition + Busà, Marino, Maresca, Cardin, Semeraro in the Kumite events...all of them could be real medal threats in Tokyo...if they manage to qualify -with the strict rules they have set for this first Olympic appearance of Karate, the qualification pathway will be a lot more difficult than winning a medal once in Tokyo)

Total: it's well above the 50 medals...of course it will neve happen that we're gonna win them all...but those are all realistic hopes...let's say that we should be very happy with our "classic" 30 medlas (10 or more of them being Gold)...

but I'm sure that this time we have the potential to do a lot better than in recent past...

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 2 Stunden schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

1) Because she was not 100%, recovering from injury (again), making her 2017 results the only ones really worth to be considered.

 

2) Yes, thank you...

1) Thanks, but i still don't get it. You assume that she would have been better otherwise, which is fine, but how do you know that ... :

a) ... Grabosch was in top shape when they met in 2017? You are taking her as a reference, but Grabosch exploded since the last world championships, improving her flying lap time by about 0.25 seconds.

b) ... Gros would have shown the same development as Grabosch without the injury? Grabosch is training with Vogel every day, while Gros doesn't have any athlete who is even remotely world class to train with (correct me if i am wrong).

In addition to that even Grabosch was chanceless against Vogel and i doubt that it would have looked much different if she would have had to compete against Ligtlee, Morton, Marchant or James in top shape. Why do you think that she will end up better than at least 3 out of Marchant/Morton/James/Vogel/Ligtlee? None of them will be even 30 by the 2020 olympics, so they are unlikely to get worse. I am not saying that Gros can't medal, i just don't see any reason to think that she is that much of a talent that she is bound to do it. You assume it because she won 3 golds at junior worlds and set a junior world record, shortly before her 18th birthday? Grabosch also won 3 individual golds and set multiple junior world records. Vogel won 6 golds at junior worlds, she won gold in the sprint and the 500 m time trial as a 16 year old, so what makes Gros such a special talent?

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 1 Stunde schrieb phelps:

let's see how Italy could place if the Games were about to start right now...

 

Archery: 1-2 medals (we have a shot in at least 4 of the 5 events -the 3 team competitions and also in the men's individual event- but I guess we should be very happy with a couple of tallies...men's team being the brightest chance)

Athletics: 1 medal (women's 20km race walk)

Badminton: -

Basketball: -

Boxing: 2-3 medals (Mesiano and Testa among the girls should be among the medal candidates, then the men's team is rebuilding, but we still have 2-3 good fighters...the problem is that they need a very lucky draw to get to the medal stages)

Canoeing slalom: hopefully 1 medal (we have some good athletes in both men and women's K1, but we should be realistic and 1 medal would be already a good success)

Canoeing sprint: 1 medal (if Tacchini continues to improve and WADA do their job properly, he has some good chances in the men's C1...maybe not for gold, but he could be on the podium for sure)

Cycling road: 2 medals (Italy can't start in a cycling road race without the ambition of winning at least a medal...and we also have some good bikers who could actually do it)

Cycling track: 5 medals (both team pursuit races, both omnium events, women's madison )

BMX: -

Mountainbike: -

Diving: 2 medals (if Cagnotto & Dallapè are seriously back, otherwise...no chance)

Equestrian: -

Fencing: 13 medals (there's no reason we shouldn't aim to get a medal in each and every fencing event, with the women's individual foil going for 2 at least...obviously we won't get that far, but the target is there for sure)...

Field hockey: -

Football: 1 medal (finally I hope we're going to make amend for all the past mistakes and go for the gold in men's football)

Golf: -

Rhythmic gymnastics: 1 medal (the group event should give us some satisfaction after Rio's disappointing outcome)

Trampoline: -

Artistic gymnastics: -

Handball: -

Judo: 3-5 medals (Basile, Marconcini, Manzi among the boys and Giuffrida, Gwend, Galeone among the girls should be a good insurance)

Modern pentathlon: 1 medal (I hope our youngsters who dominated the junior ranks in the past few years would be ready in time for Tokyo)

Rowing: 3-4 medals (coxless pair and four and the double sculls -both senior and lightweight)

Rugby: -

Sailing: 1-2 medals (women's RS:X, mixed Nacra more than others)

Shooting: 6-7 medals (all clay target events could -should- give us at least one medal, then Zublasing could eventually make up for her Rio disappointment...and if Campriani gets back at elast in the Air Rifle events...well, these could be 2 more big chances)

Swimming: 6-7 medals (Paltrinieri -men's Open Water 10k, 1500m and 800m- & Detti -1500m, 800m and 400m- should do the most of the damage, then we should have also 2 or 3 more chances with Quadarella -women's 1500m- Martinenghi/Scozzoli -men's 100m breastroke- and the girls of the Open Water 10k...then if Pellegrini makes up her mind about the 200m Free, that's could be one more big chance)

Synchronized swimming: -

Table tennis: -

Taekwondo: - (we have a lot of good young guns, but I think Tokyo will come too early for them...maybe Vito Dell'Aquila is the only real shot already in 2020...but frankly I'd be rather surprised to see any Italian on the podium)

Tennis: -

Triathlon: -

Volleyball (and Beach Volleyball): 2 medals (both men's and women's team must at least start to win a medal, even if it's not realistic that both would succeed...then Nicolai & Lupo in men's beach volley)

Water polo: 2 medals (and they should be 2 "heavy" medals)

Weightlifting: -

Wrestling: 1 medal (Frank Chamizo in the men's freestyle...and always in the men's freestyle, maybe even Kudiamagomedov -if he gets the Italian passport in time- could be a pleasant surprise)

Surfing: -

Skateboard: - (we have some amazing young talents, but I don't think we'll be allowed to steal the show to the traditional powerhouses of this activity -Brazil and USA)

Sport Climbing: - (too soon to call...the new Olympic format could -should- mess things up and it's all to be seen what's gonna be the effect on the best specialists of the 3 traditional SC disciplines...however, I don't think Italy has too many chances of a medal)

Karate: 3-4 medals (both Kata events -whoever will be our man/woman in that competition + Busà, Marino, Maresca, Cardin, Semeraro in the Kumite events...all of them could be real medal threats in Tokyo...if they manage to qualify -with the strict rules they have set for this first Olympic appearance of Karate, the qualification pathway will be a lot more difficult than winning a medal once in Tokyo)

Total: it's well above the 50 medals...of course it will neve happen that we're gonna win them all...but those are all realistic hopes...let's say that we should be very happy with our "classic" 30 medlas (10 or more of them being Gold)...

but I'm sure that this time we have the potential to do a lot better than in recent past...

If France takes the football tournament seriously, then i see no chance for Italy there. Germany is rather weak in the category of players born in 1997 or later, so that should be no problem for Italy.

France could play with talents like Dembele, Hernandez, Mbappe, Aouar, Upamecano or Augustin.

Sadly England won't compete, they seriously could have challenged for gold with guys like Rashford, Sessegnon, Foden or Sancho.

France usually messes up the qualification tournaments, so who knows ... ?

Brazil usually takes the olympic football tournament very seriously and they don't have any major international tournament that year, so they could be really strong as well that year with guys like Jesus, Malcolm or Vinicius Junior.

[De_Gambassi 1,223]

il y a 42 minutes, OlympicsFan a déclaré:

1) Thanks, but i still don't get it. You assume that she would have been better otherwise, which is fine, but how do you know that ... :

a) ... Grabosch was in top shape when they met in 2017? You are taking her as a reference, but Grabosch exploded since the last world championships, improving her flying lap time by about 0.25 seconds.

b) ... Gros would have shown the same development as Grabosch without the injury? Grabosch is training with Vogel every day, while Gros doesn't have any athlete who is even remotely world class to train with (correct me if i am wrong).

In addition to that even Grabosch was chanceless against Vogel and i doubt that it would have looked much different if she would have had to compete against Ligtlee, Morton, Marchant or James in top shape. Why do you think that she will end up better than at least 3 out of Marchant/Morton/James/Vogel/Ligtlee? None of them will be even 30 by the 2020 olympics, so they are unlikely to get worse. I am not saying that Gros can't medal, i just don't see any reason to think that she is that much of a talent that she is bound to do it. You assume it because she won 3 golds at junior worlds and set a junior world record, shortly before her 18th birthday? Grabosch also won 3 individual golds and set multiple junior world records. Vogel won 6 golds at junior worlds, she won gold in the sprint and the 500 m time trial as a 16 year old, so what makes Gros such a special talent?

 

If anything: She started track cyciling in 2014 only, two years later she was a double junior world champion.

 

I thaught you wanted to postpone this discussion ?

 

 

[phelps 7,664]

1 ora fa, OlympicsFan ha scritto:

If France takes the football tournament seriously, then i see no chance for Italy there. Germany is rather weak in the category of players born in 1997 or later, so that should be no problem for Italy.

France could play with talents like Dembele, Hernandez, Mbappe, Aouar, Upamecano or Augustin.

Sadly England won't compete, they seriously could have challenged for gold with guys like Rashford, Sessegnon, Foden or Sancho.

France usually messes up the qualification tournaments, so who knows ... ?

Brazil usually takes the olympic football tournament very seriously and they don't have any major international tournament that year, so they could be really strong as well that year with guys like Jesus, Malcolm or Vinicius Junior.

 

France beat Italy in 2016 sub-19 Euro-final

Italy beat France in 2017 sub-20 world cup eightfinals

imho, France have a lot of talent, but they are not as good as they could be as a team...more in general, I also think they are overestimated as individuals...for example, Mbappè is physically stronger than Cutrone, but as an all-round forward (and even as a pure striker) the young Italian is way better (and Mbappè is estimated over 100 million €, meanwhile Cutrone isn't even always a starter for AC Milan...mysteries of football)...

moreover, they usually mess things up in qualifiers and the sub-21 final tournament is here in Italy...there are many things that should go against the French...

I totally agree about England...

and for what concerns Brazil...they finally got what they wanted, the Olympic Gold (and they got it at home) last time round...so, I'm not even sure they will qualify (they were not at the sub-20 world cup last year)...things in South America can be very complicated for them when they don't play at home (and there are only 2 spots available)...

 

however, as I wrote, Italy should start with ambitions, not that this means we're going to get anything (even if I'm sure that this time we have enough quality to get some success)...

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 6 Minuten schrieb phelps:

 

France beat Italy in 2016 sub-19 Euro-final

Italy beat France in 2017 sub-20 world cup eightfinals

imho, France have a lot of talent, but they are not as good as they could be as a team...more in general, I also think they are overestimated as individuals...for example, Mbappè is physically stronger than Cutrone, but as an all-round forward (and even as a pure striker) the young Italian is way better (and Mbappè is estimated over 100 million €, meanwhile Cutrone isn't even always a starter for AC Milan...mysteries of football)...

moreover, they usually mess things up in qualifiers and the sub-21 final tournament is here in Italy...there are many things that should go against the French...

I totally agree about England...

and for what concerns Brazil...they finally got what they wanted, the Olympic Gold (and they got it at home) last time round...so, I'm not even sure they will qualify (they were not at the sub-20 world cup last year)...things in South America can be very complicated for them when they don't play at home (and there are only 2 spots available)...

 

however, as I wrote, Italy should start with ambitions, not that this means we're going to get anything (even if I'm sure that this time we have enough quality to get some success)...

Cutrone is WAY BETTER than Mbappe? WHAT? Sorry, but ... this can't be your honest opinion. Italy has some nice talent, but none of them is anywhere near the talent level of Mbappe or Dembele (maybe expect for Donnarumma).

I get that some of your predictions are only semi-serious (5 medals in track cycling, 13 medals in fencing), but this is on another level.

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 54 Minuten schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

If anything: She started track cyciling in 2014 only, two years later she was a double junior world champion.

 

I thaught you wanted to postpone this discussion ?

 

 

Yeah, i thought it was in your interest to postpone it, because there are no results that support your opinion for now, but if she does well at the next worlds, i am willing to change my opinion. For now there is nothing that supports the idea that Gros is a medal favorite or maybe even a lock for a medal at the next olympics.

[phelps 7,664]

Adesso, OlympicsFan ha scritto:

Cutrone is WAY BETTER than Mbappe? WHAT? Sorry, but ... this can't be your honest opinion. Italy has some nice talent, but none of them is anywhere near the talent level of Mbappe or Dembele (maybe expect for Donnarumma).

I get that some of your predictions are only semi-serious (5 medals in track cycling, 13 medals in fencing), but this is on another level.

 

yes, to me Cutrone is a great player...he can get things out of nothing and he has a great sense of the net (in this he reminds me a lot the best Filippo Inzaghi)...

Mbappè is only physical power...he's definitely overestimated (as they are most of the Frenchmen, who have the big advantage to get ready at a younger age than most of their counterparts, especially the Italian players, who normally don't get any attention and playing time when they're still in the early twenties)...

 

about medals...

as I wrote, they are not predictions..they are "targets"...and it's obvious that we won't win all of them (I also wrote it), but still we have a shot (sometimes a close one, other times a remote one)...

p.s. look at last week's worlds in track cycling...we won bronze in 4 of those 5 races -both pursuit, the men's omnium and the women's madison- and we were 4th in the other...so, I don't think aiming at 5 medals is something weird nor semi-serious...

p.p.s. and Ganna (individual champion and leader of our men's team pursuit) didn't even peak for this event...he's already looking at the Paris-Roubaix on the road (his words)...